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☆ CNBC Daily Open: What recession? The U.S. economy kept growing
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with workers while visiting CS Wind, the largest wind tower manufacturer in the world, in Pueblo, Colorado, U.S., November 29, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Apple opens iPhone store in EuropeApple plans to open up its iPhone App Store in Europe to competitors. Some investors have been wary since Beijing has been struggling with a property debt crisis that has triggered financial risks across the broader economy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Tesla, Lagarde, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CS Wind, CNBC, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Europe Apple, Digital Markets, European Central Bank, Pro Locations: Pueblo , Colorado, U.S, Tesla, Europe, China, Beijing

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will likely push back Thursday against expectations for quick interest rate cuts even as Europe's economy sputters and financial markets froth in hopes of cheaper credit that would boost business activity and stock prices. Lagarde has cautioned that the bank will make decisions based on the latest figures about the economy's health rather than making longer-term promises. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials discussed prospects for rate cuts at the bank's December meeting, and the U.S. central bank has indicated it would cut its key interest rate three times this year. Rate cuts make riskier investments like stocks more attractive than safer bets like money market accounts and certificates of deposit. Expectations for rate cuts have been fueled by the rapid drop of inflation in Europe to 2.9% in December from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, “ Lagarde, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Union Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Frankfurt, U.S, Europe, Ukraine, Berenberg, Suez, Africa

☆ ECB's Lagarde responds to scathing staff survey: 'I'm very proud and honored to lead the institution'
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde looks on as she attends the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, at the European Parliament, in Brussels, Belgium September 25, 2023. President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she was "proud and honored" to leead the European Central Bank, after her leadership was slammed in a union-run survey of staff. The survey's qualitative responses suggested some staff believed she had created a negative atmosphere at the central bank, and that she spends "too much time on topics unrelated to monetary policy," IPSO said. Appearing unfazed, former politician and lawyer Lagarde said that the ECB conducted its own surveys in a "way that we can trust." The surveys are conducted by around 60% of employees, and also cover wages, respect in the workplace and workplace satisfaction, she said.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, IPSO, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, ECB, IPSO Locations: Brussels, Belgium

☆ European Central Bank holds rates steady, gives no hint at cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates unchanged, and reiterated it would keep them high for a "sufficiently long duration" to bring inflation to target. The central bank is holding steady for the third straight meeting, after hiking its deposit rate to 4% in September. The central bank is facing a sluggish euro area economy and fragile financial stability, but it is also focused on bringing inflation down to 2% from 2.9% currently. The ECB is highly concerned with cutting rates too soon and undoing some of the effects of the existing tightening. On Thursday morning, markets were factoring in a 62% probability of an April cut, according to LSEG data.

Persons: Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB

☆ Dollar hovers near 6-week high on Fed view; yen edges up after BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen , though, ticked higher as expectations rose for a stimulus exit as soon as March, following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. "We have seen ECB (European Central Bank) officials push back on rate cut expectations as well, in line with the Federal Reserve." The dollar declined 0.17% to 148.085 yen, after swinging from as low as 146.99 and as high as 148.70 on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada meets on policy on Wednesday, and is expected to leave its key overnight rate unchanged at a 22-year high of 5%. Traders have unwound bullish positions built up in anticipation of U.S. approval of the country's first spot bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF).

Persons: Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, James Kniveton, Christine Lagarde's, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, China's, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, San Francisco Fed, ECB, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ European Central Bank staff slam Lagarde's leadership in union survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde received a harsh assessment in a union-run employee survey, with some staff accusing her of fostering a negative atmosphere and focusing on her own career. Many respondents said Lagarde spends "too much time on topics unrelated to monetary policy" and forays too often into political discussion, the ECB union IPSO said alongside the results released Monday. Just over half of the nearly 1,100 respondents rated Lagarde's performance so far as "very poor" or "poor." The survey was conducted between Dec. 12 and Dec. 22, 2023, around the mid-point of Lagarde's eight-year term. The former International Monetary Fund chief and French finance minister took on the job spearheading euro zone monetary policy in November 2019.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, IPSO Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund

☆ Markets tried to fight the Fed on rate cuts. It didn’t work
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.

