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This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-steps-up-economic-war-with-west-seizing-assets-of-big-conglomerates-e592f137
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Some investors see India as the new China, but the South Asian economy still has to narrow a few gaps. These factors make it difficult for India to surpass China as the factory of the world. The country's potential appears brighter after its population surpassed China's, prompting many observers to tout the South Asian country as the next economy to watch. There's so much optimism about India that Goldman Sachs forecasts India's economy will surpass the US by 2075. Here are four ways India is still playing catch-up to its Asian rival, China.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Pramit Chaudhuri, Chaudhuri, Narendra Modi's, hasn't, Eurasia Group's Chaudhuri, Ashutosh Sharma, Forrester Organizations: Service, Eurasia Group, Swiss, UBS, East, China, US International Trade Administration, Bank Locations: India, China, Wall, Silicon, South Asia, China's, Eurasia
CNBC Daily Open: May’s CPI reading lets Fed pause hikes
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Though the annual rate of inflation at 4% is still two times the Fed's target, it's the slowest increase since March 2021. That category tends to not reflect the current rental market because the CPI looks at the rental prices people are currently paying, not the rental prices landlords are asking for now. That leaves room for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Traders think there's only a 10% chance the Fed will raise rates, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Persons: Stephen Stanley, Gargi Chaudhuri Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Traders Locations: U.S
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That category tends to not reflect the current rental market because the CPI looks at the rental prices people are currently paying, not the rental prices landlords are asking for now. That leaves room for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Traders think there's only a 8% chance the Fed will raise rates, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Persons: Stephen Stanley, Gargi Chaudhuri Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Traders Locations: U.S
Capvision said in a statement soon after the broadcast that it would resolutely abide by national security rules. The CCTV report was the first clear indication of the national security scope of recent police action against several consulting firms. "The state security organ and other authorities will intensify law enforcement against activities that endanger national security, such as illegal consulting," the state-owned Global Times said. The revisions will see all documents, data, materials and items "related to national security and interests" given the same protection as state secrets. The law does not define China's national security or interests.
The iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL) has emerged as the most popular ETF in the U.S. this year. The iShares ETF screens for return on equity, earnings consistency and companies with low debt-to-equity ratios. The QUAL ETF has an expense ratio of 0.15% and a three-star rating from Morningstar. Other notable quality ETFs include the JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF (JQUA) and Invesco S & P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ) . By that measure, quality stocks outperformed in every major market in the first quarter except the U.K., which has less of a tech sector.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi launches slew of infrastructure projects from MMRDA Grounds, at Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (East) on Jan. 19, 2023 in Mumbai, India. After opening a flagship store in Mumbai, CEO Tim Cook will travel to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday. Apple's growth in India is widely seen as a success story by Modi and Indian officials. Flipkart and Amazon are dueling for the top spot in India's e-commerce market, and both face competition from newcomer Meesho. — CNBC's Steve Kovach contributed to this reportWATCH: Tim Cook visits India to open first Apple retail store
How to build a world that looks after everyoneThe conference highlighted the need to embrace equity in all walks of life. Tata Communications’ Genius Wong pledges to build a more inclusive digital economy and work with Georgette Tan (pictured) and the team at United Women Singapore to bridge the digital divide. Adopting Tata Communications' remote broadcast solution helped his organization reduce its normal on-site staff count by over 30% without compromising content delivery. Tata Communications leadership along with SMS Tan Kiat How stand together to build a secure and inclusive digital economy. Find out how Tata Communications is hyperconnecting Formula 1 fans globally to the world-class track-side F1 experience.
The banking crisis hasn't fully played out so it's too soon to call a market bottom, a BlackRock strategist said. In particular, there's "more pain" headed towards smaller banks, Gargi Chaudhuri told Bloomberg TV. She added that looming regulatory changes for the banking system would likely impact stock prices. There's also "more pain to be felt" for smaller banks, the strategists said, adding that this will lead to lower credit growth — and slower economic growth as well. "The bottom line is that we think this is exactly how bear markets end," the chief equity strategist said in a note.
But Chaudhuri believes that stocks won't hit their 2022 lows, and that any slowdown will be mild. On the other hand, the US economy has shown signs of strength so far this year, and Chaudhuri believes that when a slowdown finally comes, it'll be both relatively mild and predictable. Within the bond market, Chaudhuri specifically recommends investors use a barbell strategy to gain exposure to both ends of the yield curve. As for the equity market, Chaudhuri said that from a historical perspective, value stocks generally outperform in a macroeconomic regime characterized by higher inflation and rates. Another benefit of value stocks is that they are currently trading more cheaply than their growth counterparts.
Some also worry that the Fed's messaging is becoming erratic as it reacts to successively weak then strong economic data. BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, was among the slew of big Wall Street names raising their views for how high policy rates could go, with a forecast of 6%. Reuters GraphicsFor some investors, a return to 50 and 75 basis point rate increases may be a bridge too far. "Investors fear the Fed is going to overdo it," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. A spate of hotter than expected data would soon show that the economy was stronger than the Fed had expected.
Markets are jittery now that fears that interest rates will stay higher for longer have been reignited . These are BlackRock's recommendations: Short-duration fixed income: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF, iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF, and iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF. Longer-duration fixed income: iShares TIPS Bond ETF, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and iShares MBS ETF. "While we do not suggest investors abandon stocks all together, in a "higher for longer" environment, we believe investors should gravitate towards value-style stocks," Chaudhuri said.
