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☆ There are 4 big factors to watch that could bring turmoil to financial markets, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks and the economy look strong but there are four factors that could pose a problem, Capital Economics said. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and high interest rates are big risks to markets. A depreciation of the Chinese yuan and soaring US debt are also the two factors investors need to watch. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Thirdly, with the rising value of the Chinese yuan, any depreciation could trigger currency market volatility elsewhere.

Persons: —, Ruben Gargallo Abargues, Jonas Goltermann, Wednesday's, Goltermann, Bill Gross Organizations: Economics, Service, Capital Economics, Brent Locations: Israel, Treasuries

☆ The Fed Just Got the Job Market Cooling It Has Been Waiting For
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are keeping a close eye on the job market as they contemplate when and whether they can cut interest rates this year. That was both cooler than the previous reading and slightly cooler than the 4 percent economists had forecast. The overall picture was one of a labor market that remains solid but is gradually slowing — exactly what officials at the Fed have been looking for. Central bankers generally embrace a strong job market: One of their two mandates from Congress is to foster maximum employment. But when inflation is rapid, as it has been since 2021, officials worry that a hot labor market could help to keep price gains elevated.

Organizations: Federal

☆ Interest rates are staying high—how to make them work in your favor
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Gabriel Cortés | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If you were hoping interest rates might come down this spring, you're likely going to have to wait a little bit longer. After more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, savers are now in an environment where they're being rewarded for keeping deposits in the bank. And with interest rates staying at their decades-long high for longer, savers have an extended window to take advantage of everything banks are offering. "We did a study recently and found that very few people are earning even 4% on their savings," Rossman says. Now is a great time to shop around for the most favorable terms and lock in those interest rates while they're here, Rossman says.

Persons: That's, Ted Rossman, Rossman Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Locations: U.S

☆ Turn to emerging markets for investments that ‘will power the AI revolution,’ portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A lower rate environment this year will boost the thesis for investing in emerging markets, according to Christine Phillpotts, a portfolio manager at Ariel Investments. Phillpotts, who manages Ariel's Emerging Markets Value and Emerging Markets Value ex-China strategies, told CNBC's Mike Santoli at Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting that there are several reasons why emerging markets should outperform in 2024 and beyond. For starters, a lower interest rate environment would mean that investors would increase flows to ex-U.S. regions, including emerging markets. The portfolio manager noted that valuation discounts for emerging market equities are at all-time lows, based on a comparison of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index versus the S & P 500. For investors interested in artificial intelligence beneficiaries, Phillpotts highlighted that key opportunities in emerging markets lay within the picks-and-shovels plays that "will power the AI revolution."

Persons: Christine Phillpotts, CNBC's Mike Santoli, She's, Ariel's, Phillpotts, Warren Buffett's Organizations: Ariel Investments, Federal Reserve, Ariel, China Locations: China, Berkshire, U.S

☆ White House counts jobs report as a win, though inflation path – and interest rate cuts – far from certain ahead of November
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Kayla Tausche | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Within the walls of the White House, it was seen the same way, stoking relief among officials, who said the data hewed near the team’s own targets for ideal job creation. In the wake of the latest jobs report, many market participants are now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, potentially easing a source of consternation for voters. Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s cited frequently by the White House, said certain psychological thresholds will remain important as the election approaches. In the meantime, White House officials continue to watch the data carefully and refrain from declaring victory until it bears out the trajectory the Biden administration wants to see. “The best measure of inflation is inflation,” the official told CNN.

Persons: Joe Biden, Ron Klain, “, Mark Zandi, Moody’s, ” Zandi, Biden “, ” Biden, Mandel Ngan, – Biden, Biden Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, White, Biden, Democratic, Reserve, Wilmington Convention, Getty Locations: Wilmington, Wilmington , North Carolina, AFP

☆ Japan's yen had a rollercoaster week amid suspected intervention. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An undated photographic illustration of Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar bank notes. The yen touched 160.03 against the greenback on Monday, for the first time since 1990, but strengthened to 156 levels later that day amid speculation about an intervention by Japanese authorities. Japanese authorities are yet to issue an official statement confirming their role in propping up the currency. In the last few decades, while other global central banks have tightened their policies, Japan had maintained its ultra-loose policy, leading to concentrated carry trades in the Japanese yen. Market participants believe Japanese authorities will intervene further to prop up the currency.