Persons: ’, Christopher Waller, ”, who’ve, Loretta Mester, “, Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, ”, JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States

☆ Attack is the best market defense in international competition, ECB's Christine Lagarde says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a session on the closing day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on January 19, 2024. Being strong means having a strong, deep market. Europe faces an uncertain future in its relationship with its closest international ally, following the U.S. vote. With that in mind, Lagarde said Europe should invest more in its capital markets in order to fund investments, such as, for instance, in the green transition. "Our competitive disadvantage compared to the U.S. is not subsidies but the function of our private capital market."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Joe Biden, —, Donald Trump, Christian Linder, Linder Organizations: European Central Bank, Economic, Republican, German Finance Locations: Davos, Europe, U.S, United States

☆ Inflation isn’t beaten yet and risks of a new price shock are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The job is not yet done,” François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of France’s central bank, said this week in Davos. Those “upside risks to inflation” include supply chain fragmentation, trade protectionism, climate shocks and armed conflicts, according to Gopinath. As soon as central banks start lowering interest rates “people feel better, they start spending more,” she said. Now the bank has to keep interest rates high “for as long as necessary” to put inflation firmly on the path back to 2%, she added. Meanwhile, container shipping costs along many of the world’s busiest trade routes have doubled — and in some cases tripled — since the middle of December, according to data from London-based shipping consultancy Drewry.

Persons: Sergio Ermotti, ”, “ It’s, Galhau, Gita Gopinath, Francois Villeroy de, Stefan Wermuth, Gopinath, Mary Callahan Erdoes, Christine Lagarde, “, Joe Biden, Vincent Clerc, CNN’s Richard Quest, Tobias Meyer, ” Robert North Organizations: London CNN, UBS, Economic, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, Getty, JPMorgan, Central Bank, IMF, Oxford University, Drewry, Oxford Economics, Maersk, DHL Locations: Iran, Africa, Davos, Switzerland, Red, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, France’s, Israel, Pakistan, British, Yemen, Suez, London, Asia

☆ Trump is building his power at home while global leaders dread his return
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Trump has invigorated an initially lackluster White House bid by leveraging his multiple criminal indictments to create a narrative of political persecution. On Thursday, CNN’s congressional team reported that senators trying to cut an immigration deal with the White House are running into a problem: Trump. The aid measure is being held up by the immigration showdown to which it was linked — perhaps unwisely many Democrats now think — by the White House. It has caused particular consternation in Europe after the transatlantic alliance was constantly rattled by Trump during his White House term. That’s likely to be a pale imitation of what awaits if he gets back to the White House.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Haley, Kevin Roberts –, “, can’t, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s, Biden, he’s, ”, Sen, Kevin Cramer, Trump’s, Vladimir Putin, Mike Quigley of, Jim Sciutto, CNN Max, Putin, Michael McFaul, Obama, ” McFaul, ” Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Alejandro Mayorkas, Mike Johnson, Mitch McConnell, reverberations, America’s, Christine Lagarde, Heritage’s Roberts, Roberts, that’s, ” Roberts, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Philipp Hildebrand, Emmanuel Macron, ” Macron Organizations: CNN, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, New Hampshire, Trump, Economic, Business titans, Heritage Foundation, Republicans, Capitol, GOP, Representatives, Republican, North Dakota Republican, Ukraine, Democratic, Congressional Ukraine Caucus, White, Spirit of, Homeland, US, Colorado Supreme, America, tony, European Central Bank, NATO, CNBC, ” BlackRock, Swiss National Bank Locations: Iowa, Washington, Ukraine, New, Davos, Swiss, Mike Quigley of Illinois, Moscow, Russian, Spirit of America, Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida, Europe, Iran, Paris, Switzerland, it’s, China, United States, France

