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The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

Current funding for most U.S. government programs except for the military and Social Security payments expires on Sept. 30. The government would continue to make payments on Treasury bonds and other forms of debt during a shutdown. A government shutdown would prevent the collection and release of key market data including gross domestic product, unemployment figures and inflation data, clouding the ability of central bankers to gauge the strength of the economy, Cantrill said. "The Fed – who has emphasized how data-dependent it currently is – would be flying blind" into the central bank's policy meeting in November, she said. Economists at Capital Economists, meanwhile, said in a note on Monday that the risk of a shutdown is rising but said they expect a quick resolution.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, PIMCO, Libby Cantrill, Goldman Sachs, Kevin McCarthy, Cantrill, There's, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Capitol, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Social, Goldman, . House, Capital Economists, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, shutdowns, New York, London

☆ ‘Higher for longer’ rates remain a threat to U.S. stocks after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. In the 12-months through August, the CPI jumped 3.7%, though year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Markets now anticipate that the Fed will cut rates for the first time in July 2024, compared with expectations a month ago that rates would begin falling by March. “Earnings are what matter from here, particularly with an AI sector that needs to justify expectations." Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Alex McGrath, Kevin Gordon, Charlie McElligott, ”, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sharon Singleton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Futures, Treasury, U.S ., Schwab Center, Financial Research JPMorgan, Nomura, Nvidia, Companies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Analysis: Potential US government shutdown could dent investor confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Investors might be more sensitive to a shutdown this time around, however. With only weeks to go before the deadline, the Republican-led House of Representatives has approved only one of those 12 bills. 'LESS FRIENDLY POLICY'If it occurs, the shutdown would be the fourth over the last decade and would furlough roughly three of out five federal civilian workers. The White House last month said it was working with Congress to hammer out a short-term funding measure to avoid a shutdown while longer-term spending talks continue. Analysts at Ned Davis Research said a shutdown could add to factors threatening to roil the economy into next year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, ”, Jamie Cox, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Ned Davis, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Goldman, Social, Federal, Harris Financial Group, Caucus, House Republican, Republican, Senate, Congressional, Office, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Democrats, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CFRA Research, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ UBS sees end of S&P 500 profit recession, index to 4,700 by June 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The logo of UBS is seen prior to a press conference of the Swiss bank after the takeover of Credit Suisse, in Zurich, Switzerland, August 31, 2023. "The improving profit picture is one of the key reasons that we think the market can hold on to its year-to-date gains," he said, citing the nearly 20% gain in the S&P 500 for the year to date. UBS expects the S&P 500 end the year at 4,500, up around 1% from its trading price Wednesday, and reach 4,700 by June. Overall, profit expectations for the median company in the S&P 500 are up 5.6% since July 2022, UBS said, while estimates are at or above all-time highs in every sector but energy, healthcare, and materials. Reporting by David RandallOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, David Lefkowitz, David Randall Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, UBS Financial Services, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Zurich, Switzerland, U.S

☆ Analysis: US healthcare stocks roiled by investor tug of war over economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Many view healthcare as a defensive sector because it has constant demand and is somewhat insulated from the economy. In the latest week, investors pulled a net $1.4 billion from the sector, the biggest weekly outflow since May 2022. Overall, the healthcare sector - which ranges from health insurers like UnitedHealth to pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer to small biotechs - has received the third largest inflows of any sector year to date, BofA's data showed. This would weaken the case for loading up on healthcare stocks. Overall, healthcare sector earnings are expected to lag this year as COVID-related revenues decline 13% versus a 1.8% rise for the overall S&P 500.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bob Kalman, Emily Roland, Dan Lyons, Janus Henderson, you've, Lyons, Kalman, Joe Biden's, Margie Patel, Patel, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, David Gregorio, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Atlanta Federal, BofA Global Research, Pfizer, Miramar Capital, Healthcare, John Hancock Investment Management, Janus Henderson Investors, U.S, Bristol Myers Squibb, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Historically stormy month of September may test US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. In Septembers since 1945, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 0.7%, the worst performance of any month, according to CFRA. Of course, bullish stock investors have largely been rewarded for looking past potential pitfalls this year. "The correction started on the first day of the month, and now it has corrected the conditions that made it vulnerable," Hayes said. Reporting by David Randall; Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, Jerome Powell, Sandy Villere, Goldman Sachs, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Natixis, Solutions, U.S, Villere, Pfizer, Abbott Laboratories, Investors, Republicans, U.S . House, Goldman, Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Jackson

