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☆ Goldman Sachs and UBS warn that lower inflation won't be enough to make stocks rally — but these 7 investments can help investors earn a profit anyway
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Investors have mostly yawned at lower inflation data this week, keeping stocks range-bound. Strategists at the asset management arms of Goldman Sachs and UBS are signaling caution. The message from markets is clear: lower inflation isn't necessarily a green light for stocks. Strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM) and Goldman Sachs Asset Management issued even sterner warnings, with neither seeing much upside for stocks in the foreseeable future. Goldman Sachs Asset Management is also bullish on long-duration assets while the economy weakens, especially compared to riskier high-yield bonds.

☆ Analysis: Investors brace for hard landing as banking woes stoke recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The Charging Bull, or Wall Street Bull, is pictured in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 16, 2019. “The no landing scenario has quickly evaporated,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Asset Management. A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing driven by tighter credit conditions,” he wrote in a Wednesday note. Some investors believe regulators' quick backstop of Silicon Valley Bank, which included guaranteeing the funds of depositors, will prevent a crisis and allow for a soft landing. “The odds of a soft landing have gone down and the likelihood of a hard landing has gone up,” he said.

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - For all intents and purposes, financial markets think the brutal central bank tightening cycle is done. That may seem like a leap of faith after 36 hours in which three major central banks lifted their main policy interest rates yet again - and warned of more to come. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada already signalled last month that it's pausing its rate rises. Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, reckons "there's little investment value in over-analyzing a central banker's mindset." And if the central banks themselves seemed inclined to allow markets to do their own thing this time around, then it was left to the IMF to act as head teacher.

☆ Inflation has cooled, but investors risk being caught off guard by a 'head fake' that could kill the latest stock-market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are off to a strong start in 2023 after last year's selloff, with cooling inflation a pillar of support. But there's stickiness in services inflation, and that poses downside risks for equities, analysts said. Wage growth has eased but an even slower pace would suit the Fed's inflation-fighting goal. The Fed has been zeroing in on wage growth, Draho said. Annual average hourly wage growth was 4.6% in December.

☆ Heavy stock-market volatility should run into 2023 as investors gauge whether the economy will have a soft or hard landing, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors should expect further volatility in the S&P 500 in 2023 as investors update their economic outcome probabilities, UBS Global Wealth Management said Tuesday. "Fatter" tail risks for the market would stem from divergences in activity between the goods and services sectors of the economy and the Federal Reserve's path of rate hikes. "A soft landing that could materialize in the absence of too much tightening becomes slightly more plausible," Draho said. Meanwhile, the divergence in activity between the goods and services sectors in the slowing US economy adds to the risk of tail outcomes, UBS said. "Investors shouldn't position their portfolios for either of these tail scenarios, but higher probabilities for both do have market implications," said Draho.

☆ Analysis: With Fed in view, dollar rally dented but not quite done, investors say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A less hawkish-than-expected message from the Fed at Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting, however, could exacerbate the currency's recent decline. That has made investors like Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US, wary of calling an end to the dollar rally. Some central banks have already delivered smaller than expected rate increases in recent weeks, including the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia. "If the Fed pulls back that will allow (other central banks) to pull back as well," said UBS's Draho, who expects more dollar strength in coming months. Still, with the dollar near a 20-year high, further dollar gains are likely to be accompanied by increased volatility, analysts said.

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