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☆ U.S. forecaster sees 95% chance of El Nino prevailing through winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Earlier in the day, Japan's weather bureau forecast the chances of an El Nino through the northern hemisphere winter at 90%. The World Meterological Organization had in May warned that the weather pattern could contribute to rising global temperatures. "In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean," the CPC said. Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a "strong" El Nino event, with roughly two in three odds of temperatures rising by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or more in November-January, it added. It was also expected to bring drier weather across West Africa, South-East Asia and northern South America, and wetter conditions to southern South America in the second half of the year.

Persons: Feisal Omar, El Niño, El Nino, Brijesh Patel, Anjana Anil, Seher Dareen, Bernadette Baum, Mark Potter Organizations: El Nino, REUTERS, Meterological Organization, CPC, El, India, Thomson Locations: Marodijeex, Hargeysa, Somalia's, Somaliland, U.S, Pacific, El, El Nino, Asia, Africa, West Africa, South, East Asia, South America, Bengaluru

☆ Record hot ocean temps could turbocharge the hurricane season, says NOAA
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Catherine Clifford | In Catclifford | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Don was the first hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Record hot ocean temperatures could turbocharge this hurricane season, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA scientists increased the chance that this year will be an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% on Thursday. In May, NOAA predicted a "near-normal" hurricane season with 30% likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The revised estimate of 14 to 21 named storms puts this year close to last year when there were 14 named storms and relatively close to 2021, when there were 21 named storms.

Persons: Don, Atlantic . Don, Matthew Rosencrans, Rosencrans Organizations: National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Locations: Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic, Ready.gov

☆ What This Year’s ‘Astonishing’ Ocean Heat Means for the Planet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Elena Shao | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on July 31, 2023 –6°F 0° +6° +9° Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on July 31, 2023 –6°F 0° +6° +9°What This Year’s ‘Astonishing’ Ocean Heat Means for the PlanetBrutal heat waves have baked the world this summer and they haven’t been contained to land. Note: Average sea surface temperatures for ocean areas between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south latitude are shown. The planet’s average sea surface temperature spiked to a record high in April and the ocean has remained exceptionally warm ever since. Some have suggested that international rules aimed at reducing air pollution from maritime shipping could have inadvertently increased ocean warming. Warmer ocean temperatures also provide more fodder for tropical cyclones and atmospheric river storms.

Persons: Jan, ”, Gregory Johnson, El, Michelle L’Heureux, Zeke Hausfather, Hausfather, El Niño, von Schuckmann, Dr, Johnson Organizations: Mar, University of Maine, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Locations: Atlantic, Florida, Berkeley, Tonga

In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures. Here is how El Nino will unfold and some of the weather we might expect:WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO? El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months.

Persons: Kim Hong, heatwaves, El, El Nino, Michelle L'Heureux, Tom DiLiberto, DiLiberto, La Nina, Nina, Gloria Dickie, Jake Spring, Angus MacSwan, Sandra Maler Organizations: REUTERS, Nino, Reuters, El Nino, U.S . National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, El, Graphics, el nino, NINO, U.S . West, La, Sao Paulo, Thomson Locations: Cheongju, South Korea, China, United States, Beijing, Rome, Americas, Asia, El, Pacific, Peru, Philippines, Canada, Central, South America, Australia, of Africa, Eastern Pacific, El Nino, London, Sao

☆ When will the heat wave end? For places like Phoenix and Texas, there's no end in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jennifer Gray | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —As an unrelenting heat wave enters its 39th consecutive day, millions of people from California to Florida are asking: When will it end? El Paso, Texas, has been in the triple digits for 32 consecutive days. In Miami, the record warm sea surface temperatures, combined with light winds are causing stifling heat: The heat index there topped 100 degrees or more for a record 37 consecutive days. The heat will remain until a shift in the weather pattern occurs and either breaks apart the heat dome or moves it out of the country completely. No end in sight for hardest-hit areasThis graphic shows which areas should continue to experience heat through the rest of July.

Persons: ” Frank LoVecchio, K.C, Griffin, Megan Mendoza, That’s Organizations: CNN, Maricopa County Department of Public Health, Health Medical Center, National Weather Service, USA, Network, Reuters, . Oklahoma Locations: California, Florida, South Texas, Arizona, South Florida, El Paso , Texas, Miami, Maricopa County, Maricopa, Phoenix, Phoenix , Arizona, Texas, Coast, what’s, Southern Plains, Gulf, Rock , Arkansas, Mexico

☆ Heat wave could push temperatures as high as 130 degrees this weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Eric Zerkel | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —An already dangerous weeks-long heat wave will only worsen this weekend as a heat dome intensifies and reaches peak strength over parts of the Western United States. Around 100 million people are under heat alerts after the heat dome expanded into places like California, which is now experiencing its first extreme heat wave of the year. This shows how hot areas are compared to average with darker shades indicating more extreme heat. That’s only happened a handful of times, one of which is the all-time global record high temperature of 134 degrees. Before this latest wave, heat has already killed at least 12 people in Phoenix’s Maricopa County this year, and killed 425 people last year.

