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☆ US producer inflation muted; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was the smallest year-on-year gain since August 2020 and followed a 0.9% increase in May. CORE INFLATION SLOWINGExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices fell 0.2% last month after climbing 0.1% in May. In the 12 months through June, the core PPI advanced 2.6%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since February 2021 and followed a 2.8% increase in May. While inflation is slowing, the labor market remains tight.

Persons: Bill Adams, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Financial, Services, Wholesale, Fed, Energy, LPL Financial, Treasury, CPI, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Dallas, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, New York

☆ US economy shifts into disinflation mode; consumer prices rise modestly
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was the smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 and followed a 4.0% rise in May. The year-on-year CPI is slowing in part as last year's large rises drop out of the calculation. It was the first time in six months that the so-called core CPI did not post monthly gains of at least 0.4%. Services prices rose 0.3%, matching May's gain. Economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Chris Zaccarelli, Sarah Silbiger, Michael Gregory, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters Graphics, CPI, Reuters, Independent, Treasury, El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Toronto

☆ US consumer prices post modest gains; economy shifts into disinflation mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Treasury prices rose. It was the first time in six months that the so-called core CPI did not post monthly gains of at least 0.4%. In the 12 months through June, the core CPI rose 4.8%. Core inflation is expected to continue receding in the months ahead, with the labor market cooling and independent measures showing rents on a downward trend. Economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Sarah Silbiger, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters Graphics, CPI, Reuters, Treasury, El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,

☆ US producer inflation subsides as energy, food prices drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Reuters GraphicsGoods prices, which rose 0.2% in April, were last month depressed by a 6.8% tumble in energy prices. Gasoline prices plummeted 13.8%, accounting for 60% of the decrease in goods prices. The cost of services rose 0.2% after advancing 0.3% in April, driven by margins for automobiles and parts retailing. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices edged up 0.1% last month, matching April's gain. The narrower measure of core PPI, which strips out food, energy and trade services components, was unchanged after inching up 0.1% in April.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Veronica Clark, Jerome Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Reuters, Treasury, Citigroup, CPI, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Ukraine

☆ Rising imports, falling exports push US trade deficit to six-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The trade deficit jumped 23.0% to $74.6 billion, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The government revised the goods trade data from 2018 while the trade services figures were revised from 2017. There were also increases in imports of industrial supplies and materials, though petroleum imports fell to the lowest level since August 2021. April's drop in goods exports was led by a sharp decline in exports of industrial supplies and materials, mostly crude oil and fuel oil. Adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit shot up 16.5% to $95.8 billion in April.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Toby Chopra, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Commerce Department, Trade, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York

☆ US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; labor market defies recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Labor market conditions are still tight," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. "While we expect the Fed to leave rates steady at its upcoming meeting, a more sustained loosening of labor market conditions is needed to keep rate hikes permanently off the table." Unadjusted claims increased by 5,296 to 207,941 last week, with notable rises in New York, Ohio and Illinois. While the labor market continues to surprise with strength, manufacturing is in a downward spiral. The Fed's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described the labor market as having "continued to be strong" in May, but noted that "many contacts" were "fully staffed."

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: PMI, Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor, Oxford Economics, Labor Department, Reuters, Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: May WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, New York , Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts

☆ US consumer confidence dips to six-month low, labor market views soften
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 102.3 this month, the lowest level since last November, from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. The cutoff date for the survey, which places more emphasis on the labor market, was May 22. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, fell to 31.0, the lowest since April 2021, from 36.9 in April, suggesting the labor market was loosening up. More timely data like first-time applications for state unemployment benefits suggests the labor market remains tight, but is gradually easing. "Investors should expect Friday's job report to reveal emerging cracks in the labor market."

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Jeffrey Roach, Nicole Bachaud, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Social Security, Medicare, Reuters, University of, Republican U.S . House, Sunday, U.S . Labor Department, LPL, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, North Carolina, U.S, Seattle

☆ Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Consumer spending jumped 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%. Adjusting for inflation, consumer spending shot up 0.5% after being unchanged in March. Consumer spending is being supported by strong wage gains in a tight labor market. The current pace of consumer spending is, however, unlikely to be sustained as Americans grow weary of inflation.

