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☆ Hedge fund turned to a wargame to plan for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-07 | by ( Michael Peck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesIn the second phase of the game, soon after the Chinese invasion began, US forces were said to have engaged and stopped the Chinese amphibious assault, though China continued to bombard Taiwan. Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty ImagesThis caught the hedge fund players by surprise: they had assumed EU sanctions were unlikely because of the depth of China-Europe trade, which reached $815 billion annually in 2023. The hedge fund "agreed that any room for avoiding a total divestment from China and the South China Sea was now completely lost, and market re-entry was probably many years away." The hedge fund responded by choosing to invest heavily in semiconductors manufactured in regions not affected by the war. "This would provide potential opportunities for new players to emerge in the Global South, particularly if loans can be collateralized," Knightsbridge noted.

Persons: Finley Grimble, liquidating, KSG, Daniel Ceng, Knightsbridge, Grimble, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Business, Knightsbridge Strategic, Getty, Treasury, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: British, China, Taiwan, South China, Europe, South America, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Anadolu, South, Ukraine, Africa, East, Southeast Asia, Zimbabwe, Forbes

☆ Warren Buffett's company is so big it's like a mini US economy. Here's what it signals about the state of consumers.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe latest figures from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway suggest consumers are faring better than they were just a year or two ago. Thomson ReutersHomeServicesReal estate brokerage revenues were almost flat and after-tax earnings rose 21%. New home unit sales rose 11% after dropping 20%, but pre-tax earnings fell 10%, similar to their 12% decline last year. But pre-tax earnings jumped 10% due to higher margins and lower operating expenses that offset the lower sales. AdvertisementRetailThe odd one out was the retailing subdivision, where revenues fell 4.5% and pre-tax earnings fell 23%.

Persons: —, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Here's, Thomson, Warren Buffett, Clayton, Rick Wilking, Berkshire, They've, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Thomson Reuters, Clayton Homes, Reuters McLane, Berkhire Hathaway Locations: Warren Buffett's, Berkshire, Renton , Washington, Omaha , Nebraska

☆ China's bond market is rattled as central bank squares off with bond bulls
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A "Buy Treasury bonds" poster is seen at a bank in Haian, East China's Jiangsu province, Aug 1, 2024. "We remain actively bullish," said a bond fund manager, undeterred by unprecedented government moves to cool the sizzling treasury market and arrest a plunge in yields, which move inversely to prices. Falling yields also complicate the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) efforts to stabilize the weakening yuan. Unlike the West, "China's financial markets, including the bond market, are subject to top-down regulation," said Ryan Yonk, economist with the American Institute for Economic Research. Late on Friday, the central bank said it will gradually increase the purchase and sale of treasury bonds in its open market operations.

Persons: Wang Hongfei, Ryan Yonk, Pan Gongsheng, Kiyong Seong, Tan Yiming Organizations: Bank of China's, American Institute for Economic Research, Societe Generale, Minsheng Securities Locations: Haian, East China's Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, China, Asia

☆ Japanese yen carry trade: A very popular trading strategy just blew up in investors’ faces
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.

Persons: CNN Business ’, ”, John Authers, “, it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe

☆ Everything you wanted to know about the market meltdown but were too afraid to ask
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In today's big story, we're giving a full breakdown of what has been a wild few days for the market . Tech: Big Tech is going through a bit of a mid-life crisis . Big Tech is going through a bit of a . There are a few factors at play here:Big Tech, the backbone of the market, had weaker-than-expected earnings last week. The decision could seriously hurt Google's revenue and may signal more antitrust enforcement to come for other Big Tech companies .

Persons: —, Airbnb, Rebecca Zisser, We're, what's, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway, I'm, Claudia Sahm, M, Getty, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jensen Huang, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Griffin, it's, Natalie Ammari, That's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Oracle, Fed, Nvidia, Bank of America, Google Locations: Japan, Berkshire, Omaha, Asia, bitcoin, Florida, New York, London

☆ What the Fed must do to soothe markets after a historic global sell-off, according to JPMorgan strategy chief David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Kelly says the Fed needs to broadcast its confidence in the economy to soothe jittery markets. JPMorgan's David Kelly told Business Insider he sees a possibility for even deeper losses following the big rout. We do stand ready to cut rates as appropriate but we don't think there's a very urgent situation here," Kelly said. More importantly, cutting rates abruptly would potentially instill more fear about the economy among investors, Kelly said. And I don't think the Federal Reserve tells people that, or maybe they don't appreciate it themselves," Kelly said, adding, "It's a drag before it's a stimulus."

