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Regional banks are taking hits this week and investors are increasing their bearish bets on the sector. Higher rates impact Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing money. Higher interest rates can also reduce demand for loans, as borrowing becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses. This can deteriorate the asset quality of regional banks, increasing the need for loan loss provisions, which are expenses set aside to cover potential loan losses. Rising interest rates and inflation can pressure banks' capital adequacy ratios, a measure of a bank's capital relative to its risks.
Persons: Banks Organizations: Regional Banking, Banks
Investors looking for high-quality income, as well as a bargain, should turn to agency mortgage-backed securities, according to UBS. Agency MBS are debt obligations backed by the government and are issued by agencies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. However, agency MBS lagged their higher-quality counterparts because they are highly correlated to interest rate volatility, she said. As gross domestic product slowly trends lower, the market will become more comfortable with the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates, Falconio said. Banks, which have been investing excess deposits in Treasurys, will be among those turning to agency MBS, Falconio said.
Persons: Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Falconio, Janus Henderson, Banks Organizations: UBS, CNBC, Agency MBS, Federal Reserve, MBS, SEC, Securities ETF Locations: UBS Americas, Treasurys
Yields may be down from last year's highs, but there is still plenty for income investors to like about investment-grade corporate bonds, according to UBS. The effective yield on the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Bond Index , which tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt, is currently hovering around 5.5%. "This measures IG's return over duration-matched Treasuries, meaning that it's been advantageous to own IG over U.S. government bonds," he added. Inside the investment grade market, UBS prefers the financial sector over nonfinancial issuers, and favors short- and intermediate-term duration. Meanwhile, the spread pickup from A-rated bonds to BBB-rated bonds is historically tight, on average.
Persons: Barry McAlinden, McAlinden, Fitch Organizations: UBS, ICE, Corporate, ., Treasury, Poor's
Here's a rapid-fire update on all 33 stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use for the CNBC Investing Club. Amazon's recent AI moves have been impressive, specifically its close relationship with fellow Club holding Nvidia and, most recently, its multibillion-dollar venture investment in startup Anthropic. Best Buy : We added the electronics and appliance retailer to the portfolio shortly after the Monthly Meeting concluded. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jim Cramer, Reckitt Benckiser, Abbott, We've, Here's, Salesforce, that's, Walt Disney, Nelson Peltz, Estee Lauder, he'd, Ford, We're, we'll, Vimal Kapur, Kapur, Linde, Eli Lilly, TikTok, Meta's Ray, Morgan Stanley, Reddit, Morgan, Ted Pick, he's, it's, Stanley Black, Decker, TJ Maxx, Wells, Wynn, Spencer Platt Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Department of Justice, Abbott Laboratories, Nvidia, Broadcom, Investors, Bausch Health, Pharmaceuticals, Costco Wholesale, Costco, GTC, Coterra, DuPont De Nemours, DuPont, stoke, Peltz, Disney, Eaton Corporation, Ford, General Motors, Wall, GE Healthcare Technologies, General Electric, Apple, Google, Bloomberg, . Honeywell, Honeywell, UBS, Meta, Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, Palo Alto, Procter & Gamble, Starbucks, Constellation Brands, Stanley, TJX, Marshalls, Wynn Resorts, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: China, Costco, U.S, East, Mexican, Growth, HomeGoods, Wells Fargo, Macao
Interest in fixed income has increased over the past year after rising bond yields put them back on investors' radars. Related storiesCorporate bonds with high yields are the new darling as investors dig for returns that beat inflation, Klein said. The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index, a measurement of non-investment grade bonds, has a yield to worst (a measure of the lowest possible yield) of 7.65% and a one-year total return of 12.9%. It's unusual for equities to be doing very well and high yield to be doing poorly, he added. But buyers beware: high-yield bonds are also called non-investment grade and junk bonds, and it's for good reason.
Persons: there's, Goldman Sachs, Patrick Klein, Franklin, Klein, Goldman, don't Organizations: Business, Franklin Templeton, Bloomberg
The fund manager hasn't departed from the offense-defense strategy he outlined last summer, and he's still confused as to why more of his counterparts haven't followed suit. Related storiesThe top fund manager added: "So that leads people to this conclusion that maybe I should just index and put it all in the S&P 500. Diversifying in these ways reduces risk while improving returns, the fund manager said. There are several considerations when looking at corporate bonds, Miller said, including the issuing company's debt load, cash flow, and industry. After explaining his process for selecting corporate bonds, Miller mentioned a few companies with attractive debt.
