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The earthquake that struck Morocco on Friday night hit near Marrakesh, a popular tourist destination, sending both residents and visitors scrambling for safety. “We didn’t know if we had to stand up, to sit down, to run,” Mr. Ait Chari said. Ms. Lorang and hundreds of others found refuge in a courtyard, where some brought out rugs and blankets to sleep. “It was very chaotic.”Mr. Ait Chari, the tour guide, said he was supposed to pick up more clients on Sunday but was unsure flights would be maintained. Many people were still in shock, he said, but there had also been “great solidarity,” as residents cleared roads.
Persons: , Jen Lorang, ” Ms, Lorang, “ I’ve, Mr, Ait, , Jean, Baptiste Guinet Organizations: Big, , UNESCO, Heritage, Tourism, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development Locations: Morocco, Marrakesh, Ait Chari, Massachusetts, Seattle, San Francisco, ” Morocco, Agadir, , Taroudant
A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections. In a recent letter to the Senate Budget Committee, economists at the Congressional Budget Office described the huge reductions in its Medicare forecasts between 2010 and 2020. Medicare is growing more slowly than ever, but still more quickly than the rest of the federal budget.
Persons: Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, that’s, , David Cutler, Cutler, haven’t, I’ve, Melinda Buntin, Buntin, Simpson, Bowles, aren’t, Trump, Joshua Gordon, Mitt Romney’s, , Sherry Glied Organizations: Medicare, , U.S, Budget, Harvard, Obama, Affordable, Senate, Congressional, New York Times, Office, White, Office of Management, Johns Hopkins, Social Security, Congress, Federal, Veterans, NASA, Wagner School Locations: Iraq, Afghanistan, N.Y.U, Washington
The renewed discussion hasn’t done much to revive the prospects of Japan’s own Communist Party, however. Mr. Saito is not a fan of the group, which he sees as well-meaning but stale. And even in rich nations, he does not call for people to give up their creature comforts. He recently moved into a three-story home in an upscale neighborhood on the outskirts of Tokyo and drives a compact Toyota. Achieving degrowth communism, he believes, is less about personal choices and more about changing overarching political and economic structures.
Persons: Saito, Mahbub ul Haq Organizations: Communist Party, Chinese Communist Party, Toyota, United Nations Locations: Soviet Union, Tokyo, G.D.P
To an extent that few Americans genuinely appreciate, global growth has been powered by the so-called Chinese miracle for almost half a century now. grew by 30 percent and China’s by 263 percent — China accounted for more than 40 percent of all global growth. If you excluded China from the data, global G.D.P. In 1992, China’s G.D.P. Quite likely not somewhere great, even if the world’s great powers manage to avoid direct conflict.
Persons: , China’s, David Oks, Henry Williams, Ricardo Hausmann, Tim Sahay, Narendra Modi Organizations: World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School Locations: China, Asia, United States, India
This is especially true if you’re comparing a high-income economy like the United States with a middle-income nation like China or, even more so, with a low-income country like India. In such a world, countries would have to be competitive in the production of traded goods, so their wage rates in dollars would reflect their productivity in tradable goods (like the airplanes), not nontradable goods (like the haircuts). Such countries have high wages, but these wages are reflected in higher prices for nontradables and hence in an overall higher price level than in poorer countries. I won’t try to do a rigorous or comprehensive test, just provide an illustrative figure with a few important economies. Here’s the price level in several countries, as measured by the ratio of dollar G.D.P.
Persons: Samuelson, Bela Balassa, Paul Samuelson Locations: United States, China, India, nontradables
But it would make gross output go up because there’s a new B2B purchase involved. It’s at least conceivable that gross output is a leading indicator of the economy. Gross output adjusted for inflation peaked in the same quarter as gross domestic product in 2007, when the deep recession of 2007-9 began. Skousen has created his own version of gross output that’s even bigger than the government’s because it has even more deliberate double counting. His gross output number for this year’s first quarter was more than $58 trillion at an annual rate.
Persons: Gross, Mark Skousen, Finn Kydland, Skousen, David Ranson Organizations: Chapman University in, HCWE Locations: Chapman University in Orange, Calif, G.D.P
The fallout from Fitch’s downgrade continuesStocks appear set to open lower today, after falling yesterday in the wake of Fitch Ratings downgrading the United States’s AAA credit rating. But others have said Fitch’s move, while largely symbolic, still points to long-term troubles for the nation and its fiscal health. “There is no willingness on any side to really tackle the underlying challenges,” Mr. Francis said. But “it doesn’t really matter much,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., told CNBC yesterday, echoing a common refrain to Fitch’s move. Critics of the move noted that according to criteria laid out last year by Fitch itself, including debt-to-G.D.P.
