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The Fed's policy-setting committee projected it would continue raising rates to above 5% in 2023, a level not seen since a steep economic downturn in 2007. Money market participants currently expect at least two 25 bps rate hikes next year and borrowing costs to peak at 4.9% in the first half, before falling to around 4.4% by the year end. Wall Street's main indexes have staged a strong recovery since hitting 2022 lows in October on hopes of a less aggressive Fed, but the rally stalled in December on the back of mixed economic data and worrying corporate forecasts. Investors also digested economic data on Thursday that showed a steeper-than-expected decline in retail sales in November and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling last week, indicating a tight labor market. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 24 new highs and 120 new lows.
Quantitative tightening, or QT, could see the ECB shrink its gigantic bond portfolio. "We expect the ECB to raise its policy rates by 50 bp at the December meeting," said Michael Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis, in a recent research note. "We also expect an announcement of Quantitative Tightening next year, though the ECB is unlikely to provide a specific start date at this point." Another hot topic for the ECB's Governing Council, which concludes its meeting Thursday with a press conference, will, of course, be inflation and possible peak inflation. "While Inflation likely peaked in October, we see core inflation lingering above 5% until mid 2023 before trending lower," said Anatoli Annenkov at Societe Generale in a recent research note.
The market for cloud computing, business software, artificial intelligence and other so-called enterprise technologies has been a relative bright spot. “During times of economic uncertainty, companies look for ways where technology can drive growth and create more economic value faster,” said Juan Perez, chief information officer at Salesforce Inc. When budgets are under scrutiny, companies tend to focus on short-term solutions that can drive efficiency and productivity, Salesforce’s Mr. Perez said. Companies should take this opportunity to reconsider the pace of hiring and employ freelance workers where it makes sense. Additionally, CIOs say they are looking at the opportunity to hire valuable workers who lost their jobs at other companies or renew technology contracts on more favorable terms.
In a note to clients on Monday, Seliger said investment-grade corporate credit in particular is in for a big year. Investment-grade corporate bonds are those rated Baa by Moody's and BBB by S&P and Fitch because they're deemed to have low default risk. "This base case scenario implies a +12.9% total return and +379bps excess return for IG corporate bonds in 2023. Bank of AmericaBank of America's November survey of bond investors showed that both high yield bond investors and investment-grade bond investors expect BBB-rated bonds to outperform most relative to Treasurys in 2023. The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) are two ways to gain exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds.
But according to Bill Smead, a 42-year market vet and the founder and CIO of Smead Capital Management, the group is still overvalued. Smead Capital Management"As you can see, it took years for the tech bubble stocks of 1999 to get interesting. Smead also included a chart on the average valuation of the top 100 tech stocks, which still shows historically elevated levels. Smead Capital Management"Hannibal Lecter said to Clarisse in the movie The Silence of the Lambs, 'Have the lambs stopped screaming?' Smead's views in contextSmead's view that tech stocks are overvalued is shared by some.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA soft landing may be more in reach than anticipated, says Sand Hill Global CIOBrenda Vingiello, Sand Hill Global Advisors chief investment officer, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down her market forecast ahead of the open on Friday.
Amid the tough backdrop, Minerd shared two areas where he thinks investors can find return. "That's a much better place to go with your money than the stock market," Minerd said. "If you look at defense stocks year-to-date, they're generally high. And so I think there's a lot more upside in defense stocks, both relatively in the short run and in the next five years." Funds like the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) and the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) offer diversified exposure to defense stocks.
Cyber and information security has been at the top of their agenda since 2020. Newsletter Sign-up WSJ | CIO Journal The Morning Download delivers daily insights and news on business technology from the CIO Journal team. Gartner forecasts that worldwide information security and risk-management spending by end-users will reach $188.336 billion in 2023, up 11.3% from the current year. It’s what boards are talking about,” said Truist Financial Corp. Chief Information Security Officer Howard Whyte. He and Truist CIO Scott Case work closely to understand the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank’s changing attack surface and cybersecurity risk.
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