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☆ Billionaire investor John Paulson says the Fed can 'move aggressively' on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire investor and hedge fund veteran John Paulson said Friday that he would like to see the Federal Reserve start big with its rate cuts. The central bankers seem to be deciding between a cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points. One asset class that often rises when the Federal Reserve cuts rate is gold, and Paulson is a longtime bull on the yellow metal. Paulson is a veteran figure in the hedge fund world and is perhaps most famous for betting against the housing market ahead of the 2007 crash. Paulson announced in 2020 that he was converting his hedge fund into a family office.

Persons: John Paulson, Paulson, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Treasurys Organizations: Federal Reserve, Paulson, Co, Mines, U.S

Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 20 basis points this week, with 30-year rates now near 5.7%, according to Zillow data. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates have inched down this week and are now hovering near 5.7%, according to Zillow data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Because markets are already anticipating that the Fed will lower rates, mortgage rates might not drop much in response to a Fed rate cut.

Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ Gold inches higher as investors eye U.S. data for rate cues
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could discourage the Federal Reserve from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week. CPI data showed no major inflation spikes, which is supporting gold prices to hold above $2,500 and suggesting no immediate changes to Fed policy, Wong added. Palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,021.84, its highest since July 8, following comments on export regulations from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Persons: Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, Price, Wong, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Asia Pacific, Traders, U.S, PPI, Reserve, West Locations: U.S, Moscow

☆ Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations. Meanwhile, investors dashed their hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. AdvertisementThe surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Josh Jamner, Jack McIntyre Organizations: Fed, Service, Dow Jones, ClearBridge Investments, Brandywine Global Locations: Here's

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are down slightly and are hovering around 5.75%, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates have inched down this week and are hovering just above 5%, according to Zillow data. Last month, 30-year refinance rates averaged 6.59%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.90%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.

Persons: they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, They'll, refinance Organizations: Reserve, Zillow, Fed Locations: Chevron

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders brace for August consumer inflation report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night ahead of the August consumer inflation report due Wednesday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both dipped 0.1%. Traders are anticipating a key economic report Wednesday morning: August's consumer price index. The CPI report and Thursday's producer price index could help determine the size of a widely expected rate cut at the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Sept. 18. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 31% likelihood of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, CME's, Kristina Hooper, Hooper Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Nvidia, JPMorgan, CPI, Federal

☆ Don't get your hopes up about the housing market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( Eliza Relman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

One of the most painful ways higher interest rates have impacted Americans is through higher housing costs. The combination of high borrowing costs and skyrocketing home prices and rents — caused by a housing shortage — has created an enduring housing affordability crisis. On the one hand, lower borrowing costs would likely make mortgages cheaper for buyers and encourage builders to construct desperately needed new homes. But rate cuts would also spur new home construction, as builders respond to higher demand and lower borrowing costs for acquisition and construction loans. On top of high borrowing costs, builders are struggling with a severe shortage of construction workers and high building material costs.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Daryl Fairweather, Wells, underbuilding, Ben Metcalf, Metcalf Organizations: Service, Jackson Hole , Wyoming ., Business, Bank of England, Terner Center, Housing Innovation, UC Berkeley Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Americans just got the biggest confirmation yet of an interest rate cut next month — but the job market hangs in the balance
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He offered details on the Fed's thinking as the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaches in September, with all eyes on the first interest rate cut since the pandemic began. AdvertisementIt's all but certain that the Fed will cut rates in September. That leaves the big question of how much — not if — the Fed will cut rates, and the upcoming jobs report will likely shed some light on that question. "Today, the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. "But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, precarity, Austan Goolsbee, we've Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, CME, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Democratic, Chicago Fed

☆ The Fed has redeemed itself after an 'egregious' post-COVID inflation error, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed

☆ The one question on everyone’s mind about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ ‘The time has come’: The Fed just sent a crucial message about its next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And so does the broader US economy: Economic growth this year has been solid and the Atlanta Fed is projecting that growth hasn’t slipped. “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not getting soft. A slowing job market is also playing a role in nudging the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Translation: The recent weakness in the job market could result in American shoppers curbing their spending more than expected. A big question mark is the future of America’s job market, which is a key driver of the US economy.

