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If the Fed's holdings of long-dated securities were shrinking like other parts of the curve, or even at all, more of these bonds would be available to the wider market. Wang recognizes that if the Fed held fewer longer-dated securities these yields might be even higher, but also points out that the Fed's holdings are largely determined by what Treasury issues. All told, the Fed's 'QT 2' is almost twice the pace of QT 1. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsSince the Fed started QT 2, its total holdings of Treasury bills and bonds have fallen to $4.93 trillion from $5.77 trillion. The average profile of Fed-held Treasury debt is longer than total outstanding Treasury debt, and getting longer.
Persons: Sukree, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Joseph Wang, Wang, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Neel Kashkari, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Rights, Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Monetary, Minneapolis, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Durham
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the selloff of U.S. bonds could reflect a mismatch in supply, rather than serious concerns about further hikes in interest rates or heightened concerns about long-term risks. "We're not seeing a huge decline in risk appetite in equity markets and credit markets, so it's a little bit odd," he said. "If you're looking at the U.S. Treasury market, maybe there's a question about who the buyers might be in the context where the government is also issuing quite a bit of that stuff." "In good times, that's a time to maybe reduce the deficit so that you can expand them when times are bad," he said. "The markets are asked to absorb a lot of debt out there ... maybe there is a little bit less appetite for that.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, that's, Andrea Shalal, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Monetary Fund, selloff, World Bank, U.S . Treasury Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, Marrakech
サマリー Global growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% in 2023Inflation dropping but 'not quite there yet'-IMF chief economistIMF raises U.S. forecast, cuts outlook for China, euro areaMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro area and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the "remarkable strength" of the U.S. economy. The IMF left its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), but cut its 2024 forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% from its July forecast. "The global economy is showing resilience. "We see a global economy that is limping along and it's not quite sprinting yet." It left Japan's 2024 growth outlook unchanged at 1.0%.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, It's, it's, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: IMF, Monetary Fund, Economic, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Reuters, Labor, U.S, autoworkers Locations: China, MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, United States, Japan
Chinese officials must take "forceful action" to address the problems in its property sector, an IMF official said. "Clearly what this is calling for is forceful action by the authorities," he said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe chief economist of the International Monetary Fund cautioned that Beijing authorities must enact robust policy to address the issues plaguing China's property sector. "Clearly what this is calling for is forceful action by the authorities," Gourinchas said, according to Bloomberg.
Persons: , Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, IMF Locations: Beijing, Marrakesh, Morocco, Evergrande, Gourinchas, China
Oct 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's remarks, that he believes the Fed has finished raising rates, will help Asian markets pick up on Wednesday from where global markets left off on Tuesday. "I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore," said Bostic, following the dovish path set by two Fed colleagues on Monday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday also struck a similar tone, leading investors to think that the Fed 'pivot' is underway. All else equal this should lower the dollar and U.S. yields, boost risk appetite, and lift Asian and emerging markets.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Raphael Bostic's, Neel Kashkari, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Fed's Bowman, Waller, Collins, Josie Kao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, IMF, World Bank, Atlanta Fed, Fed, . Minneapolis, Monetary Fund, Hang, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Morocco, Israel, Gaza, Marrakech, Bostic, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal economy 'limping along' below pre-pandemic growth level, IMF's chief economist saysPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the research department at the International Monetary Fund, discusses divergences in global growth, resilience in the U.S. and revisions to the IMF's outlook.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: U.S
The IMF’s projections for growth and inflation are “increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario… especially in the United States,” Gourinchas continued. The 20 countries using the euro are expected to grow collectively by 0.7% this year and 1.2% next year, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively from July. The IMF upgraded its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024 — an improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively. “The strongest recovery among major economies has been in the United States,” the IMF said. The IMF revised its forecasts for global inflation to 6.9% this year and 5.8% next year — an increase of 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage points respectively.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Qilai Shen, Gourinchas Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent Locations: United States, China, Europe, Ukraine, Guangzhou, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia
China Daily via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Global growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% in 2023Inflation dropping but 'not quite there yet'-IMF chief economistIMF raises U.S. forecast, cuts outlook for China, euro areaMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro zone and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the "remarkable strength" of the U.S. economy. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF left its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% but cut its 2024 forecast to 2.9% from its July forecast of 3.0%. Even in 2028, the IMF is projecting global growth of just 3.1%. You put all these things together and you have a slowdown in medium-term growth," Gourinchas told Reuters. If the real estate crisis deepened, China's growth could be lowered by as much as 1.6% percentage point, which in turn would knock 0.6 percentage points off global growth, Gourinchas said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, It's, it's, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, IMF, Monetary Fund, World Bank, Reuters, Research, Labor, U.S, autoworkers, Thomson Locations: Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, COVID, Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, United States, Japan
