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BANGKOK (AP) — Markets fell in Europe and Asia after China reported Wednesday that its economy grew at a 4.9% annual pace in July-September, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter. The future for the S&P 500 lost 0.2% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.1% lower. Weak global demand and the property industry remain the biggest shadows overhanging the economy in the near term, economists said. “The wider data on the property sector remained weak, although green shoots are appearing,” Capital Economics said in a report. Bank of New York Mellon rose 3.8% after it also reported stronger profit than expected for the latest quarter.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Wyndham, Brent, Writers Zen Soo, Stan Choe Organizations: , CAC, FTSE, Dow Jones, Bureau of Statistics, Nikkei, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Nvidia, Bank of America, Wall, Bank of New, Bank of New York Mellon, Wyndham Hotels, Resorts, , New York Mercantile Exchange, AP, Writers Zen Locations: BANGKOK, Europe, Asia, China, Paris, Shanghai, Tokyo, Bank of New York, Iran
[1/3] A little girl sits with her dad in a park in Shanghai, China, April 2, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Oct 10 (Reuters) - China's National Bureau of Statistics will conduct a nationwide sample survey in November to help better plan population policies, in an unexpected poll as authorities struggle to boost the country's flagging birth rate. The survey's scope on population changes will focus on urban and rural areas throughout the country, according to state media reports on Tuesday. The plan will help to "accurately and timely monitor China's population developmental changes and provide a basis for the Communist Party and the government to formulate national economic, social development and population related policies," the bureau said. China last conducted its once-in-a-decade census in November 2020 which showed it grew at the slowest pace since the first modern population survey in the 1950s.
Persons: Aly, Farah Master, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party, Authorities, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, Beijing, China's
HONG KONG (Reuters) - China's National Bureau of Statistics will conduct a nationwide sample survey in November to help better plan population policies, in an unexpected poll as authorities struggle to boost the country's flagging birth rate. Concerned about China's first population drop in six decades and its rapid ageing, Beijing is urgently trying an array of measures to lift the country's birth rate including financial incentives and boosting childcare facilities. The survey's scope on population changes will focus on urban and rural areas throughout the country, according to state media reports on Tuesday. The plan will help to "accurately and timely monitor China's population developmental changes and provide a basis for the Communist Party and the government to formulate national economic, social development and population related policies," the bureau said. China last conducted its once-in-a-decade census in November 2020 which showed it grew at the slowest pace since the first modern population survey in the 1950s.
Persons: Farah Master, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reuters, National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, China, China's
Over one in 5 Chinese young adults looking for work can't find it, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. According to UNICEF, youth unemployment can lead to social and economic unrest. For their July data released last week, Chinese government officials entirely omitted the data on youth unemployment. According to research from United Nations Children's Fund, youth unemployment impacts present and future economic growth and stability. The report also warns that youth unemployment can have "significant and serious social repercussions" and social unrest.
Persons: Sun Xin, Sun, haven't, Xi Jinping, it's, Liu Xingyu, Liu Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, UNICEF, Service, China's National Bureau of Statistics, King's College London, NBC News, CNBC, The New York Times, Times, United Nations Children's Fund, Street Journal Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, COVID
China's sputtering growth and property market hurdles have led to comparisons with Japan's troubles in the 1990s. But key differences remain and China's economy isn't yet at the level of Japan's crisis 30 years ago. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index dropped 0.3% annually in July, tipping the economy into deflation and fueling reminiscences of Japan in the early 1990s. Only this year have Japan's stock markets returned within range of the highs seen in 1990. Real estate prices in Japan fell about two-thirds, and the stock market still has never got back to where it was in 1989.