Persons: Washington CNN —, “, Jerome Powell, ”, “ Powell, Seema Shah, hasn’t, ” Tom Porcelli, it’s, Powell, cooldown, ” Powell, aren’t, they’re, —, “ There’s, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Markets, Asset Management, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, CNN, Walmart, America’s Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, nudging

☆ Home Depot may need an interest rate cut to boost its sales
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That waiting game has only intensified with a potential interest rate cut in sight. "What our customers tell their pros is, 'Everything I read tells me interest rates will be lower in three to six months,'" McPhail said. An interest rate cut could help move the needle for Home Depot as sales slow. The Federal Reserve has dropped hints that an interest rate cut could come soon. Even with an interest rate cut, Decker said, "people still might pause a little bit until some of this gets sorted out."

Persons: Richard McPhail, McPhail, Ted Decker, Jerome Powell, Decker, —, Diana Olick Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Depot, Mortgage News Locations: El Cerrito , California

As the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to decrease further. This would likely remove a substantial amount of upward pressure off of mortgage rates. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 5.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.

Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Zillow Locations: Chevron

Mortgage rates are down today compared to where they've been in recent weeks, with 30-year mortgage rates hovering in the low 6% range, according to Zillow data. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.63%, a 36-basis-point decrease from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates have been elevated for most of 2024, but they've been trending down in recent months. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.

Persons: they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: July's, CPI, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ Nvidia swings again — plus, an industrial name tied to the data center boom gets an heir-apparent
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.

Persons: Jim Cramer, It's, Blackwell, Nvidia's, Eaton, Paulo Ruiz, Ruiz, Craig Arnold, Arnold, We're, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Nvidia, UBS, Club, Fed, PPI, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: York

☆ Deutsche Bank says Eli Lilly stock is a buy — in line with our rating on shares
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Deutsche Bank upgraded Eli Lilly to a buy from hold rating on Monday after a blowout quarterly earnings report last week. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Eli Lilly, We've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, The Club, Management, Amazon Web Services, Deutsche Bank, Novo Nordisk

☆ Yen slips, markets brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. "It's more a case of market squaring up a little bit ahead of the U.S. inflation data," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The dollar was trading at 146.87 yen , up 0.2% from late U.S. levels on Friday. The Aussie was barely up at $0.6577 on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar stayed below last week's three-week high of $0.6035. Implied volatility on the yen, measured in yen options, has also subsided.

Persons: Bank of Japan's hawkishness, Jackson, Christopher Wong, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, OCBC Bank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank, Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: U.S, Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Falling commodity prices are indicating there is trouble brewing with the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Commodity prices have tumbled over the past month, signaling underlying weakness in the global economy despite the U.S. stock market bouncing back from recession fears. But commodity markets may be telling a different story about the global economy. The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund is down more than 7% over the past month, while crude oil futures dropped 14% from July 5 through Aug. 5. @HG.1 YTD mountain Copper futures, YTD Weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy, is weighing on copper and oil in particular, Melek said. OPEC on Monday lowered its global oil demand growth forecast this year by 135,000 barrels per day as expectations in China have softened.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Bart Melek, DBB @HG, We've, Melek, I'm Organizations: U.S, Investors, Invesco DB Base Metals, Wolfe Research, TD Securities, DBB, Metals, Copper, CNBC, Global, Beijing, European Union, World Trade Organization, Federal Reserve, Securities Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Oil holds on to last week's gains buoyed by Mideast tensions, economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Monday, holding on to most of last week's more than 3% gains, supported by geopolitical tensions and better economic data. Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Monday, holding on to most of last week's more than 3% gains, supported by geopolitical tensions and better economic data. "Traders remain mindful of simmering tensions in the Middle East," ANZ analysts said in a note. Brent ended last week up more than 3.5% on the week, while WTI gained more than 4%, on supportive economic data and increased hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut. China's consumer prices rose faster than expected in July, and U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

