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☆ Powell's tone was hawkish but his comments were very moderate, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's tone was hawkish but his comments were very moderate, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore, Jerome Powell's, Jackson

☆ The Fed could be very close to achieving one of its main policy goals
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If the Federal Reserve's main policy goal these days is to tighten financial conditions, then it should be pretty close to achieving its goals, according to an Evercore ISI analysis. In fact, the Fed recently set up its own measure — the Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth , or FCI-G. "The Fed will have to consider the tightening in financial conditions when setting rates in coming months, including the decision whether to hike in September." "Our base is that the Fed will not raise rates further and developments in financial variables reinforce our call." Market pricing is largely in line with the call that the Fed halts its hiking cycle after raising rates 11 times since March 2022.

Persons: Evervore, Krishna Guha, Guha, Marco Casiraghi Organizations: Federal, U.S ., Fed, FCI, Evercore ISI, Treasury, Traders, Group, Citi, Cleveland

A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The Fed watches an array of asset prices in its monitoring of the economy, including stocks, home prices, and corporate bonds. Reuters GraphicsAs of the Fed's July meeting, most Fed officials said they thought rates would need to increase more, with key measures of inflation still more than double the Fed's 2% target. Normally, Fed officials would be expected to see that sort of economic strength as a reason inflation might stay high and require further rate increases. "It may take sustained higher 10-year yields to slow the economy and the housing sector in particular to re-attain 2% target inflation," wrote economists from Citi.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Krishna Guha, Guha, Howard Schneider, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/5] A security force trooper rides a vehicle on a highway at Torbung village in Churachandpur district in the northeastern state of Manipur, India, July 24. Modi's first comments on the violence in Manipur came last week, over two months after the trouble started in early May. The data show that in the first week of the violence in early May, 77 Kukis were killed compared to 10 Meiteis. According to government estimates, 2,780 weapons stolen from the state armoury, including assault rifles, sniper guns and pistols, remain with the Meiteis, while the Kukis have 156. Reporting by Krishn Kaushik in Manipur; Editing by YP Rajesh and Raju GopalakrishnanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adnan Abidi, Modi, Narendra Modi, Ramachandra Guha, Guha, Jangminlun Touthang, Modi's, Biren Singh, Meiteis, Kukis, Haopu Gangte, “, ” Gangte, ” Pramot Singh, Meitei, ”, Krishn Kaushik, YP Rajesh, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Kuki, YP, Thomson Locations: Torbung, Churachandpur district, Manipur, India, India's Manipur, Kuki, Imphal, Manipur's, Bishnupur, Kangvai, Myanmar, “

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week following similar positive inflation news. Meanwhile on Friday, the Bank of Japan opened the debate on plans to bring its ultra-loose policies to an end. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate now stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range, while the ECB's main rate is 3.75%. While bond markets took a cue from the faster growth, and pushed yields on Treasuries higher, the days of coordinated global tightening may be numbered.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Leika, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, U.S, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Graphics New, Tokyo

☆ It's important the Fed signals it has a high bar for cutting rates, says Harvard's Jason Furman
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's important the Fed signals it has a high bar for cutting rates, says Harvard's Jason FurmanJason Furman, Fmr. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates another 25 basis points.

Persons: Harvard's Jason Furman Jason Furman, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Fmr, Economic

A person familiar with the matter said he was Rajaratnam, who was sentenced in 2011 to 11 years in prison and was released early in 2019. Starting in 2018, Tidwell began receiving undisclosed benefits from Rajaratnam and a close friend and business associate of Rajaratnam, according to charging papers and the person familiar with the matter. Later, after Rajaratnam was released from prison, Tidwell in 2020 received a $50,000 loan from the onetime inmate's friend to buy a house. Prosecutors said he lied on a bank loan application about the source of that money. Reporting by Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by David Bario and Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Raj Rajaratnam, William Tidwell, Rajaratnam, Prosecutors, Goldman Sachs, Tidwell, Samidh Guha, Rajaratnam's, Brad Bailey, Nate Raymond, David Bario, Chris Reese Organizations: eBay, Galleon Group, Federal Medical Center Devens, Google, Thomson Locations: BOSTON, Massachusetts, Boston, Ayer , Massachusetts, York

