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☆ Bargain hunters dig in to 'cheap' European banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Just before earnings season kicks off, European bank shares are sporting a dividend yield of almost 8%, making them cheaper on this basis than during the 2008 global financial crisis. European banks, which struggled during 2014 to 2022 as the ECB kept rates below zero, have had a major boost from hiking their loan costs in line with central bank rates. Analyst forecasts collated by European asset manager Amundi show European banks are expected to grow adjusted earnings per share by 25% this year, followed by a 6% gain in 2024. Generali's Morganti said he has moved his position on European banks from negative to neutral and was likely to add more. He did not forecast quick gains for European banks ahead, however.

Persons: Guy de Blonay, Sebastiano Pirro, Roger Lee, Amundi, LSEG, Michele Morganti, Italy's Unicredit, Banks, Pirro, Generali's Morganti, Naomi Rovnick, Joice Alves, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Reuters Graphics Banks, Jupiter Asset Management, Algebris Investments, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Bank, Generali Investments, Monetary Fund, Thomson

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

☆ Global markets brace for fallout as Middle East tensions rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices leapt nearly 6% on Friday, as investors priced in the possibility of a wider Middle East conflict. The first indicator of reaction to weekend developments will likely come when oil starts trading in Asia later on Sunday. Reuters Graphics"I have no clue whether markets will remain relatively well behaved," said Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit. The war between the Islamist group Hamas and Israel poses one of the most significant geopolitical risks to oil markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year. Rising oil prices are unlikely to have a significant impact on U.S. gas prices or consumer spending, analysts noted.

Persons: Violeta Santos Moura, Ben Cahill, Erik Nielsen, Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, it's, Nomura, George Moran, Matt Tracy, Dhara, Megan Davies, Muralikumar, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Hamas, Energy Security, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Reuters, U.S, Economic Outlook Group, European Central Bank, Chevron, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Kibbutz Beeri, Israel, Palestinian, Asia, UniCredit, Princeton , New Jersey, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Egypt, Washington, London

☆ Morning Bid: A spooky Friday 13 for bonds?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe. Investors in U.S. Treasuries have good reason to feel on edge on a day (Friday 13) many consider unlucky, according to Western superstition. For the rest of the day, it's earnings - bank earnings to be specific - that move into the market spotlight. Judging by trade in the options markets, traders are positioning for larger-than-usual share swings after the earnings, especially in Wells Fargo.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dhara Ranasinghe, Biden, Patrick Harker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dhara, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, U.S, University of Michigan, Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, JPMorgan, Wells, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, West, China, Wells Fargo

☆ Hedge funds expected to ramp up returns on higher rates - BNP survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Investors expect hedge funds to produce higher returns with the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, a BNP Paribas [RIC:RIC:BNPPL.UL] investor survey showed on Wednesday. Investors now expect hedge funds to return an average of 9.75% annually within an average of 19 months, up from 6.85%, according to the survey. However, hedge funds themselves think this will take longer, up to 29 months, the survey showed. BNP Paribas said historical evidence shows hedge funds tend to perform well in higher and stable interest rate environments and less so when rates are lower. BNP Capital Introduction Group surveyed 82 hedge fund managers in what it called the "summer" of 2023.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Michael Oliver Weinberg, “, ”, Weinberg, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, BNP, RIC, Investors, Group, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

☆ Take Five: Volatile start to busy week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - Financial markets have got off to a volatile start to the week, after Hamas militants launched an assault on Israel at the weekend, triggering violent conflict that left hundreds dead. A bond market rout last week and currency gyrations already had financial markets on edge ahead of U.S. inflation numbers and the start of earnings season. Here's your week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rachel Savage in Johannesburg, and Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe in London. Amid these tensions, the IMF and World Bank are trying to boost their lending.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, gyrations, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rachel Savage, Naomi Rovnick, Wells, LSEG IBES, Rishi Sunak's, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Vineet, Karin Strohecker, Kim Coghill Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Financial, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Labour, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, UnitedHealth, Reuters, LABOUR, Conservative, Labour Party, MOROCCO Finance, Monetary Fund, U.S, Bretton Woods, IMF, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Tokyo, New York, Johannesburg, London, Central, Morrocan, Marrakech, China

