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☆ Fed Chair Powell: Too early to say when to expect rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

While Powell and other officials say they’re not even thinking about cutting rates just yet, some investors expect cuts to begin around the middle of next year. With Treasury yields sliding in recent weeks, so have mortgage rates, and rate cuts next year would help that along. Inflation, spending and mortgagesConsumer spending and inflation both eased in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. What Fed officials are sayingFed officials have broadly acknowledged that economic conditions are setting the stage for inflation to continue its descent. While some Fed officials have expressed optimism, others remain unconvinced that the Fed’s job is done.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, ”, Powell, they’re, Freddie Mac, Christopher Waller, John Williams, “ We’ve, Michelle Bowman, “ Organizations: DC CNN — Investors, Federal, Spelman College, Treasury, Fed, December’s Fed, Commerce Department, ”, Washington . New York Fed, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Atlanta, September’s, America, doldrums, Washington . New, Salt Lake City

☆ It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (for the Economy)
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Ella Koeze | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

This shows inflation-adjusted monthly retail spending for the past three decades. You can see the pattern even more clearly by looking at each month’s spending as a percentage of the yearly total. In the midst of the Great Recession, people cut back on nonessential holiday spending, and end-of-the-year purchases took a significant hit. This seasonal trend is robust enough that it’s visible in our economy beyond just end-of-the-year retail shopping and food. Americans’ ability to spend their way through the darkest months of the year is a key component in the health of the economy.

Organizations: ust

☆ Isabeau Levito, 16, wins first major international figure skating competition
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( Manav Tanneeru | Aimee Lewis | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —American teenager Isabeau Levito has won her first senior major international figure staking competition, claiming the Grand Prix de France title on Saturday to set up a potential US clean sweep this weekend. Despite finishing third in the Free Skate, the 16-year-old’s overall total of 203.22 was enough for victory and qualification to December’s Grand Prix Final. Thankfully for Levito, the top three from the Short Program all failed to dazzle on Saturday. Grand Prix de France is the third of the six Grands Prix of the season. The 18-year-old is in first place after the Short Program.

Persons: Isabeau Levito, Belgium’s Nina Pinzarrone, Rion Sumiyoshi, “, I’m, ” Levito, Levito, Ashley Wager, Ilia Malinin Organizations: CNN, Prix de France, Prix, Skate, NBC, Skate America Locations: Japan, Angers, France

☆ China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Most of these 3,000-plus entities were created by local governments during the 2008 crisis to skirt a central government ban on direct state borrowing. These vehicles had already accumulated 80 trillion yuan of liabilities at the end of 2022, according to analysts at Guosheng Securities. At a more optimistic 30% discount, the proceeds would jump to 55 trillion yuan, which would cover all outstanding interest-bearing debt. S&P analysts calculate that about 20 trillion yuan of LGFVs’ loans may be at risk of restructuring. If Xi won't boost property wholeheartedly and is not able to count on consumers, his efforts to revive China’s growth have to focus on smashing the great wall of local debt.

Persons: Wen Jiabao, Xi Jinping, Wen, Xi, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, HK, Guosheng Securities, Citi, Finance, Reuters Graphics, Financial Times, Investment, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Shanghai, New York, China's Southwestern Guizhou, United States

☆ Airlines report soaring profits amid travel demands
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Eva Rothenberg | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —International airlines have reported significant profits this year, boosted by strong demand for leisure travel – and events, such as the World Cup, which gave Qatar Airlines an enormous lift. On Thursday, International Airlines Group, which includes Aer Lingus and British Airways, announced a record profit of about $1.4 billion for the first half of the year. “Customer demand remains strong across the Group, particularly for leisure travel, with around 80% of passenger revenue for the third quarter already booked. Qatar Airways reported a $1.2 billion profit for the past fiscal year, ascribing its strong performance to December’s FIFA World Cup. In its report, Qatar Airways said that, throughout the 2022 World Cup, the company operated around 140,000 flights to bring more than 1.4 million people to Qatar.

Persons: Luis Gallego, Benjamin Smith, Akbar Al Baker, Michael O’Leary, – CNN’s Mostafa Salem, Pierre Meilhan Organizations: CNN — International, Qatar, International Airlines Group, Aer Lingus, British Airways, KLM Group, Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, Olympic, Paralympic Games, Air, Qatar Airways, KLM, FIFA, Ryanair, Europe’s Locations: AirFrance, Amsterdam, France, Air France, Qatar

☆ Hong Kong stocks slump on worries about Chinese banks, US interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong stocks on Thursday recorded their worst day in four months, after Goldman Sachs downgraded major Chinese banks on local government debt risks and the US Federal Reserve gave a hawkish outlook. Financial shares led the sell-off, after Goldman Sachs downgraded several Chinese banks. The Hang Seng Mainland Banks Index, which tracks mainland Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong, plummeted 6.5%. These banks face earnings risks stemming from their exposure to China’s local government debt, the Wall Street firm said. Sentiment in Hong Kong markets was also affected by the Fed’s hawkish rate outlook.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping’s, ” “, ”, Stephen Innes, Janet Yellen, Biden, Korea’s Kospi Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, US Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific . Financial, Mainland Banks Index, Commerical Bank of China, Industrial Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Huaxia Bank, US, Nikkei Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, Mainland, “, China, Beijing, Shanghai

