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☆ Morning Bid: Still seeking decisive stimulus in China
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Sonali DesaiDisappointment has been the prevailing sentiment so far this week as investors grow impatient with the wait for more decisive Chinese stimulus measures. China delivered the expected 10 basis-point reduction to its lending benchmarks, but disappointed those looking for a bigger cut to the mortgage-linked five-year loan prime rate. Chinese property stocks took a hit and the yuan came under further pressure, reversing much of its bounce against the U.S. dollar late last week when stimulus expectations were driving price action. Still, that helped Australian shares build on recent gains to reach a seven-week high, bucking declines across Asian bourses where rising Treasury yields and souring anticipation of Chinese stimulus efforts spurred broad declines. The wary investor mood is likely to spill into Europe, where the data calendar is confined to German producer prices for May.

Persons: Sonali Desai, Antony Blinken's, Luis de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Olli Rehn, Elizabeth McCaul, Luis de Guindos, St Louis, James Bullard, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Sonali, U.S ., Reuters, Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of Spain, Bank of Finland, St, Barcelona School of, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Europe, Luis de Guindos, Hungary

☆ Morning Bid: Ready for more rate hikes, and one cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been predictably subdued in Asia as a U.S. holiday provides a convenient excuse for stocks to consolidate recent hefty gains before a bevy of central bank meetings this week. Most indices are down, with the Nikkei off modestly having climbed 22% over a 10-week streak to hit 33-year highs. The coming week is also jammed with central bank action, led by China on Tuesday where prime loan rates are expected to be cut by 10 basis points. Futures seem unimpressed with just 21 basis points of tightening priced in by September, though one final hike in July is rated as a decent 70% chance.

Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Antony Blinken's, deigned, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Isabel Schnabel, Luis de Guindos, Philip Lane, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, NASDAQ, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, ECB, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, U.S, Beijing, China, Bank of England, Norway, Switzerland

☆ Morning Bid: Fresh lira low, focus on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandAnother day, another market-positive appointment from Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and yet, another record low for the lira. Erdogan is making all the right noises to signal a return to more orthodox policy, picking U.S. banking executive Hafize Gaye Erkan as head of the central bank. Even so, the lira is seemingly in freefall, reaching an unprecedented 23.54 per dollar in Asian hours and extending this month's drop to 12%. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has a chance to air his views at an event in Madrid. Reuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Friday:Sweden GDP and industrial productionItaly industrial outputECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at conference in MadridReporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kevin Buckland Another, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mehmet Simsek, Rodrigo Catril, Luis de Guindos, Kazuo Ueda, Kevin Buckland, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan, Fed, SEC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: freefall, Europe, Canada, Australia, Madrid, Sweden, Italy

☆ Morning Bid: China disappoints again, fanning speculation on stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

For the record, exports posted a bigger-than-expected drop of 7.5% year-on-year, sending the trade surplus to a 13-month low, while imports remained mired in negative territory. Indeed, RBA Governor Philip Lowe was still explaining Tuesday's policy decision in a speech to bankers after the central bank wrong-footed economists who predicted there would be a rate pause for a second straight month. Expectations of a follow-up hike in July cushioned the Aussie from the weak Chinese trade numbers and Australia's own below-forecast first-quarter gross domestic product data. Stock markets in Asia were mixed, as were U.S. equity futures, following a slightly firmer finish on Wall Street. Light positioning could well persist into next week's lineup of major central bank meetings, as the earnings season draws to a close.

Persons: Sonali Desai China's, Philip Lowe, Fabio Panetta, Edouard Fernandez, Bollo, Luis de Guindos, Klaas, Sonali Desai, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Bank of Canada, Stock, U.S, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Europe, Asia, Brussels

☆ Euro steadies after Lagarde promises rate hike as inflation still too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The euro held its ground on Thursday, above a two-month low, after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said inflation remains too high and further policy tightening was necessary. But the current level is still more than three times the ECB's 2% inflation target. "Today, inflation is too high and it is set to remain so for too long," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps hike when the ECB meets on June 15. Another 25 bps hike is expected in July, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Simon Harvey, Luis de Guindos, Carol Kong, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Simon Cameron, Moore, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve, U.S . House, Fed, U.S, Democratic, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Europe, London, Singapore

☆ Eurozone Inflation Slides to Lowest in More Than a Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Liz Alderman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation in the eurozone slid last month to the lowest level in more than a year, as an easing of price rises after last year’s run-up in energy bills gained momentum. But the price of food and services climbed at an uncomfortable pace, raising the odds that the European Central Bank will continue to lift interest rates to curb costs. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation rose 5.3 percent, down from 5.6 percent the month before. Yet while the yearlong surge in inflation has peaked, millions of households in Europe are continuing to confront a cost-of-living crisis, even as employers raise wages to help offset the pain, an issue that remains a top concern for E.C.B. “I could not say that the victory is there so far,” the bank’s vice president, Luis de Guindos, said in Frankfurt earlier this week.

