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Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

But tempting as it is to buy into that - leading indicators have been flashing red for months, as yet to no avail - we are probably not at that stage just yet. "Most analysts have no choice but to have their initial bias gravitate to the mean or median range of these leading indicators," he said. Reuters ImageReuters ImageLONG AND VARIABLE LAGSOne of the most reliable recession indicators is the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAgain, if the economy isn't in recession by the end of the year, this time it really is different. The signals sent by leading indicators recently have been pretty clear - it just remains to be seen whether they will be accurate.

Persons: Jerome Powell, LEI, Eric Basmajian, Milton Friedman's, payrolls, Jamie McGeever, Jan Harvey Organizations: Federal, Reuters, EPB Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Ukraine

☆ The Supreme Court's rejection of Biden's student-loan-forgiveness plan will make a looming economic slowdown even worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The repayment poses risks to the economy, with consumer spending likely to be reduced. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that Biden's plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt will be struck down. But they're a weight, it's about 20 million student-loan borrowers that haven't been paying, they'll have to begin paying more or less in September," Zandi said. White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton was asked this week about how the student-loan payment resumption could impact consumer spending. And his concerns are broader than just a contraction in consumer spending.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Mark Zandi, haven't, Zandi, that's, Ethan Harris, Morgan Stanley, Olivia Dalton, Dalton, Marshall Steinbaum Organizations: Education Department, Service, Moody's, CNBC, Bank, Bank of, UBS, White, Politico, Family Institute, University of Utah Locations: Wall

☆ The housing market has about 40% fewer homes for sale than before the pandemic, and listings keep falling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The current housing market offers 39% fewer homes for sale than pre-pandemic, Redfind said. Homeowners are unwilling to part ways with low mortgage rates secured before borrowing costs went up. Mortgage rates are now hovering close to 7%, nearly double where they were at in 2021, when ultra-low rates fueled a home-buying boom. "People who are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to decline, should know that's unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. Edward Seiler, the associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Insider earlier that the housing market has never been this unaffordable for new buyers.

Persons: Redfind, —, Chen Zhao, Redfin, Edward Seiler, Seiler Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: homebuilding

☆ Opinion | Dads Still Get Extra Leisure Time. Moms Are Still Subsidizing It.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Jessica Grose | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The only marriage type where husbands devote more time to caregiving than their wives is one in which the wife is the sole breadwinner. In those marriages, wives and husbands spend roughly the same amount of time per week on household chores. (A subsequent reform in 2002 that allowed an additional nontransferable month was not found to lead to more separations.) The cultural hurdles women face at home overlap with hurdles women face in the workplace. First, she told me that she’s done the math based on time-use data and found that women are, in effect, doing about an extra month of unpaid labor a year, while men get an extra month of leisure.

☆ Who is Nouriel Roubini, Wall Street's 'Dr. Doom' economist who has warned of catastrophe for 2 decades?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as "Dr. Doom", has been warning of disaster for two decades. He rose to prominence after being among the commentators to call the 2008 financial crisis. When he spoke of an impending housing crash at the International Monetary Fund that year, the audience chuckled, the New York Times reported. Nouriel Roubini economics professor at New York University attends 48th edition of Economic Forum of Cernobbio on September 02, 2022 in Cernobbio, Italy. "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day," Anirvan Banerji, a critic of Roubini's told the New York Times in 2008.

☆ Looking to buy a house? Follow these 7 tips to ensure you get the best deal, according to economists at Redfin
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Some tips include asking for concessions, buying new, waiting, and buying in cash. In a recent post, Redfin economists shared their top tips for homebuyers right now. 7 tips for homebuyersThe first tip from Chen Zhao, Redfin's economics research team lead, is to wait if you can. Considering how high mortgage rates are, a rate buydown is a concession that could help shoppers buy themselves some time for rates to fall. One counterpoint to this is that home values just about everywhere have also climbed since the start of the pandemic.

