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Many shoppers say they plan to spend less this Black Friday as the cost-of-living crisis bites. Shoppers in Europe plan to spend almost one-fifth less during this year's annual discount period as inflationary pressures weigh on consumer sentiment, according to research from Boston Consulting Group this month. That could see retailers extend their discounts across the month, increasing buying opportunities for consumers who have the money to spend. Indeed, shopping scams rose by 34% following last year's Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, according to Barclays research. Davis urged consumers to be extra vigilant when shopping online and avoid making rushed or panicked decisions out of "fear of missing out."
Aaron Chown - Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. growth has lagged the world's biggest economies since the Covid-19 pandemic and is substantially below the OECD average, according to a new report from the influential Paris-based group. In the G-7 nations — which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.S. and U.K. — GDP has grown by a cumulative 2.5%, with only the U.K. recording a decline. Former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders this week told CNBC Hunt's plan had a "massive" hole where an economic growth strategy should be. 'Light at the end of the tunnel'Tuesday also saw the release of the OECD's global Economic Outlook report. Pereira told CNBC: "We are facing a very challenging environment.
And for financial markets it begs the question as to whether the extent of the monetary or fiscal tightening currently assumed will ever actually happen. The OBR reckons UK consumer price inflation has now peaked and will back off to a full-year rate of 7.4% next year. But assuming standing market forecasts for energy prices and BoE rates, it then sees inflation fall below zero for eight quarters from the middle of 2024. The BoE also expects headline inflation to plummet into 2024 - and its 'fan chart' of the range of possible outcomes also has an outside chance of deflation then too. Delaying spending cuts until after an election won't help much in that regard if indeed they're seen necessary at all.
LONDON — As the U.K. government announces a £55 billion ($65.5 billion) program of tax hikes and spending cuts, the country faces its sharpest fall in living standards since records began. The cumulative decline of 7.1% between 2021-22 and 2023-24 would reduce RHDI to its lowest point since 2013-14, erasing eight years of growth. Average household income per head is only expected to recover its 2018-19 level in 2027-28. Unemployment is also expected to rise by 505,000 from 3.5% to peak at 4.9% in the third quarter of 2024. The OBR projected that real wages will fall by 1.8% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023 before recovering to grow by an average of 1.3% per year thereafter.
He froze until 2028 a threshold at which employers start to pay social security contributions, which will cost companies more. Public spending would grow more slowly than the economy but rise in overall terms, he said. It now expects gross domestic product to contract by 1.4% next year compared with its projection in March for growth of 1.8%. The OBR forecasts GDP growth of 1.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, compared with previous forecasts of 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. Thursday's forecasts by the OBR showed that target would be met in the 2027/28 financial year.
Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.
U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt is set to announce a sweeping package of tax hikes and spending cuts in his Autumn Statement as he seeks to plug a gaping hole in the country's public finances. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, in his hotly anticipated inaugural Autumn Statement, outlined around £30 billion in spending cuts and £25 billion in tax hikes. "Unfunded tax cuts are as risky as unfunded spending," Hunt told the House of Commons. "We must continue a relentless fight to bring (inflation) down, including a rock-solid commitment to rebuild our public finances," Hunt said. The finance minister also confirmed that the energy industry will be hit with an expanded windfall tax of 35% up from 25%.
Britain's budget: What you need to know
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt will bury Britain's failed "Trussonomics" experiment on Thursday by cutting spending and raising taxes, moves that he and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak say are needed to restore investor confidence. He has warned of "tough but necessary" measures in the budget on top of the reversal of most of the unfunded tax cuts promised by former Prime Minister Liz Truss and which rapidly brought her down. * Britain's economy is still below its pre-COVID size and is probably already in recession, with 11% inflation creating a cost-of-living crisis. * "We need fiscal and monetary policy to work together" to beat inflation, Hunt will say. * The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will report on the state of public finances after Hunt speaks.
LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The pound rose for a third day against the dollar on Thursday ahead of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget full of "tough but necessary" measures to control inflation. Against the euro , sterling has only risen by around 6% since late September and by 9% against the yen. Benchmark 10-year gilts are around 3.3%, their lowest since mid-September, just before Truss and Kwarteng released their budget. Typically, this would have dragged on the pound, given the lower yield advantage it affords investments in sterling. Adding an extra element of risk on Thursday, are the economic forecasts of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which did not release any kind of breakdown of the impact of Truss' budget in September.
U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Autumn Statement on Thursday, and is expected to announce a slew of tax rises and spending cuts as he attempts to plug a substantial hole in the country's public finances. Hunt will also be hoping to reassure the market of the country's fiscal credibility under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government, after the chaos unleashed by former leader Liz Truss' disastrous "mini-budget" in late September. The Bank of England has projected that the U.K. is at the beginning of its longest recession on record, and the Office for National Statistics confirmed on Friday that GDP contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022. Thursday's statement will be accompanied by a long-awaited set of projections from the U.K.'s independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and following the Bank of England's grim outlook a couple of weeks ago, economists expect a similarly bleak picture to emerge.