People attend the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland, January 18, 2024. Javier MileiArgentina's President Javier Milei delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos on January 17, 2024. Sam AltmanSam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, attends the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 18, 2024. He said AGI could be developed in the "reasonably close-ish future," speaking at a private gathering at the Bloomberg House in Davos, Switzerland. AI took a huge leap forward in the last year or two years," Benioff said on a World Economic Forum panel Thursday.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, Donald Trump, Ursula von der, Ursula von der Leyen, Jamie Dimon Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan, Adam Galici, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Larry Fink's, bitcoin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy, Putin, Javier Milei, Fabrice COFFRINI, FABRICE COFFRINI, Fabrice Coffrini, Milei, Adena Friedman Adena Friedman, Adena Friedman, Friedman, Sam Altman Sam Altman, Sam Altman, Altman, Antony Blinken Antony Blinken, CNBC Putin, Antony Blinken, Blinken, Trump's, it's, Christine Lagarde, Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Dmytro Kuleba, Arnd Wiegmann, Trump, Vladimir, Ukraine's, Kuleba, Michelle Yeoh Michelle Yeoh, Mike Coppola, Michelle Yeoh, CNBC's Tania Bryer, Yeoh, Pedro Sanchez Spanish, Pedro Sanchez, Isabel Infantes, Sanchez, Li Qiang Li Qiang, Li Qiang, Li, Isaac Herzog, Kfir Bibas, Herzog, Kfir, Hossein Amir, Abdollahian, Atta Kenare, Joe, Biden, Netanyahu, Amir, Sergio Ermotti, MICHAEL BUHOLZER, Ermotti, Marc Benioff Marc Benioff, Salesforce, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Marc Benioff, Benioff, Ray Dalio Ray Dalio, Bridgewater, Ray Dalio, Dalio, Mark Carney Mark Carney, DANIEL LEAL Organizations: Economic, Reuters, European, JPMorgan Chase, CNBC, BlackRock, Getty, Afp, NASDAQ, CNBC Nasdaq, Reuters OpenAI, Bloomberg, State, European Central Bank, Central Bank, Reuters Ukraine's, United Nations Development, Spanish, Getty Images, Hamas, Palestinian, Hezbollah, Turkish, AFP, Iranian, Sergio Ermotti UBS, Getty Images UBS, Credit Suisse, Bridgewater Associates, U.S, Bank of England, UN, OLIVAS Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Ukraine, Gaza, Russia, China, Moscow, WEF, AFP, OpenAI, U.S, Russian, Iran, Europe, United States, Hollywood , California, Madrid, Spain, Beijing, Washington, Lebanese, Tehran, Israel, Hiroshima

☆ Leaders at Davos see a global economy moving toward a new normal
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Lucy Handley | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a session on the closing day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on January 19, 2024. The pandemic saw spending fall and people's savings grow, while global trade was also disrupted. The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects trade to increase by 3.3% in 2024, per a forecast released in October. "Around the world, inflation is coming down, and we have seen it in November [in] both headline inflation and core inflation," she said. Speaking on the same panel, WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala agreed that the economy is "maybe moving towards normalization" but she described it as "not normal, because trade growth is still trending below GDP growth."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Ngozi Okonjo Organizations: European Central Bank, Economic, Bloomberg, World Trade Organization, ECB Locations: Davos, Switzerland

☆ Dollar holds near one-month peak as dovish Fed bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar held close to a one-month peak versus major peers on Thursday after robust U.S. retail sales data overnight added to building expectations the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower interest rates. Australia's dollar weakened after data showed an unexpected decline in employment. Traders have trimmed the odds of a first Fed rate cut by March to 53.8%, down from 63.1% on Tuesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg there would likely be majority support among ECB officials for an interest rate cut in the summer, although she stressed they would be data-dependent. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar weakened after data showed a 65,100 drop in jobs for December, where economists had forecast a 17,600 increase.

Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sterling Organizations: Reserve, U.S, hawkish Bank, Japan, Traders, IG, Bloomberg, Bank of England, British, greenback Locations: Japan

☆ Dollar at one-month high as rate cut expectations ease on Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index hovered at a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller dampened expectations for a March rate cut. "I will need more information in the coming months confirming or (conceivably) challenging the notion that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our inflation goal," before backing rate cuts, he said on Tuesday. Market expectations of a rate cut in March have eased to a 62.2% chance versus an 76.9% view in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. "Rate cuts are coming but not as soon as some might be hoping for," Sycamore said. Meanwhile, the euro was hanging near a one-month low at $1.0875 after its steepest one-day percentage drop in two weeks, following comments from several ECB policymakers this week that maintained uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CME's, Tony Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sycamore, Sterling, Rodrigo Catril Organizations: Federal Reserve, IG, European Central Bank, Treasury, Bank of Japan, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Asia