Persons: It’s, That’s, Dr, Matthew Levy, Levy Organizations: CNN, Western, Phoenix, National Weather Service, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Las Vegas . Locations: Western United States, California, Texas , Florida, Arizona, Las Vegas, Florida, North, Beijing, China, Texas, Phoenix, Maricopa County, Southern California, Southwest, South

☆ Breakingviews: El Nino will brew up potent new economic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

It looks likely that the El Nino weather phenomenon has returned, according to both the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Reuters GraphicsBy one reckoning, a single El Nino event might seem manageable. The direct impact of El Nino- and La Nina-affected weather on sowing, growing and harvesting is not the only economic consideration. On June 8 the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory that El Nino conditions “are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter”. The highest temperature reached in any past El Nino was 2.6 degrees Celsius above average in 2016.

Persons: El, Nina, Gabrielle, It’s, there’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: MELBOURNE, Reuters, El, U.S . National Oceanographic, Atmospheric Administration, Australian, of Meteorology, International Monetary Fund, University of Dartmouth, El Nino, Nina, Rabobank, Barclays, World Meteorological Organisation, Center, Thomson Locations: India, Thailand, Vietnam, El Nino, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, United States, Oceania, Australia, Western Australia, Delhi, Ukraine

☆ El Nino will brew up potent new economic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

☆ Climate event El Niño could hit the economy from food prices to clothing sales this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But that’s not the only effects expected: Combined with climate change, El Niño this year could dent US economic growth, potentially impacting everything from food prices to the winter clothing sales. Higher food prices are a common theme across El Niño events, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report. Dry weather has parched crops in El Salvador as the El Niño weather threatens food security. The last time there was an El Niño in 2018 through 2019, NOAA dubbed it “The Great Puny El Niño” due to its relatively weak impact on weather conditions. He projects that El Niño weather events could cause $84 trillion in economic losses in the 21st century.

Persons: Niño, that’s, ”, Christopher Callahan, ” Christopher Callahan, El, Lesley, Ann Dupigny, Giroux, Yi Yu, Linh Pham, Winters, Yu, Callahan, Simeon Siegel, “, Chris Scheuring, “ It’s, Camilo Freedman Organizations: CNN, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Dartmouth, Southern, University of Vermont, University of California, Southwestern, Vietnam Electricity Group, Bloomberg, Getty, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Dupigny, US Federal Aviation Administration, California Farm Bureau, La Union, Prediction Locations: Niño, University of California Irvine, Asia, Australia, Southwestern United States, Tri An, Vinh Cuu, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam, United States, rainier, El, Pasaquina, La, El Salvador

Over the same period, however, working gas inventories increased by 454 billion cubic feet compared with a prior 10-year average increase of 401 billion cubic feet. No progress was made eliminating excess inventories during the spring quarter. Freeport LNG's re-opened export terminal did not make a significant difference in depleting the excess inventories accumulated during the winter of 2022/23. Unless the summer is unusually hot, boosting gas consumption by electricity generators, excess inventories look set to persist for several more months. As a result, hedge funds and other money managers have been cautious about turning bullish on gas prices.

Persons: John Kemp, Paul Simao Organizations: Climate Prediction Center, CPC, Freeport LNG's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United States, U.S, Ukraine

On Thursday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now underway. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures. Here is how El Nino will unfold and some of the weather we might expect:WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO? Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months.

Persons: El Nino, Michelle L'Heureux, El, Tom DiLiberto, DiLiberto, La Nina, Nina, Gloria Dickie, Angus MacSwan Organizations: El Nino, U.S . National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, El, Graphics, el nino, NINO, U.S . West, Nino, La, El Ninos, Thomson Locations: Americas, El, Pacific, Peru, Philippines, United States, Canada, Central, South America, Australia, of Africa, Eastern Pacific, El Nino, London

☆ El Niño is here and could bring warmer temperatures, more extreme weather patterns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Catherine Clifford | In Catclifford | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño La Niña Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. El Niño generally causes drier conditions in Australia and Southeast Asia, and wetter and warmer conditions in the Americas. El Niño ("little boy" in Spanish) and La Niña ("little girl" in Spanish) are weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can impact weather conditions around the globe. NOAA said there is an 84% chance of an El Niño with a greater than moderate strength and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing by the winter. While these regions may see warmer temperatures, Schmidt was careful to point out that El Niño does not guarantee a heat record in any region.

Persons: Niño, El Niño, We've, Gavin A, Schmidt, El Organizations: El, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, CNBC, Tropic, Cancer Locations: Australia, Southeast Asia, Americas, United States, California, Gulf, Pacific Northwest, Ohio, El, Indonesia, South America, Eurasia

The last time an El Nino was in place, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. DECLARING EL NINOMost experts look to two agencies for confirmation that El Nino has kicked off — NOAA and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The two agencies use different metrics for declaring El Nino, with the Australian definition slightly stricter. On Tuesday, Australia issued their own bulletin, noting a 70% chance of El Nino developing this year. Experts say that a strong El Nino could hit sugar production in India and Thailand, and possibly disrupt the sugarcane harvest in Brazil.

