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LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The latest bid by the world's leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers. The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes. The Common Framework platform introduced by leading G20 nations in 2020 aimed to bring all creditors, including China, together and streamline negotiations. Anna Ashton, director of China research at Eurasia Group, said this week’s developments underscored the benefits for China to give some ground on some of its concerns. "China is a difficult partner to talk to but we need China at the table for the solution of debt problems, because otherwise we won't see any progress," Lindner said.
IMF dashes hopes of growth rebound
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The International Monetary Fund may have just hammered the final nail in the coffin of a complete economic rebound. With downside risks dominating its outlook, the IMF’s estimates dash any remaining hopes of a full recovery from recent years’ shocks. The shortfall between actual growth and expected growth reached 1 percentage point in 2022. Put simply, the world economy will probably never regain the growth trajectory it had before the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s a harsh reversal from recent hopes of a V-shaped recovery and a soft landing.
Minneapolis CNN —US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the American economy remains strong and its banking system is resilient despite some recent turmoil among regional financial institutions. “I believe our banking system remains strong and resilient; it has solid capital and liquidity.”She added that the “US economy is obviously performing exceptionally well,” noting solid job creation, moderating inflation and robust consumer spending. “So I’m not anticipating a downturn in the economy, although of course that remains a risk,” she said. The global economy remains in a better place than many have expected, she said. “[During the G20 meeting in February], I said that the global economy was in a better place than many predicted last fall,” Yellen said.
WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday called for quicker action to resolve several outstanding sovereign debt restructuring cases and urged the International Monetary Fund to press all bilateral creditors to finalize such deals. The Treasury said Yellen raised the issue during meetings with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calviño, who heads the IMF's steering committee, ahead of next week's IMF and World Bank spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank. "Secretary Yellen urged the IMF to deepen its efforts to support low- and middle-income countries facing debt distress, including by continuing to press all bilateral official creditors to finalize outstanding debt restructuring cases," the IMF said in a statement. It added that Yellen discussed with Georgieva and Calviño priorities for the IMF and World Bank meetings, recent developments in the global economy and financial system, and the need to continue support for low-income and vulnerable countries. Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Leslie Adler and Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
CNN —Sri Lanka on Monday secured a much-anticipated loan of about $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the South Asian nation navigates its worst financial crisis in decades. The deal, nearly a year in the making, will aim to “restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability” and “unlock Sri Lanka’s growth potential,” the IMF said in a statement. In July last year, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka is “bankrupt,” adding negotiations with the IMF were “difficult.”Monday’s loan approval will provide much-needed respite for the nation as it faces an uphill climb to revive its flailing economy. The IMF will immediately disburse an initial $333 million to Sri Lanka, with more funds to follow in the coming months. “For Sri Lanka to overcome the crisis, swift and timely implementation of the EFF-supported program with strong ownership for the reforms is critical,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement.
In January, the IMF projected that Russia’s economy would expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% the next. Georgieva told CNN that Russia’s economy would suffer over time as workers emigrated and access to technology was cut off, and as sanctions on its vast energy industry took a toll. Yet according to Georgieva, it’s essential policymakers don’t ease up on interest rate hikes prematurely, lest prices soar again. The Fed slowed the pace of rate hikes last month, but Powell indicated in testimony to Congress Tuesday that the central bank may need to turn hawkish again. The Fed “would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes” if necessary, he added.
He was referring to the tens of billions of dollars in bailouts his country has received from the wealthy Gulf monarchies over the past decade. Many of those assets have long been under the control of Egypt’s military, an economic behemoth and the backbone of Sisi’s power. This time, however, Gulf Arab allies – especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – want to see returns. Last year alone, Gulf states pledged $22 billion to Egypt as it faced an economic crisis caused partly by the fallout from the Ukraine war, Reuters reported. Analysts say that Egypt was pushed by Gulf states to accept the IMF’s conditions, especially those on privatization.
IMF’s outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true
  + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The international body recently estimated that Russia will avoid a recession in 2023 and expand by 0.3% after shrinking by 2.2% in 2022. The measures will not “significantly” affect Russia’s oil exports, the Fund says. That is a matter of intense debate among economists since oil prices remain below the cap set by the G7. Much will depend on the evolution of oil prices this year. But only a serious oil price rally, improbable in the context of the global economy’s “subpar growth” - to quote the IMF - could justify looking at Russia through rosy glasses.
Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports. Long lines are forming at gas stations as prices swing wildly in the country of 220 million. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, recently dropped to new lows against the US dollar after authorities eased currency controls to meet one of the IMF’s lending conditions. The country has been spending more on trade than it has brought in, running down its stock of foreign currency and weighing on the rupee’s value. Pakistan's usually bustling ports, like this one in Karachi, have ground to a halt as the country grapples with a severe shortage of foreign currency.
London CNN —The global economy will weaken this year as rising interest rates and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on activity. The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it now expects global growth will slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023. The IMF now forecasts growth in China will rebound to 5.2% this year, notably higher than its previous estimate. Global inflation is forecast by the IMF to ease from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. “This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened,” Gourinchas wrote.
Creative green finance can go a long way in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
PARIS, Jan 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rich democracies are increasingly keen to help the Global South fight climate change. Though they will struggle to write big cheques, there are ways to make a little cash go a long way. The good news is rich countries have ways to get money flowing without dipping much into their own pockets. One plan is for multilateral development banks (MDBs) to use their balance sheets more aggressively to fight climate change. Rich countries should therefore put more capital into those MDBs that show the most enthusiasm for the task.
Why Egypt is asking its people to eat chicken feet
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Nadeen Ebrahim | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +17 min
Abu Dhabi CNN —Egypt’s economic situation is so dire that the government is asking people to eat chicken feet. In Egypt, chicken feet are seen as the cheapest of meat items, considered by most as animal waste rather than food. After the recommendation to switch to chicken feet, the price of one kilogram of the product reportedly doubled to 20 Egyptian pounds ($0.67). But those firms don’t operate like private companies, enjoying special privileges without disclosing their financial data to the public. Experts have questioned why international creditors had not leveraged their loans to drive Egypt’s military out of the economy.
Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Malawi are all in talks on some type of IMF financing. Countries' debt burdens have risen. Turning to the IMF for financing has been the traditional playbook for smaller, strained countries in times of crisis. A set of new IMF tools should also help funnel more funds to such countries in the short-term. "But IMF does act as an anchor and allows access to a broader set of funding, even if not from the market," said Alexandru-Chidesciuc.
HONG KONG, Oct 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The world is facing a difficult 2023 as growth slows in most developed economies. The world economy will expand by 2.7% in 2023, per the IMF. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterChina’s contribution to global growth will be more than three times greater than the United States. The South Asian nation produces roughly 3% of world GDP. Even if it expands by 6.1% as forecast, it will account for just 7.7% of global growth.
Markets are worried the Fed is going too far
  + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Wall Street is worried that yet another high reading on the Consumer Price Index will prompt another massive interest rate increase and inflict more pain on markets and the US economy. But this full-steam-ahead approach by the Fed, based on the notion that iron-clad data is protection enough, has given some economists pause. Last week’s nonfarm payroll report roiled markets, but job openings have now fallen by 1.8 million since their March peak. The IMF believes that global inflation will peak late this year, but will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected,” even as central banks work aggressively to bring it under control. ▸ The Consumer Price Index, a closely watched measures of inflation in the US is due to be released on Thursday.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoOct 12 (Reuters) - Signs of stress are growing in the global financial system, sparking worries over everything from contagion between markets to ruptures in financial products. This week alone, a gloomy report from the International Monetary Fund flagged risks of “disorderly asset repricings” and “financial market contagions” while JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon predicted a looming recession. Global financial conditions, which reflect the availability of funding, touched their tightest since 2009 in late September, an index compiled by Goldman Sachs showed, lifted by surging interest rates, falling equities and a soaring dollar. “There are dollar funding shortages.”The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, released Tuesday, also highlighted specific risks in open-end investment funds and the leveraged loan market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday said she has not seen signs of financial instability in U.S. financial markets despite high volatility.
Seems counter-intuitive, but the Fed (and much of Wall Street) is actually rooting for that number to go down. Here’s the thing: Before the pandemic and its whiplash-inducing economic rebound, the US economy averaged about 200,000 new jobs each month. In the last jobs report, wages were up 5.2% over the last 12 months. GRIM PROGNOSIS(CNN Business) Peloton announced yet another round of layoffs — its fourth round of cuts this year — as its new CEO attempts to shore up the company’s bottom line. And if it fails, McCarthy told The Wall Street Journal, Peloton likely isn’t viable as a stand-alone company.
CNN —There will be “people on the street” globally unless steps are taken to protect the most vulnerable from inflation, International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Wednesday. And if you don’t take action to support the most vulnerable, there would be consequences: people on the street,” IMF’s Managing Director Georgieva told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. So we think of poor people first when we advocate for attacking inflation forcefully,” Georgieva said. Because of a shock upon shock upon shock. They have been locked in their houses for months, and months and months.
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