Persons: Richard Francis, Fitch’s, standoffs, ” Mr, Francis, ” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s, Fitch Organizations: Fitch, United States’s AAA, Wall, U.S, Times, JPMorgan, CNBC Locations: U.S
How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World
  + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Lauren Leatherby | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +18 min
1990 Younger populations Workingage Older populations For decades, the world’s dominant powers have benefited from large working-age populations that help drive economic growth. Russia U.K. France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S. U.S. Japan U.S. Japan China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C. Russia U.K. France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S. U.S. U.S. Japan Japan China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C. Russia U.K. France Pakistan China U.S. U.S. U.S. Japan Japan China China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C. Russia U.K. France Pakistan China U.S. U.S. U.S. Japan Japan China China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C.
Persons: That’s, , Mikko Myrskylä, Max Planck, Carolina Cardona, Philip O’Keefe, , O’Keefe, Myrskylä, “ We’ve, , aren’t, Mr Organizations: Korea Germany Italy Russia United, France, France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S ., U.S, China India Nigeria D.R.C, France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S . U.S, France Pakistan, France Pakistan China U.S . U.S, for Demographic Research, Youth, Niger, Dem, Central African Rep, Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Rep, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Kosovo, Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal Moldova Romania, Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal Moldova Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia, Hong Kong North Korea Japan Mongolia South Korea Taiwan Northern America, New Zealand, New, Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Central African Rep, Chad Comoros, Congo Ivory Coast Dem, Johns Hopkins University, Aging, ARC Center of Excellence, Aging Research, World Bank, Spain Taiwan, Young, Korea, Spain, Locations: Japan, Western Europe, South Korea, Britain, Eastern Europe, China, Europe, India, East Asia, Florida, United States, South, Southeast Asia, Africa, Korea Germany Italy, Korea Germany Italy Russia United States France China Thailand United Kingdom, South Korea Brazil Colombia China Thailand Iran Myanmar Vietnam Bangladesh Indonesia, South Africa Myanmar Indonesia Bangladesh Philippines Pakistan Kenya Indonesia Egypt Ethiopia, Russia, France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S, France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S . U.S, Japan U.S, Japan China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C, Indonesia Indonesia Brazil Brazil Brazil, China Japan India Brazil, Pakistan France China U.S, Japan India Nigeria Brazil Indonesia, Pakistan U.S, China India Nigeria, Ethiopia Brazil Indonesia, France Pakistan Pakistan China China U.S . U.S . U.S, Japan Japan China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C, France Pakistan China, France Pakistan China U.S . U.S . U.S, Japan Japan China China India India India Nigeria Nigeria Ethiopia D.R.C, Congo Somalia, Angola Tanzania Nigeria, Afghanistan Ethiopia Tajikistan Kenya, Asia, Oceania, Kenya, Demographically, South Asia, Singapore, Albania, Austria Belarus Belgium Bosnia, Herzegovina Bulgaria, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy, Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Kosovo Latvia Lithuania Netherlands, Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal, Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal Moldova Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia, Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal Moldova Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine, Eastern Asia, Hong Kong North Korea Japan Mongolia South Korea Taiwan Northern, Canada, States Australia, New, Australia, New Zealand, Saharan Africa, Angola, Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon, Congo, Congo Djibouti, Guinea Eritrea Eswatini Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea, Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Sudan Togo Uganda Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe, Aging Asia, Pacific, America, , Hong Kong, Italy, Spain, Spain Taiwan Greece, Singapore Slovenia Thailand Germany, Mainland China Finland Japan Netherlands Canada, Hong Kong South Korea, Singapore Slovenia Japan Thailand Germany, Mainland China Finland Netherlands, U.N, Korea Japan Spain, Korea Japan, France, West, East, Vietnam
Almost a year has passed since the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which estimates gross domestic product, announced that real G.D.P. had declined over the previous two quarters — a phenomenon that is widely, although incorrectly, described as the official definition of a recession. Right-wingers had a field day, crowing about the “Biden recession.” But it wasn’t just a partisan thing. Even forecasters who knew that recessions are defined by multiple indicators, and that America wasn’t in a recession yet, began predicting one in the near future. As Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, one of the few prominent recession skeptics, put it: “Every person on TV says recession.
Persons: Biden, Mark Zandi, I’ve Organizations: Federal Reserve
The U.S.-China Business Council estimated that U.S. exports to China supported nearly 1.1 million jobs in the United States in 2021. Also in the survey, 46 percent of American companies thought that U.S.-China relations would deteriorate in 2023, while only 13 percent thought they would improve. Personal and cultural connectionsThe United States is home to nearly 2.4 million Chinese immigrants, making it the top destination for Chinese immigrants worldwide. China had more than 80,000 movie screens by late 2021, compared with roughly 39,000 in the United States. Air carriers are running only 24 flights a week between the United States and China, compared with about 350 before the pandemic.
