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Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the increase in foreign-born workers is "taking pressure off the economy." The growth in foreign-born workers comes amid a contentious immigration policy debate in the U.S. Immigrants' share of the labor force has increased since 1996, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting such data. A growing population and labor force are key components of a healthy economy and the nation's ability to pay its bills, economists said. In other words, the economy is both absorbing immigrants and generating job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, the institute said.
Persons: Mark Zandi, it's, Alejandro Mayorkas, John Moore, Muzaffar Chishti, Jack Malde, Qian Weizhong, Steven Camarota, Camarota, Paul Ratje, Eric Thayer, Malde, EPI, Zandi, There's, Luis Alvarez Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, Republicans, U.S, Department of Homeland, U.S . Border Patrol, U.S . Department of Homeland, Getty, Migration Policy Institute, CNBC, Foreign, U.S . Immigrants, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center, Social Security, Congressional, Office, Center, Immigration, . Border Patrol, Getty Images, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Center for Immigration Studies, Afp, Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, Digitalvision Locations: U.S, Mexico, Eagle Pass , Texas, San Diego , California, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Paso, Ciudad Juarez , Mexico, Los Angeles
The U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic has been stronger and more durable than many experts had expected, and a rebound in immigration is a big reason. A resumption in visa processing in 2021 and 2022 jump-started employment, allowing foreign-born workers to fill some holes in the labor force that persisted across industries and locations after the pandemic shutdowns. Immigrants also address a longer-term need: replenishing the work force, a key to meeting labor demands as birthrates decline and older people retire. International instability, economic crises, war and natural disasters have brought a new surge of arrivals who could help close the still-elevated gap between labor demand and job candidates. But that potential economic dividend must contend with the incendiary politics, logistical hurdles and administrative backlogs that the surge has created.
Organizations: Office
House Republican hardliners' efforts to stonewall a budget deal ahead of a looming government shutdown could risk triggering automatic spending cuts later this spring that may put pressure on the U.S. economy's already fraught recovery. A full-year budget deal to avert the FRA cuts appears increasingly unlikely, amid staunch opposition from the House's ultraconservative wing. Freedom Caucus derailmentMembers of the House Freedom Caucus, a coalition of hardline conservatives, have been working to derail a permanent budget. Instead, they want to extend the current temporary spending resolution through the rest of the fiscal year, ensuring the FRA's spending cuts are triggered on April 30. But if the FRA's automatic spending cuts take effect, they could rattle the broader economy's teetering recovery.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Jake Sullivan, economy's, Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Hakeem Jeffries, Jan, Johnson, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, McConnell, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, Sen, Patty Murray Organizations: National Security, U.S, Capitol, House Republican, Congressional Research Service, Caucus, Democrat, Freedom Caucus, Congressional Locations: Washington ,, stonewall, D
If the US wants a soft landing, it needs to enact fiscal measures like student-loan forgiveness and tax cuts, Piper Sandler's chief global economist said. "There could easily be an additional 1.5% boost to GDP from fiscal stimulus this year," she wrote. AdvertisementIf the US economy wants to stick a soft landing, the government is going to have to loosen the purse strings. There are three times in history that the US has been able to nail a soft landing: 1967, 1985, and 1995. "Easing amid material fiscal stimulus risks repeating the Martin Fed's mistake...which set the stage for the 1970s' disastrous inflation cycle," she wrote.
Persons: Piper, Nancy Lazar, , Piper Sandler's, Lazar, doling, Smith, Bill Martin, Martin Organizations: Drivers, Service, Congressional, Bloomberg, Fed, US
Read previewThe British navy suffered an embarrassing flop after a failed test launch of a Trident nuclear missile was revealed. AdvertisementIt's the second time in a row that a test launch of a Trident missile by the Royal Navy has had an unhappy ending. These failures have a high price tag, given that each missile costs tens of millions of dollars. AdvertisementThat involves manufacturing costs, missile extension programs, replacement warheads, in-service costs, and personnel salaries. Building the Trident system in the 1980s cost about £21 billion ($26.5 billion) in today's money, according to the Ministry of Defense.