☆ Analysis: Trend hedge funds come out winners in bond market rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet in one corner of the hedge fund world, there's a sigh of relief. So-called trend following and systematic hedge funds have long positioned for a fall in government bond prices given higher-for-longer inflation. AlphaSimplex is a $7.9 billion trend following hedge fund. While many trend funds, also known as "managed futures" funds, use price data, their trading models might also interpret macro economic factors playing out in markets. Some trend funds shrank their fixed income holdings in response to the March turmoil.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Kathryn Kaminski, Morningstar, Razvan Remsing, Yao Hua Ooi, Laurent Le Saint, Metori, Aspect's, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Generale, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury, Virtus, AQR Capital Management, Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, United States, Germany, Boston, Silicon, Europe, China, Paris, EU, Japan

☆ Aviva shares jump 8% as Times cites takeover talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Aviva logo on a window at the company's head office in the City of London, Britain, March 7, 2019. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Shares in Aviva (AV.L) shot up almost 9% on Friday, after Britain's Times newspaper cited talk of a possible takeover of one of the UK's largest insurers by a foreign buyer. ($13.41 billion)The Times cited "chatter that refused to die down". Last month, Aviva said it had agreed to buy UK life insurance business of AIG (AIG.N) for 460 million pounds($563 million), in the largest acquisition to date by its CEO, Amanda Blanc. ($1 = 0.8201 pounds)Reporting by Joice Alves and Carolyn Cohn; Writing by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Amanda Blanc, Joice Alves, Carolyn Cohn, Amanda Cooper, Dhara Organizations: Aviva, City of, REUTERS, Britain's Times, Reuters, AIG, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain

A calmer tone set in later on Wednesday, with bond yields retreating. In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped as much as 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and many asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . , ,World stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their lowest since April on Wednesday, and the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of European corporate junk bonds hit a five-month high, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Persons: Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Kevin McCarthy, Jason Lee, Michael Metcalfe, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Marc Jones, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: bund, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, ADP, U.S . House, Congress, Hong, REUTERS, Street Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, British, U.S, Hong Kong, London

In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . In a further sign of investor nervousness, the closely-watched MOVE bond volatility index is at a four-month high. (.MOVE)Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levels Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levelsRIPPLESGovernment borrowing costs influence everything from mortgage rates for homeowners to loan rates for companies.

Persons: Jason Lee, Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli Chiara Elisei, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Treasuries, British

Yet increasingly, euro area specific factors, particularly exposure to higher oil prices, risk further weakness in an already stagnating economy, and the single currency. The euro is especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, with net imports accounting for over 90% of oil products available in the European Union. "High oil prices are weighing on the euro area's terms of trade, and if oil prices move above $100 per barrel to $110 per barrel we think it will be difficult for the euro to avoid parity," said Nomura's G10 FX strategist Jordan Rochester. But it also lifts price pressures through higher import costs, compounding the impact from higher oil prices. "Definitely the euro zone is not in a good place right now," said Moec, adding that he did not rule out a euro move to parity.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jordan, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, Francesco Pesole, Athanasios, Gilles Moec, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, Yoruk, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, European Union, OPEC, Barclays, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Germany, Bank of America, AXA Investment, Thomson Locations: Jordan Rochester, United States, ITALY, Italy, U.S, London, Amsterdam

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Traders have been on watch for weeks for a possible intervention by Japanese officials to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen. "It could just be people expecting intervention and then reacting to what they believed to be intervention," said Asher. To support the Japanese currency, authorities need to tap Japan's foreign reserves of dollars to sell for yen. A senior Japanese ministry of finance official declined to comment on whether Japan had intervened in foreign exchange markets.

Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Brown, Colin Asher, Asher, Niels Christensen, Jeremy Stretch, Edward Moya, Stretch, Tuesday's, Chuck Mikolajczak, Samuel Indyk, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Dhara Ranasinghe, Lucy Raitano, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Jonathan Oatis, Andrea Ricci, Hugh Lawson, Gareth Jones Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Trader, Mizuho, Nordea, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Ministry, Finance, Seven, Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, London, Copenhagen, Japan, U.S, Tokyo, Asia, New York, United States

Why are global bond yields rising? With inflation excluding food and energy prices elevated and the U.S. economy resilient, central banks are pushing back against rate cut bets. Many investors were also betting bond yields would drop, so are extra sensitive to moves in the opposite direction, analysts say. That is no surprise, and analysts do not rule out a rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 5%, from 4.7% now . Bond yields determine governments' funding costs, so the longer they stay high, the more they feed into the interest costs countries pay.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, August's, Goldman Sachs, Mahmood Pradhan, Treasuries, Andrea Kiguel, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, August's Fitch, Reuters, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Amundi Investment, U.S, JPMorgan, Barclays, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Germany, Japan, Italy, Europe, Americas, Amsterdam, London