Persons: David Miller didn't, Miller, Morningstar —, hasn't, he's, haven't, you'd, that's, , Miller doesn't Organizations: Systematic Alpha Fund, Business, Retail, Catalyst Funds, BNP, Constellation Brands, Modelo, McDonald's, HCA Healthcare Locations: Europe, Japan, Corona
Overall, actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds fell short of passive funds, with 47% of active strategies surviving and beating their index-following peers, according to Morningstar. However, actively managed funds outperformed in the bond category. About 53% of active bond managers survived and beat the passive average in 2023, up from 30% in 2022, the research firm said in a recent report . Intermediate core bond funds largely invest in investment-grade debt, spanning from government issues to corporates. Core bond funds have also held up in recessions, thanks to their diversification across fixed income and duration.
Persons: Morningstar, Paul Olmsted, Olmsted, Olmstead, It's Organizations: Morningstar, Vanguard, Bond Market, Aggregate Bond, Intermediate Bond Fund
However, that won’t happen if you just let it sit in a traditional checking or savings account that yields next to nothing. High-yield online savings accountsThe average annual percentage yield on bank savings accounts was just 0.52% as of March 13, according to Bankrate. As with any bank savings rate, high-yield savings account rates can change overnight, and the bank may not alert you when it lowers it. But don’t confuse money market accounts with money market mutual funds, which invest in short-term, low-risk debt instruments. Unlike money market deposit accounts, money market mutual funds are not insured by the FDIC.
Persons: , Ted Rossman, ” Rossman, Ken Tumin, Schwab, you’d, Tumin, Doug Ornstein, Andy Smith, Ornstein, doesn’t, ” Smith Organizations: New York CNN, Bankrate, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Fidelity, TIAA Wealth Management, FDIC, Securities Investor Protection Corp, Edelman, AAA Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, United States
Japan's central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday for the first time since 2007, ending the world's last negative rates regime on early signs of robust wage gains this year. The BOJ raised its short-term interest rates to around 0% to 0.1% from -0.1%, according to its statement at the end of its two-day March policy meeting. Japan's negative rates regime had been in place since 2016. The BOJ also announced the abolition of its radical yield curve control policy for 10-year Japanese government bonds, which the central bank has employed to target longer-term interest rates by buying and selling bonds as necessary. The Bank of Japan expects higher salaries to lead to a virtuous spiral with domestic demand fueling inflation.
Persons: BOJ, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Japan Inc, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, Japan's
The BOJ will now look to utilize its short-term interest rate as its primary policy tool. It will employ an interest rate of 0.1% to current account balances held by financial institutions at the central bank from March 21, while encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate (another interest rate used as a policy lever by the bank) to remain at around 0 to 0.1% — effectively raising interest rates from -0.1% previously. It would resort to "nimble responses" in the form of increased Japan government bond purchases and fixed-rate purchases of JGBs, among other things, if there is a rapid rise in long-term interest rates. Japanese investors have looked elsewhere for better returns given years of artificially depressed interest rates in their home market. The Fed is due to announce its own interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Persons: Japan Alexander Spatari, Kazuo Ueda, Rob Carnell, BOJ, Ueda, Michael Brown, , JGBs, Vishnu Varathan, Hayden Briscoe, Briscoe Organizations: Japan's, Japan Inc, Asia, ING, CNBC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, Bank of America, Barclays, U.S . Federal, UBS Asset Management Locations: Dotonbori, Japan, Japan's, U.S, Mizuho's, Asia
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
In contrast, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a country's authority on money — the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — to reach a desired economic outcome. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented independently, even as one impacts the other. Expansionary fiscal policy combined with contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary fiscal policy combined with expansionary monetary policy. Now consider a situation in which the Fed is easing its monetary policy while Washington raises taxes, thus reducing after-tax income.
Persons: it's, we've, Apple, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Federal, White House, nab, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Washington
WBD generated $6.2 billion of free cash flow through 2023 and likely shelled out around $1.4 billion of that for NBA games. Analysts estimate that figure would be closer to $2 billion if WBD re-ups its NBA package. WBD wants a big NBA deal, despite Wall Street's wishesSixteen months ago, Zaslav said WBD didn't "have to have" the NBA. NBA ratings have been lackluster lately, with national TV games averaging 1.6 million viewers in the last two seasons. Zaslav's latest public remarks on the NBA negotiations reflect that.