☆ Wuhan is so cash-strapped it's calling in debts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

It urged them to pay their overdue debts as soon as possible. The public appeal by Wuhan, which was at the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic that began in late 2019, is highly unusual and underscores the fiscal challenges facing China’s local governments. A real estate crash has exacerbated the problem, as local governments rely heavily on land sale revenues. Analysts estimate China’s outstanding government debts surpassed 123 trillion yuan ($18 trillion) last year, of which nearly $10 trillion is so-called “hidden debt” owed by risky local government financing platforms. Wuhan and Kunming are not the only city governments revealing the extent of their debt problems.

☆ China’s economic recovery is on track. But youth unemployment is getting worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s economic recovery appears to be on track as it gradually emerges from three years of its strict zero-Covid policy. But rising youth unemployment underscores the tough challenges ahead for the new government to achieve its economic targets and maintain social stability. “The economic data released today confirmed the recovery in China was well on track,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Recent PMI figures had indicated a strong recovery in China’s economic activity, with February’s factory output from large, state-owned enterprises hitting the highest level in more than a decade. A large number of employment seekers line up outside a job fair in Nanning, Guangxi province on February 18, 2023.

☆ Inflation Report Arrives as Fed Confronts Bank Failures
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Gabriel T. Rubin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Labor Department’s inflation reading Tuesday will inform the Federal Reserve on price pressures in the economy as the central bank confronts bank failures. The inflation rate has cooled from a recent peak last June, but has remained stubbornly high. The consumer-price index, a closely watched measure of inflation, advanced 6.4% in January from a year earlier, just edging down from December’s 6.5% increase.

☆ New York Fed model finds inflation pressures more persistent than thought
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The new findings out Thursday from the New York Fed add a fresh complication to the monetary policy outlook and could help reinforce the view that aggressive Fed rate hikes have yet to make the needed dent in price pressures. The pickup in inflation in the model has been driven by core goods and core services stripped of housing components. Reuters GraphicsThe New York Fed research shows it's even more problematic than previously estimated. The New York Fed released its report after Powell on Wednesday completed two days of testimony before Congress. In his appearance, Powell acknowledged that inflation pressures had been proving more persistent than he expected in an economy whose overall performance was also stronger than policy makers had thought.

☆ You Can’t Fire Them, They Quit
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

There are still far more job openings than there were before the pandemic. Johnny Paycheck didn’t have the guts to say “Take this job and shove it.” You can’t say the same thing for a lot of U.S. workers. The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that the number of unfilled jobs in the U.S. at the end of January slipped to seasonally adjusted 10.82 million from December’s 11.23 million, and that the number of layoffs and discharges during January picked up to 1.72 million from 1.48 million a month earlier.

☆ U.S. Job Openings Fell, Layoffs Rose in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

U.S. job openings fell in January and layoffs rose in a sign demand for workers could be cooling a little in the historically tight labor market. There were a seasonally adjusted 10.8 million job openings in January, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down from December’s upwardly revised 11.2 million. The government figures join private-sector estimates through February showing early signs of cooling demand for U.S. workers.

☆ Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment. But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers. Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why today's inflation report is so important
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Recent data has shown that inflation is still hot, and that the economy is rip-roaring. On Thursday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon publicly expressed his doubt in the central bank’s ability to control inflation. This, in turn, can help make it easier for the central bank to achieve its inflation targets. Blackrock analysts wrote in a note Thursday that “we think we are going to be living with inflation. Watson was accused in a federal indictment of having “engaged in a scheme to defraud OZY’s investors, potential investors, potential acquirers, lenders and potential lenders.”The charges said that Watson committed the fraud “through material misrepresentations and omissions” about Ozy Media, including the company’s finances, investors, business partners, contracts, and potential acquisitions.

☆ Fed's Mester says hot inflation data affirms case for more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The government inflation report “is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us. Mester spoke in the wake of the release of government data on incomes, spending and price pressures. “We just need to see all those prices coming back down and we haven't seen that sustainably yet,” Mester said. Since Mester called for a 50 basis point hike, jobs data has been very robust and inflation has been stronger than expected, suggesting her case for larger action remains in place. Mester reiterated in the interview that she still believes the federal funds rate, now at between 4.5% and 4.75%, needs to get above 5% and stay there to bring inflation down.

☆ Inflation surprisingly rose in January, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Minneapolis CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge heated up unexpectedly in January, showing the continued strength of the US economy – and that rising prices won’t be so easily defeated. Inflation picked up speed in January as the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 5.4% in January from a year earlier, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. In December, prices rose 5.3% annually. The Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, the Core PCE Index (which strips out the often volatile food and energy categories) showed prices rising 0.6% on a monthly basis and 4.7% for the 12 months ending in January. Consumer spending and personal incomes rose 1.8% and 0.6% last month, respectively, according to the report.

