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"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

☆ It’s getting ‘substantially’ harder for Europe’s businesses and homebuyers to get loans
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In the first quarter of 2023, net demand for loans to businesses fell the most since the end of 2008, the central bank found after polling 158 banks in the region between March 22 and April 6. “From a historical perspective, the pace of net tightening in credit standards remained at the highest level since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011,” the ECB said. The central bank has made clear that it won’t ease the most intense campaign of rate hikes in its history until it is certain inflation is under control. “What really matters,” she added, is that inflation recedes to the central bank’s 2% target over the medium term. “Eurozone banks are already generally tightening credit standards and terms and loan demand is decreasing,” Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said in a note to clients.

Summary German public sector secures 5.5% rise for 2024Deal sets precedent, piles pressure on ECB's forecastsECB to raise rates on May 4FRANKFURT, April 24 (Reuters) - The "very generous" pay rise secured by Germany's public sector workers may complicate the European Central Bank's fight against inflation, analysts said on Monday. "The permanent increase next year may raise some eyebrows at the ECB because wages were supposed to peak this year," Natixis economist Dirk Schumacher said. Other economists noted the German public sector pay agreement followed a period of falling real wages, when prices grow faster than salaries. "Doves may argue that the deal comes after a period of wage restraint and is reasonably front-loaded," Christian Schulz, an economist at Citi, said. "This means that it will probably take at least another five years for public sector wages to recover this loss of purchasing power and for employees to have the standard of living they had in 2021," Fratzscher said.

☆ UBS to take over Credit Suisse, central banks act on liquidity
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -UBS sealed a deal to buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in an effort to avoid further market-shaking turmoil in global banking, Swiss authorities said on Sunday. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Credit Suisse is pictured in front of the Swiss Parliament Building, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The reports that UBS is acquiring Credit Suisse will likely magnify Credit Suisse’s problems by moving them to UBS... The Credit Suisse issues are not new and needed to be resolved years ago. A legal challenge by Credit Suisse shareholders, who will claim that their property has been illegally confiscated, is guaranteed.

☆ Europe didn't roll back post-2008 banking rules. That was smart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Shares in European banks slumped Wednesday as speculation about the health of Credit Suisse (CSGKF) reignited the market turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, has fallen 13% since last Wednesday’s close. In 2018, former President Donald Trump watered down key parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, which set stricter rules for the banking sector. But European banks are required to hold capital to cover the risk of a large and sudden change in borrowing costs. “This means that European banks have less exposure to market risk on bonds, despite a similar rise in yields,” Moody’s said in its note.

☆ Major central banks set to signal interest rate glide path in crucial week for monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.

☆ Europe could dodge a recession. But the UK economy is in a mess
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Business activity across the 20 countries that use the euro expanded in January for the first time in six months, according to data published Tuesday, providing fresh evidence that Europe’s economy could confound expectations and dodge a recession this year. The UK survey is conducted in conjunction with the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply. “Weaker-than-expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession,” Williamson said. The UK economy lost more working days to strikes between June and November 2022 than in any six-month period over the previous 30 years, according to data published last week by Britain’s Office for National Statistics. Separate data published by the ONS on Tuesday showed that UK government borrowing hit £27.4 billion ($33.7 billion) in December, the highest figure for that month since records began in 1993.

☆ As China reopens and data surprises, economists are starting to get less gloomy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The European Central Bank is expected to continue raising rates aggressively in the short-term as the euro zone economy proves more resilient than anticipated. Haussmann Visuals | Moment | Getty ImagesAfter China's reopening and a deluge of positive data surprises in recent weeks, economists are upgrading their previously gloomy outlooks for the global economy. Berenberg also upgraded its euro zone forecast in light of recent news flow, particularly falling gas prices, a consumer confidence recovery and a modest improvement in business expectations. watch now"As Germany is more exposed to gas risks than the euro zone as a whole, it suggests that the euro zone likely did not fare (much) worse than Germany late last year and may thus have avoided a significant contraction in Q4 GDP," Schmieding said. Berenberg therefore raised its calls for the annual average change to real GDP in 2023 from a 0.2% shrinkage to 0.3% growth.

