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☆ Strongmen are riskier the more they stay in power
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The longer authoritarian leaders stay in power, the greater the risk they will make decisions that damage their economies. For example, the Turkish stock market rose nine-fold in dollar terms during Erdogan’s first decade in charge. Similarly, the Russian stock market rose five-fold in dollar terms during Putin's first 14 years in the Kremlin. Xi’s zero-Covid policy meant the Chinese economy had a bad year in 2022 when the rest of the world was rebounding. In the last nine years, the stock market has lost nearly 20% of its value in dollar terms.

☆ Analysis: China's Xi takes 'diplomatic dance' to Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( John Geddie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"There's been kind of an increasingly pronounced diplomatic dance on China's part as the war has played out," said Andrew Small, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. The U.S. and European leaders have said intelligence showed China was considering sending arms to Russia, which Beijing has denied. Xi called Putin his "best friend" during a 2019 visit where they admired pandas in a Moscow zoo. It is not clear if there will be any such photo ops this time amid more serious business and the bloody Ukraine war. "Whatever support Xi gives to Russia will be on China’s terms," another European diplomat said.

☆ Analysis: China's Xi takes 'diplomatic dance' to isolated Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( John Geddie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Xi Jinping Brings China’s Reform Era to an End
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Lingling Wei | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A decade into Xi Jinping ’s rule, the puzzle pieces of his designs for China are in place, marking a definitive end to Deng Xiaoping’s reform-and-opening era. Four decades ago, Deng, a short, stocky survivor of the Cultural Revolution, kicked off an effort to unshackle China from the ideological turmoil of Mao Zedong ’s rule, embrace capitalist forces and open China to the West.

☆ Mark Mobius: Investor says he cannot get his money out of China
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Mark Mobius has said he cannot take his money out of China due to the country’s capital controls, cautioning investors to be “very, very careful” about investing in an economy under a tight government grip. The government is restricting flow of money out of the country,” Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, told FOX Business in an interview published on March 2. They don’t say: No, you can’t get your money out. Mobius led emerging market investment at Franklin Templeton Investments for three decades and is known for his bullish view on China. Mobius and HSBC could not be reached at the weekend.

☆ Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says he cannot take money out of China -FOX Business
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Mark Mobius told FOX Business he cannot take his money out of China due to the country's capital controls, cautioning investors to be "very, very careful" about investing in an economy under a tight government grip. I can't take my money out. The government is restricting flow of money out of the country," Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, told FOX Business in an interview published on March 2. Mobius led emerging market investment at Franklin Templeton Investments for three decades and is known for his bullish view on China. Mobius, who calls himself "the Indiana Jones of Emerging Market investing", told FOX Business he's increasing exposure to alternative markets such as India and Brazil.

☆ 'I can't get my money out': Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says China is restricting flows of capital out of the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Emerging markets investing veteran Mark Mobius says China is restricting capital outflows. Mobius said he's been unable to get an explanation about the "crazy" restriction. The government is restricting the flow of money out of the country," Mobius said on Thursday on the Fox Business show "Mornings with Maria". "So I would be very, very careful investing in China," the founder of Mobius Capital Partners said. The previous executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group said he's been able to get his money "in and out" of the financial center.

When I first started investigating China’s top spy agency in 2020 for my book, “Spies and Lies: How China’s Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World,” I thought espionage was its main game. In October, the Justice Department charged 13 people with plotting to covertly advance China’s interests in the United States. Several of those charged are allegedly officers of China’s Ministry of State Security. I soon realized that the Ministry of State Security’s covert influence operations have been at the forefront of its work to shape the world. Many countries, including the United States, are working to combat espionage but lack laws suited to tackling covert influence operations.

☆ Obituary: China's Jiang Zemin confounded doubters, mended U.S. ties
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

[1/5] A security guard stands next to a portrait of China's former President Jiang Zemin at an exhibition to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in Beijing, China, July 7, 2011. Under Jiang, China weathered the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001 and won the bid to host the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. "Jiang Zemin was more ready to be natural, even though sometimes it could be perceived as vulgar, not very sophisticated." At celebrations for the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic in 1999, floats carried giant portraits of Mao, Deng and Jiang past Tiananmen Square. Jiang, like Mao, wore his trousers well above his waist and brushed his hair straight back.

☆ Biden’s not the first US President to face a tug of war over China protests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Going further could imperil US President Joe Biden’s effort to improve relations between the two countries, after he met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Bali. It’s a strategically defensible position, given the need to avoid a clash with China that could spiral into a superpower clash in Asia. In the run-up to Beijing’s suppression of pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, then-President George H.W. China is unrecognizable since 1989, and recent protests – this time arising out of frustration with Covid-19 lockdowns but expressing some dissent towards Xi – are not fully analogous. Biden would be likely to show far less deference to Beijing given today’s broad, bipartisan anti-China feeling in Washington.