Persons: “, Luis de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank Locations: Europe, Frankfurt

BERLIN, May 31 (Reuters) - Inflation eased in five economically important German states in the month of May, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, suggesting that national price rises are set to slow to their lowest in more than a year. The inflation rate in North-Rhine Westphalia fell to 5.7%, while in Bavaria it slowed to 6.1%, in Brandenburg to 6.3%, in Hesse to 5.9% and in Baden-Wuerttemberg to 6.6%. In April, inflation rates for those five states, out of 16 in Germany, had been between 6.8% and 7.6%. National inflation data will be published at 1200 GMT, with economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting a 6.5% year-on-year rise. Furthermore, the base effects from high energy and food prices in May 2022 will disappear from the year-on-year comparison.

Persons: Luis de Guindos, Maria Martinez, Balazs Koranyi, Matthias Williams, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Rhine Westphalia, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse, Baden, Wuerttemberg, Germany, Dutch

☆ ECB's de Guindos warns financial markets are vulnerable to a sharp sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Financial markets could face a sharp downturn in the event of any further shocks to the global economy, European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos told CNBC on Wednesday. Earlier on Wednesday, the ECB published its May Financial Stability Review, saying that the euro area's stability outlook remained fragile in the aftermath of recent turmoil in the banking sector, which saw the failure of several U.S. regional banks and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. Global stock markets made a robust start to 2023, given falling energy prices, China's reopening and the surprising resilience of the euro zone economy — driving equity valuations back above historical averages, the ECB highlighted. This reversed abruptly in late February and March as a hawkish tone from central banks and unexpected stress in the banking sector roiled investors around the world. De Guindos said current market positioning rendered stocks vulnerable to any further macro surprises.

Persons: Luis de Guindos, De Guindos, de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Credit Suisse, UBS

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandYou didn't think it would be that easy, did you? Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks. Discussions now seem to be back on track, with President Joe Biden due to meet House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy later today. Another potential boost comes from the PBOC's assessment that the fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed. Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane are among Lagarde's ECB colleagues on speaking duty today.

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant//File PhotoMay 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell slightly in early Asian trade on Friday as optimism that a U.S. debt default will be avoided weighed against sticky inflation data that could portend more interest rate hikes from global central banks. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. Also weighing on markets is persistently high inflation data and hawkish comments from global central banks. Japan's core consumer prices rose 3.4% in April from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.

☆ Morning Bid: Cloud control - tech trumps banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Alphabet (GOOGL.O) also gained 1% as it too trumpeted gains in cloud services and AI, alongside plans for a $70 billion buyback. With Meta (META.O) results out later, its stock was up 2% and Amazon (AMZN.O) raced ahead 4%. PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) shares jumped 15% in extended trading after the regional lender said deposits have been building recently. And in Europe, Standard Chartered (STAN.L) shares bucked otherwise dour markets on a forecast-beating 21% jump in first-quarter profits. U.S. Treasury markets continued to rally, with yields on 2-year notes dropping below 4% Tuesday and testing 3.9% early today.

☆ Morning Bid: Purchasing managers of the world, diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Softening second-tier data in the U.S. on Thursday put a bid under bonds for the first time in a few weeks, while bitcoin was clobbered. Purchasing manager's index data are the next set of economic figures due as market focus flings back on growth. British (GBPMMF=ECI) and euro zone (EUPMMF=ECI) manufacturing surveys are seen stuck in contraction territory. European and British services PMIs are seen steady and staying in expansion mode. British retail sales are expected to fall, adding up to a somewhat confounding picture.

☆ Morning Bid: April boomlet mocks recession script
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe signal is still lost in an awful lot of noise. With next week's Big Tech earnings reports hoving into view, the overall U.S. corporate healthcheck remains pretty mixed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overall global stock market direction remains equivocal. Although Asia bourses had initially followed Wall St's Thursday swoon, European indexes and S&P500 futures were little changed on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy markets wait on inflation report, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will parse through the commentary to better understand the Fed's thinking about the turmoil in the banking sector, which had stoked expectations that the Fed may need to cut rates. But economic data along with rhetoric from Fed speakers have led markets to price in a two-thirds chance of a 25bp hike in May and standing pat thereafter, according to CME FedWatch tool. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Switzerland's upper house had approved the rescue earlier on Tuesday, meaning the two chambers of the legislative body will vote again on Wednesday. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:Economic events: Inflation reports from Serbia, Hungary; Bank of Canada rate decision; U.S. inflation report; Fed minutesSpeakers: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB's Luis De GuindosReporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB's De Guindos warns of broad risks in financial sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Giancarlo Navach | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