Stocks - which have wobbled in August as rising bond yields threatened to dull the allure of equities - were little changed with the S&P 500 up 0.22%. REVIVING RECESSION WORRIESSome investors were worried that higher rates could weigh on growth and increase the chances of a recession next year. Such a scenario, in theory, would force the Fed to cut rates, pulling bond yields lower. But while risks remained that long-term bond yields could move higher, he was looking to extend the duration of his portfolio. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, John Williams, Ann Saphir, Powell, ”, Cindy Beaulieu, Jackson, “ Powell, Anders Persson, Mike Sewell, Rowe Price, Josh Emanuel, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Fed, Kansas, Fed, REUTERS, Kansas City, Financial, Treasury, Investors, Futures, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

Strong economic growth has spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave rates higher for longer, pushing Treasury yields this month to their highest levels since 2007. The S&P 500 has lost 4% this month as the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a more than 15-year high of 4.366% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) has dropped 5.7%, bitcoin has fallen over 10% and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.P) - a bastion of many high-growth names - has dropped 18.5%. Stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.7% and futures pointed to a further rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is over 8% below its January 2022 closing high.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, bitcoin, Sameer Samana, ”, Jerome Powell, Matt Maley, Miller, Goldman Sachs, Randy Frederick, Frederick, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Bill Berkrot Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Innovation, U.S ., Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Lipper, Investor, Deutsche Bank, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Samana, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Less cash, fewer bears could leave U.S. stocks vulnerable
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The upshot, some believe, is that there is now less cash on the sidelines to drive further gains and fewer skeptical investors to win over. The bank’s survey of fund managers showed cash allocations dropped to 4.8% in August, the lowest level in 21 months. Bearishness among retail investors, meanwhile, is at half the levels seen in September 2022, according to the AAII Sentiment Survey. Should the market stabilize, investors will likely reallocate more cash to stocks later in the year, she said. Of course, while optimism has grown, it is still far from extreme, and cash levels are far from historical lows.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, that’s “, Willie Delwiche, Quincy Krosby, Steve Chiavarone, Chiavarone, ”, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BofA Global Research, Mount Research, Federal, U.S ., China Evergrande, HK, U.S, LPL, Federated Hermes, Thomson Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ Tech sell-off, rising yields push Cathie Wood's ARK ETF down 20% for month
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - A swift sell-off in technology stocks and surge in Treasury yields are punishing Cathie Wood's flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.P), leaving the closely followed fund down more than 20% for the month of August. Much of the gains for the year came as inflation concerns ebbed and longer-duration Treasury yields subsided. Yet signs of strength in the U.S. economy have helped push 10-year Treasury yields up nearly 30 basis points this month to 10-month highs and within inches of their highest levels since 2007. Higher yields often weigh heavily on technology stocks by decreasing the value of their future profit. August has been particularly challenging for the fund, which has lost ground every trading day but two this month.

Persons: Cathie Wood, Brendan McDermid, Cathie, Wood, David Randall, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Ark Invest, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Innovation, Coinbase, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoHONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Chinese fears of a spillover from missed payments on some shadow banking linked trust products and worsening consumer sentiment are expected to hasten a policy response to revive the country's cash-starved property sector. Zhongrong International Trust Co, which traditionally had sizable real estate exposure, has recently missed repayments on some investment products, fuelling contagion fears. 'CONTAGION'The trust sector had been a major fundraising channel for property developers seeking rapid expansion. The outstanding value of trust products invested in the property sector was 1.2 trillion yuan as of end-2022, down about 30% year-on-year. Still, exposure to the real estate sector varies from different trust firms.

