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The latest macro data is sending mixed signals, reflecting both a "no landing" and a "soft landing," Morgan Stanley said. The bank recommends defensive sectors, including consumer staples, to navigate volatility. AdvertisementInvestors should ramp up investments in defensive stock sectors like consumer staples and utilities as the latest data sends mixed signals about the economy, Morgan Stanley says. Based on this rationale, Wilson suggests opting for robust cyclical names in a no-landing scenario and premium growth stocks in a soft landing. It also provides some more defensiveness to portfolios as a hedge amid uncertain/unpredictable macro data," they said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Michael Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm, Staples, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Conference, Reserve Locations: today's
Sell in May and go away? Think again
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —It’s “sell in May and go away” season. All three major indexes broke five-month winning streaks as hotter-than-expected inflation data stoked fears that interest rate cuts will come later than forecast. The central bank kept interest rates on hold at a 23-year high at its policy meeting. Persistent inflation has kept long-anticipated rate cuts on the backburner. Tesla “has let our entire charging org go,” William Navarro Jameson, strategic charging programs lead at Tesla, wrote on X.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, , Alex McGrath, Larry Tentarelli, Bryan Mena, it’s, Read, Tesla, Tesla “, ” William Navarro Jameson, Lane Chaplin, Hanna Ziady, Peter Valdes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, The, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Wednesday, Traders, Blue, Carson Group, Research, Federal Reserve, Fed, Motors, Ford, Tesla Locations: New York
"Stocks with stable growth typically perform best alongside decelerating economic growth." In this economic climate, Goldman is advising clients to buy stocks offering stable growth. The Wall Street bank screened Russell 1000 stocks for those with the most stable growth in earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization on a quarterly basis over the past 10 years. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Goldman said. Industrial companies such as Waste Management and Fastenal also made the list, as well as consumer discretionary names Domino's Pizza and AutoZone .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Fastenal Organizations: Federal Reserve, Russell, PepsiCo, Colgate, Palmolive, Waste Management
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with the press after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which was pretty fraught. Data centers If there is the whiff of a data center or anything in one, the stock goes higher. It's why Meta stock is a buy a tad lower as stocks tend to revisit those kinds of declines. I worry about Club stock Stanley Black & Decker for this reason, but the dividend will keep it propped up for now. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Powell isn't, Voltaire, Vertiv, Eaton, Meta, It's, jetsam, Darius Adamczyk, Vimal, Stanley Black, Decker, Azek, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo, Chipotle, that's, Johnson, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Scott Mlyn Organizations: Federal, Market, Broadcom, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Travel American Express, Raytheon, GE Aerospace, Royal, AAR, Honeywell, Southwest Airlines, Housing, Stanley, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Colgate, Merck, Bristol, Myers, PepsiCo, Energy, Coterra Energy, Diamondback, drillers, CNBC Locations: California, Royal Caribbean, Delta, Devon
As the equity market's profitability nears its all-time highs, Goldman Sachs recently shared some stocks that could see big growth over the next 12 months. In 2024, Kostin expects margin expansion will continue to support ROE growth. In the same report, Goldman Sachs shared its rebalanced ROE growth basket of stocks, which contains 50 names selected for their expected profit growth over the next 12 months. Rising growth fears, solar compensation cutbacks and rising interest rates sank solar stocks last year, but they've since made a comeback. Consensus estimates for the financials sector reveal that most analysts expect ROE growth to remain flat in the same time period.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, ROE, Kostin, Estée Lauder, Electric's, Goldman, Wells, Janney, Blackstone Organizations: Kostin, Info Tech, Deutsche Bank, GE Aerospace, Communications, Mobile Locations: Wells Fargo, China
The S&P 500 is in its most perilous position since late last summer, cautioned David Keller, the chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. After an uptick in volatility in March 2023, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted rally before peaking on the final day of July. Related storiesIn the meantime, investors should keep a close eye on two key technical support levels for the S&P 500, Keller said: 5,050 and 4,820. Utilities are one of only two parts of the market that's up in the last month, due to its risk-off nature. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is another compelling way to ride that rally, Keller said.