☆ US business spending on equipment weakening as demand for goods slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Even though business spending on equipment weakened, demand remained strong for goods like computers and electronic products as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4% last month. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the gross domestic product measurement. Goods imports dropped $2.5 billion to $257.3 billion, pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies, capital goods and other goods. While the decline in imports is supportive of higher GDP, the drop in capital goods underscored weakening business spending.

☆ US core capital goods orders fall; goods trade deficit narrows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies Core capital goods orders fall 0.4% in MarchShipments of core capital goods drop 0.4%Goods trade deficit narrows 8.1%WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March and shipments declined, suggesting that business spending on equipment likely remained a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. Data for February was revised down to show a 0.7% drop in these so-called core capital goods orders instead of the previously reported 0.1% dip. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would slip 0.1%. Shipments of core capital goods decreased 0.4% in March after falling by a similar margin in February. Goods imports fell $2.5 billion to $257.3 billion, pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies, capital goods and other goods.

☆ US labor market cooling; leading indicator flashes recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Though measured, the loss of labor market momentum added to slumping retail sales and manufacturing activity in heightening the risks of a recession as soon as the second half of the year. Jobless claimsNevertheless, the labor market is fraying around the edges. It also said contacts reported the labor market becoming less tight, noting "a small number of firms reported mass layoffs," which were "centered at a subset of the largest companies." Philly FedDespite cracks in the labor market, economists did not expect widespread job losses. The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls portion of April's employment report.

☆ US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Still, the labor market and inflation are likely not cooling fast enough to stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates one more time next month. Claims, however, remain below the 270,000 level, a breach of which economists say would signal a deterioration in the labor market. "The upcoming labor market downturn will be modest since the drop in demand is expected to be fairly modest." InflationThe annual PPI rate is subsiding as last year's large increases drop out of the calculation. In the 12 months through March, the core PPI advanced 3.6% after increasing 4.5% in February.

☆ US economy still churning out jobs at brisk clip; wage pressures subsiding
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Labor market tightness is drawing more people into the workforce, with 480,000 entrants last month, which could help to further restrain wage growth. The unemployment rate for Blacks dropped to an all-time low of 5.0%. Economists expect the labor market to loosen up considerably starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to slowing demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Details of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived were upbeat. The employment-to-population ratio, viewed as a measure of an economy's ability to create employment, increased to 60.4% from 60.2% in the prior month.

☆ U.S. consumer spending retreats in February; inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The slowdown in consumer spending reported by the Commerce Department on Friday followed the largest gain in nearly two years in January. Consumer spending, which remains supported by a tight labor market, appears on track to pick up this quarter after growing at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.2% last month. In the 12 months through February, the PCE price index advanced 5.0% after rising 5.3% in the 12 months through January. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in February after gaining 4.7% in January.

☆ US consumer confidence rises; house price inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 104.2 this month from a reading of 103.4 in February. Housing affordability, which deteriorated as mortgage rates surged in response to the Fed's fight against inflation, is starting to gradually improve as house price gains continue to moderate. Annual house price growth remained strong in the Southeast, with double-digit gains in Miami and Tampa. The region had experienced rapid house price increases in prior years. Goods trade balanceThe Commerce Department also reported that wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in February after falling 0.5% in January.

☆ US weekly jobless claims tick down as labor market remains tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The weekly unemployment claims report is the most timely data on the economy's health. "A week after the banking panic began, the labor market is steady as a rock with no new layoffs nationwide," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000 for the week ended March 18. TIGHTENING CREDIT CONDITIONSEconomists expect labor market conditions to loosen, especially in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York. The so-called continuing claims increased 14,000 to 1.694 million during the week ending March 11, the claims report showed.

☆ US labor market stays resilient; Q4 labor costs revised higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Those worries were further heightened by another report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing labor costs grew much faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. The labor market remains tight despite rising risks of a recession, contributing to keeping inflation elevated via solid wage gains. But even using alternative seasonal adjustments, economists say the labor market still is exhibiting tightness. A second report from the Labor Department showed unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - grew at a 3.2% annualized rate last quarter. Labor costs accelerated at a 6.9% rate in the third quarter, and notched hefty gains in the prior two quarters.