☆ European natural gas prices return to pre-Ukraine war levels
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

EU energy ministers are wrangling over a proposed price cap on gas. LONDON — European natural gas prices fell this week to levels not seen since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At their peak in August, European gas prices topped 345 euros/MWh as Russia's weaponization of its natural gas exports to the rest of the continent in response to punitive EU sanctions, and sky-high temperatures over the summer, drove up demand while constricting supply. The spiking prices sent household energy bills soaring and have fueled a cost-of-living crisis across much of the continent. Goldman Sachs in November predicted a sharp fall in European gas prices in the coming months as nations gained a temporary upper hand on supply issues.

☆ Central banks around the world have now given the markets a clear message — tighter policy is here to stay
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowGeorge Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said the major central banks had given the markets a "clear message" that "financial conditions need to stay tight." Now that central banks have achieved this, the 2023 theme is different: preventing the market from doing the opposite," Saravelos said. "The overall message for 2023 seems clear: central banks will push back on higher risky assets until the labour market starts to turn," Saravelos concluded. Berenberg added a further 50 basis point move on March 16 to its existing anticipation of 50 basis points on Feb. 2.

☆ Germany's housing market is ripe for a serious price correction, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"The housing market is softening significantly," he said, citing a strong decrease in demand for loans and a drop in housing construction. watch nowAnd while the language used may vary, many analysts are forecasting a dip in Germany's housing market. A Reuters poll of property market experts last month anticipated German house prices would fall by 3.5% next year. A 'vulnerable' market But not all financial institutions agree that Germany's property market is set for a large correction. The labor market is key Moves in the labor market will determine how the property market shifts, according to some analysts.

☆ Commerzbank chief says he's not preparing for disaster, sees a mild recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A "mild recession" is on the cards, according to Commerzbank CEO Manfred Knof. Commerzbank CEO Manfred Knof says the bank has prepared for an uplift in nonperforming loans, but the situation is "definitely not a disaster or default issue" as a "mild recession" is likely in the cards. "We have already made provisions but still at the moment we don't see a lot of issues ahead of us," Knof told CNBC's Annette Weisbach at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt Friday. Nonperforming loans are bank loans likely to be repaid late or not in full and are also known as "bad debt." The chief economist at Berenberg, Holger Schmieding, told CNBC that consumer confidence had "plunged so badly that the recession will likely not be shallow."

☆ Euro zone predicted to have a deep recession and a difficult, slow recovery
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The euro zone economy is heading towards a recession, according to several economists. Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty ImagesThe euro zone is expected to plunge into recession in the coming months with economists warning "it will not be shallow." The 19-member zone that shares the euro currency has been under significant pressure since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February. Speaking earlier this month, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that "the risk of recession has increased." Gas storageEven if the euro zone emerges out of recession in the first quarter of next year, economists say the subsequent months will still be hard.

The market can accept gridlock," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. S&P 500 has risen in every 12-month period following the U.S. midterm elections over the past 70 yearsAt 6:21 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 67 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.08%. Meanwhile, some market participants expect October U.S. inflation data due on Thursday to be more market-moving. read moreReporting by Medha Singh and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Summary Futures up: Dow 0.02%, S&P 0.15%, Nasdaq 0.41%Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Wednesday as results from midterm elections rolled in, with investors bracing for a political gridlock in Washington that would make it harder for drastic policy changes to come through. "You're in a slightly different situation and it does look like the Biden Presidency has not been dealt a massive blow by these midterm elections, so the markets are in a wait-and-see mode." The S&P 500 has posted a gain in each 12-month period after the midterm vote since World War Two, according to Deutsche Bank. S&P 500 has risen in every 12-month period following the U.S. midterm elections over the past 70 yearsAt 3:07 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 7 points, or 0.02%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5 points or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 45.75 points, or 0.41%.