☆ Luxury home sales plunge 45%, with Miami and the Hamptons hit hardest
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. housing market is taking a hard hit from higher mortgage rates, and luxury home sales are seeing the worst of it. Sales of luxury homes dropped 45% during the three months ended Jan. 31 compared with the same period the year before, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. Redfin defines luxury homes as those estimated to be in the top 5% based on the estimated market value. Miami, which had seen a massive influx of wealthy buyers migrating from the Northeast in the earlier days of the Covid pandemic, saw sales drop nearly 69%. While not all luxury buyers use mortgages, they are affected by the broader economy, and more specifically the stock market.

☆ A housing downturn is causing a reckoning in the once-hot cluster of proptech startups that let homebuyers pay all cash and win bidding wars
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In that market, all-cash offers were king to sellers because they ensured quicker, stress-free closings. According to Redfin, all-cash offers quadrupled the chances that a homebuyer would win a bidding war. Ribbon has since paused its all-cash offering, but some of the other firms that Insider featured last year are still making all-cash offers. FlyhomesFlyhomes is a real-estate brokerage that featured all-cash-offer services for years and distinguished itself in December 2021 with a free all-cash-offer product. "The value to the buyer is different than in a seller's market," Garg said in the email.

☆ In economics, women's voices still struggle to be heard
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Maria Martinez | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

There seems to be a lot to celebrate on International Women's Day in the field of economics. Women head the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the U.S. Treasury and the European Central Bank. "The pervasive underrepresentation of women in economics is systemic and structural," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the first woman to head the World Trade Organization, told Reuters. "There are no women in the textbooks and most big names in economics are men," said Sandra Kretschmer, economics researcher and member of the Women in Economics Initiative. Women and men tend to have different research interests, said Alisa Weinberger, economics researcher at Goethe.

☆ The US housing market has lost $2.3 trillion in value from its peak as home prices tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US homes lost 4.9% of their value from a 2022 peak, equating to $2.3 trillion, according to a report from Redfin. The overall value of homes stood at the $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022. "The housing market has shed some of its value, but most homeowners will still reap big rewards from the pandemic housing boom," Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao said in a statement. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors said the US housing market could be close to bottoming out, as existing home sales hit the lowest level since 2010. Meanwhile, other market commentators have warned the US housing market is on the verge of a crash akin 2008.

☆ An economics researcher is warning that the next few decades could bring a massive stock market collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US stock market could face collapse by 2050, according to new research by a Finnish economist. Grosby's paper re-examined past studies of stock market crashes to determine if another cataclysm was headed for the US market. Using a model that detects faster-than-exponential growth to identify stock market bubbles, the researchers concluded that the US equity market was headed for a collapse in 2052. He also re-calibrated the model, as other analyses show it could be overestimating the time it takes for a stock market crash to occur. His findings echo warnings from prominent Wall Street commentators, who say disaster looms over the stock market.

☆ Homebuyers, rejoice! You can afford to bid on a more expensive home now that mortgage rates have fallen below 6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Robert Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US housing market is warming back up because of declining mortgage rates. The average for 30-year mortgage rates have just dipped below 6% for the first time in months. Mortgage rates dipped below 6% on February 2, according to Mortgage Daily News, marking their lowest reading since September 2022. The declining mortgage rates have helped to bring buyers back to the market and bolster purchasing power. "We went from sellers controlling everything, to now being more of a neutral, and even almost a buyer's market."

☆ Inflation has peaked in the euro zone, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has peaked in the euro zone, Barclays saysSilvia Ardagna, head of European economics research at Barclays, discusses her predictions for the outcome of the ECB meeting and subsequent interest rate decisions over the next 12 months.

That has given some consumers an opening to spend liberally this holiday shopping season. "Despite the pandemic, holiday sales have grown at a historic pace for the 2020 and 2021 holiday seasons," the economists wrote. "This year, with pandemic fears now largely in the rearview mirror, consumers are looking forward to a more typical holiday shopping season." But simple math dictates that consumers are eventually going to run out of ways to spend, they write. Holiday plansBut consumers should hold up well this holiday season, experts say.