The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA

☆ Hedge funds using computers to sell up to $30 billion of stocks soon - UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 29, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS (UBSG.S) note seen by Reuters shows. Hedge funds using algorithms to follow market trends have turned neutral from bullish on stocks, the UBS note said. This will be the first time these hedge funds will be net short equity markets since November 2022, the bank said. The size of the U.S. stock market is estimated to be $46.2 trillion, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, CTAs, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: Swiss, UBS, REUTERS, Reuters, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, Currency, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, U.S

☆ Global stock index gains while Treasury yields, dollar dip after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. "The big fear has been that we may not be at peak interest rates and that we may still be grappling with inflation. "The result is that interest rates are down across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. U.S. Treasury yields slid after the inflation reading with benchmark 10-year notes down 7.1 basis points to 4.526%, from 4.597% late on Thursday. Earlier it had ticked higher with help from the retreating dollar and Treasury yields after the inflation data, but bullion was still on track for monthly and quarterly declines on prospects of higher U.S. interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Brian Levitt, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Naomi Rovnick, Ankur Banerjee, Alexander Smith, Anil D'Silva, Barbara Lewis, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, U.S, Traders, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, United, China, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Take Five: Roll on Q4!
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A possible shutdown would be further evidence of how political polarization in Washington is weakening fiscal policymaking, Moody's says. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy created 150,000 jobs in September versus 187,000 in August. 2/ NEW CHIEF IN TOWNThe Reserve Bank of Australia's new governor Michele Bullock, the first woman to head the bank, chairs her first meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, New Zealand's Reserve Bank meets on Wednesday. With the cost of living a key election battleground, the drastic cut brings relief to those struggling with mortgage repayments.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Harry Robertson, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Joe Biden, Moody's, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Adam Glapinski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, ., China, Democratic, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, New, Reserve Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Equity, Treasury, Reserve, ING reckons, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, there's, Australia, Poland, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington, China, Beijing, Poland's

Benefiting from the highest interest rates since 2008, pension funds are better funded to meet future payouts than they have been in years. Because insurers hold a lot less government debt than pension funds, favouring higher-return assets such as corporate debt, they are expected to sell some of the gilts they receive. It is selling 240 billion pounds of debt this year, a record, save for 2020-21. Helped by the pension fund demand of past years, Britain's average debt life is around 15 years, more than double the U.S. and Germany's. Britain has already started skewing its funding towards shorter debt this year, citing high borrowing needs, a move investors reckon also reflects declining pension fund appetite.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, gilts, Chris Jeffery, Lane Clark, Peacock, Barry Kenneth, Van Lanschot, Arif Saad, Craig, Owen Davies, LGIM's Jeffery, Yoruk, Carolyn Cohn, Dhara Ranasinghe, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Legal, General Investment Management, Fund, Investment, Royal London Asset Management, Investors, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: gilts, Germany's, Britain, Amsterdam, London

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

☆ Reactions: Bank of England bashes pound after halting rate rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Investors had already rushed on Wednesday to reel in their bets on further UK rate rises after data showed UK inflation cooled surprisingly quickly in August. Against the euro , the pound was down 0.5% at 86.74 pence, having traded around 86.70 pence before the decision. "The MPC still refers to its flexibility to react should things change, but the chances are this could be the peak in this UK interest rate cycle." "However, there is a risk that the ‘lag effect’ on interest rate hikes means that today’s decision may not be felt for another 9 to 12 months."

Persons: Hollie Adams, Sterling, THOMAS, Huw Pill's, HUGH GIMBER, PHILIP SHAW, DOUGLAS GRANT, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, FRANCES HAQUE, JOE TUCKEY, RICHARD GARLAND, GILES COGHLAN, BoE, stagflation, Amanda Cooper, Dhara Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, London, Investors, Bank of, Bank, MPC, SANTANDER, LONDON, Core CPI, PMI, CPI, EMEA, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, London, MANX, EUROPEAN, FRANCE, GROUP, OXFORDSHIRE

☆ Stocks waver, short-end U.S. yields rise after hawkish Fed statement
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"They're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.25% as stocks on Wall Street mostly slid. "Right now the message is we're going to leave rates higher for longer to make sure we slay the inflation dragon. Sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. The dollar index rose 0.076%, with the euro down 0.02% to $1.0675.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gennadiy Goldberg, it's, Anthony Saglimbene, Sterling, Brent, Herbert Lash, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Nomiyama, Sharon Singleton, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of England, Bank of, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, MSCI's U.S, Troy , Michigan, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, London, Singapore

Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.

Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Lee Hardman, Sterling underperformed, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Stehn, Masato Kanda, Eugene Low, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Brent, Federal, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, MPC, Monetary, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Singapore

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