Persons: , Shaquille O'Neal, Charles Barkley, Tim Nollen, Max, Jason Bazinet, WBD, David Zaslav, it's, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Wall, Zaslav, John Hodulik, Chuck, Ernie Johnson Organizations: Service, Basketball Hall of Famers, NBA, TNT, ESPN, Warner Bros, Business, Media, Amazon, NBC, Comcast, Apple, Netflix, WWE, Macquarie, Disney, Fox, Cable, Citigroup, Warners, of America, Street, Zaz, UBS Locations: Shaq
New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
That's one of 10 investing predictions for the next 10 years by the Trivariate Research market strategist. "We have always said 'we prefer a basket of high-quality US growth equities'" when asked about crypto, Parker said in a note over the weekend. "Missing the appreciation of the asset class is not good, but participating in US growth equities has been more than adequate." "Because it is just a proxy for risk taking, investors can mirror the exposure of a basket of crypto through low quality hyper growth stocks," he added. "This sector checks all the boxes … We think there will be continued consolidation, so owning oil-sensitive energy stocks that are mid-cap likely will prove prudent," he said.
Persons: Adam Parker, That's, Bitcoin, Parker Organizations: Trivariate Research, Metrics, Own U.S, Mining, BHP Group, Microsoft, BHP, Vale, Southern Copper, Marathon Petroleum, Treasury, U.S . Treasury Locations: CRE, New York, San Francisco, Chicago, decarbonization, Freeport, McMoRan, Australia, Rio Tinto, Greece, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal
An efficient portfolio typically focuses on both income and price returns, said certified financial planner David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, the asset management arm of insurer Prudential Financial. "It really depends on that retirees' perception of how they're going to access their savings to fund their retirement spending," Blanchett said. Higher yields are doing the heavy lifting Generally, the rule of thumb is to withdraw about 4% of your portfolio a year during retirement. His firm uses the Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) fund and BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities (BSIIX) fund. "If you have a diversified portfolio, in theory, you can actually get higher income over time as the companies that you own pay out higher dividends," he said.
Persons: David Blanchett, who's, Blanchett, Barry Glassman, Glassman, Brandon Goldstein, " Goldstein Organizations: Prudential Financial, Treasury, Wealth Services, CNBC, Dodge, Cox, Prudential Locations: PGIM, North Bethesda , Maryland, BlackRock
"Investors have registered $195mn of outflows from HY muni ETFs over the past year while piling $3,130mn into long duration US Treasury bond funds. … In our view, Treasury bond ETFs have too much inflation risk and will continue to underperform Prudent Yield credit assets. Municipal bonds are debt issued by state and local governments whose interest payments can be tax-free for investors. But municipal bonds look relatively safe within that group, according to Bank of America. Bank of America's top-rated municipal bond ETFs include the SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (HYMB) and the VanEck High Yield Muni ETF (HYD) .
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, munis, HYMB Organizations: Bank of America, HY muni, , Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, ETF, Muni Locations: HY
Read previewThe S&P 500's 22% tear over the last few months may just be getting started, according to Sevens Report Research, a market research firm with clients that include top Wall Street banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and more. On the valuations front, the S&P 500's multiple would only have to rise fairly slightly to lift the index to 6,000. "The S&P 500 is already trading with an elevated forward P/E multiple of over 20X expected 2024 EPS," he said. "If sentiment gets frothy, however, and stocks trade with a multiple pushing 22X, which is far from unheard of as the forward multiple of the S&P 500 hit 21.4 on 1/2/2022, then the S&P 500 could surpass 6,000 in H2'24." Essaye also said small-cap stocks cyclical sectors like big banks, and materials and transportation firms would do well in a soft-landing scenario.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Tyler Richey, Richey, aren't, Louis Fed, Tom Essaye, Essaye, it's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, UBS, Business, Investor, CNN, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Amazon Locations: H2'24
Insurance companies represent a big opportunity for private equity firms, who invest with the accumulated premiums paid by millions of everyday Americans. It's not just insurance clients that benefit from AI to bring more transparency to the cloudy private credit market. With private credit, insurance firms can invest in a more diversified set of assets with greater yield (and, albeit risk) than public credit markets, like vanilla corporate bonds. And because insurance companies often have long-term horizons with their financial obligations to policyholders, they can invest in less-liquid asset classes, like private credit. But to win more insurance clients, Blackstone must compete with the likes of Apollo Global Management, Carlyle, and KKR, which have also been keen on insurance.