Persons: , Grant Shapps, Lockheed Martin Organizations: Service, British, Trident, Sun, Business, Defense, Royal Navy, US Navy, US, Lockheed, Vanguard, Ministry of Defense, Nuclear Disarmament, Department of Defense, Congressional, Office Locations: Florida, Africa, Ohio, Red Sea, Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan Strait
China, Japan, and Italy are all battling dwindling birth rates — and their struggles are a reminder of an issue that could eventually become a problem for the US. Elon Musk, with his three-year-old son X AE A-Xii at the 2024 Super Bowl, thinks low birth rates pose a risk to civilization. Meanwhile, economists have warned for years about plunging birth rates in Italy . AdvertisementChina has also struggled to raise its birth rate. Congress has also played up the potential for immigration to boost the economy over the longer term.
Persons: , millennials, Zeds, Zers, you’ve, Marc Ostwald, That’s, Elon Musk, Musk, X, Rob Carr, Italy party’s, , ADM’s, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, , ” Ostwald, Martin Heinrich Organizations: Service, United Nations, Business, ADM Investor Services International, Congressional, Republican, Democrat, Economic Committee Locations: China, Japan, Italy, India, “ Japan
AdvertisementThat means the strong job numbers of recent months have largely been due to immigrants , specifically foreign-born workers, entering the workforce in large numbers. “Foreign-born labor force participants have accounted for all of the job growth over the last year,” Bill Adams, an economist at Comerica Bank, told The New York Times. AdvertisementAdditionally, he said these job gains haven’t come at the expense of US-born workers either. As of 2022, foreign-born workers were more likely than US-born workers to be in service, natural resources, construction, and maintenance jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of January, 65.7% of foreign-born workers were working or looking for work, compared to 61.4% of US-born workers.
Persons: , ” Bill Adams, Paul Krugman, “ They're, , Louis, Miguel Faria, Castro, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Business, Comerica Bank, New York Times, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Immigrants, Congressional, Office, St, Louis Fed
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies during the House Budget Committee hearing titled "The Congressional Budget Office's Budget and Economic Outlook," in Longworth Building on Wednesday, February 14, 2024. The director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned House lawmakers Wednesday that the ballooning national debt and the cost of paying interest on it could become an existential threat to the U.S. economy. "Rising interest costs will crowd out other possible uses of government resources, and then also pose a risk to our economic stability" in the coming decade, CBO director Phillip Swagel told the budget committee at a hearing on Capitol Hill. Swagel's testimony centered around CBO's semi-annual report on the federal budget and the economy, released Feb. 7. The CBO report projected that the yearly U.S. budget deficit would grow by an estimated $1 trillion over the next 10 years.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Swagel, Kevin McCarthy, Dan Kildee, Donald Trump's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Economic, Capitol, CBO, Republicans, GOP, Democrat, Congress Locations: Longworth, U.S, CBO's, Michigan
Grading Biden’s Signature Law
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
In the past 24 hours, President Biden has taken questions (and heat) on his age, memory and mental fitness. Big questions still hang over the law, which many Americans appear not to know exists. And can the law survive a potential Trump second term? One reason: There’s huge demand for the credits and subsidies created by the law for building solar, hydrogen and nuclear energy projects, as well as discounts for buying electric vehicles. (An analysis by Goldman Sachs last fall showed that the law led to about $282 billion in investment and roughly 175,000 jobs in its first year.)