Persons: Kelly, JPMorgan's David Kelly, —, David Kelly, Monday's, we've, Dow Jones Organizations: Fed, Service, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ The stock market's recession playbook is in full effect
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.

Persons: —, it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research

Signs of a slowing U.S. economy sowed panic among investors on Monday, with a sell-off in markets that began last week turning into a global rout. The moves were a sharp reversal in major stock markets, which for much of the past year have risen to new heights, propelled by optimism about cooling inflation, solid labor markets and the promise of artificial intelligence technology. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index fell more than 10 percent at one point. Japanese stocks have been on a tear for more than a year, fueled by a weak Japanese yen. Adding to the pressure, foreign investors have started selling off positions in Japanese stocks over the last few weeks.

Persons: ”, Andrew Brenner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jordi Basco Carrera, ’, Basco Carrera, Jitters, Jesper Koll, Koll, John Liu, Melissa Eddy Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, National Alliance Securities, Equity, Technology, Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, Intel, Allianz, Monex, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Locations: Asia, Europe, Americas, Japan, U.S, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, China, Stocks, India, Netherlands, Switzerland, New York, Munich, “, New, Seoul, Berlin

☆ UBS says 'going into Japan now is like catching a falling knife,' warns stock sell-off will continue
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowGoing into the Japanese market at this moment is akin to catching "a falling knife," Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon"The only reason why the Japanese market is up so strongly in the last two years is because the Japanese yen has been very, very weak. It strengthened sharply after the BOJ raised its benchmark interest rate last week to around 0.25% and decided to trim its purchases of Japanese government bonds. A stronger yen pressurizes Japanese stock markets, which are heavily dominated by trading houses and export-oriented firms by eroding their competitiveness. Ueda also said the 0.5% interest rate level — Japan has not seen that since 2008 — was not a barrier, and rates could go even higher.

Persons: Kelvin Tay, CNBC's, Tay, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, — Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Nikkei, U.S, Bank of, Reuters Locations: Japan

☆ Wall Street’s Turbulent Week Ends With Another Drop
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Danielle Kaye | More About Danielle Kaye | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Stocks skidded on Friday, capping off a turbulent week for Wall Street, as investors were jolted by data showing that hiring slowed and unemployment rose in July. The S&P 500 fell 2.4 percent within the hour after the jobs report was released, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3 percent. Yields on government bonds, which are sensitive to expectations for the economy, dropped sharply, and oil prices were lower too. The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, much fewer than economists had expected and a significant drop from the average of 215,000 jobs added over the previous 12 months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest level since October 2021.

Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq Locations: U.S

Jade Gao | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China is not planning additional stimulus for the second half of the year, according to officials from the economic planning agency and finance ministry. Those official figures have raised concerns about whether China can achieve its full-year target of around 5% growth. China will put "promoting consumption in a more prominent role," Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters Thursday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He reiterated that authorities would work for the "healthy" development of real estate and ensuring the delivery of pre-sold apartments. For example, Lu'an City in Anhui province announced Thursday it was issuing 1.5 million yuan in coupons for discounts on eating out at restaurants, 3 million yuan for buying home goods and 3 million yuan for car purchases.

Persons: Jade Gao, Zhao Chenxin, Lin Zechang, Zhao, Yuan Da, Yuan Organizations: Central Business District, Afp, Getty, National Development, Reform Commission, CNBC, Ministry of Finance Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Lu'an City, Anhui

☆ Bank of Japan raises benchmark interest rate, outlines roadmap for trimming bond buying program
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of Japan headquarters (top C) is seen in Tokyo on December 19, 2023. Japan's central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate to "around 0.25%" from it previous range of 0% to 0.1% and outlined its plan to taper its bond buying program. The BOJ said it will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, assuming its economic outlook is realized. As of its March release, the bank said that purchases of JGB's amounted to about 6 trillion yen per month. The BOJ's JGB holdings currently stand at a whopping 579 trillion yen as of July 19, according to CNBC's calculations.

Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan's

☆ Analyst: JGB yields unlikely to be 'selling off a lot' if Trump becomes president
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAnalyst: JGB yields unlikely to be 'selling off a lot' if Trump becomes presidentCarol Lye, portfolio manager and senior research analyst at Brandywine Global, discusses the outlook for Japanese government bonds.