Persons: , David Keller, I'm, Keller, Stocks, StockCharts.com, they're, Keller isn't, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Utilities, StockCharts.com, VanEck Oil Services, P Oil & Gas Exploration, Production, Miners Locations: East, Israel, Freeport
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Entering this week, Super Micro was up more than 200% year to date. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, We're, That's, Estee Lauder, Wells Fargo, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Tech, Nasdaq, Micro Computer, Coterra Energy, Club, Constellation Brands, Abbott Laboratories, Dow, Microsoft, Ford Motor, Honeywell International, Verizon, Cadence, GE Aerospace, PepsiCo, RTX, Halliburton, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Wells Fargo, SMCI
Those are key items to watch out for Friday morning when P & G reports its fiscal 2024 third-quarter earnings. Shares of P & G hit a multiyear high of $163 on March 28 — less than $2 per share below all-time highs reached in late April 2022. Traditionally for Procter, pricing has contributed low single digits to its earnings growth. In P & G's fiscal second quarter , pricing contributed 4% to sales growth, but volumes were down on a companywide basis. He expects to see a healthy organic growth rate consistent with the 4% organic growth reported in the second quarter.
Persons: Jeff Marks, Jim Cramer, Nik Modi, Modi, Procter, Jon Anderson, William Blair, Anderson, Ulta, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Procter, Gamble, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, RBC Capital Markets, Anderson, China, National Exhibition, Convention Center, VCG, Getty Locations: U.S, North America, Shanghai, China
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning in the bank's earnings report Friday. With so much at stake, here's an earnings season cheat sheet of when some of the biggest companies are reporting and the storylines to follow. Themes to watch: AI could reduce the number of junior bank employees thanks to the tech automating their grunt work . Themes to watch: Netflix was dubbed the king of streaming earlier this year after a big earnings report. The bank's earnings report beat analysts' expectations, but advisory revenues were down 21% year-over-year.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, iStock, Rebecca Zisser, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michael M, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Will Meta, Bob Iger's, Brooks Kraft, Jeremy Barnum, it's, Jeff Currie, Justin Sullivan, Tesla, Elon Musk, Musk, Marco Bottigelli, Yevgen Romanenko, Tyler Le, Michelle Grisé, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, JPMorgan . Tech, JPMorgan, New York Stock Exchange, Finance Key Companies, Bank of America, Companies, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Retail, Walmart, Costco, Netflix, Disney, Paramount Global, Boeing, Brooks Kraft LLC, Getty, BI, Healthcare, RAND, Boston Marathon Locations: Israel, Russia, United States, New York, London, Chicago
From late October through March, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted 27.6% rally based on better-than-expected earnings and economic data. And while it's still well below the dot-com bubble levels, it's still too close for comfort for many investors. Related story"Those higher rates are starting to push back on elevated valuations for stocks right now," Saglimbene said. "They're all much cheaper on an earnings basis than those Magnificent 7 companies," Saglimbene said. "So I think if we avoid a recession this year, the narrative will change to a broadening of companies and sectors that can participate in earnings growth this year."
Persons: aren't, Anthony Saglimbene, Rick Pitcairn, Pitcairn, it's, we've, Raheel Siddiqui, Neuberger Berman, Siddiqui, Jon Wolfenbarger, Albert Edwards, Bill Smead, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Ragan, Saglimbene, Indrani, she's, De, Davidson, Siddiqui's Organizations: Ameriprise, Business, DA, FTSE Russell, Investors Locations: Ameriprise
Morningstar Wealth's Marta Norton: Tech looks overvalued to us
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorningstar Wealth's Marta Norton: Tech looks overvalued to usMarta Norton, Morningstar Wealth CIO for the Americas, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss whether the Middle East conflict could impact the market, why she sees lots of opportunities in consumer staples, and more.
Persons: Morningstar, Marta Norton Organizations: Morningstar
IEI has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.26% and carries an expense ratio of 0.15%. BINC, which is actively managed, has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.6% and a net expense ratio of 0.4%. Investors can use ETFs to tackle that space: Vanguard's Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.33%. There's also the iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (IGIB) , offering a 30-day SEC yield of 5.4%. Hunting dividend payers Higher rates have overshadowed opportunities among dividend-paying stocks, which look less attractive to income investors who can find risk-free yields easily.
Persons: it's, Michael Carbone, Carbone, Gargi Chaudhuri, Collin Martin, There's, Michael Clarfeld Organizations: Dow Jones, Traders, Federal, Treasury Bond ETF, SEC, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Corporate Locations: Chelmsford , Massachusetts, BlackRock, ClearBridge
"The big rock in the way here is the cost of shelter," Zandi said. In fact, underlying inflation after stripping out shelter costs is already back to target, Zandi said. watch nowThe increase is largely attributable to higher oil prices. "For most Americans, the thing that bothers them the most about inflation is high food prices." Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — like entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation.