We're going to see spending cuts," Hunt told the BBC on Sunday, while also promising the government would deliver a new and more focused plan to help with household energy bills beyond April. First, an increase in council tax with local authorities allowed to raise the level of council tax above 3% without a referendum," Raja said. "And second, an increase in both the duration and scale of the windfall tax on oil and gas 'excess profits'." Spending cuts, again executed via "stealth," could take the form of "nominal cash freezes to departmental budgets," Raja said, with spending budgets topped up minimally going forward. "If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal tightening.
Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski lost his seat to Republican Thomas Kean Jr. in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District. The state's 7th District covers all of Hunterdon County and sections of Warren, Morris, Somerset, Union, and Essex Counties as well. NJ-07NJ-03NJ-05 HouseDemocratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski lost his seat to Republican Thomas Kean Jr. in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in a rematch of the 2020 election, where Malinowski defeated Kean by just over one percentage point. 2022 General EmbedsNew Jersey's 7th Congressional District candidatesThis race was a rematch of 2020, when Malinowski defeated Kean by about 5,000 votes — or 1.2 percentage points. What experts sayThe Cook Political Report rates New Jersey's 7th Congressional District race as "lean Republican".
Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski looks to retain his seat in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District against Republican Thomas Kean Jr. The state's 7th District covers all of Hunterdon County and sections of Warren, Morris, Somerset, Union, and Essex Counties as well. New Jersey's 7th Congressional District candidatesThis race is a rematch of 2020, when Malinowski defeated Kean by about 5,000 votes — or 1.2 percentage points. Thomas H. Kean, Sr.Voting history for New Jersey's 7th Congressional DistrictThe state's 7th District covers all of Hunterdon County and sections of Warren, Morris, Somerset, Union, and Essex Counties as well. What experts sayThe Cook Political Report rates New Jersey's 7th Congressional District race as "lean Republican".
Nov 6 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt plans to set out on Nov. 17 up to 60 billion pounds ($67.82 billion) of tax rises and spending cuts, including at least 35 billion pounds ($39.56 billion) in cuts, the Guardian reported on Sunday. Citing a Whitehall source, the newspaper said the figures remained estimates and subject to change, but that Hunt had told staff he was looking for at least 50-60 billion pounds' worth of measures in his autumn statement. Responding to a Reuters request for comment, the Treasury said it does not comment on speculation around fiscal events. Early drafts of the statement to be delivered on Nov. 17 contain plans for up to 35 billion pounds of spending cuts and up to 25 billion pounds of tax rises, likely to include freezing income tax thresholds and targeting dividend tax relief, the Guardian report said. ($1 = 0.8847 pounds)Reporting by Jaiveer Singh Shekhawat in Bengaluru; Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The civil rights organization alleged that the state’s rollout of federal dollars has favored whiter communities, even as Jackson has struggled to comply with state and federal guidelines meant to protect drinking water quality. The NAACP’s federal complaint raises concerns about a loan program overseen by the state Department of Health that distributes federal funding to communities to improve their water systems. Problems with water billing and collections have also resulted in Jackson missing out on sorely needed revenue that could go toward repairs. The EPA’s inquiry comes just days after the launch of a congressional investigation concerning the city’s water crisis. Reps. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., and Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., have asked Reeves to answer a series of questions about how the state has spent or plans to spend federal funds that can upgrade water systems in the state.
LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The screeching about-turn on tax cuts by finance minister Jeremy Hunt on Monday will not spare Britain from painful spending cuts and new tax hikes to fix the country's public finances. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, said Monday's tax cuts U-turn was relatively simple compared with the balance Hunt must strike between more tax increases and spending cuts over the next two weeks. Hunt said the tax U-turns announced so far would raise about 32 billion pounds a year in extra revenues. That was 40 billion pounds above the level needed to cut debt as a share of the economy which currently is about 97%. "With tens of billions of spending cuts still to come, and a new energy support package needing to be devised, many of Jeremy Hunt's tough choices still lie ahead," Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said.
The former foreign and health minister was appointed on Friday after Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, her close ally. Under the new policy, most of Truss's 45 billion pounds of unfunded tax cuts will go and a two-year energy support scheme for households and businesses - expected to cost well over 100 billion pounds - will now be curtailed in April. Hunt said halting the planned tax cuts would raise 32 billion pounds ($36 billion) every year. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File PhotoBut the response from bond investors who would fund the tax cuts was violently negative and borrowing costs surged. After scrapping one of the tax cuts, Truss fired Kwarteng on Friday, saying she accepted her plans had gone "further and faster" than investors were expecting.