Persons: Biden, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Trump, Congressional, Office
The US economy will grow by an extra $7 trillion over the next decade, according to estimates from the CBO. "The labor force in 2033 is larger by 5.2 million people, mostly because of higher net immigration. AdvertisementThe CBO also found that net immigration has risen since 2022, and it expects it to remain elevated through 2026. The US labor force is expected to surge over the next decade thanks to strong net immigration trends. Another knock-on effect of America's net immigration trends is its impact on the housing market, since it should result in continued demand for new homes.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Swagel, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: CBO, Congressional, Office, Immigrants Locations: Japan, America
CNN —The federal budget deficit will balloon from $1.6 trillion this fiscal year to $2.6 trillion in fiscal year 2034, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office outlook released Wednesday. A major reason for the widening gap between revenue and spending: a spike in net interest payments on the federal debt due to higher interest rates. The nation’s debt held by the public is expected to rise to a record 116% of the economy by 2034. CBO’s deficit projection will likely add pressure to congressional lawmakers who have yet to agree on funding for federal agencies for fiscal year 2024. Budget experts called on Congress to take action to address the nation’s worsening fiscal situation.
Persons: MacGuineas, they’ve, Mike Johnson, ” Michael Peterson, Peter G Organizations: CNN, Congressional, Social Security, Medicare, CBO, GOP, Capitol, Federal, House Republicans, Peterson Foundation
The United States is on a pace to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade as the mounting costs of an aging population and higher interest expenses continue to weigh on the nation’s fiscal outlook, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday. Annual deficits over the next decade are 7 percent smaller than the $20.3 trillion the budget office forecast last year. A deal that President Biden and congressional Republicans struck last year to limit discretionary spending for two years reduces deficits over the decade. So does a surge of 5.2 million new workers into the labor force, most of them immigrants. But those deficit declines are partly offset by an increase in the estimated budget costs from Mr. Biden’s clean-energy agenda, an aging U.S. population and higher interest rates on the national debt.
Persons: Biden, Biden’s Organizations: Republicans Locations: States, U.S
WASHINGTON — The U.S. budget deficit will grow by an estimated $1 trillion over the next 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected in a new report Wednesday. "I came to office determined to ... face the existential threat of climate and still grow, to fundamentally change our economy, and to transition this country to a clean energy future," Biden said last October. Taken together, CBO estimates that the impact of new emissions standards, clean energy tax credits and falling gas tax revenue as people buy less gas, will add $25 billion to the budget deficit this year. "Those costs reflect new emissions standards, market developments, and actions taken by the administration to implement the tax provisions." The CBO also noted that there are still many unknowns about how green energy will impact the economy and the federal budget longer term.
Persons: WASHINGTON, Joe Biden's, Biden, Philip Swagel, EPA's Organizations: CBO, Environmental Protection Agency Locations: The, U.S
Two major factors are behind the decline in the budget deficit this year, each of them one-off events that reflect the challenge for lawmakers in trying to close the growing gap between tax revenues and spending. Second, tax revenues are expected to increase because of better returns on financial investments and the collection of taxes from last year that the government postponed because of natural disasters. Over the next decade, the cumulative budget deficits will be 7% smaller than the nonpartisan CBO forecast last year. For instance, this time last year, the office projected the unemployment rate would jump to 4.7% in 2023, while the current unemployment rate is 3.7%. The CBO anticipates that the unemployment rate will hit 4.4% at the end of 2024.
Persons: Joe Biden, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Congressional, Congressional Republicans, Social Security, CBO, Republicans
The Congressional Budget Office in 2022 estimated that the tens of billions of new IRS funding provided by the IRA would increase revenues by $180.4 billion from 2022 to 2031. The IRS now says that if IRA funding is restored, renewed and diversified, estimated revenues could reach as much as $851 billion from 2024 to 2034. However, House Republicans built a $1.4 billion reduction to the IRS into the debt ceiling and budget cuts package passed by Congress last summer. IRA funding "is enabling the IRS to reverse this trend,” Leiserson said. The tax gap — which is the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid — has grown to more than $600 billion annually, according to the IRS.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Lael Brainard, Brainard, Greg Leiserson, Leiserson, Organizations: WASHINGTON, IRS, Treasury Department, Democrats, Congressional, Office, Republicans, Congress
That could be a sign that workers feel less confident about the state of the labor market. AdvertisementFriday's blowout jobs report confirmed the labor market is still holding firm, but one often-ignored statistic could signal a looming slowdown. "The second straight 2.2% quits rate — just below the pre-Covid level — is more important, because it clearly signals slower wage gains." "All that air is coming out of the labor market, even though hiring remains strong." "The job market is steadily returning to its pre-pandemic self," Morningstar's Preston Caldwell said in a research note.