Persons: Janet L, Yellen, Germany —, China’s, Long, ByteDance, Maheshwari, Nicole Sperling Organizations: Economic, International Monetary Fund, Initiative, China . Trade, China Business Council, United, Commerce Department, Financial, American Chamber of Commerce, Columbia University Locations: China, United States, Beijing, U.S, Canada, Mexico . U.S, The U.S, Japan, Britain, Germany, China’s, American, Comscore
Why It Matters: Germany has long neglected military spending. Despite intense pressure from the United States, Germany last spent 2 percent of its G.D.P. on defense in 1991, a year after the reunification of the former East and West German nations, according to statistics from the World Bank. The United States is using incentives, including tax breaks, to lure businesses in the green energy and technology sectors. “Germany is increasingly falling behind when it comes to investment and location decisions,” said Tanja Gönner, general director of the German Federation of Industries.
Persons: Marcel Fratzscher, Lindner, , Tanja Gönner Organizations: World Bank, German Institute for Economic Research, German Federation of Industries Locations: Germany, United States, West, Russia, Ukraine
Meta Loses Appeal on How It Harvests Data in Germany
  + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Adam Satariano | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
Although the ruling applies only to Meta services in Germany, it is expected to influence other antitrust authorities in the European Union. antitrust law, called the Digital Markets Act, takes effect in the coming months and gives regulators new powers to encourage competition in the tech sector. The court said regulators investigating antitrust cases can also examine whether a company is breaking the European Union’s data protection law, called the General Data Protection Regulation, or G.D.P.R. After the company appealed the decision, it eventually landed before the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg. He has argued that Facebook uses the data it collects from users to strengthen its position over rivals, harming competition.
Persons: Meta, Andreas Mundt, Mundt, ” Mr, Organizations: European Court, Justice, Facebook, Big Tech, European Union, Markets, Data, Court of Justice, Amazon, Google Locations: Germany, European Union, Luxembourg
Even the cuts in the debt ceiling deal would be a mild retardant for economic growth. in 2021, compared with 115 percent for the United States, and Japan seems to be doing OK. (Those numbers are somewhat exaggerated because they include debt held by other parts of the government, not just debt held by the public.) At that point, an uncomfortably large portion of federal spending has to be devoted to paying interest on the debt. That brings up the second thing that’s wrong with the right wing’s condemnation of the debt ceiling deal. The drama around the debt ceiling deal, which is far from over, is intense because negotiators are trying to achieve something that is impossible.
Ever since World War II ended, Japan has been passing the buck. Sheltered by the postwar U.S. security alliance, Japan provided bases for American forces but kept its own military spending remarkably low for a country of its size and wealth, resisting American urging to share more of the burden. But Japan is the linchpin of today’s paramount geopolitical competition — China’s push for regional dominance of East Asia — and it is America’s most essential ally. for decades), and a Japanese public still traumatized by defeat in World War II. It also reassured Asian nations that Japan would not again embark on overseas aggression.
Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.
Almost a year has passed since the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. economy had contracted for two quarters in a row. Some people believe, wrongly, that two quarters of falling G.D.P. The interesting question now is why, at least according to some surveys, the public remains very negative on the economy — as negative as it has been in the past amid severe economic downturns — even though those recession calls were clearly a false alarm, and the economy is actually looking remarkably strong. Or maybe the question should be why people say that they’re very negative on the economy. And we have some new information on what lies behind these gaps.
But I examined the likely costs, did the same with the likely benefits, and then made a judgment that the latter outweighed the former. Performing that kind of analysis — one that doesn’t shy away from nuance and complexity — is an essential element of sound decision-making. Here, the mistake people too often make is to judge a prior decision solely based on the outcome that occurred. We concluded that intervention was unlikely to work. There is, however, a pressing need for leaders of today and tomorrow to make the best possible decisions in an uncertain world.