Asked about the protests on Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said the Chinese government was adjusting its Covid measures based on the realities on the ground. “We believe that with the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the support of the Chinese people, our fight against Covid-19 will be successful,” he said at a regular news briefing. Zhao also addressed the detention of BBC journalist Ed Lawrence, who was arrested Sunday while covering the protests in Shanghai. The Communist Party “has a lot of experience accumulated over the years in dissipating social unrest,” she said. Most of the people who protested appeared to be from the Han ethnic group that dominates China.

☆ Tim Draper Touts Decision to Pull Out of China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Joyu Wang | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

TAIPEI— Tim Draper , a venture capitalist known for his early bets in Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, is feeling good about his decision to stop investing in China. In an interview in Taiwan, where he is pursuing new investments, Mr. Draper slammed China’s Xi Jinping , whom he called a “weak leader,” saying the country is going backward after more than four decades of former leader Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” policy.

☆ Xi shook up the power order in China, but the world should expect little change — because Xi is still the complete puppet master, 2 experts say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Last month, Xi Jinping announced who would join him to be the top seven officials in China. Kevin Frayer/Stringer/Getty ImagesBoosted to the second-in-command spot by Xi, Li is thought to be one of the president's closest protégés. Having been the lowest-ranked member of the previous standing committee, Zhao has jumped four positions to get to his current role. It indicates to me that Xi Jinping is satisfied with the work that Zhao has done," said Loh. "Xi Jinping makes it very clear.

☆ Analysis: Xi's next premier faces tough task reviving Chinese economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's economic tsar, Liu He, a U.S.-trained economist who is seen as the brains behind earlier reforms, will be replaced by He Lifeng, another Xi acolyte. "We face the problem of weakening expectations and confidence and it's empty talk if we cannot revitalise the economy," Jia said. China's economic miracle started in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping kicked off historic reforms, allowing more private enterprises and opening the economy to foreign investment. The poll showed China's growth could pick up to 5.0% in 2023, helped by a lower base. Xi's Standing Committee choices disappointed investors who had been hoping he would keep some reform-minded officials, including former Guangdong party boss Wang Yang.

HONG KONG — Xi Jinping secured a historic third term as leader of China on Sunday, cementing his status as the country’s most powerful figure in decades and extending his authoritarian rule over the world’s second-largest economy. The Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping introduced the limit in 1982 to prevent a return to a Mao-style cult of personality. The Chinese leader reiterated the goal of peaceful “reunification,” without renouncing the possible use of force. “Xi still promises no specific timeline on unification.”But the Chinese leader did put greater emphasis on warning “external forces” to stay out of the Taiwan issue. A telecast of Chinese President Xi Jinping plays on a screen in Hong Kong on Monday.

☆ Factbox: China's Communist Party amends its charter, strengthens Xi power
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Oct 22 (Reuters) - China's ruling Communist Party amended its constitution on Saturday, further cementing President Xi Jinping's power ahead of what is expected to be his precedent-breaking third term as party general secretary. The party constitution, or charter, is a document of ultimate authority by which all 96 million party members must abide, and amendments remain effective indefinitely. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterXi, 69, is widely expected to be confirmed on Sunday to a third five-year leadership term as party general secretary. Saturday's revisions incorporate priorities and policy directions that Xi had outlined in the past, including:-"Two Establishes", which defines Xi as the "core" leader of the party and cements his ideas as the guiding principles of China's future development. -"Two Safeguards", which assures Xi's "core" status within the party and the party's centralised authority over China.

☆ China says it's running on a new version of democracy that doesn't rely on elections. Experts say it's just another mind game.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

He first introduced the term "whole-process democracy" to China in a 2019 speech. However, by November that year, "whole-process democracy" was mentioned in 128 People's Daily articles, per CMP. "China's whole-process people's democracy integrates process-oriented democracy with results-oriented democracy, procedural democracy with substantive democracy, direct democracy with indirect democracy and people's democracy with the will of the state," says China's white paper on the subject, per CGTN. Semantics aside, a key point to note is that "whole-process democracy" plays down the need for elections. Even so, Chong said, whole-process democracy might still help the CCP give the impression that it cares about the average citizen.

