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☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

☆ Strategists slash U.S. yield view again despite Fed's inflation focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yields on U.S. 2-year Treasury notes have plunged over 100 basis points following the failure of some regional U.S. banks last month. But markets are pricing for a series of interest rate cuts starting just two months later, underscoring an exceptionally large divergence from the central bank's own view. That recent downward trend in yields is forecast to continue further, according to the April 5-12 poll of over 60 bond strategists. However, in the coming three months, yields on both 2-year and 10-year notes were expected to rise 20 and 25 basis points, respectively, before resuming their fall. Relatively high volatility has also been a driver of yield forecasts over the past few months.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

☆ Dollar's crown to slip as peers catch up in rates race: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Median forecasts in the March 31-April 4 poll of 90 foreign exchange strategists showed the dollar ceding ground to all major currencies in a year. "Our take on the dollar is that we continue to look for further weakness over the next three to six months. With the dollar's expected retreat, the European single currency is finding its spot in the sun after briefly crossing below parity on lagging rate expectations in 2022. The safe-haven currency, which hit 32-year lows in 2022 again on rate differentials, was forecast to recoup that loss over the forecast horizon. Indeed, the 12-month median view for nearly all of the major currencies surveyed was identical with the March poll.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

☆ India current account deficit likely narrowed to 2.7% of GDP in Q4
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The median forecast of 22 economists polled March 16-23 showed a current account deficit of $23.0 billion in October-December 2022, or 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). More than half of the expected narrowing is due to a reduction in the goods trade deficit, suggesting weakening domestic demand in Asia's third-largest economy. India's merchandise trade deficit shrank to $72.79 billion last quarter, compared to $78.32 billion in July-September, according to ministry of commerce data. These are the two reasons why we are seeing that the (current account deficit) numbers are better." A separate Reuters poll of economists who had a longer-term view forecast the current account gap to average 3.0% of GDP this fiscal year before shrinking to 2.6% in the next.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Poll dataBENGALURU, March 7 (Reuters) - India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates and a weak global economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who have barely changed their forecasts from three months ago. Defying a global trend of falling housing prices as mortgage rates rise and crimp affordability, India has exhibited resilience and is emerging from a decade-long downturn due to strong demand. A major source of employment in a country of 1.4 billion people where a majority are unskilled, the Indian housing market is likely to remain a stable contributor to economic activity in Asia's third-largest economy. A recent increase in unemployment also raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market trend. "Amid rising prices, affordability will only worsen in the coming quarters.

☆ Dollar's renewed strength temporary, weakness ahead, FX analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While analysts have been predicting a weaker dollar 12 months out for over five years, their predictions only came true in 2020 when the currency weakened more than 6.5%. There was also no clear consensus among analysts in the poll over dollar positioning, which turned net short dollar last November. Among the remaining 18, a dozen forecast a reversal to net long positions and six predicted an increase in net short positions. Even the British pound , which dropped more than 10% last year, was expected to claw back around half of those losses in 12 months. Sterling was predicted to rise from its latest level of $1.19 to $1.22, $1.23 and $1.26 in the next three, six and 12 months, respectively.

Mortgage rates had been broadly declining since October but resumed their ascent in recent weeks on expectations the Fed will keep its federal funds rate higher for longer. While house prices probably had a bit further to fall, an overall housing shortage will broadly support these historically-elevated levels, Sunbury said. "We don't think affordability will return to its post-GFC levels or even its pre-pandemic average in the coming years." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently at 6.5%, will average 6.35% this year, the poll found. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Indradip Ghosh and Prerana Bhat; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sujith Pai; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ More volatility, possible correction ahead for global stock markets: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies poll datahttp://tmsnrt.rs/2nHJiJ9https://tmsnrt.rs/3EwxtMLhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3EwgwloBENGALURU, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Volatility in global stock markets is not yet over, as more investors reckon interest rates will likely stay higher for longer, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts, a slight majority of whom expected a correction within three months. "Valuations are stretched across equity markets after the rally year-to-date. The Feb. 10-22 Reuters poll of more than 150 strategists, analysts and fund managers covering 17 global stock indices, found 56% were expecting a correction in their local market in the next three months. Latam stock markets will have a relatively better year with Mexican stocks expected to advance 6.7% to 57,500 points and Brazil's Bovespa stock index predicted to gain 14.5% to 125,000 points by year-end. (Other stories from the Reuters Q1 global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Hari Kishan and Sarupya Ganguly; Additional reporting and polling by correspondents in Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo and Toronto; Editing by Ross Finley and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ POLL Global stocks to correct in short term as inflation weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary poll datahttp://tmsnrt.rs/2nHJiJ9BENGALURU, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months as investors digest the fact that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts. The poll showed a majority would fall short, or just about recoup their 2022 losses by the end of the year. Stocks have rallied about 20% in recent months and some strategists say that the market has gone too far. "Valuations are stretched across equity markets after the rally year-to-date. A stronger 70% majority of analysts, 57 of 82, expected value stocks to outperform growth stocks this year.