Persons: Glowimages, they've, Nicholas Smith, Kazuo Ueda, Edward Yardeni Organizations: U.S, Glowimages, CNBC, Bank of America Global Research, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research Locations: propping, Japan, U.S, Bank of Japan

☆ Why Wall Street is so happy to see the job market slowing down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks soared on Friday after a light April jobs report gave investors hope of a rate cut sooner than later. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The market is currently in a situation where negative economic news is positive for risk assets like stocks. Advertisement"The April jobs report was just what the market ordered," Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise, wrote in a client note. Today's jobs report was the "first material 'downside surprise' in over two years," added Key Wealth CIO George Mateyo in comments to Business Insider.

Persons: —, Russell Price, George Mateyo Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Ameriprise, Business

☆ Cramer's week ahead: Earnings from Disney, Uber and Warner Bros. Discovery
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday guided investors through the upcoming earnings-packed schedule on Wall Street, saying to focus on reports from companies such as Uber , Disney and Warner Bros. Since April's labor report was weaker than expected, he said investors can worry less about the Federal Reserve's next move. Monday brings earnings from Simon Property Group and Tyson Foods , the latter of which Cramer said he thinks could be a "bounce-back play." Wynn Resorts and Reddit also release earnings that day, and Cramer said he thinks both could put up solid numbers. Cramer will be paying attention to Uber's report on Wednesday, saying he wonders whether its earnings will be hurt by competition from Lyft .

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Warren, Reddit, Airbnb, Robinhood Organizations: Disney, Warner Bros ., Federal, Berkshire Hathaway, American Express, Apple, Cola, Occidental Petroleum, Simon Property, Tyson Foods, Wynn Resorts, Lyft, Toyota, AMC Entertainment, Warner Bros, Discovery, National Basketball Association, Akamai Technologies, Federal Trade, Capri, Enbridge

☆ Japanese yen: How the currency’s record slump is squeezing the Japanese
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Higher interest rates in the United States and other countries mean investors can make bigger returns on investments there than they can in Japan. This encourages carry trades, in which investors borrow money in yen to invest it in higher-yielding assets priced in other currencies. That weakens the Japanese currency. A Big Mac costs 50% more in the next cheapest G10 currency, the New Zealand dollar, than it does in yen, he added. … and lots of drawbacksBut the falling yen has caused much pain at home and not just for small businesses like Japan Fraise.

Persons: hasn’t, Hiroko Ishikawa, “ It’s, ” Ishikawa, “, we’re, We’re, Himari Semans, That’s, ” Nigel Green, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett, ” Sean Callow, ”, Sato Hitomi, Semans, I’ve, —, Laura He, Chris Lau Organizations: Tokyo CNN, US, Reserve, CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, deVere, greenback, Labor, Societe Generale, New Zealand, Japan’s National Tourism Organization, Tokyo’s Locations: Hong Kong, Tokyo, Japan, United States, Sydney, Hawaii

☆ Immigrant workers are helping boost the U.S. labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The strong jobs market has been bolstered post-pandemic by strength in the immigrant workforce in America. And as Americans age out of the labor force and birth rates remain low, economists and the Federal Reserve are touting the importance of immigrant workers for overall future economic growth. Immigrant workers made up 18.6% of the workforce last year, a new record, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Despite the U.S. adding fewer-than-expected jobs in April, the labor force participation rate for foreign-born workers ticked up slightly, to 66%. "We don't have enough workers participating in the labor force and our birth rate has dropped down 2% last year from 2022 to 2023.