The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from an expected 3% this year. “The global economy is limping along, not sprinting," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a news conference during the organization's annual meeting in Marrakech, Morocco. If sustained, a 10% increase in oil prices would reduce global economic growth by 0.15% and increase global inflation by 0.4%, Gourinchas said. So far, the increase in oil prices has been “fairly muted,” said Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch. The United States is a standout in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which was completed before the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Gourinchas, “ We’ve, , Carsten Fritsch Organizations: Hamas, International Monetary Fund, IMF, United Arab, U.S . Federal Reserve, Saudi Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, Morocco, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, United States, U.S, Europe, Russia, Beijing
IMF Says It's Too Soon to Assess Economic Impact
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The top economist at the International Monetary Fund said it is too soon to tell whether the war between Israel and Hamas will have broad economic consequences. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the conflict risks creating an energy-supply shock, which could raise oil prices, feed inflation and reduce growth. IMF research shows a 10% increase in oil prices reduces global economic growth by 0.15 percentage point. While oil prices have jumped since the fighting started, Gourinchas said the increases may not last. I think it's too early to really assess what the impact might be," he said, at the IMF's annual meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: Israel, Marrakesh, Morocco
That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe
Ruined rice crops in India's Haryana state. More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports. India's rice stock is piling up as a result of the ban. Vijay Bedi/CNNAt one of New Delhi’s largest rice trading hubs, there are fears among traders that the export ban will cause catastrophic consequences. “The export ban has left traders with huge amounts of stock,” said rice trader Roopkaran Singh.
Persons: India CNN — Satish Kumar, “ I’ve, , Kumar, Vijay Bedi, Niño, ” Kumar, ” Satish Kumar, Ukraine —, ” Arif Husain, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Husain, , CNN Surjit Singh, Harayana, , El Niño, Roopkaran Singh, Husain Organizations: India CNN, CNN, United Nations Food, Agriculture Organization, India wasn’t, United Nations, Food Programme, ” Workers, Thai Rice, Association, India’s Ministry of Agriculture, Monetary Fund, Farmers, Reuters, Meteorological Organization Locations: Harayana, India, India’s Haryana, , India's Haryana, Ukraine, Global South, United States, Russia, Rice, New Delhi, CNN Nepal, Vietnam, Thailand, Thai, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, El, India’s, West Africa
"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine
WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it is now projecting Argentina's economy will contract 2.5% in 2023, with a year-end inflation rate of about 120%, largely due to a crippling drought that has curtailed agricultural production. "Argentina is facing a very difficult situation particularly that's made worse by the drought, the agricultural drought it has been facing in the last year or so," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told a news conference. The Argentina forecast, a steep downgrade from an April projection of 0.2% growth in 2023, stands in stark contrast to a slightly improved outlook for global growth in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook projections. Gourinchas declined to comment on how the forecasts may affect negotiations with Argentina over its $44 billion IMF loan program. IMF deputy research director Petya Koeva-Brooks said the inflation projection of 120% would require some moderation of inflation rates and would require implementing macroeconomic policies agreed between the IMF and Argentina.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Petya Koeva, Brooks, David Lawder, Chizu Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, The, Thomson Locations: Argentina
TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan should start preparing for future monetary tightening by moving away from its yield control policy, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. They have also said the BOJ was mindful of the cost of YCC such as market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Widening the allowance band around its 10-year yield target, a step it took last December, could be among options to mitigate the side-effects of YCC, analysts say. Growth in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the effect of past stimulus measures dissipate, the IMF said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Toru Hanai, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund’s, REUTERS, Reuters Locations: TOKYO, WASHINGTON, Tokyo, Japan
watch nowThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the global economy, turning slightly more positive despite slowing momentum from China. In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage point to 3%, up from 2.8% in its April assessment. "The global economy continues to gradually recover from the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In China, the recovery following the reopening of its economy shows signs of losing steam amid continued concerns about the property sector, with implications for the global economy," Gourinchas said. This is due to weaker manufacturing output and lower growth performance during the first quarter of this year, the IMF said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Cyrus de la Rubia Organizations: Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Hamburg Commercial Bank Locations: China, Ukraine, U.S, United States, Beijing, Germany
REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File PhotoWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2023 global growth estimates slightly given resilient economic activity in the first quarter, but warned that persistent challenges were dampening the medium-term outlook. The 2023-2024 growth forecast remains weak by historical standards, well below the annual average of 3.8% seen in 2000-2019, largely due to weaker manufacturing in advanced economies, and it could stay at that level for years. This was also related to the aging of the global population, especially in countries like China, Germany and Japan, he said. The impact of higher interest rates was especially evident in poorer countries, driving debt costs higher and limiting room for priority investments. It left its forecast for growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, unchanged at 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Ken Cedeno, we're, Gourinchas, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Research Department IMF, International Monetary Fund, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Monetary Fund, IMF, Reuters, Health, El, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, China, Germany, Japan, United States, Ukraine
Minneapolis CNN —The global economy is showing more resilience than economists previously thought — but, although some risks have abated, choppy waters could still be ahead, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. In its latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the agency said it expects global growth of 3% in both 2023 and 2024. “Global economic activity has proven resilient in the first quarter of this year, leading to a modest upward revision for global growth in 2023,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said in a statement. From 2000 to 2019, annual global economic growth averaged 3.8%, according to the IMF. When looking across the global economy, there are concerns that China’s recovery could slow further, as its debt-laden real estate sector weighs on growth, according to the report.
Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Chris Ratcliffe, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, , Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, International Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing, Federal Reserve Locations: Minneapolis, Oxford, United Kingdom, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Yantai, Shandong province, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal economy 'not out of the woods' yet despite growth forecast hike, says IMF chief economistIMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what investors should take away from the IMF's latest forecast bump, whether now may not be a good time to end the Federal Reserve's rate campaign, and more.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas
The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to change course with its rate-hiking cycle. "We don't yet see a significant slowdown in lending. The Federal Reserve in a May banks report warned that lenders are worried about conditions ahead, as trouble in mid-sized financial institutions in the U.S. caused banks to tighten lending standards for households and businesses. A majority of major global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have tightened their monetary policy aggressively to tame soaring inflation. Meanwhile, the world's global debt has swelled to a near-record high of $305 trillion, according to the Institute of International Finance.
Persons: Georgieva, Kristalina Georgieva, Karen Tso, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, IIF Organizations: Monetary Fund, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Institute of International Finance Locations: Dubrovnik, Croatia, U.S
It won't happen overnight" as the public must be convinced Japan won't fall back to deflation, Gourinchas said, adding it was "too early" for the BOJ to tighten policy. While it was appropriate to keep interest rates ultra-low, the BOJ must keep in mind the experience of other central banks that are still struggling to tame high inflation. So, there is a need to be vigilant and to be ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation remains too elevated." He also said it would be "very difficult" to tighten monetary policy while maintaining YCC, due to the challenge of determining the appropriate level for two rate targets. And then, if the need arises to tighten monetary policy, it can do so as part of the usual tightening of the policy rate," he said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Japan, TOKYO
FILE PHOTO: A participant stands near a logo of IMF at the International Monetary Fund - World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. REUTERS/Johannes P. Christo/File PhotoPARIS (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund remains concerned about recent turbulence in the banking sector despite actions by the U.S. and Swiss authorities to deal with troubled banks on their watch, its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Monday. Speaking to journalists in Paris, he added that “the story is not over” and that EU banks were not immune to problems as long as the bloc did not go further to complete long-discussed mechanisms to deal with failed banks.
The experts were worried about a so-called wage-price spiral. Businesses' revenues "have risen faster than costs, and so margins have room to absorb rising labor costs." "It's not that a wage-price spiral couldn't happen, but it's low on the list of concerns versus the factors we know are problematic," she said. A key mechanism that would fuel a wage-price spiral, workers' bargaining power, has been weakened because unions have less power than in the 1970s, Makszin added. "But if you let interest rates go down against inflation and in effect weaken, you have an inflation spiral.
REUTERS/Ken CedenoWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Zambia could lose gains achieved so far from macroeconomic reforms if its ongoing debt restructuring is further delayed, Treasury Secretary Felix Nkulukusa said on Wednesday. The next IMF payout to Zambia from the loan is contingent upon its bilateral creditors reaching an agreement on the long-delayed debt restructuring. The country recently completed the first review of the programme, and the next one is expected in about three months. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, director of the IMF's Strategy Policy and Review Department, was more optimistic about Zambia's debt restructuring during the panel. The IMF official said that creditors have asked to share and exchange information "sooner" during debt restructuring talks, and added that the Washington-based lender is willing to do so.
Sydney Harbour taking in the Harbour Bridge, Opera House and ferries at sunrise during the COVID-19 pandemic on April 20, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. Markets in the Asia-Pacific mostly rose on Wednesday as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will determine the Federal Reserve's path forward in its tightening cycle. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 6% year-over-year increase in the U.S. consumer price index. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized in an interview with Yahoo Finance overnight that the central bank will remain "data dependent." In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% and the Topix gained 0.6% as traders further digested Japan's producer price index and machinery orders report.
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