Budget Cuts in the G.O.P. If every agency is cut If defense, veterans’ health and border security are spared Defense Defense –18% 0% No change Veterans' medical Veterans' medical –18% 0% No change Health and Human Services Health and Human Services –18% –51% Education Education –18% –51% Housing and Urban Development Housing and Urban Development –18% –51% Homeland Security Homeland Security –18% 0% No change Justice Justice –18% –51% State State –18% –51% Transportation Transportation –18% –51% Agriculture Agriculture –18% –51% International aid International aid –18% –51% NASA NASA –18% –51% Veterans (other) Veterans (other) –18% –51% Energy Energy –18% –51% Interior Interior –18% –51% Treasury Treasury –18% –51% Labor Labor –18% –51% Social Security Administration Social Security Administration –18% –51% Commerce Commerce –18% –51% Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency –18% –51% Corps of Engineers Corps of Engineers –18% –51% Other Other –18% –51% Source: Analysis of Congressional Budget Office data by Bobby Kogan, Center for American Progress Note: Figure shows base discretionary budget authority totals for 2024-2033. The New York TimesThe charts above show how exempting big categories of spending would make the budget caps more draconian. The budget caps aren’t the only changes in the current House bill that would reduce federal spending. tax enforcement Budget cuts would reduce tax collections, reducing the savings in the rest of the bill –$120 billion Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ; Congressional Budget Office Note: TANF refers to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program.
Britain, which has the deepest deficits, used to own a globally dominant currency — but the pound sterling stopped playing any important international role generations ago. The Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar have never been widely used outside their issuing nations. So where does the idea that dollar dominance gives us a special ability to run deficits come from? Why, then, are people making such a big deal over the possible end of dollar dominance? The bottom line in most of this analysis is that the dollar is widely used because it’s widely used — that all of the various roles the dollar plays create a web of self-reinforcement, keeping the dollar pre-eminent.
Some of us would like to slow this down because we are seeing more costs every day, but I don’t think that means that there are no benefits. We may someday have a technology that revolutionizes science and technology, but I don’t think GPT-5 is the ticket for that. Combine that human overattribution with the reality that these systems don’t know what they’re talking about and are error-prone, and you have a problem. I don’t think we should go after an individual who posts a silly story on Facebook that wasn’t true. I don’t think, however, that the technology we have right now is very good for that — systems that can’t even reliably do math problems.
G.D.P. Report: What to Look For
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, probably rose at a rate of about 1.9 percent in the first quarter of the year, according to estimates compiled by FactSet. The Federal Reserve has raised rates by nearly five percentage points since early last year in an effort to tamp down inflation. That has led to a sharp slowdown in home building and business investment. Consumer spending, however, has proved resilient in the face of both rising prices and higher borrowing costs. Consumers have been buoyed by a strong job market and rising wages, which have helped offset high prices.
How Strong Is the Economy?
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
Conservatives sometimes respond to this data by trying to separate the economy from the rest of society. But I think it’s a mistake to imagine that the economy is somehow distinct from living standards. To over-generalize only somewhat, blue America believes in NIMBYism (“not in my backyard”), while red America is more comfortable with YIMBYism. That combination helps explain why our economy looks so good by some measures and so bad by others. Liberals have been hobbling government and the economy, Nicholas Bagley of the University of Michigan explained on Ezra Klein’s podcast.
The Debt Ceiling Debate Is About More Than Debt
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jim Tankersley | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The Republican plan is estimated to reduce that ratio — known as debt-to-G.D.P. — in 2033 by about 9 percentage points if fully enacted. By contrast, Mr. Biden’s latest budget, which raises trillions of dollars in new taxes from corporations and high earners and includes new spending on child care and education, would reduce the ratio by about 6 percentage points. Those reductions are a far cry from Republicans’ promises, after winning control of the House in November, to balance the budget in 10 years. At the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, Mr. McCarthy accused the president and his party of already adding “$6 trillion to our nation’s debt burden,” ignoring the bipartisan support enjoyed by most of the spending Mr. Biden has signed into law.
Opinion | The Power of American Capitalism
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( David Brooks | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
The millennial and Gen Z generations are practically defined by a story of economic hardship. Many people believe that the coming generations will not enjoy the same living standards as their parents. “If anything, the reverse is true.”My point is not that American capitalism is perfect. For reasons deeply rooted in our culture, the American brand of capitalism has always been tilted toward dynamism, with freer markets and smaller welfare states. Between 1990 and 2019, American social spending rose from 14 percent of G.D.P.
Annual population growth 3% Growing population Projected Projected 2% India’s population is projected to grow until the 2060s. 1% 0 Declining population -1% 1960 2000 2040 2080 3% Projected 2% China’s population declined for the first time in 2022. Fertility rate 8 children per woman Projected Projected 6 India 4 India’s fertility rate ensures a roughly stable population. Age 100+ Male Female Male Female 95–99 90–91 85–89 80–81 75–79 70–71 Nearly 80% of India’s population is younger than 50. 20–21 15–19 10–11 5–9 0–4 Age 100+ Male Female 95–99 90–91 85–89 80–81 Nearly 80% of India’s population is younger than 50.
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