Persons: Jennie Murray, Phillip Swagel, Swagel Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Workers, National Immigration, Congressional Locations: America

☆ Treasury yields inch higher ahead of April jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than one basis point to 4.5814%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last over one basis point higher to 4.8891%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday as investors awaited key labor market data that could provide hints about the state of the economy. Investors looked ahead to the April jobs report, which investors will be scanning for clues about whether the labor market is easing or remaining resilient.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve

☆ A top mind at UBS Global Wealth Management explains why investors' meltdown over elevated interest rates is misguided — and shares a 5-part investing blueprint as stocks continue to rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, —, shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare

☆ Buying a first home is 'prohibitively expensive' and 'almost impossible' for many, says Janet Yellen
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewOwning a home is a key element of the American dream, yet it's become an unattainable fantasy for many people, Janet Yellen said. At the same time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has surged from around 3% at the end of 2021 to around 7%. As a result, Yellen said that buying a first home is "almost prohibitively expensive." Prospective sellers are holding off on listing their properties because they're unwilling to give up the dirt-cheap mortgage rate they secured years ago. AdvertisementBiden has also proposed a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 for middle-class families that sell their starter home to someone who'll live in it.

Persons: —, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Biden Organizations: Service, Treasury, Business, Federal Reserve, White House, Tax, stoke

Just as Wall Street appeared to come to terms with the idea of high interest rates sticking around for longer, a cooler-than-expected jobs report on Friday brought the idea of rate cuts back into the conversation. The Labor Department reported that job and wage growth in April came in lower than economists had expected, a shift after months of piping-hot labor market reports. The findings rekindled hopes that the Federal Reserve — which has been looking for signs that interest rates are slowing the economy — may yet cut rates before the end of the year. “This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent on Friday, its best day in more than two months.

Persons: ”, Seema Shah, Russell Organizations: Labor Department, Federal, Asset Management

☆ Trend on wage data is clearly downward and very encouraging, says Goldman's Hatzius
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrend on wage data is clearly downward and very encouraging, says Goldman's HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the economist's confidence in the trend on wage data, expectations for the Federal Reserve, and more.

Persons: Goldman's Hatzius Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ The specter of stagflation is back in the news. BofA says investors should buy these 2 areas of the market to capitalize.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Headlines talking about "stagflation" have rocketed to the most in two years, Bank of America said. Utilities and energy typically benefit the most in stagflationary conditions, the bank said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHeadline references to "stagflation" catapulted to a two-year high last week, Bank of America reported, which could start weighing on Wall Street sentiment. We think that view is misguided, as it is based on an apples-to-oranges comparison," the bank wrote last week.

Persons: —, it's, stagflationary Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Tech

☆ Oil prices pick up on prospect of U.S. replenishing strategic reserve
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An oil pumpjack is pictured in the Permian basin, Loco Hills regions, New Mexico, U.S., April 6, 2023. Oil prices rose on Thursday on the prospect the U.S. may start buying crude for its petroleum reserve, after prices sank to a seven-week low on hopes for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire, doubts about U.S. interest rate cuts and swelling oil inventories. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June climbed 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.22 a barrel. The U.S. aims to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, after a historic sale from the emergency stockpile in 2022 and wants to buy back oil at $79 a barrel or less. Any delay in rate cuts could slow economic growth and dampen demand for oil.

Persons: WTI, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, Kikukawa, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, NS, Nissan Securities, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Loco Hills, New Mexico, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Israeli, Rafah

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge up after Fed and as trader eye Apple earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose Thursday after the Fed meeting and as investors eyed Apple earnings. Expectations heading into Apple earnings are mixed, with analysts seeing a tough period for the iPhone maker. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Thursday morning following Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and as traders geared up for Apple earnings after the closing bell. Expectations are for the tech firm to report revenue of $90.33 billion and earnings per share $1.50.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Apple, Service, Reserve, Labor Department, Dow, Nasdaq

