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☆ Why does Wall Street expect a rate hike in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Not only that, it finally believes the central bank when it says it likely won’t cut rates this year. Futures traders expected a roughly 66% chance of a quarter point rate hike in June as of Friday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s a drastic about-face from even earlier this month, when Wall Street expected the central bank to slash rates multiple times this year starting as early as this summer. “If it comes in hotter than expected, it almost locks a rate hike in” for June, said Heppenstall.

Researchers have also sought to quantify fairness and bias in AI models through various socio-ethnic parameters. For example, Stanford University's artificial intelligence index report scores for bias across AI models. It found a "counterintuitive" correlation between fairness and bias: models that scored better on fairness metrics demonstrated stronger gender bias, and less gender-biased models were more toxic. Driving AI technology advancements — being a "key player or enabler across the AI ecosystem to make businesses and society better." Some investors believe AI itself can help investors monitor and track ESG efforts by companies.

☆ Wall Street’s still worried despite Friday’s fakeout
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

In other words, Wall Street still has concerns about the banking sector’s health, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and the possibility of recession. Key inflation reports aheadThe April Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are on deck for next week. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter point and opened the door to a pause later this year. Wednesday: April Consumer Price Index and earnings report from Disney (DIS). Thursday: April Producer Price Index, mortgage rates and jobless claims.

This helped push the Dow Jones Transport Average index (.DJT) down 3.6%, for its biggest one-day drop since September. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 238.05 points, or 1.98%, to 11,799.16 in its biggest one-day percentage decline since March 9. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) dropped 3.9% as First Republic (FRC.N) shares fell 49%, hitting a record low. General Motors Co (GM.N) shares fell 4% after it cautioned that 2022 price gains will not last as the year goes on, even as it lifted full-year profit and cash flow forecasts. On U.S. exchanges 10.78 billion shares traded compared with the 10.32 billion average for the last 20 sessions.

J&J (JNJ.N) shares fell 2.8% after the healthcare conglomerate cautioned investors over the lingering impact of inflation-driven costs this year. Goldman (GS.N) shares dropped 1.7% after the Wall Street firm's profit fell 19% as dealmaking and bond trading slumped. The early quarterly results from S&P 500 companies come as investors have been bracing for a gloomy reporting season, fearing the economy may be on the cusp of a downturn. S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have declined 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES data as of Friday. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 143 new lows.

☆ Fears that the US dollar will collapse are nonsense, and doomsayers are often hawking gold, investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Dollar collapse fears are bogus as the greenback can't be replaced anytime soon, Brad McMillan said. A lot of the talk is often from doomsayers trying to push gold, Commonwealth Financial's CIO said. The dollar "is not only the established choice and, in most cases, the smart choice, but it is the only choice." "Frankly, a lot of the talk is nonsense designed to panic you into buying something the doomsters are trying to sell, often gold," he wrote. "As far as the markets are concerned, the dollar is still where it has always been.

☆ Bonds are back this year after one of their worst stretches ever
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.

☆ Stock futures are up as Wall Street looks to build on winning week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stock futures edged higher Sunday evening as Wall Street came off a winning week and investors continued to follow the troubling bank sector. The moves come after Wall Street capped off a winning week despite volatility related to the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate hike and the ongoing bank crisis. The news reignited concerns over the health of the European banking system that started with UBS ' acquisition of Credit Suisse earlier this month. "Although markets were okay with the Fed, it was the second thing — the ongoing turmoil in the banking system — that mattered even more." In the week ahead, investors will likely continue watching the banking sector for indicators of potential weakness.

☆ Bond markets are pricing in an upcoming recession, says Commonwealth Financial Network's McMillan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBond markets are pricing in an upcoming recession, says Commonwealth Financial Network's McMillanBrian Levitt, Invesco global market strategist, and Brad McMillan, Commonwealth Financial Network CIO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the market's second straight positive week, McMillan's thoughts on bond markets and more.

Signs of calm and stability in banking stocks, which have tanked in the past week following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), soon paved way for renewed selling as Credit Suisse shares fell to record lows. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.67%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 51.58 points, or 2.91%Investors rushed back into safe haven investments. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ Premarket stocks: What comes next in the banking crisis? The early 1990s hold clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

This isn’t 2008: There are some key differences between today’s banking saga and what happened in 2008. This time around the US federal government stepped in early to guarantee all customer deposits and restore confidence in the US banking system. Here comes CPIFormer banking regulators, economists and Wall Street analysts are increasingly calling for the Federal Reserve to pause its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes because of the current banking sector chaos. Last Wednesday, investors were putting 70% odds of a half-point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Analysts expect the inflation rate to come in at 6% year-over-year (down from 6.4% in January) and at 0.4% month-over-month (down from 0.5% in January).

☆ Silicon Valley Bank is the second-biggest bank crash in U.S. history—here's what it means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A security guard at Silicon Valley Bank monitors a line of people outside the office on March 13, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. Late last week, Silicon Valley Bank disclosed signs of gross financial mismanagement, sparking panic among the bank's investors and customers. By Friday, the bank, which caters to numerous startups, had halted trading on its plummeting stock, prompting a race among depositors to withdraw their money. SVB and Signature Bank investors? Shares of First Republic Bank, which investors worry will suffer a similar fate, lost 52% on Monday after shedding 33% last week.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

☆ Stock futures are down slightly following Thursday’s market sell-off fueled by banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 52 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each shed 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite recorded a 2.05% slide, while the S&P 500 posted a 1.85% dip. Financials was the worst performing sector within the S&P 500 at a 4.1% drop — its worst daily performance since 2020. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 225,000 in the month, which would mark a slowdown in growth from January's unexpectedly large gain of 517,000.

☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

☆ The U.S. hit the debt ceiling — here's what that means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. hit the debt ceiling on Thursday, which forced the Treasury Department to begin taking so-called "extraordinary measures" to continue paying the government's bills. Read on for the answers to the most relevant questions about the debt ceiling, and why, as a long-term investor, you shouldn't be paying too much attention to the headlines. Remind me — what's the debt ceiling again? Where does the debt ceiling stand now? Aside from stock market volatility, you'd see ramifications across the economy.

FedEx Corp (FDX.N), which sparked a market selloff in September after pulling financial forecasts, provided financial guidance and announced plans for $1 billion cost cuts. Also, U.S. consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high in December as inflation retreated and the labor market remained strong while 12-month inflation expectations fell to 6.7%, the lowest since September 2021. It's been helped by upbeat corporate commentary and an improvement in consumer confidence," said Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis referring to Nike and FedEx. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 7, 2022. On U.S. exchanges 9.81 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.16 billion average for the last 20 sessions.

☆ Tax-loss selling in battered U.S. stocks could spur January snap-back
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet some investors are betting a number of those beaten-down stocks and possibly the broader market could snap back in January, once the selling period is over. DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC on Wednesday that risk assets will likely rally in January once retail investors finish tax-loss selling. Strategists at Evercore wrote on Nov. 30 that they were "buyers of stocks whose 2022 Tax Loss selling pressure will soon abate." Investors appear to have already started selling underperforming shares. Private clients at BofA, for instance, sold nearly $1.4 billion of stocks in likely tax-motivated selling in November, up from roughly $800 million last year, and appear poised to continue that outsized rate of selling this month, the firm said.

An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. Here is a quick primer on what an inverted yield curve means, how it has predicted recession, and what it might be signaling now. The yield curve, which plots the return on all Treasury securities, typically slopes upward as the payout increases with the duration. "It's not unusual to get a yield curve inversion but it is unusual to get one of this magnitude. When the yield curve steepens, banks can borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.

Here is a quick primer on what a steep, flat or inverted yield curve means, how it has predicted recession, and what it might be signaling now. The yield curve, which plots the return on all Treasury securities, typically slopes upward as the payout increases with the duration. read more read moreWHAT DOES AN INVERTED CURVE MEAN? Before this year, the last time the 2/10 part of the curve inverted was in 2019. When the yield curve steepens, banks can borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.

☆ Stocks may have rallied, but the bear market isn't over just yet. Here are the 5 stock market sectors where investors can still find profits amidst a global growth slowdown, says the CIO of a $13.5 bi
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Despite a recent rally, RBA's Dan Suzuki says the bear market is far from over. In former market bottoms, investors who waited profited more than those who bought early, he said. Suzuki shared 5 sectors to invest in to position against slowing growth while still making returns. "There's always a chance that the bear market is over, but it seems unlikely in my view," he told Insider recently over email. But investors would be better served if they considered a more holistic view, Suzuki explained on the October 24 segment of CNBC's "Closing Bell."

☆ Inflation bonds have surged in popularity amid a flight to safety. Why they may also be a good opportunity for younger investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investments in the U.S. Treasury's Series I savings bonds have surged this year as prices climbed and so far show few signs of easing. I bonds offer holders a standard fixed rate together with a variable rate that shifts every six months, the latter depending on the latest consumer price index numbers. Even putting a few thousand dollars in the bond could offer a decent cash cushion for times ahead, she said. While a safe haven for cash, I bonds are not an alternative to investing, McLoughlin said. Despite the market's dismal performance this year, equities offer much better returns for those with longer time horizons, she said.

☆ BiggerPockets’ housing-market guru says he sees home prices falling up to 10% over the next 12 months with housing affordability at four-decade-lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

With housing affordability deteriorating, home prices are due to fall, says Dave Meyer. The BiggerPockets housing market expert said he expects a decline of up to 10% in prices. "Houses are just not affordable at these prices with these interest rates," Meyer said. Either mortgage rates would have to skyrocket, he said, or housing prices would have to continue on their torrid pace upward. Morgan Stanley strategists said in late September that they expect home price growth to end 2023 at -3% year-over-over.

☆ An extremely reliable recession indicator just signaled that a downturn is coming. The top portfolio manager at a $232 billion firm breaks down what that means for stocks and investors — and shares 2
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yields on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes inverted last week. Peter Essele believes stocks will behave differently this time around, however. When people talk about an inverted yield curve as a recession harbinger, they're usually referring to the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. But the inversion of yields on the 3-month bill and the 10-year note is a rarer occurrence, and therefore a better recession indicator, according to some economists. While 2-year yields rose higher that 10-year yields this past spring, yields on the 3-month note surpassed 10-year yields just this week.

☆ Morgan Stanley now expects home price growth to dip negative in 2023 as mortgage rates surge to their highest levels since 2007 — and shares 4 charts that show how extreme conditions in the housing ma
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Average 30-year mortgage rates, by some measures, now sit above 7%. Add Morgan Stanley to the list of firms who now expect a decline in home prices in 2023. "We now think that YoY home price growth will turn negative in the first half of the year before finishing 2023 at -3%," they added. Morgan StanleyThe Morgan Stanley strategists see that trend to continuing. That's assuming mortgage rates stay at 6%, which they estimate is probably a conservative level.

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