Persons: El Nino, El, John Vizcaino, Arcodia, Gloria Dickie, Seher Dareen, Marcelo Teixeira, Angus MacSwan Organizations: U.S . National Oceanic, El, El Nino, NINO, NOAA, Australia's, Meteorology, REUTERS, El Ninos, Colorado State University, Central Pacific, Central Pacific El Nino, Nino, Thomson Locations: South America, Australia, Asia, Nino, El Nino, Pacific, Magdalena, Colombia, Honda, Central, Hawaii, Central Pacific, El, India, Thailand, Brazil, Vietnam, New York, U.S, Indonesia, Malaysia, London

☆ Record-breaking heat scorches the western US and Canada as wildfires continue to rage
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Gray | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Record-breaking temperatures and a heat wave will continue to grip the entire region through much of this week. It has prompted heat alerts for more than 10 million people across the Pacific Northwest and portions of Central California. As the heat continues to build this week, nearly 150 high temperature records will be in jeopardy across the West. Environment Canada has issued heat warnings for northern portions of Alberta and portions of British Columbia, where high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 80s. Alberta Wildfire/Handout/ReutersThe heat is also having a huge effect on Canada’s active start to the fire season.

But 29% of U.S. corn areas and 21% of soybean areas are in a drought versus 21% and 12% a year ago, respectively. Some 48% of winter wheat areas are experiencing drought versus 68% a year ago, but 16% of it is currently under exceptional drought versus just 3% a year ago. That is despite decent conditions in soft red wheat states in the east. The Drought Monitor shows 64% of Kansas in extreme or worse drought this week, topped only by a stretch from July 2012 to March 2013 in records back to 2000. The latest Drought Monitor stats in the top corn state are almost identical to the same point in 2021, leading into Iowa’s record corn-yielding season.

☆ The return of El Nino could make the world even hotter — endangering a critical climate threshold
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The El Nino Southern Oscillation system is composed of El Nino and La Nina — two opposite states of fluctuation in the Earth's climate system, which can have significant consequences on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies across the world. An El Nino event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The warmest year ever recorded, 2016, started off with a powerful El Nino that helped to boost global temperatures. This lagged effect is why forecasters believe 2024 could be the first year that humanity surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius. Weather conditions are likely to be drier than average in Indonesia during an El Nino event as rainfall moves out to the Pacific Ocean.

☆ The US Army has been dredging the Mississippi River 24/7 for 6 months. The drought crisis that grounded barges and unearthed fossils may finally be over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Morgan Mcfall-Johnsen | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The US Army Corps of Engineers has been dredging the Mississippi River 24/7 since July. USACE maintains a nine-foot-deep channel down the Mississippi River, so that ships and barges can travel freely. A barge tows cargo down the Mississippi River, in Vicksburg, Mississippi during a historic drought. The National Weather Service predicts the likely removal of drought in much of the Mississippi River basin in February. The National Weather Service's outlook forecasts a likelihood of no drought in most of the Mississippi River basin into spring.

☆ A Third La Niña Winter Will Likely Extend Record Drought in U.S. West
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Talal Ansari | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Forecasters expect more drought for the U.S. West. La Niña will return to the U.S. for the third winter in a row, bringing with it warmer temperatures for the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday forecast a drier-than-average winter across the South, but wetter-than-average conditions for areas including the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

FILE PHOTO: Boats make their way along the Mississippi river in New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S., August 28, 2020. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/Oct 20 (Reuters) - Low water levels on the Mississippi River are likely to persist this winter as drier-than-normal weather is expected across the southern United States and Gulf Coast, U.S. government forecasters said on Thursday. Crucial shipments of fertilizer, farm chemicals and road salt that move up the Mississippi River ahead of the winter have also been disrupted. "Across the lower Mississippi Valley, we are favoring continuation of below-normal precipitation," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "That would certainly, if the prediction is realized, lead to continued low water levels and exacerbate drought conditions there."

☆ Widespread drought expected to persist across the West this winter
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Evan Bush | Evan Bush Is A Science Reporter For Nbc News. He Can Be Reached At Evan.Bush Nbcuni.Com. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Little relief is expected for farmers, ranchers and reservoirs this winter in the Western U.S., as extreme drought is forecast to continue plaguing the region. That’s according to forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who predict "widespread extreme drought to persist across much of the West," according to Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Nearly 50% of the U.S. is in drought, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System, and more than one-third of the country’s population lives in areas affected by drought. Drought conditions have already drained reservoirs critical for drinking water supply, forced cutbacks on water use in the Colorado River and threatened farmers’ livelihoods. That should help relieve drought conditions in those areas.

☆ Above-average hurricane season forecast with several major hurricanes
▼ + stars: | 2022-05-24 | by ( Jennifer Gray | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —The official start to hurricane season is just a week away and forecasters are predicting another busy one. The CSU forecast called for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major storms. However, during the announcement, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad recognized that the current hurricane cycle for the Atlantic is a busy one. “If you go back two years, the 2020 hurricane season broke records across the board and it’s the most active season on record with 30 named storms,” said Spinrad. “Yes, the loop current does look like 2005,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

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