Persons: , José Torres, Ian Shepherdson, Philipp Carlsson, Szlezak, Optimists, Morningstar's Preston Caldwell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Macroeconomics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boston Consulting Group, Business, eBay, Los Angeles Times
New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time is coming for interest rate cuts, but asked Americans for a bit more patience in the central bank’s fight against inflation. That means the Fed is due to cut rates in 2024, which officials themselves projected in December. But the central bank’s January policy statement pushed back on expectations of the first rate cut coming at their next meeting in March. Still, financial markets see a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates in March and a 71.3% chance they cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But that hasn’t stopped Congress from pressuring Powell to cut rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, “ We’ve, ” Powell, , Price, Powell, , Scott Pelley, can’t, hasn’t, Democratic Sen, Sherrod Brown, ” Brown, Brown, Elizabeth Warren, we’re Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, CBS, Fed, Federal Reserve, Governors, Democratic, Banking, New York Community Bancorp, New York Community Locations: New York, Street, Ukraine, Asia,
The move gives Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans the chance to show support for Israel even though there is little chance the Senate will go along. The House has already approved a nearly $14.5 billion military aid package in November for Israel that the Senate declined to take up. Johnson said in his letter to colleagues that removing the offsets should allow for swift passage of the Israel aid. “During debate in the House and in numerous subsequent statements, Democrats made clear that their primary objection to the original House bill was with its offsets,” Johnson said. To ensure the support does not compromise U.S. readiness, it includes $4.4 billion to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons provided to Israel.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Johnson, ” Johnson, , Ken Calvert, There's Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Republicans, House Republicans, Internal Revenue Service, Locations: Israel, Ukraine, R
“It’s an ongoing effort,” said White House chief of staff Jeff Zients. “Under his leadership, we’ve attacked inflation from every angle.”The question is whether voters are feeling the improvement and will reward Biden. Or will they penalize him because inflation became a problem on his watch as the U.S. emerged from pandemic shutdowns? Past and current Biden administration officials say the decline in inflation since then was a result of a set of choices. Much of the public saw inflation through the lens of their grocery stores, strip malls and gas stations, but the White House considered it a worldwide issue.
Persons: Joe Biden, he's, Biden, , Jeff Zients, we’ve, Jason Smith of Missouri, Donald Trump, ” Trump, “ We're, Bharat Ramamurti, shutdowns, , Jared Bernstein, White, Ben Harris Organizations: WASHINGTON, White, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Biden, Federal Reserve, House, National Economic Council, Congressional, Medicare, Factories, Shipping, White House Council, Economic Advisers, White House, U.S, Republican, Treasury Department, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Locations: , U.S, Los Angeles, Long Beach , California, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Red
The U.S. builds only a little more than one nuclear submarine a year. Photo: U.S. Navy/Zuma PressWhen the Center for Strategic and International Studies simulated a war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, the wargame ended with Taiwan still free, at grievous cost. The U.S. loses two aircraft carriers and up to 20 destroyers and cruisers; China sees more than 50 major surface warships sunk. As Eric Labs, a navy analyst for the Congressional Budget Office explains, China can replace lost ships far more quickly. In the past two years, its navy has grown by 17 cruisers and destroyers; it would take the U.S. six years to build the same number under current conditions, he said.
