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Goldman Sachs thinks commercial real estate giant Cushman & Wakefield will have a tough time navigating the current macro environment. Goldman added that Cushman's interest expenses have also risen considerably as benchmark rates continue to climb. CWK YTD mountain Shares of Cushman and Wakefield have been under immense pressure so far this year, and Goldman Sachs doesn't expect a company recovery this year. Shares of Cushman are down nearly 21% in 2023, as the broader commercial real estate sector faces turmoil. Meanwhile, a tightening of liquidity will continue to pose a challenge to real estate investors, Goldman estimates, which will "more than offsets any tailwinds from potentially lower rates."
Here are Monday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bernstein reiterates Tesla as underperform Bernstein said more price cuts are coming for Tesla. Morgan Stanley reiterates Walmart as overweight Morgan Stanley said its latest survey shows Walmart+ membership is at a record. UBS reiterates McDonald's as buy UBS said the fast food giant is extremely well positioned. UBS upgrades Regions Financial to buy from neutral UBS said in its upgrade of the regional bank that it likes the company's balance sheet. Northcoast upgrades McDonald's to buy from neutral Northcoast said it sees improved profitability for McDonald's .
"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.
Real estate warning: beware the backward cap
  + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The commercial real estate industry has a different kind of backward cap – one that’s also a sign of a losing streak. The cap rate comes from dividing a property’s net operating income in any given year – money from rent minus associated costs – by the asset’s value. For more than 10 years, that gap remained positive even though cap rates were falling in virtually all real estate subsectors, from shopping malls to apartments. Reuters GraphicsAsk a large-scale real estate owner – or several – about this and they are characteristically optimistic. Reuters GraphicsWhen Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the narrowed spread between cap rates and interest costs didn’t last for long.
The Blackstone portfolio company Legence wants to be a one-stop shop for landlords. A Real Estate Board of New York study found that the total penalties could top $213 million. Its ICS became the strategic planner, its CMTA, which designed the first net-zero school in the United States, designed the upgrades, and its Gilbert Mechanical installed the new heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting hardware. How to do itIt may still be a challenge to coordinate decarbonization processes, which don't come naturally to large-scale real-estate operators, Boland said. Legence plans to grow the business's geographic scope and increase its depth in current markets, including Colorado and California, Sprau said.
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Miami Beach's mayor recently said officials "don't want spring break in our city." Spring break is among the reasons the state generates billions of dollars in tax revenue per year from tourism. But there are signs that booming population growth, which Florida's Office of Economic and Demographic Research has described as the state's "primary engine of economic growth," could help diversify the state's economy. The number of arrests in the city during spring break more than doubled in 1986 from the same period in 1985. While thousands of college students still frequent Fort Lauderdale during spring break, the city's current mayor, Dean Trantalis, described them as "very well behaved."
The Gas Company Tower in downtown Los Angeles has a sterling pedigree, but even that can't save it from the doom loop facing many older office towers. A huge swath of America's office market is vulnerable to these twin threats of being under-equipped with amenities and underwater financially. This behavioral shift has deeply cut into demand for office space. The amount of sublease space nationally more than doubled from 118.5 million square feet at the end of 2019 to 242.8 million square feet at the end of 2022, Colliers stated. Lenders are often reluctant, he said, to seize office buildings because of the costs and expertise required to operate the properties.
"Most luxury retailers don't think Hong Kong will return to the dizzy levels of 2014 when the market here peaked," said Simon Smith, Savills' senior director of research and consultancy in Hong Kong. Morgan Stanley (MS.N) forecast Hong Kong visitor numbers this year will reach just 70% of 2018 arrivals. It estimates retail sales will grow 15%, holding at around 80% of retail trade from the pre-COVID year. That outstripped total Hong Kong retail sales from a peak hit in 2013 at HK$494.5 billion ($63.0 billion), according to the city's statistics department. ($1 = 6.8510 yuan)($1 = 7.8498 Hong Kong dollars)Reporting by Farah Master, Jessie Pang, Anne Marie Roantree, Angel Woo and Donny Kwok in Hong Kong, Sophie Yu in Beijing, and Mimosa Spencer in Paris; Writing by Miyoung Kim; Editing by Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
As everything moves to the cloud, a new generation of cybersecurity platforms has emerged, combining corporate networks with security tools such as malware protection into a single system that tech leaders can manage centrally. Older technology can be upgraded to lay the groundwork for implementing a new platform, Mr. Franch said, but it needs to happen without disrupting the existing corporate network. PREVIEWAt Carriage Services, Mr. Franch wants to undertake a network modernization similar to one he oversaw as chief technology officer of commercial real-estate services company Cushman & Wakefield. Modernization tends to reduce complexity and increase visibility of what’s on the network, which can benefit security, according to Mr. Franch. Goya Foods Inc. CIO Suvajit Basu said the Jersey City, N.J.-based company uses cybersecurity services from about seven vendors and a total of about 12 cybersecurity tools, many purchased and implemented over time.
