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That's one observation about the current crypto bounce Bernstein analysts made in a note to investors Monday. They called it a mean-reversion rally, meaning that they see bitcoin prices reverting to their long-term mean or average level. "We reckon, the mean reversion of crypto still has some headroom," analyst Gautam Chhugani said in the note. BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin Nevertheless, Chhugani attributed the recent bounce to capital already within the crypto industry, namely "sidelined stablecoins" being deployed. As the crypto asset class becomes "more regulated," Chhugani expects to see institutions take crypto positions this year, he said.
Analysts from Bernstein laid out why they're still bullish on the crypto space. But Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Manas Agarwal offer crypto true believers a few reasons to keep the faith. Crypto keeps bouncing backThe past year was not the first "crypto winter," and crypto always bounced back fairly easily. Much of the crypto space remains decentralized. Chhugani and Agarwal said FTX's collapse had hastened DeFi adoption, which makes DeFi a bright spot in crypto investing, according to crypto VCs.
Analysts from Bernstein laid out why they're still bullish on the crypto space. But Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Manas Agarwal offer crypto true believers a few reasons to keep the faith. In a note published on January 3, they wrote that despite a catastrophic 2022, the larger crypto ecosystem still has potential. Much of the crypto space remains decentralized. Chhugani and Agarwal said FTX's collapse had hastened DeFi adoption, which makes DeFi a bright spot in crypto investing, according to crypto VCs.
If history is any indication, crypto prices will rally exponentially when this crypto winter is over, according to Bernstein. "Prior to 2022, crypto has gone through two winters in its 13-year history and the track record of buying into crypto stress has been spectacular," said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani in a note Monday. "Crypto as an industry has a great track record of fighting back from its lows and taking punches when down." "Today, crypto touches less than 5% of total internet users with significant headroom for application led adoption." "Crypto today has 200 million holders, but around 10 million monthly active wallets using apps," he added.
Investors have been pulling billions of dollars of funds off Binance amid growing scrutiny over the crypto exchange's reserves. On Tuesday afternoon, more than $6.6 billion in crypto had left the exchange over a 24-hour period, according to Nansen. This has investors spooked about the health of Binance in the wake of former competitor FTX's spectacular downfall, which ended Tuesday with CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's arrest and indictment . It remains to be see how wide the damage done by FTX spreads in the crypto market. Clara Medalie, research director at crypto data firm Kaiko, said liquidity on Binance has stayed stable and bitcoin's market depth is holding steady.
Bernstein has sifted through the various sectors of the crypto industry and identified winners and losers for 2022. Crypto suffered the added handicap of the financial contagion from the collapse of Terra in the first half of the year and FTX currently. Binance, which operates in a regulatory gray zone, will eventually become the "global consolidator" of smaller off-shore exchanges, Bernstein said. While FTX taught investors about the risks of storing crypto holdings with centralized entities, revelations in the stablecoin sector went the other way around. Solana, on the other hand, took a hit, stained by the fallout of FTX, a big and early backer of Solana.
Cryptocurrencies were under pressure for a second day Wednesday as the market digested the fallout of Binance's planned bailout of FTX. The Solana token continued its slide. "This is an adverse event for the Solana ecosystem in the short run. Further, given FTX/Alameda's balance sheet situation, there may be near term pressure on its Solana holdings, as the situation resolves." The crypto market briefly spiked on Tuesday after Bankman-Fried, also known as SPF, announced that Binance will acquire its non-U.S. operations but plummeted shortly after.
Things are looking up for crypto after bitcoin and ether finally climbed enough to post gains for October. Prices were unusually flat for most of the month, but several investors have interpreted that as stability and resilience. Still, investors say that while it may be too early to call a bottom, recovery is in sight. McClurg also a highlighted a recent move of $940 million in bitcoin investors removed from exchanges, calling it a typically bullish signal and an indicator that people are saving their bitcoin rather than selling it. While the central bank continues to dominate investors' attention, the case for bitcoin continues develop for other market participants.
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