☆ Bank of Korea to hold rates despite still high inflation - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% at Feb. 23 meetingBENGALURU, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea will hold its base interest rate at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of this year, suggesting its longest tightening cycle on record is over despite still high inflation, a Reuters poll of economists found. All 42 economists polled Feb. 13-20 predicted no change to the 3.50% base rate (KROCRT=ECI), already the highest since late 2008, at the central bank's Feb. 23 meeting. Only a few respondents expected rates to climb above 3.50% at some point this year, while nearly half expected at least one rate cut by year-end. We expect the first rate cut to materialise in 2024, when we expect inflation to settle around the 2% mark and the U.S. (Federal Reserve) to pivot." The BOK's stance differs from many other global central banks that are expected to carry on raising interest rates, including the Fed.

☆ RBNZ to hike rates 50bps on Feb. 22, another 50bps due by mid-year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The RBNZ has already raised rates by a total of 400 basis points since October 2021. The remaining five economists expected a second successive 75-basis point move at the Feb. 22 policy meeting. But nearly half of respondents, 45%, predicted a lower peak rate. Inflation was expected to fall to 5.1% this year and 2.6% in 2024, a Reuters poll showed last month. A recent RBNZ survey expected price pressures to slow to 3.30% in the next two years.

☆ At least two more Fed rate hikes and no cut this year, say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

All 37 who replied to an extra question said the bigger risk was the fed funds rate would peak even higher. That means the Fed is going to keep the policy rate at high levels for quite a bit longer." One-third, or 18 of those 54 economists, predicted the fed funds rate would peak at 4.75%-5.00% and hold there through the remainder of the year. The unemployment rate, currently at the lowest since 1969, was expected to climb to 4.8% in Q1 2024, by which time most economists were expecting at least one rate cut. Asked which was more likely to compel a rate cut, 21 of 35 economists said a significant fall in inflation, with 14 saying a significant rise in unemployment.

BENGALURU, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, is forecast to strengthen very little in coming months and still trade above the 80 per dollar mark a year from now, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found. The risk, however, is if U.S. inflation does not fall as much as markets are hoping it does in coming months. Even if it's marginally higher than what the market is currently expecting ... that could lead to a brief dollar rally and pressure the rupee." The latest Reuters poll of 43 foreign exchange analysts, taken after the Feb. 1 budget, showed the rupee strengthening just over 1% to 81.75 per dollar in the next six months. (For other stories from the February Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ RBI to hike repo rate by 25 bps in Feb, ending tightening cycle: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Like many other major central banks, the RBI is expected to then pause, waiting for inflation to fall before considering a shift toward a stimulative stance as Asia's third-largest economy slows. More than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, expected the RBI to raise its key repo rate (INREPO=ECI) by 25 basis points to 6.50%, according to a Jan. 13-27 Reuters poll. "They (the RBI) need to pause at some point to see what exactly is the impact of the previous monetary tightening overall on growth and inflation. That is why I believe it is not premature for them to pause after 6.50%," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. A deteriorating global economic outlook also suggests downgrades to India's outlook are likely in coming months.