CERNOBBIO, Italy, April 1 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank (ECB) is monitoring current market tensions closely and will act to preserve price and financial stability in the euro area, ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said in a speech on Saturday. "...In our view, vulnerabilities in the financial system prevail in the non-bank financial sector, which grew fast and increased its risk-taking during the low interest rate environment," De Guindos told the Ambrosetti business forum in northern Italy. Reporting by Giancarlo Navach Writing by Keith Weir, editing by Gavin JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/3] The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File PhotoWASHINGTON/FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) - Stress in the banking sector is being closely monitored for its potential to trigger a credit crunch, a U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker said on Sunday, as a European Central Bank official also flagged a possible tightening in lending. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB believes that recent banking sector turmoil may result in lower growth and inflation rates, its vice president Luis de Guindos said. Turbulence among banking stocks on both sides of the Atlantic continued into the end of the week, despite efforts by politicians, central banks and regulators to dispel concerns.

REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File PhotoSummarySummary Companies U.S. stocks add to Thursday's gainsTreasury yields and dollar pull backEuropean, Asian stocks also advanceCrude oil prices fallMarch 3 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks opened higher while Treasury yields and the dollar pulled back on Friday as risk appetite was boosted by data pointing to economic growth, even as expectations for rate hikes kept bond yields near multi-year highs. The recovery in euro zone business activity gathered pace last month, PMI survey data showed, in the latest piece of data to suggest the bloc will avoid a recession. U.S. Treasury yields paused their rally. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.007%, down from Thursday's high of 4.091% . The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 0.5 basis points at 4.909%.

REUTERS/StaffLONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - European stocks rose in early trading on Friday, as investor risk appetite was boosted by signs of an economic recovery in China, even after expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes kept government bond yields at their highest in years. Investors are trying to gauge the path for Federal Reserve rate hikes, after strong U.S. data in recent weeks suggested rates may need to be higher for longer. But stock markets rose on Wall Street overnight, in a move analysts attributed to Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic saying on Thursday that the Fed should stick to "steady" quarter-point rate hikes. The recovery in euro zone business activity gathered pace last month, PMI survey data showed. Euro zone government bond yields were still near their highest in years after euro zone inflation data on Thursday drove market expectations for the ECB's terminal rate to around 4%.

☆ ECB confronts a cold reality: companies are cashing in on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

"It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story." Instead, national accounts and earnings reports from listed companies are being used as proxies to paint the inflation picture. "The main story of the risks going forward is still that there's a looming wage-price spiral which should make the central bank even more aggressive in hiking interest rates." loadingloadingEven inside the ECB, labour representatives demanding higher pay for central bank staff have distanced themselves from what they described as the institution's "anti-worker bias".

☆ Morning Bid: What landing?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Forget soft landing, equities seem to be betting on no landing for the U.S. economy: a sublime state where steady growth and low unemployment can co-exist with slowing inflation and higher interest rates. That at least would explain the resilience of stocks to blockbuster U.S. retail data and the rise of 10-year Treasury yields to seven-week highs. After an initial dip, Wall Street rallied into the close and futures have since nudged higher, lifting Asian markets in the process. That's a marked divergence from the Blue Chip consensus which has been tipping a sharp contraction for the quarter.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ Morning Bid: The waiting game
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Worries over an economic slowdown, the direction of inflation and concerns about the pace of monetary tightening are all weighing on sentiment. But before that, UK GDP data for fourth quarter is due later on Friday and is expected to be flat, according to a Reuters poll. That's the third time it has scaled a new peak in less than a week and the GDP report will likely influence the market on the day. Investors are also waiting for Japan's government to present the new Bank of Japan governor nominee, also due on Tuesday. Since short-seller Hindenburg published its report on Adani last month, some $110 billion has been wiped off the value of the group's main seven listed firms.

☆ Morning Bid: Corporate scatter
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. A hail of mega corporate updates distracted stock markets from a confusing macro picture - but offers little more clarity with scattergun fortunes and ambiguous readouts for the wider economy. The flub fed worries that the Google parent is losing ground to rival Microsoft (MSFT.O) in the renewed craze around artificial intelligence. European shares touched a fresh nine-month high on Thursday as Germany's Siemens and UK's AstraZeneca boosted earnings euphoria, while Britain's bank, commodity and pharma heavy FTSE100 hit another record high. Norway's $1.35 trillion sovereign wealth fund said it had recently divested virtually all its remaining shares in the Adani group.

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