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☆ Further stock market advance depends on rally broadening out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The advance in those indexes, particularly the S & P 500, has been very uneven, even with last week's broad rally. Lowry Research analysts noted that investors simply in the S & P 500, or in tech stocks, were clearly in an up market. Lowry noted that 48.2% of all operating-company only stocks are 20% or more below their 52-week highs, which Lowry and others define as bear market territory. That's far worse than the 32% that were in bear market territory on February 2, when the S & P 500 was at a new high for the year. "Bull markets are hard-pressed to last when the number of stocks entering 'bear market territory' grows," Lowry noted.

Persons: You'd, Chadha, SPX, Venu Krishna, Lowry, Russell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Street Journal, Lowry Research, LPL

☆ HDFC Bank vs. SBI? This strategist names his favorite stock pick among Indian banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Despite the benefits of heavy deposit flows and strong deposit growth in a slow growth environment, State Bank of India (SBI) has seen its stock price fall year-to-date due to its controversial exposure to Adani. The consensus price target of all analysts compiled by FactSet also points toward 717 rupees a share, which represents a 36% upside. SBIN-IN HDFCBANK-IN 1Y line SBI shares are also traded over the counter in the U.S. and the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges. HDFC over SBI If taking a more constructive long-term view on Indian banks as a whole, Chadha prefers HDFC Bank over SBI because it is merging with HDFC — which he describes as having "huge implications" — creating an almost $300 billion financial behemoth. HDFC Bank shares are up 4% this year and analysts' price target points to a further 13% upside over the next 12 months.

☆ Strategist names his favorite stock pick among Indian banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategist names his favorite stock pick among Indian banksGurmeet Chadha, managing partner and CIO of Complete Circle, explains why his favorite stock pick among Indian banks.

☆ HDFC and HDFC Bank merger will have 'huge implications,' says wealth management firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHDFC and HDFC Bank merger will have 'huge implications,' says wealth management firmGurmeet Chadha of Complete Circle discusses whether he prefers HDFC Bank or State Bank of India.

☆ US consumer sentiment deteriorates in March, inflation expectations retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummarySummary Companies Consumer sentiment slips in MarchInflation expectations easeManufacturing production edges up 0.1% in FebruaryWASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, but households expected inflation to subside over the next year and beyond, which could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it confronts financial market instability. The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.4, down from 67 in the prior month. While the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, economists expect tighter financial conditions will undercut consumption and push the economy into recession. A separate report from the Conference Board showed its Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, dropped for an 11th straight month in February. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%.

But the market turmoil led its flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) to abandon a $2.5 billion secondary share offering on Wednesday, prompting concerns at lenders. 1 lender, SBI says the bank has about 270 billion rupees ($3.3 billion) in loans to Adani Group. Bank debt forms 38% of the total debt of 2.1 trillion rupees at the top five Adani companies, according to a Jefferies report. Senior executives at six other Indian lenders, with exposure to Adani companies, told Reuters they had also decided to tighten the credit approval process for Adani. India's central bank has asked local banks for details of their exposure to Adani companies, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing government and banking sources.

☆ Instant View: India's Adani calls off $2.5 bln share sale
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - India's Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) on Wednesday called off its $2.5 billion share sale, citing market conditions, a week after a U.S. short-seller's critical report unleashed a rout in the wider Adani Group's stocks. COMMENTARYDEVEN CHOKSEY, MANAGING DIRECTOR, KR CHOKSEY SHARES AND SECURITIES"In the given situation, when the entire environment has become negative, it is good that the share sale is withdrawn. GURMEET CHADHA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AND MANAGEMENT PARTNER OF COMPLETE CIRCLE WEALTH"It was the right thing to do. It must have been a hard decision but it was the right thing to do. To go through this exercise of a share sale and to call it off raises more questions."

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ Top Wall Street strategists see another roller-coaster year ahead with minimal returns for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A brutal year for stocks has made Wall Street strategists cautious about what's ahead as most are forecasting a similarly bumpy 2023 with minimal returns. The S & P 500 could tumble more than 16% from Wednesday's close to 3,250 before a strong rally to end 2023 higher. He sees the S & P 500 dropping 20% to the 3,000-3,300 level by the first quarter of next year. The firm noted that S & P 500 companies' third-quarter reports showed margins contracted year over year for the first time since the pandemic. If the economy goes into a recession, Goldman said, the S & P 500 would decline to 3,150.