Persons: Eric Organizations: U.S . Navy, Zuma, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, Eric Labs, Congressional Locations: U.S, China, Taiwan
And as the mountain of debt keeps piling up, and the government’s budget deficit remains massive, some bond traders are now joining politicians in decrying the government’s ever-growing financial obligation. Those bond traders are seemingly up in arms over the government’s gaping budget deficit — something that occurs when the government’s spending outstrips revenues — which currently stands at roughly $67 billion so far for the current fiscal year. For the full 2023 budget year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit stood at a staggering $1.5 trillion. How do we manage the budget deficit? Our interest rate team is looking at the 10-year (US Treasury) yield to be closer to 4% than 5% next year.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Bell, Joe Quinlan, It’s, it’s, what’s, You’d, Powell, ” Powell, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Treasury Department, Congressional, Office, Federal, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Treasury, Spelman College, US Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Atlanta
REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits that have helped lift government bond yields this year will likely become secondary factors for investors, as their focus shifts to economic fundamentals, Citi analysts said. "Our baseline is that over time investors accept these fiscal risks as a fact of life and that ultimately it is not supply and demand that determine Treasury yields but it's more about the fundamentals of the economy," he said. Moody's, which last week lowered its outlook on U.S. credit, expects the government to continue to run wide fiscal deficits due to increased spending and higher debt interest payments. Some Fed officials have also said rising bond yields, which make access to credit more expensive, could be a substitute for increasing interest rates further. "There is going to be an extraction of higher yields from these investors," cautioned Mathai.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Fitch, Moody's, Nathan Sheets, Ray Dalio, Jabaz Mathai, Mathai, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Citi, Office, Associates, CNBC, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe deficit would still be wide even if rates went down, says CBO Director Phillip SwagelPhillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the deficit, its outlook, and more.
Persons: Phillip Swagel Phillip Swagel, Steve Liesman Organizations: Congressional
“The tax benefits were definitely factored into how Chevron valued Hess,” said Donald Williamson, an accounting professor at American University’s Kogod School of Business. “When you combine the companies, we have the greater U.S. income, and we can use those net operating losses,” he said. The bottom line effect, when that loss limit is multiplied by the U.S. federal tax rate of 21%, is extra cash flow that could top $400 million a year. “There’s a strong and appropriate case to increase the corporate income tax rate.”Last year, corporate tax revenue totaled a record $425 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Over the past decade, Chevron's current U.S. federal tax expense has averaged $40 million a year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Hess, , Donald Williamson, , Pierre Breber, Williamson, Jim Seida, Jean Ross, Exxon, Darren Woods, ” Woods, Tim McLaughlin, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Chevron, Hess, REUTERS, Kogod School of Business, Internal Revenue Service, U.S, University of Notre Dame, Center for American Progress, Congressional, Graphics, Exxon Mobil, Pioneer Resources, Exxon, Reuters, Boston College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Chevron
Efforts to raise federal minimum pay have fallen flatHowever, despite numerous efforts, raising the federal minimum wage above $7.25 an hour has been unsuccessful. Lagging the rising cost of livingIn many ways, the federal minimum wage seems like a relic of the past. Recent wage gains could be lostThe actual economic impact of a federal minimum wage increase is heavily debated. “The new conventional wisdom is that at least a moderate minimum wage increase has minimal effects on employment,” Reich told CNN. “But this new paper says that a really big minimum wage increase actually increases employment.”
Persons: Ken Rose, he’s, ” Rose, Sandy, , Michael Reich, Biden’s, ” Yannet Lathrop, Lathrop, Alex Wong, hasn’t, Rose, , ” Ken Rose, Ken Rose Joe Bishop, ” Bishop, Reich, ” Reich Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, Tiburon Fine, CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic, Institute, Dynamics, University of California, Democrats, National Employment, U.S, Capitol, United Auto Workers, United, Walmart, Costco, Starbucks, Tiburon, Congressional Locations: Sandy , Utah, American, Berkeley, Washington ,, United States, Amazon, Utah, Louisville , Kentucky, Louisville, Jefferson County , Kentucky
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