Persons: David Dollar Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, China's National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Times, Nikkei, Brookings Institute, Brookings Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Japan, 1Q23, Tokyo, United States, Real
Deflation — the trend of prices falling throughout the economy — presents a particularly dangerous trajectory for China, which carries a massive amount of debt. The main components of GDP on the demand side — consumption, investment, net exports — they all have serious problems right now." A shaky property marketMost of China's economic troubles tie directly into its property market. Roughly a quarter of China's population works in agriculture — well above the 3% mark in the US — and that presents its own productivity limitations. From an unstable, debt-ridden property market to anti-business policies and demographic issues, Beijing has plenty to tackle if it hopes to match the same growth as decades past.
Persons: David Dollar, Biden, Dexter Roberts, Roberts, Terry Group, it's, Xi Jinping Organizations: Service, China's National Bureau of Statistics, People's Bank of, Federal Reserve, Brookings, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Financial Times, China's, Global, US Census Bureau, Atlantic Council, Communist Party, Garden Holdings, Beike Research Institute, Terry Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, China, People's Bank of China, China's US, Western, Russia, Asia, Ukraine, Mexico, China cratered, Rocky
[1/2] A general view of the sun rising behind the White House in Washington, U.S. January 22, 2021. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File PhotoWASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's comment about China being a "ticking time bomb" referred to internal economic and social tensions that could have an effect on how Beijing interacts with the world, a White House official said Friday. Kirby defended the funding request, saying, "Yes, this is an urgent need for us to be able to provide an alternative." Biden told donors: "China is a ticking time bomb ... China is in trouble. Liu said China's GDP growth continued to provide an important support for the development of the global economy.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Joe Biden's, John Kirby, Kirby, Liu Pengyu, Biden, Liu, We've, Xi Jinping, Andrea Shalal, Michael Martina, Chris Reese, David Gregorio Our Organizations: White, REUTERS, Reuters, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, China, Beijing, Utah, Washington, United States, India
President Biden will announce an executive order that bans investments in some Chinese tech companies in 2024. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The Wednesday development marks the latest step by the White House to limit investors' involvement and access to Chinese markets. In July, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US could soon curb cloud providers from selling services to China. It's another sign that illustrates how the Chinese economy has stumbled out of the pandemic rather than rebounding.
Persons: Biden, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen Organizations: Service, New York Times, White, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, China's National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Beijing, China, Wall, Silicon
"You're too old to work at 35, but too young to retire at 60," one person wrote, bemoaning the "curse." It refers, specifically, to the typical Chinese employer's preference for hiring workers who haven't reached the sell-by date of their 35th birthday. And it's not just about finding work — Chinese workers being phased out at what was previously viewed as the prime of their careers means their livelihoods could be seriously affected. "At this point in time, youth unemployment is high, so many young workers are willing to work for less. Seah told Insider that increased competition for younger workers "will eventually drive up youth wages, making them relatively more expensive to hire."
Persons: haven't, Hector Retamal, Huang, Tania Lennon, Lennon, I, Kevin Frayer, workhorses, Kelvin Seah, Seah, aren't, National University of Singapore's Seah Organizations: Twitter, Service, Getty, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Institute for Management Development, China Initiative, Bureau of Statistics, National University of Singapore, National Bureau of Statistics, Employers, National University of Singapore's Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Weibo, Beijing, AFP, Quy Huy
China's youth unemployment problem is the root of its economic woes, according to economist Nancy Qian. That's largely due to a shortage of high-skill, high-paying jobs, which will weigh on its economy. That's largely been driven by the lack of high-skill and high-paying jobs in China's employment market, which have left many college graduates unable to find work. Meanwhile, China's economy has been slowing, with the nation seeing a disappointing economic revival since dialing back its zero-COVID policies at the start of this year. But current patterns raise profound concerns for China's economic outlook, especially considering that the government's policies for addressing them have not worked," Qian said.
Persons: Nancy Qian, That's, Qian, It's, that's Organizations: Service, Northwestern University, Project Syndicate, National Bureau of Statistics, Monetary Fund Locations: Wall, Silicon, China
Producer prices sank 5.4% in June from a year earlier and slipped 0.8% from a month ago, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This was weaker than a Reuters poll that had expected a 5.0% annual decline, compared with the 4.6% annual decline in May. The annual decline in June was China's ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015. Monthly consumer price inflation in June was weaker 0.2%, weaker than expectations for flat growth and tracking the 0.2% decline in May. But this would still be soft and won't constrain the People's Bank of China's ability to loosen policy further."