☆ U.S. jobs report shows the labor market is cooling, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. jobs report shows the labor market is cooling, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed's next move after a cool jobs report.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore

☆ The Fed has rolled out a new index for gauging the economy that could have big implications
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is changing the way it looks at "financial conditions," a move that could have important ramifications for policy ahead. The Fed has been using a series of interest rate increases to tighten financial conditions and, ultimately, to bring down inflation. Essentially, the move allows the Fed to distance itself from other financial conditions models, such as those formulated by Goldman Sachs and the Chicago Fed . By contrast, the Chicago Fed index's current reading is -0.28, implying relatively loose conditions. Capital Economics noted that the FCI-G "does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures."

Persons: they've, Krishna Guha, Jerome, Powell, Guha, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Evercore ISI, Fed, Chicago Fed, Treasury, Dow Jones, U.S, FCI

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. But after inflation held at 8.7% in May, financial markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a bigger move and raise rates by half a percentage point. "The UK has a uniquely bad inflation problem," Krishna Guha, a vice chairman at U.S. investment banking advisory firm Evercore, said. Core inflation - which strips out more volatile prices to show an underlying trend - rose to a 31-year high in May. "Unfortunately, the Bank of England is in a situation where they will have to hike until something breaks," he said.

Persons: BoE, Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey, Megan Greene, Wieladek, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Sky News, MPC, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States

☆ Easing inflation pressures give the Fed room to skip a rate hike. But then what?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Softening inflation data for May likely has bought the Federal Reserve at least a month, though not much more, before it has to figure out what to do next. Following the CPI release Tuesday morning, markets priced in a 95% probability that the Fed will skip a hike at its two-day meeting concluding Wednesday, according to CME Group data . "The latest consumer price inflation data doesn't change the Fed outlook for a June rate hike skip, but it illustrates the 'should I stay, or should I go' dilemma that the Fed faces when considering further rate increases," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. After this week's meeting, Fed officials will release their "dot plot" rate projections for the next few years, plus their collective outlook on inflation, GDP and unemployment. The retreat on inflation, then, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for a Fed that was caught off guard by the big price surge.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Jim Smigiel, Krishna Guha, Guha, Jerome Powell, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Group, SEI, Evercore ISI, Tech, Pantheon Locations: EY

The rate hike "skip" has now become jargon for an emerging compromise between concerns inflation is not yet controlled with fears the economy may slow sharply as banks pull back on credit. "I don't really see a compelling reason to pause," Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said in an interview published Wednesday in the Financial Times. Jefferson acknowledged inflation remains "too high" and that "by some measures progress has been decelerating recently." While Jefferson does not expect a recession, he noted that there are reasons to be careful after 15 months in which the policy rate was raised by 5 percentage points. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Patrick Harker, Harker, Loretta Mester, Michelle Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Cleveland Fed, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Most Fed officials think it's appropriate to take a pause, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMost Fed officials think it's appropriate to take a pause, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on the Fed's interest rate decision, whether he believes a hike or pause is in store, and more.

☆ Priyanka Chopra Jonas's brother played a key role in kickstarting her career
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Alli Rosenbloom | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Priyanka Chopra Jonas’s journey in the limelight began in 2000 when she was crowned Miss World – thanks in part to a nudge from her younger brother, Siddharth Chopra. “We just had one guest room,” Chopra Jonas told Wallace, adding that their father said at the time, “‘She’s a young woman. “Technically, he got his room back.”The Miss World 2000 pageant put Chopra Jonas on an international stage that led her screen career we know today. Ultimately, she told Wallace, she wanted to “spread my wings” and began looking toward a move to America. (From left) Madhu Chopra, Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Siddharth Chopra in 2019 in Mumbai.