Persons: Aly, Yan Wang, Nomura, Arthur Kroeber, Kamil Dimmich, Phillip Wool, Wool, Vidya Ranganathan, Laura Matthews, David Randall, Ziyi Tang, Sumeet Chatterjee, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, HONG KONG, Trust Co, Barclays, International Trust, South Capital LLP, China Equity ETF, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Zhongrong, Beijing, New York, London, Singapore, Summer Zhen

☆ Tudor, Adage Capital among hedge funds making bets on NYC office space
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Basswood Capital, Adage Capital Partners and Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp were among the hedge funds that took new positions in real estate investment trusts that specialize in New York City office space last quarter, despite questions over how long work-from-home policies will weigh on the market, securities filings released on Monday showed. Basswood Capital purchased roughly 360,000 shares of Vornado Realty Trust and nearly 72,000 shares of SL Green, while Adage Capital Partners bought 205,000 shares of SL Green. Tudor Investment Corp bought nearly 152,000 shares of SL Green. Shares of Vornado are up nearly 7% for the year to date, while shares of SL Green are up slightly less than 1%. Basswood, Adage Capital, and Tudor Investment Corp did not respond to requests for comment.

Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, KBRA, David Randall, Richard Chang Organizations: Basswood, Capital Partners, Tudor Investment Corp, Basswood Capital, Vornado Realty Trust, SL Green, SL, New, Reuters, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: New York City

REUTERS/Adrees LatifNEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Michael Burry, the money manager made famous in the book and film "The Big Short," held bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index at the end of the second quarter, according to securities fillings released on Monday. Put options convey the right to sell shares at a fixed price in the future and are typically bought to express a bearish or defensive view. Michael Lewis' nonfiction book "The Big Short" was released in 2010 and the movie version came out in 2015. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is up roughly 17% for the year to date while the Nasdaq 100 (.IXIC) is up nearly 39% over the same period. Burry, who frequently turns over his portfolio, drew wide attention last August when he dumped all of his long positions and bought a stake in prison company Geo Group Inc (GEO.N).

Persons: Adrees Latif, Michael Burry, Michael Lewis, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Nasdaq, REUTERS, YORK, Scion Asset Management, U.S, Nvidia, HK, Alibaba Group Holdings, Western Alliance Bancorp, First Republic Bank, RealReal Inc, Warner Bros ., Warner Brothers, Scion, Management, Geo Group Inc, Thomson Locations: Square, Midtown New York, New York

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Hopes of 'Goldilocks' economy, rate peak buoy US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% this year after gaining around 1% in the past week. At the same time, investors believe the Fed is unlikely to deliver much more of the monetary policy tightening that shook markets last year. A test of the economy comes next week, when the U.S. reports employment numbers for July. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 44% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 information technology sector has gained nearly 46%. The S&P 500 tech sector now trades at 28.2 times forward earnings, from 19.6 at the start of the year.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Bob Kalman, Torsten Slok, Burns McKinney, Randy Frederick, wouldn't, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Miramar Capital, Apollo Global Management, Meta, Roku Inc, NJF Investment Group, Apple, Microsoft, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Miramar

With its latest 25 basis point interest rate increase now in the books, the Fed has raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022 to a level last seen before the 2007 housing market crash in a fight to bring down inflation. Still, some fixed income investors have remained on edge over how long the Fed can keep interest rates at restrictive levels without sparking an economic downturn. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures traders saw increased probability of another interest rate increase in September. To be sure, investors had badly overestimated the chances for recession at the beginning of this year and could be wrong again. Over the past year the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly low and growth has run consistently above trend.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Gurpreet Gill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, Kristy Akullian, It's, Adam Hetts, Janus Henderson, Mike Sanders, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Barclays, BlackRock, Investment, Treasury, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Madison Investments, U.S . Bank, Thomson

☆ Sensing end of Fed hikes, some investors return to dividend stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That has helped pressure many of the market’s popular dividend-paying stocks, which investors had turned to when rates were far lower. "The dividend-paying value side of the market is a pretty compelling place to go to maintain that return." Nevertheless, investors are seeking out dividend-paying stocks as a source of total return this year in anticipation that bond yields may falter while stocks continue to gain, Silverblatt said. “If you are going into dividend paying stocks now, you are taking that risk because you think there's a high probability that the market goes up," he said. Corso is searching for dividend-paying companies in cyclical sectors such as financials, where valuations are less expensive.

