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☆ Morning Bid: Back to basics - double-digit UK inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeWith investors' mood perking up this week, leading to a buoyant rally, UK inflation data, due on Wednesday, takes the spotlight. The reading will likely determine how hawkish the BoE gets in the near term. The consumer price index, already at a decades high, is expected to jump 10% for the month of September. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe cost of living crisis has led to protests and strikes in in European countries, while red-hot inflation has pushed firms eastward in Europe to cut costs. The currency market remains on guard for any sign of another yen intervention as the beaten down currency hovers around the psychological barrier of 150 per dollar.

☆ Back to basics: double-digit UK inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Morning Bid: Earnings vs Rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Oct 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Market tension is building between surprising positivity still coming from the unfolding corporate earnings season and the anxiety in interest rate markets and macro gloom. But earnings may be just a rearview mirror of the economy and the inflation and interest rate backdrop showed little sign of improvement across the western economies. U.S. 10- and 30-year bond yields were now both above 4% this week for the first time in 12 years. Oil prices steadied after Tuesday's slide amid reports U.S. President Joe Biden plans to release more of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

☆ October's wild trading could give way to a new stock rally, as earnings roll out in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But Emanuel sees the chance for a 17% to 20% rally in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 was down about 0.9% for the week, as of Friday afternoon, and it was hovering just above 3,600. S & P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 3.6% for the third quarter, based on actual reports and estimates, according to Refinitiv. Without the boost from more than doubling profits from energy companies, S & P earnings would decline by 3.1%. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Bank of America , Bank of NY Mellon, Charles Schwab 8:30 a.m.

☆ Nasdaq registers lowest close since July 2020; chips stocks fall
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

People are worried about a possible recession," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Analyst now expect year-over-year earnings for S&P 500 companies to have risen 4.1% in the quarter, compared with an increase of 11.1% expected at the beginning of July, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. S&P 500 technology (.SPLRCT) led sector declines along with energy (.SPNY). Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 73 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 461 new lows.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"There is clarity that monetary policy will be restrictive for some time, until there is confidence inflation comes down. The (Federal Open Market) Committee has said policy rates will increase further," Brainard said. But "we also will be learning as we go and that assessment will reflect incoming data and also risks domestically and globally ... The Fed has raised rates rapidly this year, using three-quarter point increments of late to bring the target federal funds rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%. "We're headed for this four and a half percent-ish federal funds rate by March," Evans said, with little time left for data to shift officials' views.

☆ Oil falls by nearly 2% as recession fears outweigh tight supply prospects
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both benchmarks had risen over the previous week largely on expectations of tightening global supply. Oil prices fell amid comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials about rising interest rates and their effect on the economy. Oil prices also struggled under a strengthening U.S. dollar , which rose for a fourth session. The prospect of tightening OPEC+ oil supplies limited declines in prices. read moreThe complicated new sanctions package could end up shutting in considerable supplies of Russia crude, analysts have warned.

☆ Wall Street falls with tech shares, investors assess rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"People are worried about the economy. People are worried about a possible recession," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The U.S. third-quarter earnings season is set to kick off on Friday, with results from some of the major banks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 41.55 points, or 0.14%, to 29,255.24, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 23.05 points, or 0.63%, to 3,616.61 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 95.65 points, or 0.9%, to 10,556.75. Investors also awaited inflation reports through the week, including consumer prices data, which is expected to have likely risen last month.

☆ Fed’s Evans Says Rates Will Need to Remain at Higher Levels
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve will need to hold interest rates high enough to slow the economy after it lifts them through the end of this year and into early next year, a central bank official said Monday. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said in remarks at an economics conference Monday that he expects the central bank’s benchmark federal-funds rate will need to rise to slightly more than 4.5% by early next year and then remain at that level for some time.

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. "There's not really a lot of difference" at this point among Fed officials' views about appropriate policy, Evans said. Evans called that "a pretty good looking soft landing." "While this does represent a noticeably softer labor market when compared with today's, these certainly are not recession-like numbers," Evans said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMajor U.S. banks are set to kick off the third-quarter earnings season in earnest on Friday, amid anxiety about the impact of inflationary pressures, rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties on their profit. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on Monday joined the chorus of other central bankers backing the Fed's attempt to lower inflation without a sharp rise in unemployment even as it continues raising interest rates. read more read moreAt 9:53 a.m. Tech behemoths Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) fell 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively, weighing down the S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT). The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and 22 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 33 new highs and 200 new lows.

☆ Fed’s Charles Evans Says Rates Will Need to Remain at Higher Levels
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve will need to hold interest rates high enough to slow the economy after it lifts them through the end of this year and into early next year, a central bank official said Monday. But Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that after raising rates to around slightly more than 4.5% by next March, it would be appropriate for the central bank to pause rate rises to see the effects of those increases.

☆ Supply chain struggles continue to weigh on inflation, says Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSupply chain struggles continue to weigh on inflation, says Chicago Fed President Charles EvansChicago Fed President, Charles Evans, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the general trajectory of inflation, expectations for upcoming inflation report findings, and ongoing supply and demand struggles.

☆ Fed's Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the central bank is holding fast in its commitment to bring down inflation even if it means people losing their jobs. "Price stability sets the stage for stronger growth in the future." "But price stability makes the future better." Evans said he sees some signs that inflation is letting up as supply chain pressures ease. Evans is a non-voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and has said he is leaving his position early in 2023.