Persons: Eric Thayer, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's, Hamrick, They're, Sarah House Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Energy Information Administration, BLS, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
Evercore ISISurprisingly strong economic growth will fuel a 5.5% year-over-year jump in corporate earnings this quarter, according to Evercore. That would be well above analysts' consensus of about 3% but below the nearly 8% growth rate in Q4. 8 stocks set to outperform soonThough US stocks broadly may be in for a rough ride, stock-pickers shouldn't get too worried. To help with the search, Emanuel and company highlighted eight stocks set to outperform during the Q1 earnings season. Below are the eight companies listed in alphabetical order along with their ticker, market capitalization, sector, expected earnings release date, year-to-date earnings revision, and expected earnings growth rate relative to their sector peers.
Persons: , Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, recalculate, Evercore, Emanuel's, didn't, shouldn't, Zscaler Organizations: Service, ISI, Business, PPG Industries
Conversely, Kilburg is adding to positions that have lagged the market, such as industrial and health-care stocks. "Those are three names that I believe are blue chip, essential names to the U.S. economy," he said. UnitedHealth and other health-care stocks are also trading at a discount, Kilburg said, citing Johnson & Johnson as a potential winner. Buy cyclical names Bailey, formerly a health-care analyst at Legg Mason and Stifel Financial before joining FBB in 2015, expects a hotter-than-forecast inflation report on Wednesday would take stocks lower. The Johns Hopkins MBA also sees the larger, diversified banks as attractive in a climate of higher inflation and interest rates.
Persons: Jeff Kilburg, Kilburg, Mike Bailey, Bailey, payrolls, Lockheed Martin, Johnson, Legg Mason, Berkshire Hathaway, Johns Hopkins, UnitedHealth Organizations: KKM, FBB Capital Partners, Meta, Nvidia, Lockheed, Stifel, FBB, Treasury, Berkshire, Union Pacific, Old Dominion Freight Locations: U.S, McLennan, Progressive, Chevron
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Given the company's track record, it is not surprising to us that its stock isn't working after these much-ballyhooed claims. Upgrades/downgrades: Bank earnings season kicks off this Friday with Wells Fargo , JPMorgan , and Citigroup scheduled to report. Meanwhile, Cramer is critical of an upgrade of Freeport-McMoRan after the stock has gained 35% since the beginning of March. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Gaudi, Wells, Wells Fargo, Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Patrick Gelsinger, Brendan Smialowski Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, Intel, JPMorgan, Citigroup, KBW, Citi, GE, GE Healthcare, Core CPI, Jim Cramer's Charitable, AFP, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, Freeport, McMoRan, Chandler , Arizona
Constellation Brands stock is looking like it could be ready to break out, with its strong beer business well-positioned for market share gains in the upcoming fiscal year. Morgan Stanley anticipates Constellation to continue gaining market share at the expense of Bud Light during this period. Since Constellation tends to boast industry-leading results in its beer business, we're confident it will deliver strong numbers again next week. Over the past few years, Constellation has been trying to boost sales in its wine and spirits business — shifting from lower-priced brands to more premium names. While wine and spirits make up a small part of Constellation's overall business, Jim has said it must go.
Persons: It's, Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, Jeff Marks, Jim, Bud Light, Marks, Piper Sandler, Newlands, Kim Crawford, Eli Lilly, Elliott, Jim Cramer's, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Constellation Brands, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Modelo, Nielsen, Cinco de Mayo, Bud Light, Constellation, Piper, Elliott Investment Management, CNBC Locations: Corona, Pacifico, U.S, GLP, Modelo, San Rafael , California
Read previewAlthough US stocks have been all the rage this year, a top-performing fund manager remains convinced that the most compelling investing opportunities are in international equities. Its 80% gain over the past five years is more than double that of the STOXX Europe 600 and is six-fold above the 13% return of Vanguard's Total International Stock Index ETF (VXUS). The Brandes International Equity Fund has been in the top 10% of its category in the last 10 years, according to Morningstar, which includes a top-1% finish in 2023. AdvertisementOnce the fund manager finds stocks that fit this bill, he thinks more like a business owner than a stock trader. Of all the opportunities in international markets, Germain is especially drawn to four stocks across various countries and industries.
Persons: , Jeff Germain, Germain, David Kelly, Brandes, He's, " Germain, Royce Organizations: Service, Vanguard's, Stock, Business, Brandes Investment Partners, Brandes International Equity Fund, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Heidelberg, Embraer, Royce, Heineken Locations: German, Brazil, Britain
As the market begins a new quarter, Bank of America refreshed its list of top picks for the coming months. Here are some of the firm's top picks for the second quarter: Big Tech underperformer Alphabet is one of Bank of America's top 10 picks for the new quarter. The stock added just 8% in the first quarter of 2024 as a series of AI-related blunders bruised investor sentiment. SPOT YTD mountain Spotify shares in 2024 One of the financial stocks featured in Bank of America's top picks list was Citigroup . "A positive inflection in volumes should support low valuation and potentially drive rotation from other consumer staples sub-sectors (Beverages/Household Personal Care) as investors chase underperforming food names," wrote analyst Bryan Spillane.