Zelensky and Trump loom over DavosTwo people are having an outsize impact at the World Economic Forum, and one of them isn’t even there. One is Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, who put on a full-court press of business and global leaders at the forum in Davos, Switzerland. Zelensky isn’t the only leader at Davos worried about Trump. The Ukrainian leader has sought to shore up global business support. And the annual wine tasting hosted by Anthony Scaramucci, the financier and former Trump official, well, ran out of wine.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, Andrew, Trump, Putin, “, ” Zelensky, Republican Party ”, DealBook, thumped, JPMorgan Chase, Steve Schwarzman, Blackstone, Ray Dalio, David Rubenstein, Carlyle, Michael Dell, John Kerry, Biden’s, Anthony Scaramucci, Christine Lagarde, Christopher Waller, Nelson Peltz’s, James Gorman, Morgan Stanley, Mary Barra, General Motors —, Bob Iger, Disney’s, Murray Auchincloss, Bernard Looney, Auchincloss, Yi Fuxian Organizations: Trump, Economic, Ukraine, Republican Party, Republican, JPMorgan, Congress Center, Dell, European Central Bank, Fed, Disney, General, BP, University of Wisconsin – Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Europe, Ukraine, American, Iowa, Bridgewater, China, Beijing, Russia, Britain, U.S, Asia, University of Wisconsin – Madison

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Cutting interest rates too soon could threaten Europe’s progress in battling the inflation that has ravaged the economy, the head of the European Central Bank said Wednesday amid widespread speculation that the bank soon will lower rates from record highs. But higher prices have spread through the economy in the form of high prices for services and higher wages. Meanwhile, sluggish economic growth and the impact of higher interest rates on economic activity have sparked bets on rate cuts. Higher rates are the typical antidote to high inflation because they make it more expensive to borrow and buy things, reducing demand for goods. “The first question for next week's European Central Bank meeting is how the bank will react to current market pricing,” Brzeski wrote in a preview of the meeting.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Carsten Brzeski, ” Brzeski, “ Organizations: European Central Bank, Bloomberg, ECB, U.S . Federal, Wall Street, Union, ING, Central Bank Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Davos, Switzerland, Israel, Europe, Ukraine

☆ Trump’s landslide Iowa win is a stunning show of strength after leaving Washington in disgrace
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s huge win in the Iowa caucuses on Monday enshrines one of the most astonishing comebacks in American political history. His MAGA-hat wearing crowd greeted him with chants of “Trump, Trump, Trump” beneath two vast screens reading “Trump wins Iowa!”But the ex-president’s rebound is more stunning for another reason. Trump’s Iowa victory also sharpens the collision between the 2024 election and his legal imbroglio. His unhinged behavior, incessant shattering of rules and challenges to the law reinvigorated a brand perfectly tailored to Republican voters who despise “elites” in politics, government and the media. Trump’s victory will also give Russian President Vladimir Putin another reason to prolong the bloody war in Ukraine.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, ” Trump, MAGA, “ Trump, “, he’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Haley, DeSantis, it’s, Biden, Kari Lake, “ It’s, Donald Trump, Scott Jennings, —, E, Jean Carroll, don’t, GOP —, CNN’s Manu Raju, Tim Scott, Sen, John McCain, Jimmy Carter, Doug Burgum, Trump’s, America’s, Christine Lagarde, Vladimir Putin, he’d, Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky Organizations: CNN, GOP, Trump, “ Trump, Iowa, Capitol, Republican, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, Senate, Republican Party, Republican National Committee, North Dakota Gov, White, European Central Bank, NATO Locations: Iowa, Manhattan, week’s, Hampshire, Arizona, ” Iowa, Trump’s Iowa, Carolina, Des Moines, France, Europe, Ukraine

☆ Europe wants to Trump-proof in case of a second term. But that is not an easy task
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Luke Mcgee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —Former US President Donald Trump briefly returned as a central character in European politics earlier this week. Multiple EU officials and diplomats noted to CNN that his sudden recollection came at a particularly sensitive time, as the EU attempts to build its own defense capabilities outside of the US-led NATO alliance. Whether Trump actually made these comments or not is largely immaterial to European officials. And his hostility toward the Ukraine war effort has an impact even now, playing into the Republican Party’s reluctance to pass more US funding for Ukraine. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, said only this week that Trump’s return would be a “threat” for Europe.

Persons: Donald Trump, Thierry Breton, Trump, Ursula von der Leyen, ” Breton’s, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Letitia James, Spencer Platt, ”, Joe Biden, Europe’s, Ian Bond, ” Donald Trump, Jim Watson, Angela Merkel, Jesco Denzel, there’s, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN, Former, European, Republican, NATO, New York, Getty, Ukraine, “, Trump, EU, Centre, Economic, European Central Bank Locations: Europe, Iowa, Ukraine, New York City, Brussels, EU, United States, America, China, Davos, AFP, Russia, Beijing, Moscow, Charlevoix , Canada, European