Construction of new warehouses is slowing as developers grapple with rising interest rates and declining leasing activity, potentially prolonging an ongoing shortfall in logistics space. Developers began building about 137 million square feet of new warehouse space, the lowest amount of new space to start construction in a quarter since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The company is planning development starts for the year to range between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, down from $4.7 billion in construction starts last year. Even with construction starts slowing, the pipeline of industrial projects being built remained elevated at 682.6 million square feet as of the fourth quarter, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Developers completed 143.6 million square feet of new space to finish the year, the company said, down from the record-high 148.2 million square feet delivered in the third quarter.
Prologis Inc., the world’s largest developer of logistics properties, is bullish about warehouse demand this year despite signs of an economic slowdown. Executives at San Francisco-based Prologis said Wednesday they remain cautious about building new facilities as the economy wavers. But they said vacancy rates remain near record lows and that much of the leasing activity for this year is already secured or underway. Warehouse demand peaked last year, as average national vacancy rates plummeted to near 3% and reached close to 1% in Southern California. Average occupancy in Prologis’s owned and managed portfolio ticked up to 98% in the fourth quarter from 97.7% in the prior quarter.
The co-living operators Common and Habyt merged; Pagaya brought the property manager Darwin Homes. The proptech companies that sprang up by the dozens in the past few years are now looking to one another for help. A massive consolidation among companies that seek to make real-estate transactions and services more efficient and profitable is underway. Cushman & Wakefield reported 90% occupancy rates for co-living companies at the end of the third quarter of 2022, and traditional real-estate firms like Cushman and Greystar are now offering their own co-living brands. In property management, the consolidation phase is already well underway, said Paul Stanton, the other founding partner at Proptech Bankers.
Warehouse Leasing Tumbled at the End of 2022
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +3 min
Newsletter Sign-up The Logistics Report Top news and in-depth analysis on the world of logistics, from supply chain to transport and technology. PREVIEWFor the full year, companies leased a net total of 756.8 million square feet of industrial space in 2022, down 18% from the year before. The leasing slowdown raises the potential for a glut of new warehouse space in the coming months, with 682.6 million square feet of new development in the construction pipeline, Ms. Salzer said. Developers are paring back their plans for new projects as financing becomes increasingly difficult to secure, Ms. Salzer said. The amount of new space under construction was down 4.3% compared with the previous quarter, according to the report.
Hong Kong November home prices ease to more than 5-yr low
  + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
HONG KONG, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Hong Kong private home prices dropped 3.3% in November to the lowest since August 2017, official data showed on Wednesday, as its housing market - one of the most unaffordable in the world - is set to post the first annual drop since 2008. November's fall in home prices came after a revised 2.7% drop in October. Home prices in Hong Kong have fallen 13.8% in the first 110 months of the year. For 2023, real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield expects home prices to be 0-5% lower than this year, with prices stabilizing in the second half after an expected peak of interest rates. Another consultancy, JLL, expects prices to fall another 10% next year for the mass market.
From almost nothing five years ago, the institutional residential property market has grown to the point where investors say housing is starting to challenge office buildings as a focus for their cash. And higher yields and scope for growth are spurring new projects, market players say. "We are currently surprised ourselves by the speed of the change and how the market is changing," he told Reuters. "Many institutional investors are looking to gain the first mover advantage and moving in," Wysokińska-Kuzdra told Reuters. The war in Ukraine has also created uncertainty, so that some investors are focused only on finishing current projects.
Executive women platform Chief opened a new clubhouse in San Francisco this week. ‘Sense that this is a first'On the opposite coast, a counterpart executive clubhouse just opened in San Francisco and it holds great meaning beyond its four walls. Chief's San Francisco clubhouse includes a full-service bar. A month after the San Francisco Chief club's opening, women say they already see it as a milestone moment that represents more than just a new building. “It’s interesting coming full-circle and it feels long overdue.”Executive women platform Chief opened a new clubhouse in San Francisco this week.
WiredScore certifies buildings' tech capabilities, like LEED does with environmental ratings. WiredScore CEO Arie Barendrecht walked Insider through the pitch deck he used to raise $15 million. In a world of remote work, potential office tenants have become pickier about their spaces. Generally speaking, prospective office tenants have little insight into what their office WiFi will look like. The company now also certifies technology in apartment buildings, the office of the remote worker.