☆ Tom Lee says the bar is lower for the Fed to cut and so stocks are set to do ‘quite well’
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cracks might finally be forming in the Federal Reserve's firm hawkish stance, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee. As investors expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged after central bank policymakers had their meeting. "That's not really an inflationary signal, so I think the bar is actually being lowered now for the Fed to cut and I think that's something many people picked up." All in all, Lee thinks there's a "good probability" that interest rates are currently at their peak. If inflation does indeed improve in the next few months and interest rates fall, he has optimistic prospects for stocks.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, That's, Jerome Powell, We're, Powell, there's Organizations: Fundstrat Global, Starbucks, Fed, Investors

☆ We're buying 2 unfairly punished stocks and 1 on an analyst call
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. "That's a win for stocks," Jim Cramer said Thursday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, should've, Jim, — Stanley Black, Decker, Linde, TJX, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Fed, Coterra Energy, Apple, UBS, TJX Companies, LIN Locations: China, TJX, HomeGoods

☆ Stock futures rise after Apple reports, traders look to April payrolls data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 212 points, or 0.55%. S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced about 0.5%. In extended trading, Apple advanced more than 6% after it announced a $110 billion share repurchase and a top -and bottom-line beat. The S&P 500 popped 0.91%, while the Dow gained 0.85%. The S&P 500 is off by 0.7% week to date, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.6%.

Persons: Cloudflare, Dow, Jerome Powell, Sonu Varghese, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Biotech Amgen, Dow, Carson Group Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Gold prices flutter higher as Fed holds rates steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected. Its latest policy statement kept key elements of its economic assessment and policy guidance intact, framing its discussion of interest rates around the conditions under which borrowing costs can be lowered. Traders were relieved that Powell slammed the door shut for further hikes, helping gold prices climb back above $2,300, City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Traders, City Index, U.S, Palladium, MKS PAMP

☆ The Fed likely won't cut rates until after a recession strikes, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed likely won't cut interest rates until after a recession arrives, according to GlobalData TS Lombard. The research firm said Fed Chair Powell is likely to fall into the trap of being reactionary when it comes to rate decisions. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is making a big mistake by not cutting interest rates right now, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief US economist Steven Blitz. And if inflation sees a sharp rebound to 5%, "they obviously hike" interest rates, Blitz said. AdvertisementAll-in, according to Blitz, it means that interest rates could stay at current levels for longer-than-expected, especially since it appears there will be no recession this year.

Persons: Powell, Steven Blitz, Jerome Powell, Blitz, Jeremy Siegel Organizations: Fed, GlobalData, Lombard, Federal Reserve

☆ Global Growth Forecast Is Lifted but Risks Loom, O.E.C.D. Says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Liz Alderman | More About Liz Alderman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the United States, the Federal Reserve left interest rates steady on Wednesday, citing wariness about how stubborn inflation was proving. Even so, the United States is expected to remain an engine of global growth this year, expanding at a 2.6 percent pace, the O.E.C.D. Both the euro currency bloc and Britain ended 2023 in recession, deepened by record high interest rates deployed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to help fight inflation. The outlook should improve next year, as high interest rates come down, unleashing more spending by businesses and households. forecast the eurozone economy to expand at 1.5 percent in 2025, more than double the expected growth rate this year.

Persons: “ We’ve, Clare Lombardelli, Lombardelli Organizations: Federal Reserve, Britain, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: United States, Europe, Germany, Greece, Spain

☆ JPMorgan is cautious on crypto as retail investors dump following ETF hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Retail dollars flowed out of bitcoin ETFs in April, and investors should adopt a cautious stance on the cryptocurrency for now, according to JPMorgan. "The past two weeks saw significant selling/profit taking with perhaps retail investors playing a bigger role than institutional investors," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Thursday. "Indeed, not only have spot bitcoin ETFs seen outflows in April but our proxies of the retail impulse into equities have also downshifted over the past month." Panigirtzoglou noted that in addition to crypto, retail investors also sold equities in April and that the impulse into stocks has also shifted down. "This is shown by … the net flow into equity funds including ETFs and mutual funds, typically used by retail investors … [which] turned negative in April after strong buying in February and March," he said.

Persons: JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou, cryptocurrencies Organizations: JPMorgan, Metrics, Investors, Federal

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