☆ Bond strategists take axe to U.S. Treasury yield forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bond strategists at JPMorgan noted recently that the U.S. Treasury market is already priced for a recession and not just for the heightened risks of one. Already off their peaks from late last year and early 2023, major benchmark government bond yields have eased 20-40 basis points since, and more than 50 basis points on the particularly rate-sensitive U.S. two-year Treasury yield. That is about 30 basis points lower on the one-year horizon than a poll published in December. This would extend one of the longest periods on record where two-year yields have been higher than 10-year ones, a yield curve inversion. The poll expected German bund yields to rise from their current 2.25% to around 2.4% in three and six months.

☆ POLL Global 2023 economic view downgraded, at odds with market optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The 2023 growth forecast is well behind an International Monetary Fund forecast of 2.7% that was issued in October and is due to be updated next week. Much will depend on how much success the world's major central banks can claim from roughly a year's worth of historically aggressive interest rate hikes that are not over yet. Reuters poll graphic on the global growth outlookConsensus gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2023 for more than 80% of economies surveyed were downgraded from the October poll. That suggests central banks have no room to even consider lowering rates any time soon. "We see good reasons to believe that the global economy still has a tough year ahead," economists at Citigroup said.

☆ Global 2023 economic view downgraded, at odds with market optimism - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The 2023 growth forecast is well behind an International Monetary Fund forecast of 2.7% that was issued in October and is due to be updated next week. Much will depend on how much success the world's major central banks can claim from roughly a year's worth of historically aggressive interest rate hikes that are not over yet. Reuters poll graphic on the global growth outlookConsensus gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2023 for more than 80% of economies surveyed were downgraded from the October poll. That, alongside six of the eight major central banks not being expected to hit their inflation targets this year, suggests speculation over lower rates could be premature. "We see good reasons to believe that the global economy still has a tough year ahead," economists at Citigroup said.

☆ Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, are down more than a third from last year's highs and were expected to remain under pressure this year over fears of a recession in major economies sapping demand. Overall growth in the six GCC economies was forecast to average 3.3% and 2.8% this year and next respectively, the Jan. 9-23 poll showed, down from 4.2% and 3.3% in the previous poll. Among other Gulf countries - Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain - growth was expected at 2.4%-2.7% for 2023. Despite lower oil GDP growth, non-oil growth was expected to remain resilient in 2023, economists in the survey said. Analysts expected continued current account surpluses for the main Gulf economies, based on relatively high oil prices.

☆ Indian govt to borrow a record 16 trillion rupees in fiscal 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Gross borrowing next fiscal year is expected to hit 16.0 trillion rupees, up from an estimated 14.2 trillion rupees in 2022/23, according to the median forecast of 43 economists. Predictions were in a narrow range of 14.8 trillion to 17.2 trillion rupees. Even if it is at the lower end of the range, 2023/2024 gross borrowing would easily be the highest on record. Nim estimated repayments for 2023/24 at about 4.4 trillion rupees. India's government will cut food and fertiliser subsidies to 3.7 trillion rupees, more than 25% below the level of around 5 trillion rupees budgeted for 2022/23, the poll found.

☆ Thai c.bank to raise rates 25 bps, tourism to bolster growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Unlike its neighbours in Malaysia and Indonesia, The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to keep tightening policy for awhile longer. Twenty-one of 23 economists polled by Reuters expected the BOT to raise its benchmark one-day repurchase rate (THCBIR=ECI) by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.50% on Jan. 25. This gives the BOT room to continue hiking rates, to continue anchoring inflation expectations." The poll median showed the central bank would then raise borrowing costs by another 25 bps, taking it to 2.00% by end-September. "The combination of improving growth prospects and still-elevated inflation gives the central bank room to continue reducing policy accommodation."

Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back, according to the survey. But private investment has lagged New Delhi's lead for about a decade. Capex is set to increase in fiscal 2023/24 by about 17% to 8.85 trillion Indian rupees ($109 billion), from an estimated 7.50 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, itself up roughly 35% on a year before. Reuters Poll: Indian budget projections - 1The total of public and private investment as a proportion of the economy has declined since 2014, when Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power. The poll also found the government would cut food and fertiliser subsidies by 26% to 3.7 trillion rupees from almost 5.0 trillion rupees expected during the current fiscal year.

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