☆ DEUTSCHE BANK: Here's a point-by-point look at how stocks would perform as the recession sets in, and what investors should buy to profit as a recovery begins
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank says the current bear market rally will probably last into 2023. "High initial valuations and our expected earnings decline (-12% vs an average -15%), point to a -33% decline (S&P 500 3250)," Chadha wrote in a recent note. "MCG & Tech stocks relative to the S&P 500 have underperformed to well below the bottom of their medium-term up trend channel," he said. "We think Tech stocks can bounce tactically through the Q1 squeeze which in our view will be driven by falling rates and rising positioning." Chadha says financials and consumer cyclicals should also have a good run during the bear market rally.

☆ 'Willow' review: Warwick Davis returns in Lucasfilm's series sequel for Disney+
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Review Brian Lowry | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Setting that aside, a Disney+ revival series isn’t without its charms, in a more contemporary narrative that brings back Warwick Davis while focusing on the next generation. The latter were played by Val Kilmer and Joanne Whalley, respectively, who as an off-screen bonus got married after the film. Jonathan Kasdan (who also worked on “Solo”) serves as showrunner, collaborating with four directors who each oversaw back-to-back episodes. While that combination doesn’t add up into making “Willow” significantly worthier of the “beloved” label than its late-’80s predecessor, consumed on its own unpretentious terms, it’s easy enough to like. “Willow” premieres November 30 on Disney+.

☆ The small but mighty love for ‘Willow’ that led to a shiny new series
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Dan Heching | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

It’s a refreshing turn against recent trends that a cult classic without the sizable built-in fanbase of, say, a “Star Wars” or Marvel property would receive the fancy reboot treatment. “You could be walking around a convention floor, and in a sea of Harley Quinns, you’ll spot a Willow,” Delaney observed. High hopesThe arrival of the new 8-episode series comes with high hopes from the small but mighty fanbase. Bob Dolman, who wrote the screenplay for the original film, also acted as supervising producer on the first episode. Kilmer’s ex-wife Joanne Whalley, who he met on the original film, will be back in the series as warrior Sorsha.

☆ Deutsche Bank maps out specifically how stock market will trade for the next 12 months as recession hits
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The current bear market rally could continue into the new year before "following the typical recession playbook," according to Deutsche Bank. In the third quarter, Chadha said he sees the the S & P 500 dropping to 3,250. Putting these together points to a -33% decline" from the S & P 500's record high, he said. Deutsche sees the rebound being led by financial stocks, tech and consumer cyclicals. "With the S & P 500 having rallied recently by around 12% from its mid-October lows, our measure of aggregate equity positioning has risen only modestly and remains very low (12th percentile)," he said.

☆ Analysis: Bank of England's recession warning turns spotlight to UK budget plan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be a longer and shallower economic contraction than the ones that followed the COVID-19 lockdowns and the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But the backdrop of high inflation this time is limiting the policy options available to the government. Hunt has warned of tough decisions on taxes and spending as he prepares to announce the new government's first budget programme on Nov. 17. "This is not a recession we should be offsetting with lower interest rates and expansionary fiscal policy," Chadha said. Additional reporting by David Milliken;Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Jon BoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

And futures now assume the inflation fight will fall solely on the BoE and expect it to triple policy rates to as high as 5.8-6% next year. On Tuesday, the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies said Kwarteng needed 62 billion pounds ($68.22 billion) of spending cuts to keep public debt sustainable over time, with borrowing this year on course for 194 billion pounds and still above 100 billion by 2026/27 - over 70 billion higher than OBR forecasts in March. QE involves the purchase of mostly gilts from commercial banks in return for interest-bearing reserves at the central bank. And, unlike other major central banks, the BoE policy rate itself is the rate paid on those bank reserves. NIESR last year urged a solution to the problem whereby Treasury and central bank reduced the maturity mismatch by swapping longer-dated gilts back to Treasury to cut duration of its portfolios.

☆ Amazon, Microsoft and Google face UK probe over dominance in cloud computing
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chesnot | Getty ImagesBritish media regulator Ofcom is investigating Amazon, Microsoft and Google's tight grip on the cloud computing industry. Amazon, Microsoft and Google were not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC. It also plans to investigate other digital markets, including personal messaging and virtual assistants like Amazon's Alexa, over the next year. "The way we live, work, play and do business has been transformed by digital services," Ofcom's Chadha said in a statement Thursday. Cloud competition

☆ US economic barometer drops for sixth month in a row, potentially ‘signaling a recession’
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York, NY CNN —A comprehensive gauge on the health of the US economy dropped in August for the sixth straight month, reinforcing concerns about a possible recession. The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index for the United States dipped last month. “Recession dynamics are building steam,” Gurleen Chadha, US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Thursday. However, many economists say the jobs market remains too strong for the US economy to be in a recession. During recessions, businesses resort to widespread layoffs, and economic reports indicate that is not happening right now.

☆ Fund manager says he likes these Indian banks
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFund manager says he likes these Indian banksGurmeet Chadha of Complete Circle says the banking sector tends do well when interest rates rise.

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