Persons: Justin Post, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft Heinz, Bryan Spillane Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Bank of America's, Microsoft, Google, 2Q, Spotify, Citigroup, Assistance Locations: Thursday's
Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says we're still in the early stages of an economic recovery from 2022's earnings recession and the bear market that followed. Slimmon oversees the US and global long-equity strategies, portfolios that aren't biased toward any one area such as growth or value stocks. And in this environment, value stocks are expected to outperform dramatically, he said. Below is a Morgan Stanley equities chart demonstrating where value stocks trade relative to their fair value. They haven't fully sold off and remain expensive relative to the market, he noted.
Persons: Andrew Slimmon, we're, Slimmon, Morgan, it's Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Business, US, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Investment
This in effect creates an 'implied' 2H of 2024 guidance that is perhaps excessively optimistic," CEO Adam Parker wrote Sunday. Parker's warning comes after S & P 500 reported earnings growth of 4.2% for the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis, per FactSet. He also screened for stocks in which there's a big difference between earnings expectations for the first and the second half of the year. Parker surmises that these stocks may disappoint on these aggressive earnings turnarounds. Consensus estimates from analysts surveyed by FactSet suggest the stock, which is down nearly 5% this year, could gain 13.2% from Monday's close.
Persons: Adam Parker, Parker, AbbVie, FactSet, Wells Fargo, Estee Lauder Organizations: Research, Abbott Laboratories, Humana, Pharmaceutical, FactSet, Mondelez International, Procter, Gamble Locations: , China, Monday's
Sam Altman's act may be wearing thin
  + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking into how some in Silicon Valley are starting to sour on OpenAI's Sam Altman . AdvertisementFrom hardball tactics when raising funds to relentless self-mythologizing about his role in the future of tech, Altman's act is wearing thin on some . Even VCs uninterested in AI deals are quickly becoming servants to Altman's AI empire. Big market, fall hard.
Persons: , Baltimore's Francis Scott Key, Sam Altman, Alastair Grant, Rebecca Zisser, Darius Rafieyan, Altman, Elon Musk, à, Steve Jobs, VCs, Samantha Stokes, Eric Baradat, Torsten Slok, David Rosenberg, BofA, Drew Watson, Birkin, Abanti Chowdhury, Elon, Don Lemon, that's, Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Google's, Meta, Dave Calhoun, Aaron Schwartz, Adam Neumann, Neumann, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Business, Service, Baltimore Fire Department, Tech, Apple Vision, NFL, ChatGPT, Kruze Consulting, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Abanti, Getty Images, Street Locations: Silicon Valley, Plenty, Big, Orlando, New York, London, Chicago
"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan
The fund manager hasn't departed from the offense-defense strategy he outlined last summer, and he's still confused as to why more of his counterparts haven't followed suit. Related storiesThe top fund manager added: "So that leads people to this conclusion that maybe I should just index and put it all in the S&P 500. Diversifying in these ways reduces risk while improving returns, the fund manager said. There are several considerations when looking at corporate bonds, Miller said, including the issuing company's debt load, cash flow, and industry. After explaining his process for selecting corporate bonds, Miller mentioned a few companies with attractive debt.
Persons: David Miller didn't, Miller, Morningstar —, hasn't, he's, haven't, you'd, that's, , Miller doesn't Organizations: Systematic Alpha Fund, Business, Retail, Catalyst Funds, BNP, Constellation Brands, Modelo, McDonald's, HCA Healthcare Locations: Europe, Japan, Corona
April 15 is the deadline for taxpayers to file their income tax returns and pay sums owed for 2023. MLPs themselves aren't subject to federal income taxes, but limited partners owe taxes on the income distributed. MLPX has a total return of 7.6% in 2024, and MLPA's year-to-date total return is 9.3%, according to Morningstar. In 2024, IYK has a total return of nearly 4.7%, while XLU's total return is about 0.7%, according to Morningstar. MFM's total return this year is 3.66%, and NZF has a total return of 3.4% in 2024, according to Morningstar.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, , MLPX, IYK, Morningstar, XLU, NZF Organizations: Bank of America, MLP & Energy Infrastructure, X MLP, Morningstar, Consumer Staples, Income Trust, Income Locations: MLPs, Indonesia, America, Nuveen
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