☆ The US economy came back to life this summer, but things are still likely to suck next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Mike Schenk, chief economist of Credit Union National Association, said in a statement that the "healthy economic growth will not last." CEOs are pessimistic about the future and the hot labor market is coolingCEOs, for one, aren't feeling too good about the economy. "The labor market continues to be hot, even if it's cooled a little bit since the beginning of this year," Bunker told Insider. "Where we're seeing it does signal that it is sectors normalizing, rather than dramatically pulling back postings because they are concerned about short term economic growth." He noted that excess labor demand "gives you a lot of running room here before the labor market actually gets soft."

☆ If you're considering buying or selling a home, you might want to wait until next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The fight against inflation has led to a surge in mortgage rates. An increase in interest rates led to a run up in mortgage rates, which has slowed home sales and therefore price growth. It all comes down to the fact that the higher mortgage rates rise, the less affordable homeownership is for borrowers. Indeed, homebuying activity is slowing the higher that mortgage rates rise. According to the organization's researchers, if a recession were to materialize "mortgage rates would fall around 30 basis points from the baseline forecast level of 5.2%."

Oct 13 (Reuters) - Late-stage U.S. startups are scooping up talent unlocked by layoffs and hiring freezes at Big Tech, adding experienced engineers and project managers to their roster despite signs of an economic slowdown. A survey of 581 executives, almost entirely from U.S. tech startups, showed that more than 40% of them boosted their hiring plans in the first half of 2022, according to hiring firm A.Team and startup consultant MassChallenge. Companies are also shortening hiring times and offering higher pay packages to lock in candidates as they compete for talent in a tight labor market, recruiters said. Still, some analysts warn there is only so long until startups can continue the hiring pace amid a weak economic backdrop. "If the economy does indeed go into recession, it will only add to the pressure faced by tech firms as demand dries up," says Dante DeAntonio, director of economics research at Moody's Analytics.

The OPEC+ alliance announced Wednesday that it will cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day, a move that's likely to send gas prices higher again after a year of tumult at the pump. Prices trended downward from July to mid-September, as President Joe Biden sought to reduce gas prices, and stress on Americans’ wallets, ahead of the midterm elections. Capital Economics research group now expects global oil prices to rise from about $93 to $100 per barrel, with U.S. benchmark prices rising from $88 to $92. At the outset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, global oil prices had climbed to as much as $128. Political analysts have observed a strong correlation between gas prices and Biden's approval rating, as voters home in on gas prices as a proxy for inflation and thus the state of the economy.

The British pound plunged to a record low against the U.S. dollar Monday. The pound, historically one of the strongest currencies in the world, fell to as low as $1.04 before bouncing back to approximately $1.07. For most of the past few decades, the pound averaged a price of about $1.50 against the dollar. The decline in the British pound in itself won't have a direct impact on the U.S. economy, experts say. But as the value of the pound has dropped, the value of the U.S. dollar has reached all-time highs.

☆ Mortgage rates just hit a high not seen since the 2008 housing crash
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-11 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

More interest rate hikes are on the horizon and that means mortgage rates could climb further. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, says the uptick is attributed to economic volatility that is seeping into the US real estate market. "The combination of higher mortgage rates and the slowdown in economic growth is weighing on the housing market," Khater told Insider. Numerous interest rate hikes have lifted mortgage rates at the fastest pace in decades. The move has effectively put an end to the home buying frenzy that rocked the US real estate market.

☆ It's a terrible time to both buy and sell real estate
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-08 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Americans are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the US real estate market. Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyThe real estate market is in limbo. It's created greater dysfunction in the real estate market. Indeed, activity in the real estate market is cooling. As rising mortgage rates burden consumers, it's given rise to the largest decline in home listings in more than two years.

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