Persons: Trump, Carol Lye Organizations: Brandywine Global

☆ The Sahm Rule Hints at Recession, But Don’t Panic - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Do you remember the 2023 recession? But back in 2022 there were so many confident predictions of imminent recession that I wonder whether some people have the vague sense that they must have come true. I could have told you at the time that this analogy was wrong, and in fact I did. The inflation doomerism of 2022, I’m tempted to say, was the least responsible economic projection, at least by mainstream economists, made in the past 40 years. When it inverts — when long-term rates are lower than short-term rates — this has historically predicted a recession (recessions are the shaded areas on the chart):

Persons: I’m

☆ Japan's central bank starts its monetary policy meeting today. Here's what's in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty ImagesJapan's central bank kicks off its July monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with traders focused on its decision on interest rate and government bond purchases. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to increase its benchmark interest rate to 0.1% from the current range of 0% to 0.1%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in June that the central bank could raise rates "depending on economic, price and financial data and information available at the time," Reuters reported. "Our decision on bond-buying taper and interest rate hikes are two different things," Ueda told the country's parliament. The headline inflation rate has been above the BOJ's 2% target for more than two years.

Persons: Javier Ghersi, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Bond Organizations: Bank of, Reuters, ING, Bank of America, realty, Bank of Japan, Japanese Trade Union Confederation Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ Robyn Grew: AI won’t be making decisions ‘anytime soon,’ says top hedge fund CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —The head of one of the world’s biggest hedge funds says artificial intelligence systems are unlikely to replace traders anytime soon. London-based Man Group, whose assets under management hit an all-time high of $178.2 billion during the first six months of the year, makes its money by charging investors management and performance fees. “I don’t think of AI as making investment decisions anytime soon,” Grew said. In the interview with CNN, Grew said the era of rock-bottom interest rates that broadly defined the decade following the 2008 financial crisis had made way for a period of “volatility and dispersion” ushered in by the rise in inflation after the pandemic. In other words, traders navigating a volatile market can expect to make a greater range of — and possibly bigger — returns across various assets than during more stable times.

Persons: Robyn Grew, ” Grew, “, Grew Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Man Group, Surgeons, ”, London Stock Exchange Locations: London

☆ China to use ultra-long bonds for consumer, trade-in policy support as worries about retail sales slump grow
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC | Evelyn ChengSHANGHAI — China on Thursday announced its most targeted measures yet for boosting consumption, which has remained lackluster since the Covid-19 pandemic. Authorities announced they would allocate 300 billion Chinese yuan ($41.5 billion) in ultra-long special government bonds to expand an existing trade-in and equipment upgrade policy. He noted how the new policy links Beijing's ultra-long bond program — announced in March — with consumption. The National Development and Reform Commission on Thursday then announced the expanded policy to support consumption. He noted that the 300 billion yuan designation also reflects "a new way of thinking" which can have impact at scale.

Persons: Evelyn Cheng, Zong Liang, —, Zong, Bruce Pang Organizations: CNBC, Thursday, Authorities, National Development, Reform, Ministry of Finance, Bank of, People's Bank of Locations: Evelyn Cheng SHANGHAI, China, People's Bank of China, JLL

☆ Stock market today: Stocks waffle after sell-off as traders mull tech weakness and GDP data
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew at 2.8% in the second quarter, much more than expected. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter. Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:AdvertisementMeanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%.

Persons: Stocks, —, Mike Owens, Dan Ives, Chris Zaccarelli, Brent Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Traders, Investors, Federal Reserve, Saxo, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Securities, West Texas Locations: China, Here's

☆ Ukraine Strikes Preliminary $20 Billion Debt Restructuring Deal
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Constant Méheut | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Ukraine said Monday that it had struck a preliminary deal with a group of international private creditors to restructure more than $20 billion of the debt it owes them, a step that would save the war-torn country billions and preserve funds to support its battered armed forces. The creditors agreed to write off more than a third of the nominal value of the government bonds they hold, which would allow Ukraine to save $11.4 billion over the next three years, the Ukrainian government said. The deal has been approved by the International Monetary Fund, which has made its financial assistance to Ukraine conditional on the country’s ability to reduce its debt. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, said in a statement that the deal “allows us to free up resources for our defense, social spending and reconstruction.”The deal was signed with the largest group of creditors, representing about a quarter of private bondholders. Two-thirds of all bondholders must approve the agreement for it to take effect.