Persons: Blackstone, John Stecher, it's, Stecher, Gilles Dellaert, Carlyle, that's, Jon Gray, Gray Organizations: Blackstone, , Business, Insurance, Blackstone Insurance, Apollo Global Management, KKR Locations: BXCI
Investors looking for income should be well-rewarded this year, once again, buying high-yield bonds, according to State Street. He's predicting high-yield bonds will again be one of the top-performing fixed-income sectors in 2024. High-yield bonds currently have spreads of 3.43 percentage points relative to Treasurys, according to the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread . Of course, investors should understand that high-yield bonds carry more risk than investment-grade debt. "They should be balancing the quality characteristics of high-yield bonds relative to the yield that those bonds are providing," he said.
Persons: Michael Arone, Arone Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal, ICE, CNBC Locations: United States
The inflows this year come at a time when, historically, money funds see seasonal outflows. Ho calculates about $5.5 trillion of the assets sitting in money market funds are core liquidity for companies and cash savings for retail investors. In fact, the most recent push into money market funds is coming from institutional investors, according to the ICI. Assets of institutional money market funds increased by $33.06 billion to $3.65 trillion, while retail money market funds rose by $8.62 billion to $2.35 trillion, the organization found. That's because yields on money market funds lag behind Fed moves.
Persons: Teresa Ho, Ho, Powell, Shelly Antoniewicz, Jerome Powell, AllianceBernstein, Monika Carlson, Carlson, Amy Arnott, Arnott, Rob Williams, Charles Schwab Organizations: JPMorgan, Investment Company Institute, Federal Reserve, CNBC, ICI, Fed, Treasury, Morningstar, Charles, Charles Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: Treasurys
Tax filing season officially started on Monday, and investors could pay the price following last year's stock market bonanza. Meanwhile, investors collected yields exceeding 5% in money market funds, certificates of deposit and high yield savings accounts. In New York, the top income tax rate is 10.9%, and it's 13.3% in California. Vanguard's New York Municipal Money Market Fund (VYFXX) has a 7-day SEC yield of 4.25% and an expense ratio of 0.16%. Fidelity offers the California Municipal Money Market Fund (FSPXX) , which has a 7-day yield of 3.54% and an expense ratio of 0.3%.
Persons: Tim Steffen, Brenna McLoughlin, you've, McLoughlin, Vanguard's, Sam Nofzinger, Steffen, it's, There's Organizations: Baird, Wealthstream Advisors, York Municipal Money Market Fund, SEC, Fidelity, Money Market Fund, Public Locations: Milwaukee, New York, California, York,
High-yield online savings accountsThe average annual percentage yield on bank savings accounts was just 0.57% on January 30, according to a Bankrate survey. But many online FDIC-insured banks are still offering 5% or more on their high-yield savings accounts. As with any bank savings rate, high-yield savings account rates can change overnight, and the bank may not alert you when it lowers it. But don’t confuse money market accounts with money market mutual funds, which invest in short-term, low-risk debt instruments. Unlike money market deposit accounts, money market mutual funds are not insured by the FDIC.
Persons: Doug Ornstein, Schwab, , , Greg McBride, Ken Tumin, you’d, Tumin, Wells Fargo, Andy Smith, Ornstein, doesn’t, ” Smith Organizations: New York CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, TIAA Wealth Management, FDIC, Securities Investor Protection Corp, Fidelity, DepositAccounts.com, Treasury, Edelman, AAA Locations: New York, United States
"Bond fund / ETF flows tend to follow returns with about a month lag. The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is the top bond ETF by inflows with more than $4.5 billion month to date, according to FactSet. Another notable fund is the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) , which has brought in more than $2 billion. "People have definitely been allocating to investment grade. How fixed income investors react to expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is a key question in 2024.
Persons: Yuri Seliger, Bond, Seliger, Stephen Laipply, Laipply Organizations: Bank of, Corporate, Federal Locations: LQD, BlackRock
BondBloxx is set to debut three new funds on Thursday: BBB Rated 1-5 Year Corporate Bond ETF (BBBS) , BBB Rated 5-10 Year Corporate Bond ETF (BBBI) and BBB Rated 10+ Year Corporate Bond ETF (BBBL). Bonds rated BBB or an equivalent are considered the last rung of investment grade credit. Tony Kelly, co-founder of BondBloxx, said BBB credit is the "not-so-secret sauce" for active managers trying to beat credit benchmarks. Of course, economic downturns are always a concern for corporate credit. This is not unusual for corporate bond funds since banks and other financial institutions issue a lot of short-term debt, but it does suggest that the funds could have some concentration risk.
Persons: Bonds, Rick Rieder, Tony Kelly, BondBloxx, Kelly, Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin Organizations: BBB, Corporate, New York Life Investments, Reserve Locations: BondBloxx
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