☆ The Fed could enact a 'substitute' interest rate hike at its June meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve officials could talk tough enough at their June meeting that it would amount to a de facto interest rate hike. "All Fed officials are being careful not to exclude a June hike with more data to come and we would not completely exclude this either," he added. A "substitute" hike could see the rhetoric out of the June meeting reasserting the Fed's stern commitment to fighting inflation and disinclination toward easing anytime soon. But some taming in the inflation data , stronger economic signals and repeated statements from central bankers that cuts are not in their forecast have caused a shift. Fed fund futures contracts are implying a 4.585% funds rate by the end of the year, from the current 5.08%.

☆ I am expecting a 25 bps rate hike, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI am expecting a 25 bps rate hike, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss expectations for a 25 bps Fed hike, the Fed's credibility concerns, and the probability of a recession this year.

Investors anticipate the U.S. central bank will follow through with a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the end of its latest two-day policy meeting. The policy statement is due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak to reporters half an hour later. But the new statement, and Powell's elaboration on it, will have to reconcile a set of risks that have grown more into conflict. Between that consensus and other problems that have intensified in the meantime, the Fed is likely to at least open the door to the prospect that this hike will be the last of the current tightening cycle, absent a future inflation surprise. Doing otherwise might hint that those projections had changed, a hawkish tilt towards more rate hikes that the Fed won't want to close off but also won't want to guarantee.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss expectations for a 25 bps Fed hike, the Fed's credibility concerns, and the probability of a recession this year.

☆ The First Republic deal has come at a crucial point for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesJPMorgan Chase's takeover of First Republic likely ends the panic phase of the banking crisis, with the fallout left to come in a pivotal week for markets and the economy. Following an unsuccessful effort to keep First Republic open, the largest U.S. bank by deposits reached a deal to take over the 14th-largest financial institution. With financial services covering such a wide swath of activities in the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and now First Republic Bank will reverberate. Stocks nudged higher Monday morning on hopes that the worst of a banking crisis that began in early March has drifted into the rear view. "Resolving FRC should end the 7-week post SVB bank crisis phase."

☆ Fed needs to wrap upcoming rate hike in cotton wool amid banking crisis, says Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed needs to wrap upcoming rate hike in cotton wool amid banking crisis, says Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision.

"This is all a bit of a mess," Krishna Guha, vice chair of ISI Evercore and a former New York Federal Reserve official, wrote ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that has veered from a dead-certain jump in interest rates two weeks ago to a speculative morass. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note - particularly sensitive to Fed policy expectations - rose steadily through the day, adding roughly a quarter of a point from the overnight low and approaching 4%. Analysts trying to parse what recent bank stress might mean said a coming credit contraction could be the equivalent of an additional quarter point Fed rate increase, or as much as a recession-inducing 1.5 percentage points, rendering further rate hikes obsolete. "The emergence of financial stress is likely to indicate to the committee that monetary policy is closer to being 'sufficiently restrictive' than some may have thought previously," BOA economists wrote. "At the very least, stress in financial markets suggests that the Fed should proceed with caution."

☆ Here's what the latest inflation data could mean for the markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what the latest inflation data could mean for the marketsKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, and Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much pressure the Fed has not to raise rates next week, Roland's thoughts on the Federal Reserve's next moves and more.

☆ Inflation gauge increased 0.4% in February, as expected and up 6% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.5% in February and 5.5% on a 12-month basis. The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Inflation rose in February but was in line with expectations, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for another interest rate hike next week despite recent banking industry turmoil. Food prices rose 0.4% and 9.5% respectively. That entails core services inflation minus housing, cohort that increased 0.2% in February and 3.7% from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations.

☆ Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha on the market: It's been a crazy week even by recent standards
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvercore ISI's Krishna Guha on the market: It's been a crazy week even by recent standardsKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to break down his thoughts on Powell's testimony and the market.

☆ Fed's Powell heads to Capitol Hill this week, and he's going to have his hands full
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

It was made worse by the Fed not recognizing it in 2021," said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies. "If you're going to have a no-landing scenario, then you're going to accept 5% inflation, and that's politically unacceptable. He has to work on bringing inflation down, and because the economy is so strong it's going to get delayed. 'Ongoing increases' aheadFor his part, Powell will have to find a landing spot between the competing views on policy. However, Guha said that Powell is unlikely to tee up the half-point, or 50 basis point, rate hike later this month that some investors fear.

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