Persons: Zhichun Huang, , Huang, PBOC Organizations: Visual China, Getty, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, Bank, People's Bank of China Locations: China, Ukraine
China's factory activity grew more slowly in June, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, corroborating official data last week that pointed to stuttering growth in the world's second-largest economy. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index slipped to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May. China's National Bureau of Statistics released data last Friday that showed the country's official manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.0 in June — compared with 48.8 in May. "Problems reflected in June's Caixin China manufacturing PMI, ranging from an increasingly dire job market to rising deflationary pressure and waning optimism, also point to the same conclusion." The Caixin manufacturing PMI surveys around 650 private and state-owned manufacturers that tend to be more export-oriented and located in China's coastal regions, while the official PMI surveys 3,200 companies across China.
Persons: , Wang Zhe Organizations: P Global, National Bureau of Statistics, Caixin Insight, PMI Locations: June's, China
The bubble in China's property market finally popped. In April, China's economic data came in weak largely across the board. The problem is that while consumers may be picking up, the biggest drivers of the Chinese economy — property and exports — are going to stay dormant. Consumer consumption makes up about 37% of the Chinese economy (in the US that figure is about 70%). Beijing has tried to shift the country toward a consumption model, like the US, but exports still make up 20% of China's economy.
Persons: lockdowns, it's, Xi Jinping, Stanley Druckenmiller, We're, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wei Yao, Leland Miller, Miller, Yao, Wright, I've, , Kearney, Linette Lopez Organizations: Trade, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Invest Conference, Bank of America's, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Societe Generale, Analysts, Beijing, China, Chinese Communist Party, China's Locations: China, globalism, Beijing, York, Asia
The recovery in China has been much slower than what other major countries experienced when they lifted their pandemic restrictions. Still, the Chinese consumer has proved to be resilient in the face of these broader economic challenges. It marked the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2022, fueled by higher spending from Chinese consumers. Club stock results Recent financial results from our China-exposed companies show that Chinese consumers have been holding up even as broader economic recovery is delayed. China is a growth market for each company and improvement in economic activity there should be a catalyst for these stocks.
Persons: Estee Lauder, , Ting Lu, WYNN, hasn't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jason Lee Organizations: Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, China Index Academy, National Bureau of Statistics, Club, Gaming, Prestige, CNBC Locations: China, China's, Beijing, Macao, Asia, SBUX
People walk past buildings in Shanghai, Shanghai, China, on Friday, April 21, 2023. Producer price index in May fell 4.6%, marking the steepest year-on-year drop in seven years, when producer prices saw a year-on-year drop of 7.2% in May 2016. China's low consumer inflation and deflation in its producer prices come in contrast to relatively high inflation in major economies around the world. The mining and raw material industries led declines in producer prices, while food, tobacco and alcohol prices led consumer price gains, the data showed. Nearing bottomDespite the softness in the latest price indexes, one China market watcher seemed to be holding on to an optimistic "long China" call.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Zhang, Andrew Maynard of Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, CPI, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S ., CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Shanghai, China, Canada, Australia, Shenzhen, Andrew Maynard of China
Some of Wall Street's top banks raised their forecasts for China's economy this week. The banks all predict China's GDP will grow by around 6% in 2023. UBS also turned more bullish on China's economy, raising its year-end prediction to 5.7%. "We expect China's GDP to peak around 8% in the second quarter before easing to around 5.5% in the second half of the year." "This will bring the full year GDP growth to at least 5.7%, in our view," the strategists added.