☆ European Central Bank holds rates and trims its inflation forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - NOVEMBER 27: Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank speaks during the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) meeting in Brussels, Belgium on Nevember 27, 2023. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row, as it revised its growth forecasts lower and announced plans to speed up the shrinking of its balance sheet. The latest staff macroeconomic projections see average real GDP expanding 0.6% in 2023, from a prior forecast of 0.7%. Headline inflation is meanwhile seen averaging 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Members see core inflation, excluding energy and food, averaging 5% this year and 2.7% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.1% in 2026.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dursun Aydemir, James Smith, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, Getty, ECB, ING Locations: BRUSSELS, BELGIUM, Brussels, Belgium, Anadolu

☆ European Central Bank to focus on shrinking balance sheet as markets bet on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-13 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFRANKFURT — The European Central Bank meets this week with investors closely monitoring to see when the Frankfurt institution might start to cut interest rates. "Nonetheless, markets will probably have to correct some of their overoptimistic rate cut expectations once the ECB has spoken this Thursday." watch nowMoney markets are currently pricing in almost 150 basis points of rate cuts next year. The PEPP, or the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, is a flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, Isabel Schnabel, Mark Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, FRANKFURT, ECB, Reuters, Deutsche Bank Locations: Frankfurt, Berenberg

☆ Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.

Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, –, Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central

☆ ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month from above 10% a year earlier after a record string of rate hikes. Schnabel, who had insisted just a month ago that rate hikes must remain an option because the "last mile" of the inflation fight may be the toughest, said she had shifted stance after three unexpectedly benign inflation readings in a row. "The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely." "The recent inflation print has given me more confidence that we will be able to come back to 2% no later than 2025." Schnabel said weak growth as a result of the ECB's rate hikes is helping the inflation fight but that a deep or prolonged recession is unlikely, with recent survey data supporting expectations for a recovery.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jim Urquhart, Schnabel, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de, Yannis Stournaras, Joachim Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Teton, Jackson, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Greece, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, French, Francois Villeroy de Galhau

☆ Dollar rises, recouping losses from strengthened Fed rate cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, rose by 0.4% to 103.71, while the euro was last down nearly 0.5% at $1.0828. "I think it's the fact that U.S. policy rate expectations have gone too far and will unwind more in December than rate expectations elsewhere," said Colin Asher, senior economist at lender Mizuho in London. "November was... a very poor month for the U.S. dollar, in part driven by expectations of easier Fed policy," Asher said. The dollar was trading higher against the yen at 147.34, after falling to 146.24 in the Asian session, its lowest since mid-September. "A steady USD decline needs more than just an expectation of Fed rate cuts, it also needs strong growth outside of the U.S. which doesn't seem to be the case currently," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets.

Persons: Colin Asher, Asher, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Charu, denting, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Federal Reserve, Mizuho, U.S ., Saxo Markets, European Central Bank Locations: London, Germany

☆ Morning Bid: Gold makes the running as oil fails to fire
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil failed to sustain an early rally that followed news of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Notably, oil prices lost early gains and Brent eased around 57 cents to $78.31 a barrel amid doubts that OPEC+ would be able to maintain planned output cuts, particularly by some African countries. At the same time, U.S. oil output is at record levels above 13 million barrels a day and rig counts are still rising. A commodity faring better is gold, which surged suddenly this morning to top $2,111 an ounce for the first time before paring the gains to $2,086. Yields on U.S. two-year notes rose almost 4 bps, but that follows a drop of 40 bps last week.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Wayne Cole, Treasuries, Yemen's, Brent, Bundesbank, Christine Lagarde, Bonds, Goldman Sachs, Anna Breman, Riksbank, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Bulls, ECB, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, Wayne, Red, U.S, Saudi Arabia

☆ Dollar on shaky ground as Fed rate cut bets strengthen
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Powell said on Friday it was clear that U.S. monetary policy was slowing the economy as expected, with the benchmark overnight interest rate "well into restrictive territory." The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, was last hovering around Friday's close at 103.28. That means dollar pairs could continue to get a boost depending on U.S. economic data, Rodda said. Against the yen, the dollar was fetching $146.58 yen , after falling to 146.24 earlier in the session, its lowest since Sept. 11. The yen has recently pulled away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 per dollar touched in the middle of November.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Bitcoin, Powell, Kyle Rodda, Rodda, Sterling, Christine Lagarde, Carol Kong, bitcoin, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, U.S, U.S ., European Central Bank, ECB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, cryptocurrencies

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