Persons: Denys Shmyhal, Olena Bilan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Dragon Locations: Ukraine, Kyiv

Benefits of passive income strategiesWhat makes passive income strategies so appealing are the benefits, such as:Requires less ongoing effort: Compared to working full-time, passive income requires significantly less time and effort. Drawbacks of passive income strategiesWhile the concept of earning passive income sounds attractive, it's crucial that you understand all the risks involved and that you manage your expectations accordingly. Some of the major drawbacks of passive income strategies are:Unpredictability: The success of passive income strategies can be unpredictable and are generally out of your hands. Passive income — Frequently asked questions (FAQs)How much money do I need to start generating passive income? While some passive income streams require consistent minimal effort after the initial setup, other passive income strategies may require more extensive hands-on maintenance or monitoring.

Persons: Tiffany Grant, there's, wouldn't, Bonds, Melissa Jean, Baptiste, Grant, You'll, you'll Organizations: Coca, US Treasury, Federal Reserve, IRS

☆ How the UK plans to prevent another Liz Truss 'mini-budget' crisis — which triggered huge bond sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON — The new U.K. government is on Thursday set to propose legislation to prevent "significant uncosted measures" from being announced without an analysis of their impact on public finances. The OBR would be able to produce its analysis at the time of its choosing, according to notes on the bill released Wednesday. The notes contain a veiled reference to what became known as the British "mini-budget crisis" under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Shortly after taking up their posts in early September 2022, Truss and Kwarteng announced a raft of tax cuts in an unscheduled fiscal announcement that was described by analysts as "seismic." Both Truss and Kwarteng resigned over the turmoil after less than two months in their respective offices, and the majority of the measures were reversed.

Persons: Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Truss Organizations: Labour, Finance, U.S, Bank of England Locations: British

☆ Institutions snapping up Chinese treasury bonds are shorting the economy, state media says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Financial institutions snapping up Chinese government bonds are basically shorting the Chinese economy, China's central bank-backed Financial News reported on Saturday, citing what it said were the views of industry sources and experts. It came after the paper said late on Friday that China's central bank is determined to maintain a normal upward-sloping yield curve and correct bond-market risks. The move shows the central bank's desire to stabilise exchange rate and economic expectations, Financial News reported, citing unnamed experts. "Financial institutions frantically snapping up government bonds equals to expecting that interest rates will get lower and lower in the future," the paper said. "They are basically shorting China's yuan and the Chinese economy, increasing the pressure for capital outflows."

Persons: PBOC Organizations: Financial, People's Bank of China Locations: outflows

☆ Goldman's $2.8 trillion asset management arm says the S&P 500 will be 'flattish' for the rest of 2024. 5 places it says to invest your money instead.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-14 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Don't expect the mammoth returns of the S&P 500 to continue this year, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management's midyear investment outlook released last week. AdvertisementBut this doesn't mean that Goldman Sachs is expecting a severe downturn. Active management is more important now than ever, and Goldman Sachs recommends taking steps now to prepare for a lukewarm second half of 2024. To address geopolitical instability and financial shocks, Goldman Sachs recommends hedging risk through commodities. Goldman Sachs is seeing increasing opportunities in Asia.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alexis Deladerrière, —, Lindsay Rosner, Rosner, Deladerrière, it's Organizations: Service, Goldman, Business, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Fed Locations: Mexico, France, East, Ukraine, industrials, underperformance, Asia, Japan, India

Instead, buying gold makes sense if it's a way to diversify my investments — and gold IRAs work well. Before buying gold, he told me to consider all the other costs I might face. Investing in gold can diversify your portfolioSkelhorn did confirm that investing in gold could be a good way to diversify my portfolio. However, he said that before buying gold bars, we should understand there could be added fees depending on how we buy and store it. Whether you're opening a Gold IRA or buying physical gold to diversify your portfolio, Goldco can help you seamlessly navigate the process.

Persons: Jake Skelhorn, —, we're, Skelhorn, it's Organizations: Service, IRA

☆ 'Blowout' in French borrowing costs still to come amid economic deadlock, veteran investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

watch nowFrench borrowing costs still face a "blowout" over those of Germany, as political and economic reality sets in following the country's parliamentary election, according to veteran investor David Roche. Bond yields move inversely to prices and represent the change in borrowing costs for a government — also indicating long-term investor confidence in the economy. Now, my view is that it will happen," Roche told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday. watch nowAlong with economic growth prospects, a key watch-point for investors is France's hefty budget deficit and high debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%. There are about seven major pillars, they suddenly will go absolutely nowhere, which is disastrous for Europe," Roche told CNBC.

Persons: David Roche, Jean, Claude Trichet, —, Emmanuel Macron, Roche, CNBC's, shorting, Macron, " Roche Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, Quantum, French National Assembly, European Commission, National Locations: Germany, France, Europe, Italy, Ukraine

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