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar feeds on stress
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

And as a fourth 75 basis-point Fed rate hike is now fully priced yet again, the dollar's DXY index climbed again - and traders started to eye year-end trading stress too. read more read moreWith last week's warning from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) ringing in the ears, the chip sector shivered into the new week. The measures could amount to the biggest shift in U.S. policy on exporting technology to China since the 1990s. Returning after a week of closures, the broad Shanghai stock index was down 1.6%, Hong Kong was down almost 3% and the offshore yuan weakened against the dollar. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ‘This is serious’: JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns U.S. likely to tip into recession in 6 to 9 months
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Dimon said in June that he was preparing the bank for an economic "hurricane" caused by the Federal Reserve and Russia's war in Ukraine. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday warned that a "very, very serious" mix of headwinds was likely to tip both the U.S. and global economy into recession by the middle of next year. "These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they're likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now," Dimon said. His comments come at a time of growing concern about the prospect of an economic recession as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks raise interest rates to combat soaring inflation. Speaking to CNBC last month, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said he's feeling apprehensive about the U.S. central bank going too far, too fast in its bid to tackle high inflation rates.

☆ Oil eases as recession fears offset tight supply prospects
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures fell 96 cents, or 1%, to $96.96 a barrel by 11:31 a.m. EDT (1531 GMT). EU sanctions on Russian crude and oil products will take effect in December and February respectively. read moreThe complicated new sanctions package could end up shutting in considerable supplies of Russia crude, analysts have warned. "A recessionary economic outlook will lead to lower oil demand," Fitch Ratings said on Monday. Those political factors could alter supply patters and cause greater price volatility, Fitch said.

☆ Dollar dishes the pain as selloff rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. "The market wouldn't mind some stability, it has become a little bit unpredictable," said Barings Investment Institute's Chief European strategist, Agnes Belaisch. "We are facing difficult economic times," Truss, who only took over as UK Prime Minister this month, said on local BBC radio. U.S. GDP fell at an unrevised 0.6% annualized rate last quarter, the government said in its third estimate of GDP. read moreRecession angst combined with supply issues and the strong dollar meant oil prices see-sawed after gaining more than $3 in the prior session.

☆ Dollar dishes the pain as new selloff takes hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The STOXX 600 share index (.STOXX) dropped nearly 2% from the open, while both the euro and the pound , hammered over the last week by UK debt concerns, slumped 1%. /FRXGovernment bond markets were braced for German data expected to show consumer prices rising there at the fastest rate since the 1950s. Gilt selling also resumed a day after the Bank of England dramatically intervened in the UK market to try and quell the storm around the government's spending plans. Reuters GraphicsBIT OF A MESSZooming back out, it was still about the dollar which has crushed currencies virtually everywhere this year. S&P 500 futures pointed to Wall Street falling more than 1.2% later with more Fed policymakers also due to speak.

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates expeditiously to address very high, persistent inflation, and will likely get U.S. short-term borrowing costs to where they need to be by early next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Wednesday. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level in about 12-1/2 years on Tuesday as investors girded for higher interest rates that could possibly remain for longer than anticipated as Federal Reserve officials held firm in their hawkish stance. The Federal Reserve has aggressively hiked interest rates by 3 percentage points this year, taking its target range to 3.00%-3.25%. It carried out its third consecutive 75 basis point increase last week and signaled that rates are likely to rise to the 4.25%-4.5% range by the end of the year. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Dhara Ranasinghe, Jorgelina Do Rosario and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Gimme Shelter
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. read moreBut with the pound falling anew against the dollar on the credit rating and IMF warnings, the real problem is in UK government bonds, or gilts. read moreWith Wall Street stocks hitting a new low for the year on Tuesday, global shares sank to two-year lows on Wednesday. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and a host of other Fed speakers are in the diary again for later on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Higher interest rates are coming, and they are likely to remain in place for a long time. The Fed last week raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, the third consecutive hike of that size. 'RESET' UNDERWAYTo some degree, in fact, the thrust of Fed policy is to force just such a reevaluation. According to one index maintained by the Chicago Fed, overall financial conditions remain below their historical average, or slightly on the "loose" side, a signal that Fed officials may still have, as many of them put it, "work to do." Rising interest rates paid on safe investments like short-term U.S. Treasuries help that effort by changing the prices of a broad array of other assets.

☆ Morning Bid: Mini budget, major turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Henry NichollsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaWhat was meant to be a mini-budget is still thundering across financial markets. read moreAsian stocks markets and currencies extended their downward journey, burdened by the gloomy growth outlook, while dollar bulls pushed the currency to yet another two-decade high. "Indeed a recession in Europe in particular is already well anticipated, with 92% of our European Fund Manager survey respondents expecting one in the coming 12 months," BofA said. Elsewhere, the energy crisis in Europe intensified as European authorities investigated what Germany, Denmark and Sweden said were attacks which had caused major leaks into the Baltic Sea from two Russian gas pipelines. The energy crisis between Europe and Moscow has already battered major Western economies, sent gas prices surging and sparked a hunt for alternative supplies.

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said on Wednesday that volatility in markets can create additional restrictiveness in financial conditions. "It is a case that financial market volatility can add to additional financial restrictiveness. So anything around the world in terms of policy or developments like Russia's invasion of Ukraine can add to additional restrictiveness." "We just really need to get inflation in check," Evans said. Relief on inflation could also come from improvements in supply, he said, and giving him some comfort is the fact that inflation expectations are "relatively consistent" with the Fed's 2% inflation goal.

☆ Wall Street keeps selling as world assets fail to recover
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 27, 2022. The Bank of England said late on Monday it would not hesitate to change interest rates and was monitoring markets "very closely." U.S. stocks mostly faltered after a morning bounce, with the S&P 500 hitting a two-year intraday low. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) reversed early gains on Tuesday, falling about 0.3% to a near two-year low early Tuesday afternoon. MSCI's broadest index of Asia shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) hit a fresh two-year low and was flat on the day.

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