☆ Russia's hopes for a Republican landslide to hurt Ukraine are vanishing fast
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Shift in power ... and Ukraine support? Russia could well hope that a shift in power after the the midterm elections could herald a cooler attitude toward Ukraine. "Further, most Republicans remain staunchly committed to Ukraine support, despite House minority leader Kevin McCarthy's announcement of 'no blank check' for the Ukrainians under a Republican-led House. Russia's President Vladimir Putin listens while then-U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in Helsinki, Finland, in 2019. "The war in Ukraine must provide the U.S. with the best chance for regime change in Russia, of taking Putin out.

☆ Markets look for answers from the European Central Bank as it preps for a jumbo rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

While the European Central Bank is largely expected to announce another rate hike Thursday, market players are seemingly more concentrated on two other policy tools as the region edges toward a recession. The central bank has been contemplating inflation being at record highs but an economy that is slowing, with many economists predicting a recession before the end of the year. Amid this context, the ECB is widely seen raising rates by 75 basis points later this week. This would be the second consecutive jumbo hike and the third increase this year. Given the inflationary pressures — the September inflation rate came in at 10% — analysts are pricing in at least another 50 basis point hike in December.

☆ World stocks head back towards 2-year lows as mood sours
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

There was a modest respite for Britain's battered bond market after the Bank of England said it would start purchasing inflation-linked debt. And MSCI's world stock index was down 0.5% -- moving back towards roughly two-year lows hit last week (.MIWD00000PUS). Emerging market stocks hit their lowest level since April 2020 and are on track for a near-30% tumble year-to-date, its worst year since the 2008 global financial crisis. GILT RESPITEBritish government bond or gilt yields edged lower, having soared on Monday, following the BoE's latest efforts to shore up the battered bond market. The Aussie dollar fell to a 2-1/2-year low of around $0.6248 and the kiwi dollar hit a low of $0.5536.

☆ 'Path to oblivion': Ukraine military gains could deepen Russia's economic problems
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Foreign Ministry Of Uzbekistan | via ReutersUkraine's counteroffensive, which has seen vast swathes of Russian-occupied territory get recaptured, could be compounding Russia's economic troubles, as international sanctions continue to hammer its fortunes. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the recently Ukrainian military gains could hit Russia's economy hard. "Even more so than before, the Russian economy looks set to descend into a gradually deepening recession," Schmieding said in a note last week. Statistics are scarce on the true state of the Russian economy, with the Kremlin keeping its cards relatively close to its chest. She added that the Kremlin had "put Russia's economy on that path to oblivion" and vowed that sanctions were "here to stay."

☆ More pain in the pipeline for Germany, economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMore pain in the pipeline for Germany, economist warnsHolger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, discusses the latest producer price data out of Germany and the outlook for Europe's largest economy.

☆ Noua tulpină de coronavirus din Marea Britanie lovește lira și moneda euro: investitorii „fug” spre dolar
▼ + stars: | 2020-12-21 | by ( ) www.zdg.md time to read: +2 min

Lira britanică și moneda euro au scăzut luni, în timp ce investitorii au căutat refugiu în dolar, după ce o nouă tulpină de coronavirus cu răspândire rapidă a închis o mare parte din Regatul Unit și a perturbat transportul internațional de marfă, transmite Reuters. Bursele europene au scăzut după ce, cea mai mare parte a Europei, a întrerupt transportul cu Marea Britanie, însămânțând haos pentru cetățeni și companii, cu câteva zile înainte ca Marea Britanie să iasă din Uniunea Europeană. Între timp, au crescut temerile că Marea Britanie ar putea ieși din perioada de tranziție din UE pe 1 ianuarie. La 12:02 GMT, lira a scăzut cu 1,91% până la 1,3270 dolari și a pierdut teren față de euro, în scădere cu 1,23% până la 91,66 cenți. Dolarul a urcat luni față de cele mai importante monede de referință, investitorii căutând siguranța relativă, deoarece multe țări au înăsprit blocajele COVID-19.

Persons: Boris Johnson, Ulrich Leuchtmann, Reuters, Simon Coveney, Holger Organizations: Reuters, Uniunea Europeană, Congresul american Locations: britanică, Regatul Unit, Europei, UE, Franța, Olanda, Danemarca, Belgia, Irlanda, Irlandei

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