But the theme of the event is continuity — of President Xi Jinping as leader, and with that the likelihood of friction with the U.S.-led West. Xi, China’s most powerful leader in decades, is poised to secure an unprecedented third term at this week’s twice-a-decade National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. “Those achievements have certainly strengthened the president’s leadership.”Under Xi, China’s gross domestic product has more than doubled to $17.7 trillion. Born in Beijing in 1953, Xi enjoyed a privileged youth as the second son of Xi Zhongxun, a Chinese communist revolutionary. “The long-term goals of President Xi, as well as general attitudes in the West, will make it very difficult for us to have more cooperation during his third term,” she said.

☆ The Thoughts of Chairman Xi
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The most important election in the world this year is no election at all. When China’s Communist Party anoints President Xi Jinping for a third five-year term this week, it will confirm China’s combination of aggressive nationalism and Communist ideology that is the single biggest threat to world freedom. It all but guarantees an era of confrontation between China and the U.S.***We say this with regret, and not only because war with China would be a catastrophe. When China embarked on its reform project under Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s, there was reason to hope that the Middle Kingdom might eventually leave behind its murderous Communist past. For a time, into the 2000s, that still seemed possible as reforms continued and Chinese living standards increased.

☆ China ex-official Zhang makes first appearance since sexual assault claim
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Chinese former Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli made his first public appearance on Sunday since Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai accused him of sexual assault last year, attending the 20th Communist Party Congress. Her post led the Women's Tennis Association to suspend tournaments in China and caused an international outcry over her safety. Hu, 79, slightly unsteady but appearing healthy, followed immediately behind Xi onto the stage and sat next to Xi. Other retired leaders on the rostrum included other former members of the party's elite Standing Committee, which rules China, including Jia Qinglin and Zeng Qinghong. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Yew Lun Tian; Writing by Ben Blanchard and William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"Given the economic and social strain caused by sticking to an increasingly unpopular COVID zero policy, Xi's speech might sound defensive to many Chinese citizens, insisting that the Party has their best interests in mind. ALFRED WU, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE"It is obvious that security is Xi's greatest concern. ZHIWU CHEN, PROFESSOR OF FINANCE, UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG"One significant change is to de-emphasise economic development and economic reform. BATES GILL, PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF SECURITY STUDIES AND CRIMINOLOGY, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, SYDNEY"This speech said 'continuity' and full speed ahead. "But this was not intended as a policy speech.

Then came the pandemic and a property crisis, and with them, clear evidence of the limits of the debt-fuelled, investment-driven model that had propelled China's economy and businesses like Shores'. "If there is no investment, consumption will be like a tree without roots," said Jia, who previously led a finance ministry think tank. Many uncertainties hang over China's economy: the zero-COVID policy, a crackdown on tech and other industries, geopolitical tensions and rising borrowing costs in export markets. China is widely expected to miss this year's 5.5% GDP growth target and Natixis estimates growth may not even top 3% a year into Xi's next mandate. Oxford Economics expects average annual GDP growth this decade to halve from the 1999-2019 average to 4.5% and slow to 3% in the decade after.

She also outlined steps to boost the military including with mass production of precision missiles and warships. Xi is widely expected to win his third term at the one-every-five-years party congress. "When we say achievement, for Taiwan it's definitely not a good sign, it's not a good thing," Lin said. One senior Taiwanese security official said Xi's third term would bring "unpredictable tensions" across the strait. But China has refused to speak to his successor, Tsai, since she was first elected in 2016, believing her to be a separatist.

☆ China's 'liberal' Wang Yang seen as possible premier as reshuffle looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( James Pomfret | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

During his time in Guangdong, which borders Hong Kong, Wang made his mark by pushing an upgrade of rusting industries and touting socially inclusive policies. Wang was passed over for promotion to the Politburo Standing Committee in 2012, but as vice premier he helped oversee China's external economic relations including with the United States. YOUTH LEAGUELike Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua - another premiership contender - Wang has ties to the Communist Youth League, a faction seen to be a rival to Xi's. In recent years under Xi, Wang has seemingly tempered his reformist tendencies, echoing the party's tough line on sensitive political issues including Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet, while expressing support for Xi. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by James Pomfret; Editing by Tony Munroe and Lincoln Feast.

☆ Analysis: How China's Xi accumulated power, and why it matters in a third term
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Yew Lun Tian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

A visitor takes pictures in front of a screen displaying an image of Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the Museum of the Communist Party of China in Beijing, China September 3, 2022. Restoring the practice, which entails self-criticism in front of the general secretary, marked a small but symbolic example of how Xi has departed from China's collective leadership of recent decades and accumulated power unseen since Mao's time. The expected absence of a clear successor will also enable Xi to rule unchallenged but potentially ratchets up risk the longer he stays in power. Many were purged, including rivals for power like the popular former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai. Xi also oversaw a crushing of dissent and forbade "disrespectful" discussion about the party among members.

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