"We were in contact with half of the city, all the big real estate companies ... A week before the World Cup began on Nov. 20, the rate was $250 a night, the broker said. Eleven days before kick-off, organisers had said there were at least 25,000 rooms available for every night of the World Cup. "Never ever, at no World Cup, have I heard anything like this," said Bauer of the last-minute charges. His Khaya agency has block-booked accommodation and sold rooms to fans, FIFA sponsors and other officials at three previous World Cups.
A yacht that can be rented to watch the World Cup while sailing around Dubai is docked in Dubai harbor on November 1, 2022, ahead of the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup football tournament. Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports, in August called Dubai "the major gateway" to the World Cup and predicted it would see more tourists than Qatar itself. Getty Images | A general view of the West Bay area ahead of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 at on November 18, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. "Its tourism infrastructure and straightforward entry requirements make it a convenient base for World Cup fans." Dubai, meanwhile, as a city has more than 140,000 hotel rooms, according to hotel data firm STR.
Two senior leasing executives in Los Angeles told Insider that Meta just canceled its plans to expand by 300,000 square feet in the city. KKR's decision comes as New York City's office market flagsTenants who are on the fence about taking space have little incentive to rush to commit to deals as the city's office market continues to soften. Leasing activity in Manhattan totaled 20.27 million square feet through October, according to CBRE, 38% more than the same period last year. Leasing is on track to finish the year well below prepandemic activity in 2018 and 2019, when 32.4 million and 31.6 million square feet were leased respectively in total. Cushman & Wakefield data showed there was over 21 million square feet of sublease space available in Manhattan in September.
These 15 power players are just a handful of the people designing workplaces to balance productivity, interaction, and employee well-being through indoor-air-quality monitoring systems, building amenities, holographic meeting spaces, and more. AftershipCities like Austin, Texas; Nashville, Tennessee; and Raleigh, North Carolina, began offering business-relocation incentives during the pandemic to boost their workforces and help increase occupancy in office buildings. Room's office suite includes a phone booth, a meeting room, an open meeting room, and a focus room. Room also makes a soundproof meeting room that fits two people, a more open meeting booth, and a focus room designed for quiet concentration. "The future of office work needs to be guided by a new, genuine form of flexibility in which the work, not the workers themselves, become even more malleable," Petersen writes.
Warehouse supply remains tight compared with demand, but Prologis will make decisions on new sites on a “deal by deal” basis, he added. Prologis trimmed its plans for new development starts for this year to a range of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion, from a projected range of $4.2 billion to $5 billion the prior quarter. Companies signed new leases for about 920 million square feet of warehouse space in 2021 compared with 619 million square feet in 2019, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Mr. Moghadam said Amazon hasn’t pulled out of any of its Prologis buildings or projects and the e-commerce company is taking on new space. He said e-commerce companies overall have been leasing new space to compete with Amazon’s sprawling network.
America’s Red-Hot Warehouse Market Shows Signs of Cooling
  + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +4 min
Warehouse space remains tight, with some companies still storing goods on trailers outside distribution centers, but the broader figures suggest the pressure on one supply chain choke point is easing. Newsletter Sign-up The Logistics Report Top news and in-depth analysis on the world of logistics, from supply chain to transport and technology. The firm said companies across the sector signed new leases for 163.1 million square feet of warehouse space in the third quarter compared with 207.4 million square feet the quarter before. “Maybe the froth comes off the top, but you still have a very stable and strong leasing market for industrial. Real-estate experts say part of the decline could be because companies aren’t finding enough empty warehouse space after nearly two years of frenetic construction and leasing.
A warehouse crush across the U.S. is squeezing out smaller companies as big retailers fill industrial storage sites with their growing stockpiles of inventory. Karen Galena, president of First Logistics, which has four warehouses in the Chicago area that provide space for retailers and manufacturers, said bigger customers are willing to pay higher prices for increasingly scarce storage space. “It’s tough for the small guy,” Ms. Galena said, noting labor and other costs are rising for warehouse operators. The challenges small businesses face finding warehouse space mirrors difficulties many had securing room on container ships earlier in the Covid-19 pandemic, when ocean carriers drove up rates and bumped smaller shippers to make way for larger clients. He said some companies are even generating revenue from unconventional storage space.
Bricks-and-mortar store owners are emerging from the pandemic with surprising strength, posting some of their best numbers in years and plotting expansions as more Americans venture out to buy things again. U.S. retail vacancy fell to 6.1% in the second quarter, the lowest level in at least 15 years, while asking rents for U.S. shopping centers in the quarter were 16% higher than five years ago, according to real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield .
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