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☆ Consumers are feeling the uncertainty of the economy, says The Conference Board's Steve Odland
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are feeling the uncertainty of the economy, says The Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the interest rate outlook, consumer confidence, and more.

Persons: Steve Odland Steve Odland, Steve Liesman Organizations: Conference Board

☆ 'The consumer slowdown has begun': America's deteriorating shopping spree in 4 charts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Deloitte, the consumer spending slowdown is already starting. "The stellar US economic growth recorded in the third quarter was largely due to the strong growth in consumer spending. However, it is widely expected that consumer spending will decelerate in the holiday season, thereby putting financial stress on retailers and their suppliers." Spending intentions have plummetedThe negative trend in retail sales could continue, as spending intentions among Americans have plummeted over the past few months, according to Deloitte's spending intentions index. Americans' spending intentions are the lowest they've been all year.

Persons: —, Ira Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Deloitte, Service, Wall, Conference, Survey

☆ Dollar nurses losses as US rates seen peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.9% last week alongside a big rally in U.S. The yuan also hit a three-month high on the dollar on Monday as the central bank guided it higher. "The dollar continues to struggle, with the dollar index breaking below 104 on Friday and (now) below 103.5 ... as markets decide that the Fed is done," analysts at ANZ said in a note. The Australian dollar was marginally firmer at $0.6561, just below Monday's three-month high of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6040.

Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Kit Juckes, Christine Lagarde, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: European Central Bank, New Zealand, ANZ, Conference, Federal Reserve, Futures, Generale, U.S, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo

☆ Dollar falls to 2-1/2 month low on Fed expectations, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar falls to two-month low on Fed view, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: What recession? A record number of US consumers plan to vacation in a foreign country in the next 6 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The share of US consumers who plan to visit a foreign country in the next six months is at a record high. "The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is still trying to get non-housing service sector inflation under control." download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThat suggests the Fed is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer even though markets are starting to warm up to the idea of interest rate cuts in 2024. Advertisement"The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is still trying to get non-housing service sector inflation under control," Sløk said.

Persons: Apollo, —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk Organizations: Service, Conference, Federal

☆ American consumers may be starting to buckle. Here are 5 warning signs a spending slowdown is on the horizon.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are saving lessThe personal savings rate slumped to 3.4% in September. That's well-below the pre-pandemic savings rate, when Americans were stashing away around 7% of their disposable personal income. Consumers aren't planning to splurge this holiday seasonAmericans are less likely to splurge this holiday season than last year. McKinsey & CompanyAmericans are looking less likely to splurge, even as they head into the holiday season. "Hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, —, Wizman, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok Organizations: Service, Macquarie Global, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Conference, Conference Board, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Apollo, of Labor Statistics Holiday, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Locations: York

☆ A CIO managing $40 million warns most stock-market investors are in danger of losses as high interest rates begin to stifle the economy and risk-free Treasury yields offer 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury rates are now elevated across the board as the yield curve begins to flatten out with longer-term rates continuing to rise. Here's the current equity-risk premium, which is how much the S&P 500 is expected to return annually over the next decade in excess of the 10-year Treasury note. As for downward pressure on the economy, Mulholland said the effects of higher interest rates would continue to show up in several ways. Businesses will be more hesitant to borrow money to expand as much amid higher rates, Mulholland said, and banks will be less likely to lend money. "Investors who make regular withdrawals or have large liquidity needs on the horizon would be smart to reduce stock market exposure now," Mulholland said.

Persons: Stephen Mulholland, it's, Mulholland, Rosenberg, Stocks, Louis Organizations: Mulholland, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, US Treasury Bills, Federal Reserve Bank of St, of Labor Statistics, Conference Locations: Fed's, American

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ MORGAN STANLEY: Own these 12 stocks from the energy and industrials sectors, which have historically outperformed the rest of the market by 11% as the economy nears the end of its growth cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

Morgan Stanley strategists say we're in a late-cycle environment. In a recent client note, the bank listed 12 energy and industrials stocks that should benefit. Despite stocks having technically entered a new bull market earlier this year, equity strategists at Morgan Stanley say the US economy is nearing the end of its current cycle. This story is available exclusively to Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Andrew B, Pauker Organizations: Howmet Aerospace, Marathon Oil, Treasury, Conference

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

☆ 'We are expecting a pause' from the Fed next week, says Conference Board's Dana Peterson
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We are expecting a pause' from the Fed next week, says Conference Board's Dana PetersonDana Peterson, Conference Board chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk today's PCE data and what to expect from the FOMC meeting next week.

Persons: Board's Dana Peterson Dana Peterson Organizations: Fed, Conference Board

☆ A recession is about to hit the US economy. Here are 3 warning signs that defy consensus view, according to Raymond James
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A recession is poised to hit the US economy within the next nine months, according to Raymond James. These are the three big warning signs Raymond James is monitoring ahead of a potential recession. These are the three warning signs he is monitoring ahead of a potential recession. Tailwinds that drove strong consumer spending since the pandemic are ending and excess savings have been nearly depleted. All of these risks should ultimately weigh on consumer spending habits as the crucial holiday season approaches.

Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Bank of America, Consumers

☆ Retail sales came in stronger due to climbing wages, says The Conference Board's Steve Odland
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRetail sales came in stronger due to climbing wages, says The Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss retail sales coming in higher than expected, disparity between consumer sentiment and consumer data, and strong consumer data increasing the probability for a Fed hike in January.

Persons: Steve Odland Steve Odland, Steve Liesman Organizations: Retail, Conference Board

☆ Goldman Sachs says home prices are now more unaffordable for the average buyer than they were during the 2008 housing bubble. Here are the 2 things they say would have to happen for home prices to cra
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's even tougher to buy a home right now than it was during the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble. For one, the labor market remains very strong, meaning demand will be supported — if people still have jobs, they still have money coming in to save for a home. Goldman SachsIn the Great Recession, rising unemployment hurt housing demand, bringing down home prices. Another reason Karoui thinks things are different today is what's happened in the adjustable-rate mortgage market. During the Great Recession, for example, unemployment stayed around current levels for several more months following Treasury yield curve inversion before rising meaningfully.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lotfi Karoui, Karoui, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Wall, Conference, Equity

☆ A 32-year market vet warns a recession is still on the way as the Fed's jumbo rate hikes continue to work their way into the economy — and shares 3 reasons why stocks are overvalued by 35%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.

Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed

The 10-year Treasury yield was trading over 5 basis points lower at 4.501%. It had risen as high as 4.566% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by more than 2 basis points to 5.052%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury coming down from the fresh 15-year high it hit on Tuesday. August's durable goods order figures are expected Wednesday, with economist surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a 0.5% decline.

Persons: Dow Jones, Wells Fargo, Biden Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Investors, Conference, Federal Reserve

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Tuesday's sharp losses: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 34 points, or 0.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1%. Economists' estimates called for 695,000, per Dow Jones. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted 105.5. Economists expect they declined 0.5%, according to Dow Jones.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Rob Haworth, Blanke, Robert Schein, Schein Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Costco, Homes, Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, Conference, Bank Asset Management, Micron Technology Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500, Nasdaq end four-day string of losses: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures hovered near the flat line Monday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 25 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.06%. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.45%. Nevertheless, stocks are on pace to end September lower, a month that is already known as being historically weak for equities.

Persons: doesn't, it's, Mary Ann Bartels Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: Washington

☆ A 31-year market vet shares 2 signals that show a recession is still on the way — and warns the S&P 500 still has 48% downside as valuations remain near the richest levels in history
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

☆ A 'rolling recession' in the US could morph into a full-blown slump - and the Fed's unlikely to slash interest rates in 2024, top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is in a "rolling recession" and a full-blown downturn looms, Liz Ann Sonders says. Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist doesn't expect a bunch of interest—rate cuts in 2024. "The leading indicators have absolutely imploded," Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said during a recent episode of "The Meb Faber Show." "We've never seen this kind of deterioration in leading indicators" outside of an ongoing recession, she added. Sonders was referring to The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which fell for a 16th straight month in July.

Persons: Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab's, doesn't, Charles Schwab, Faber, We've, Sonders, that's, it's Organizations: Service, shouldn't, Conference, Federal Reserve, Avatar Associates Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Morning Bid: Cooler labor warms markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. Stubborn inflation readings from Europe on Wednesday and hesitation around this week's China market rebound suggested the coast was far from clear despite worldwide stock and bond market rally in the previous session. Ebbing consumer confidence in August reinforced the message of slowing activity, however, and The Conference Board's so-called labor market differential, derived from respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, narrowed by almost six points to 26.2% - its lowest since April 2021. China's stock markets also stalled after a two-day rally, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo claiming on her three-day visit to the country that many U.S. firms now see China as "un-investable". But it seemed to draw a line under the stock market this week with a series of supports and the prospect of further cuts in lending, deposit and mortgage rates.

Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan, St's, bitcoin, Gina Raimondo, Denmark's, Kristalina Georgieva, James, Brown, Forman, Louise Heavens Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Labor, Nasdaq, Securities, Exchange, U.S . Commerce, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Cooper Companies Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Europe, China, Monday's U.S, Spain, Beijing, payrolls, Shanghai, CrowdStrike

☆ US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was reinforced by a survey from the Conference Board showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market cooled in August. Nevertheless, labor market conditions remain tight, with 1.51 job openings for every unemployed person in July, compared to 1.54 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.465 million job openings. State and local government education job openings declined by 62,000 and there were 27,000 fewer federal government vacancies. Reuters GraphicsDeclining job openings are likely to be mirrored by slower job growth in August.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Conrad DeQuadros, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Scott Anderson, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Board, Brean, Reuters, Midwest, Reuters Graphics, LPL Financial, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Northeast, West, Wyoming, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, San Francisco

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