Estee Lauder (EL), Starbucks (SBUX) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are the Club's consumer discretionary stocks with the greatest exposure to the Chinese market. Shares of Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn — up roughly 3.5%, 9.2% and 37.5% year-to-date, respectively — edged up on the news Tuesday. For Estee Lauder, a leader in luxury skin care, makeup and fragrances, China accounts for about a third of total revenue. The Club's take China's latest economic data highlights our investment case for our three big consumer companies doing business in the country. However, we're pleased to see a robust rebound in consumer activity in the world's second largest economy, signifying a positive growth outlook for Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn Resorts.
China is an important luxury market. Bain expects these consumers will account for 46% of the global luxury market by 2025. However, Wu's comments echoed Bain's positive outlook for China's luxury market. China's consumer price index, or CPI — the monthly change in prices paid by consumers — showed bleak data for March. It could be the reason Bank of America's Wu told CNBC that strong recovery across China's consumer sector has not yet been seen.
D3sign | Moment | Getty ImagesChina is facing a population crisis in part due to more women choosing to focus on their careers and personal goals, instead of starting a family. Helping women strike the balanceTrip.com is one Chinese company that takes pride in trying to encourage more women to have children. Women in China who want to freeze their eggs must be married, according to Chinese regulations. However, some women in China want children but may not be ready to get married, said Mu the assistant professor from NUH. Shannon a single motherAdditionally, women who divorce after having children face social stigma and struggle to balance their career while raising a child alone.
That could mark a significant change in the international travel market, to which Chinese tourists are outsized contributors. In the first half of that year alone, their outbound travel spend surpassed $127.5 billion, a study from Chinese travel booking site Ctrip.com found. Chinese outbound travel is forecast to recover around two-thirds of its pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Leopatrizi | E+ | Getty ImagesBecause of those shortcomings, countries that can accommodate Chinese travelers' shifting needs have emerged as clear winners. Thailand, for instance, offers visas-on-arrival to fully vaccinated Chinese tourists who have travel insurance.
European markets were on course to open higher Friday, extending the previous session's gains as investors take stock of the slew of economic data published this week. Across Europe, inflation data came in hotter than expected. A flash estimate for the euro zone showed headline inflation eased from 8.6% to 8.5%, but this was above a consensus estimate; while core inflation rose from 5.3% to 5.6%. However, in a separate speech, Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller raised the possibility of a higher terminal rate if inflation does not cool, citing January's bumper payrolls report. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher Friday, while U.S. stock futures nudged lower.
European markets are heading for a modestly higher open, continuing the lackluster trend seen on Tuesday when regional markets closed lower after a mostly muted session. U.S. stock futures inched downward overnight as investors came off a losing month. In Asia-Pacific markets, stocks mostly rose as investors digested a slew of key economic data across the region. China's National Bureau of Statistics also reported its official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012.
Bond yields soared Wednesday, extending this year's jump in borrowing costs. The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4% for the first time since November. The 10-year Treasury yield, a gauge of borrowing costs for a range of consumer loans and other debt, sprang up nine basis points to 4.006%. Bond yields have shot up in 2023 after a run of higher-than-expected consumer and wholesale prices for January. As bond yields have risen, "bond love" is at a 10-year high, Bank of America said Wednesday.
Bitcoin and other risk assets rose after strong Chinese manufacturing activity data. The coin on Wednesday was gaining ground on notably strong manufacturing data out of China. China's National Bureau of Statistics said its manufacturing activity index rose to 52.46 in February, the highest reading since April 2012, according to Bloomberg. Chinese stocks bounced higher, with the Hang Seng Index soaring more than 4%. Copper was another risk-on asset gaining ground, up 1.2% at $4.14 per pound on prospects of higher Chinese demand for the metal used for construction projects.
China's economic recovery is off to a slow start
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Hector Retamal | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's economic recovery is off to a modest start. Migrant workers have mostly returned to work after China's biggest holiday of the year, and children went back to school this week. It also remains to be seen how demand from China's growth picks up as businesses resume work and travel after the Lunar New Year holiday. Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that in-person meetings are particularly important for doing business in China, and that such interactions weren't easily feasible last year. Ting Lu chief China economist, Nomura
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