Persons: Ismail Haniyeh, Fuad Shukr, Israel, Brent, WTI Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, ANZ, Gaza Civil Emergency Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Iran, Gaza, U.S

☆ Trump, Vance double down on call for presidential influence on Fed policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe president has no direct control over interest ratesAs it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House. Last month, Trump said that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down." Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Raedle, Brett House, Trump, Fed Trump, Jerome Powell, Trump's, reappoint Powell, Powell, Greg McBride, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, White, Fed, Columbia Business School, Reserve Act, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Markets, U.S, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fox Business, Barclays Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Chicago

☆ After a busy week of stock trades, we're looking ahead to some key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Looking back, quarterly earnings also played a key role in big stock moves for the portfolio. Looking ahead, we'll see an update on some key inflation data, plus a closer look at the state of the housing and retail sectors. ET: Producer Price Index Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Pandora (PANDY), Nu Holdings (NU), Sea Limited (SE) Wednesday, August 14 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index Earnings: Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), Cisco (CSCO), UBS (UBS), JD.com (JD) Thursday, August 15 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Eli Lilly, Walt, Jim Cramer, we've, JD.com, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Walt Disney, Microsoft, Ford Motor, Wynn Resorts, DuPont, Devices, Procter, Gamble, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Federal, Traders, Sun Life, Nu Holdings, Sea, Tencent Holdings, Cisco, UBS, Philadelphia Fed, Walmart, Materials, Deere & Co, Ross Stores, Lenovo, Housing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Dover, Wells Fargo, Nextracker, Eaton

☆ Taylor Swift concerts and the Olympics could lead to a fresh surge in global inflation, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Global inflation could see a resurgence as the Olympics and Taylor Swift concerts drive demand. Mega-events tend to spike hotel and transportation costs, UBS said. Inflation in Europe and the US has cooled, but central bankers are still wary. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementGlobal inflation could see a fresh resurgence thanks to a spending spree fueled by Taylor Swift concerts and the Olympics, UBS said.

Persons: Taylor Swift, — Organizations: UBS, Service, Olympics, Business Locations: Europe

☆ Here’s who to blame — and who not to blame — for the slumping US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Gross domestic product for the second quarter of this year came in better than expected, with the economy growing at an annualized rate close to 3%. Republicans and DemocratsIt’s not fair to lay all the blame for the state of the economy on one party when both have contributed. While neither can be fully blamed for the pandemic itself, their handling of it has had significant ramifications for the economy. Oh, here’s an idea, let’s just leave interest rates really high.” That’s not to say that politicians necessarily wanted to make Americans’ lives more difficult either. Yet all the calculus they perform to determine what the ideal interest rate level is at any given point in time is complicated by fiscal spending that’s entirely out of their control.

Persons: Democrats It’s, Trump, Biden, —, It’s, , Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell “, “ He’s, let’s, ” That’s, don’t, they’ve, They’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gross, Republicans, Democrats, MIT, State, , Massachusetts Democratic, Fed Locations: New York, Ukraine, , Massachusetts

☆ The yen carry trade unwind: A big complication for global markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.

Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ The latest sell-off may be the beginning of the end for the tech bubble, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The AI-fueled tech bubble could be approaching its end date, according to Paul Dietrich. The market strategist pointed to similarities between the recent tech sell-off and the dot-com crash. He pointed to the similarities between the dot-com crash and the latest drop in the stock market. AdvertisementThe flow of "smart money" in the market also suggests more downside could be on the way for tech stocks, Dietrich noted. Advertisement"What kind of evidence does one need to see that we are moving into a business cycle recession," Dietrich said.

Persons: Paul Dietrich, —, Dietrich, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang Organizations: Service, Riley Wealth, Nasdaq, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Artificial Intelligence

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