Persons: Jurrien Timmer, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, hadn't, Cliff Corso, Corso, Bryant VanCronkhite, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fidelity Investments, BoFA Global Research, Dow Jones Indices, Companies, Asset Management, Fed, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Relentless U.S. stock rally faces Fed test
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% year-to-date and closed on Thursday at 4,534.87, only about 6% below an all-time high reached in January 2022. What the Fed does and says next week will be critical," said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management. "Bearish investors have had to capitulate," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The bank last month raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,500, from 4,000. However, Christopher Tsai, chief investment officer at Tsai Capital, is not worried about buying into an overvalued market.

Persons: Cliff Corso, Jonathan Golub, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Eric Freedman, Goldman Sachs, Sunitha Thomas, We've, Christopher Tsai, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management, Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, Fundstrat Global, Yardeni Research, National Association of Active Investment, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Consumers, Northern Trust, Tsai, MSCI Inc, Zoetis Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jonathan Golub of

☆ Leveraged bets in US Treasury market could 'amplify' stress, BoE warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - Large leveraged bets by hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market could "amplify stress" in global financial markets should rates markets move sharply, the Bank of England said in a report published on Wednesday. Hedge funds have taken record short positions in two- and five-year Treasury futures this year, suggesting that fund managers expect short-term interest rates to continue to move higher. "Really what the market is looking for is a little bit more clarity from the Fed and other global central banks as to where terminal rates will ultimately be, and that will ultimately translate into more conviction in the rates market," he said. "Asset managers continued to add to (Treasury) exposure with leveraged funds taking the other side," the report noted. Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Benjamin Jeffery, David Randall, Paul Simao Organizations: YORK, U.S . Treasury, Bank of England, Treasury, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

☆ Cathie Wood's ARK fund hits 11-month high as inflation ebbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - The flagship fund of star stockpicker Cathie Wood hit an 11-month high Wednesday, extending a rally that has been powered by bets that inflation would fall rapidly and benefit the sort of speculative technology stocks she is known for. The $8.4 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.P) rose 0.6% in morning trading Wednesday to its highest level since August 2022. Wood's fund was among the worst-performing U.S. equity funds overall in 2022 as she continued to downplay the impact of inflation and said that deflation would be the larger issue driving markets. Lower interest rates help unprofitable or other early-stage companies by lowering their borrowing costs and increasing the value of future profits. "Anything that puts interest rate hikes at bay is definitely positive for any small-cap or speculative tech stock," he said.

Persons: stockpicker Cathie Wood, Jamie Cox, David Randall Organizations: YORK, Coinbase Global Inc, Sciences, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial Group, Thomson

That compares with a 14.8% gain for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX). Microsoft (MSFT.O), Apple (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) combined account for 43.8% weight in the index, according to Refinitiv data as of Monday's close. The special rebalancing may be conducted at any time if the aggregate weight of companies, each having more than 4.5% weight in the index, tops 48%, according to Nasdaq. COULD THE S&P 500 FOLLOW SUIT? Apple and Microsoft are the only two firms with weight over 4.5% in the S&P 500.

Persons: Hogan, Cameron Lilja, Dow, Wells, Sam Stovall, Sruthi Shankar, Medha Singh, Bansari, David Randall, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Riley, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Dow Jones, Tesla, Booking Holdings, Gilead Sciences, Devices, CFRA, Thomson Locations: Wells, Gilead, Bengaluru, New York

☆ Wall St Week Ahead As earnings loom, investors weigh recession resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The financials sector is down 2%, while energy is nearly 9% lower. These unloved sectors are growing attractive to investors increasingly torn over whether a long-feared U.S. recession will ever materialize. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial noted a "tug of war" in the market over the likelihood of a recession. The healthcare sector trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6, well below the 20.1 ratio of the broad S&P 500. Yet a continued rally in megacaps will likely stretch their valuations further, prompting some investors to rotate toward healthcare and financials, LPL Financial's Krosby said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Sameer Samana, Max Wasserman, Financials, Tom Ognar, Morgan Stanley, John Quealy, Financial's Krosby, David Randall, Megan Davies, Michelle Price, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Global, BofA, Commerce Department, LPL Financial, Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, FINANCIALS, Miramar Capital, Abbott Laboratories, Allspring Global Investments, LPL Financial Holdings Inc, Trillium Asset Management, Russell, Thomson Locations: U.S, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, megacaps

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