☆ U.S. food benefits for poor to shrink as pandemic provisions end
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Leah Douglas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives may also pursue further cuts to food assistance to shrink the U.S. deficit. “It’s going to put millions of households at risk of hunger,” said Eric Mitchell, president of the Alliance to End Hunger. The changes mean cuts of about $82 a month beginning in March for recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, said Ellen Vollinger of the Food Research & Action Center, an anti-hunger group. But in December’s spending bill fight, Congress negotiated a compromise to end them in February in exchange for a new summer food program for children. More than 76% of the current farm bill’s $428 billion price tag went to food assistance programs that serve 41 million people annually.

☆ Premarket stocks: Don't underestimate the American shopper
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All that extra cash should support strong spending through February and perhaps March, said Bank of America analysts. That means the Fed may use the strong data as an excuse to keep hiking interest rates. Recession risk may be deferred, but it certainly hasn’t dissipated.”PPI, housing starts and bald spots: What investors are watching today▸ Thursday morning brings two big data releases: The January Producer Price Index and housing starts. ▸ Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, have declined every month since August. Housing starts are expected to decline slightly.

☆ Inflation Brings Back the Heat
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve can probably take last month’s bump up in inflation in stride. That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t care about it. The Labor Department on Tuesday reported that overall consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in January from December and it revised December’s monthly change from down 0.1% to up 0.1%. Core prices, which exclude the often volatile food and energy categories in an attempt to better capture inflation’s trend, rose 0.4% in January, with December’s gains revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.

☆ Inflation has gone supercore
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The new favorite: supercore inflation. Supercore inflation refers to prices that rise when workers get paid more for their services. “Supercore inflation was a strong 6.4% on a year-over-year basis through December 2022, but it is moderating,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist. For the three months through December, supercore inflation is up only 2.4% annualized, and just 0.9% annualized in the month of December. “Supercore inflation is still way too hot, but it has begun to cool off, and all signs point to it and overall inflation getting back to something more comfortable over the coming 12-18 months,” Zandi told CNN.

☆ The Fed Keeps Hiking Interest Rates. Here’s Why You Should ‘Absolutely’ Act Now for Better Savings and CD Rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

By Martha C. WhiteThe Fed is set to send savings and CD rates higher yet again. On Wednesday, the Fed announced a quarter-percentage-point interest rate increase to its benchmark federal-funds rate, following its Jan. 31-Feb.1 meeting. Policy makers’ economic projections released in December show that Fed officials don’t expect inflation to hit 2.1% until 2025. “It’s going to be slow, but I think the trend is going to be higher” rates. If that’s your bank, he adds, you “absolutely should be taking advantage of a higher rate savings account.”

☆ Job openings unexpectedly jump to 11 million in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The 11 million openings for December is the highest since July. The largest increases in job openings were in accommodation and food services, which were up 409,000; retail trade, up 134,000; and construction, up 82,000, according to the BLS report. “The labor market continues to defy the recession predictions of experts,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a statement. Layoffs increased to 1.47 million from 1.41 million in November, and the number of people quitting their jobs ticked down to 4.09 million from 4.1 million. Still, there may be something more than meets the eye in December’s openings number, she added.

☆ China's cities are struggling to pay their bills from three years of Covid and a real estate crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Rolling lockdowns seriously dented household incomes, leading many to reduce spending, which in turn resulted in less tax revenue for local governments. “China’s runaway local debt poses a serious threat to the country’s overall economic health and will weigh heavily on China’s still-nascent recovery,” said Singleton. Debt that is backed by local governments but which doesn’t show up on their balance sheets could be much bigger. That’s more than 20% higher than the estimate of 53 trillion yuan made by Goldman Sachs in 2021. Their debt squeeze could pose a serious threat to China’s financial system, particularly to small regional banks.

☆ Consumers say they’re feeling better about the economy. But they’re still planning for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Minneapolis CNN —For the second month in a row, consumers said they are feeling better about the economy. The University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer sentiment index measured 64.9 for January, according to data released Friday. A separate report released earlier on Friday showed that consumers cut back on their spending in December and started stashing more in their savings as they prepare for a potential recession. Long-run inflation expectations held at 2.9%, according to the report. “Consumers continued to exhibit considerable uncertainty over both long- and short-term inflation expectations, indicating the tentative nature of any declines,” Hsu said in comments accompanying the report.

☆ Pending home sales increased last month for the first time since May
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May, a sign that lower mortgage rates are bringing some buyers back into the housing market. The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, improved by 2.5% from November to December, according to data released Friday from the National Association of Realtors. Pending sales dropped in the Northeast, where the index was down 6.5% in December from November; and in the Midwest, where the index was down 0.3%. Pending sales were up 6.1% in the South in December from November and rose 6.4% in the West. “Mortgage applications have been trending higher alongside lower rates, pending home sales are up, and builder confidence increased in January,” Kushi said.

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