☆ US labor market remains tight; Q4 labor costs revised higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Those worries were further heightened by another report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing labor costs grew much faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. The labor market remains tight despite rising risks of a recession, contributing to keeping inflation elevated via solid wage gains. A second report from the Labor Department showed unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 3.2% annualized rate last quarter. Labor costs rose at a 6.9% rate in the third quarter, and notched hefty gains in the prior two quarters. The unemployment rate at 3.4% in January was the lowest in more than 53 years.

☆ U.S. core capital goods orders post largest gain in five months; shipments surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Dan KoeckSummarySummary Companies Core capital goods orders increase 0.8% in JanuaryCore capital goods shipments surge 1.1%Durable goods orders drop 4.5% on aircraftPending home sales increase 8.1% in JanuaryWASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased by the most in five months in January while shipments of those so-called core goods rebounded, suggesting that business spending on equipment picked up at the start of the first quarter. These core capital goods orders dropped 0.3% in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders edging up 0.1%. Core capital goods orders increased 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in January. Shipments of core capital goods bounced back 1.1% after declining 0.6% in December.

☆ U.S. consumer sentiment improves; inflation expectations rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Its gauge of consumer expectations dipped to 62.3 from a reading of 62.7 last month, likely reflecting lingering recession fears. Rising sentiment also suggested that the sharp declines in retail sales in November and December were a fluke. Data next week is expected to show retail sales rebounding 1.5% in January after tumbling 1.1% in December, according to a Reuters survey of economists. UMichThe University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations increased to 4.2% this month from 3.9% in January. The increase in near-term inflation expectations likely reflected a recent rise in gasoline prices.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims increase, labor market remains tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The jobs market has remained resilient despite growing economic headwinds from the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases. While labor market strength keeps the U.S. central policy on its monetary policy tightening path, it also suggests that a much anticipated recession is nowhere near. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,500 to 189,250, the lowest level since last April. "But even so, the job market remains remarkably strong." "There is no sign of easing of labor market tightness here."

☆ U.S. trade deficit widens; goods exports at 10-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The trade deficit increased 10.5% to $67.4 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The trade deficit widened to a record $948.1 billion in 2022 from $845.0 billion in 2021. Consumer goods exports fell $1.0 billion, but food exports rose $0.7 billion. A smaller trade deficit was one of the contributors to the economy's 2.9% annualized growth pace in the fourth quarter. "The economy isn't floundering, but it is unlikely to pick up much speed looking at today's trade deficit data."

☆ It's time to chill with al the recession talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —In 2021, a bunch of economists and policy makers underestimated the inflation that was taking root around the world. In 2022, as inflation hit 40-year-highs and the Fed ramped up interest rates, many of those commentators went full-on gloomy — predicting a recession was all but inevitable. And that makes it hard, if not impossible, to imagine a recession anytime soon. “Any concern the economy is in recession or close to a recession should be completely dashed by these numbers,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN on Friday. “The economy is further away from recession than ever,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.

☆ U.S. job openings increase to five-month high as labor market stays tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

There were 1.9 job openings for every unemployed person in December, the Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed on Wednesday. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased by 572,000 to a five-month high of 11.0 million on the last day of December. Others speculated that job openings had been overstated because of difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations. "A jump in job openings in the retail sector is also at odds with a lower pace of seasonal hiring around the holidays." The job openings rate up shot to 6.7% from 6.4% in November.

☆ Job openings unexpectedly jump to 11 million in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The 11 million openings for December is the highest since July. The largest increases in job openings were in accommodation and food services, which were up 409,000; retail trade, up 134,000; and construction, up 82,000, according to the BLS report. “The labor market continues to defy the recession predictions of experts,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a statement. Layoffs increased to 1.47 million from 1.41 million in November, and the number of people quitting their jobs ticked down to 4.09 million from 4.1 million. Still, there may be something more than meets the eye in December’s openings number, she added.

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