Investors should stop chasing the rally in tech stocks as chances of the Fed softening its rates policy are slim, according to a top BlackRock iShares strategist. "The tech sector is particularly sensitive to rates and so we expect these recent gains to be transitory," Gargi Chaudhuri said. She also warned high inflation and weak earnings estimates in the tech sector could drag on stocks. "The tech sector, with its high growth rates, is particularly sensitive to rates and so we expect these recent gains to be transitory," she said in a note. Meanwhile, Chaudhuri warned of weak tech earnings estimates as another reason to bow out of the rally.
What’s happening: Investors will get some market direction clarity on Tuesday morning with the release of key inflation data. It’s not all about the Fed: Traders are infatuated with CPI, but it’s likely going to affect markets more than it will future Fed policy. “CPI is the big inflation report that affects markets more than any other,” he said. Even beyond housing, the services sector has seen year-over-year inflation higher than 3.9% every month since March 2021, said Chaudhuri. And as Powell noted in Washington last week, the stickiness of core services inflation is his greatest concern.
With few economic releases and the earnings season starting to wind down, an appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday could be among the newsiest events for markets in the week ahead. The Fed chair is speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at midday Tuesday. If he wanted to walk back anything, he could have done it then," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley. Economists said Friday's surprisingly strong jobs report should encourage the Fed to push forward with planned rate hikes. Earnings, earnings, earnings But there continues to be earnings news.
(Photo by Indranil MUKHERJEE / AFP) (Photo by INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP via Getty Images)On Wednesday, Gautam Adani announced he's scrapping his firm's $2.5 billion equity sale. He withdrew the offering for shares in Adani Enterprises, the flagship of the Indian conglomerate Adani Group, after the stock tanked by nearly 30%. Adani Group has denied the allegations, saying they have "no basis" and stem from an ignorance of Indian law. Adani Enterprises' stock ended higher on Tuesday following news of the fully subscribed $2.5 billion offering. Investors woke up to an ugly picture on Wednesday when Adani Enterprise's stock plunged, falling by as much as 28% and prompting Adani to cancel his equity sale.
Price increases are also moderating: December brought the sixth consecutive monthly fall in consumer price index (CPI) inflation to 6.5%. That’s a change from 2022 when the Fed and the market tended to move in unison. This could mean that the upcoming Fed meeting will generate a lot of market disappointment, said Christian Scherrmann, an economist at DWS Group. The Fed flagged investors’ persistent belief in a pivot away from elevated rates as something that could hurt efforts to restore price stability. But even though the lawsuit drives at the heart of Google’s revenue machine, it could take years to play out.
Investors should avoid being lured back into riskier stocks and funds by this January rally, according to a strategist at BlackRock. Wall Street is off to a solid start in 2023, with all three major averages positive in January. But the rally petered out and the broad market index fell back to a new bear market bottom, below 3,600, in October. .SPX mountain 2022-06-01 The stock market enjoyed a short-lived rally last summer. If Chaudhuri is right, investors may be well served to stick with some of the strategies that worked last year.
Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas, said that she expects inflation to still be above 3% by the end of 2023, driven by services inflation. However, there's also the other part of inflation which is services inflation. Services inflation makes up about 60% or so of the consumer basket," Chaudhuri said. One way to play this is through infrastructure vehicles, like the iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) . The iShares TIPS ETF have a total return of about -10.4% this year.
Work your cash; buy bonds Chaudhuri said it was time to rethink the role of bonds, as a higher-rate environment sees fixed income yields rise. BlackRock also said investors can earn income in the "comparative safety" of cash-like instruments through ultra-short duration securities. Reallocate away from growth stocks Growth stocks, such as Big Tech, were an investor favorite in an era of low rates. But this year, tech stocks have been among the worst-performing sectors . Live with inflation Inflation is set to stick around, given the continued strength coming from services and shelter, according to BlackRock.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNov 3 (Reuters) - Investors trying to navigate this year's relentless interest rate rises have more reasons to play it safe, after a pessimistic message from the U.S. Federal Reserve clouded the outlook for asset prices. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell’s message at Wednesday’s press conference – which followed its fourth straight 75 basis-point rate increase – did little to bolster the case for a less hawkish Fed. Investors are bracing for U.S. employment data on Friday for clues on whether the Fed’s rate hikes have begun to erode the economy’s strength. Signs that inflation is beginning to slow after the Fed’s barrage of rate hikes could bolster the case for a less aggressive monetary policy in coming months. Bartolini is becoming more bullish on mortgage-backed securities, which he expects to benefit from a decline in volatility sparked by smaller rate increases.
Yields popped again on Wednesday , with the 10-year Treasury surging to its highest since July 2008 to 4.136. "For investors, the significant increase in short-term yields has important implications and has provided short-term opportunities that we have not seen in over two decades," said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy. "Unfortunately, the nature of short-term maturities implies these opportunities may be relatively short-lived." iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF: It has exposure to short-term U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). "Short-term maturities with maturities in 6- to 12-months anticipate Fed rate moves."
The three major averages closed higher Friday, with the S & P 500 adding 2.37% to close at 3,752.75. Stovall said the S & P 500 had six positive moves of 1% or more in the last 17 trading days, as of Friday. Earnings, earnings, earnings About 150 S & P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week. Technically speaking Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he is watching a formation in the S & P 500 that could be positive. His first target for the S & P 500 is 3,800.
As of yesterday, the federal funds rate is now in a range of 3.0% to 3.25% after a third consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike and the fifth increase of the year. But should the unemployment rate rise and company earnings fall enough to kick off a deep recession, a markets-friendly central bank could emerge over the next year, according to Kolanovic. In his view, a Fed pivot won't materialize until the unemployment rate gets closer to 5%. How does the Fed's third outsized rate hike impact your outlook for the economy and for your portfolio? US stock futures struggled for direction early Thursday, as the odds of a soft economic landing dwindled following the Fed's rate hike Wednesday.
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