Hunt, appointed on Friday to fix the public finances after Truss's economic plan hammered the value of British assets, said the country needed to generate confidence and stability before it could seek to grow the economy. He said changes to planned tax cuts would raise 32 billion pounds ($36 billion) every year. While he had been expected to reverse some of the tax cuts, the change to the energy support scheme had been unexpected. Truss had announced a two-year subsidy scheme to support households and businesses through the period of surging energy prices, costing 60 billion pounds in six months. Hunt would still deliver a fuller medium-term fiscal plan as scheduled on Oct. 31, alongside forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury said.
"The chancellor will make a statement later today, bringing forward measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan that will support fiscal sustainability," the finance ministry said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSterling was up about 1% against the dollar in trading in Asia. Hunt met Truss over the weekend to overhaul her original economic proposals. No chancellor should seek to do that," the former foreign and health minister told BBC television in an interview broadcast on Sunday. Goldman Sachs said on Sunday it expected Britain's economy to shrink by 1.0% in 2023, a more severe contraction than its previous forecast of a 0.4% shrinkage, as Truss's tax cuts were reversed.
Massive fiscal U-turn leaves UK in political funk
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
By the tax year ending in April 2027 this should help the government claw back 32 billion pounds of the 45 billion pounds a year Kwarteng and Truss had planned. Beyond that, the scheme, which the government had estimated might cost some 60 billion pounds over six months, will become less generous. The pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar while yields on 10-year UK government bonds declined by nearly 45 basis points. But they remain at 12-year highs, suggesting that the UK has much to do to regain credibility with global investors. Government spending cuts will also be required to narrow a hole in public finances that the Sunday Times reported was as big as 72 billion pounds ($81 billion).
LONDON — Sterling rose against the dollar on Monday morning after new U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced he would deliver parts of his medium-term fiscal plan later in the session. The pound was up nearly 1% to $1.1288 by early Monday morning, extending gains after the statement from the U.K. Treasury. The decision follows a dramatic day in British politics on Friday, which included big fiscal U-turns from Prime Minister Liz Truss and the sacking of Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Hunt said over the weekend that his priority as finance minister is growth, much like his predecessor, but he highlighted it would be "underpinned by stability." U.K. bonds saw a sharp sell-off and the pound hit a record low in the days afterward.
[The stream is slated to start at 6 a.m. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] New U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt is announcing parts of his medium-term fiscal plan, bringing forward the policy statement in an effort to calm financial markets. The announcements Monday would come two weeks ahead of schedule. However, the full medium-term fiscal plan is still set to be published on Oct. 31, accompanied by a forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility — something that was lacking in the original mini-budget announced on Sept. 23 which roiled U.K. bond markets.
'The recession has begun' The U.K. is the only G-7 economy not to have re-attained its pre-pandemic GDP level by the second quarter of 2022, Citibank Chief U.K. The ONS said GDP was only just returning to its pre-pandemic level, highlighting the challenge facing Prime Minister Liz Truss' "growth, growth, growth" agenda. "We now believe the recession in the U.K. has begun in the third quarter of 2022 and will likely last for three quarters. "The cost of living crisis is having a detrimental effect on individuals, not only financially, but physically and mentally too." Members of the CWU (Communication Workers Union) also continue to strike, including 115,000 postal employees of former state monopoly Royal Mail.
Kwarteng said the new date for his medium-term fiscal statement would allow the independent Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR) enough time to assess updates to official data and for a full forecast process to take place. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaks during Britain's Conservative Party's annual conference in Birmingham, Britain, October 3, 2022. Junior Treasury minister Andrew Griffith said market practitioners he had spoken to received news of the new date for the fiscal statement warmly. HALLOWEENThe new date for the fiscal plan leaves Kwarteng and Truss with little more than two weeks to settle divisions in her cabinet over cuts to government spending. Truss was no longer expected to appoint Antonia Romeo to run the Treasury, the FT said, citing senior government figures.
Mel Stride, a lawmaker who chairs the Treasury Committee in the lower house of parliament and had criticised Scholar's departure, said the appointment would help reassure investors. The moves came as Kwarteng prepared to head to Washington this week with International Monetary Fund criticisms of Britain's new policy direction ringing in his ears. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaks during Britain's Conservative Party's annual conference in Birmingham, Britain, October 3, 2022. Kwarteng said the new date for his medium-term fiscal statement would give the independent Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR) enough time to carry out a full forecast. The new date for the fiscal plan leaves Kwarteng and Truss with little more than two weeks to settle divisions in her cabinet over cuts to government spending.
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