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Two of them - Norway and United Kingdom - delivered a total of 50 basis points of rate hikes in the lowest such tally since January. Turkey delivered a super-sized 750 bps rate rise in August while Russia lifted its benchmark by 350 bps and Thailand added 25 bps. "Major central banks will maintain a restrictive policy stance through 2024," said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president strategy and research at Moody's. "Significant easing by emerging market central banks is unlikely with advanced economy central banks still battling elevated inflation, and uncertainty around the U.S. interest rate outlook." Emerging markets interest ratesReporting by Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jason Lee, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Costa, Madhavi Bokil, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Norway, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Central, United Kingdom, Australia, New, China, Europe, Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Thailand

☆ German exports fall less-than-expected 0.9% in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 4 (Reuters) - German exports fell a less-than-expected 0.9% in July from a month earlier as global demand continued to falter, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. "Trade is no longer the strong resilient growth driver of the German economy that it used to be, but rather a drag," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING. Imports rose 1.4% on the month, the data showed. German export expectations have deteriorated slightly due to weak foreign demand, an Ifo survey showed in August. "As long as the global economic environment remains weak, German exports will also remain depressed," said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank.

Persons: Phil Noble, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Bastian Hepperle, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, Thomas Gitzel, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Alex Richardson, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, ING . Supply, European Union, VP Bank, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, China, Hauck

Specifically, she outlined puzzlement at why the inflation-adjusted risk-free rates priced by markets - real Overnight Index Swap yields from one to 10 years - had subsided again since the last ECB rate hike in July - back to where they were in February when ECB policy rates were just 2.5%. Long-term real yields from benchmark German government bond markets are positive again this year for the first time in almost a decade. But they have fallen almost 20bp from just before the last ECB rate hike to just above 0.1% now. Minutes released today from the last ECB meeting suggest the council is still undecided about its next step this month, but many market analysts see the tension building. ECB chart from Isabel Schnabel speech on rising market inflation premiaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, It's, Carsten Brzeski, Josie Kao Organizations: Central Bank, disinflation, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ING, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, U.S

With average house prices having surged 25% during the COVID-19 pandemic, higher interest rates and higher living costs in a struggling economy have driven many to rent while they anticipate house prices will fall. All but one predicted prices would fall this year. House prices were forecast to stagnate next year, an upgrade compared to the 2.0% fall predicted three months ago. That comes after many years of close to zero and negative policy interest rates following the global financial crisis and during the pandemic. Eleven of 14 respondents said rental affordability would worsen over the coming year.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Sebastian Schnejdar, Indradip Ghosh, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Housing, ING, European Central Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe's

☆ Market reactions to Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, “, ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO

The Ifo institute said on Friday that its business climate index stood at 85.7, down from 87.4 in July. Reuters Graphics"The German economy is not out of the woods yet," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. The economy then posted zero growth in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, separate data from the statistics office showed on Friday. The Ifo survey showed sentiment among German managers had become more pessimistic across all sectors in August. The Ifo survey chimed with flash PMI data released on Wednesday, which showed that German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August.

Persons: Annegret, Clemens Fuest, Christian Lindner, Klaus Wohlrabe, Claus Niegsch, Niegsch, Andrew Kenningham, Carsten Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Mark Potter, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, . Finance, DZ Bank, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BERLIN, Europe

☆ Germany is struggling to move away from its ‘sick man of Europe’ image
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Germany was first described with that moniker in 1998 as the country navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy. The issues weighing on Germany's economy can be separated into "two very separate battles," Stefan Kooths, research director for business cycles and growth at the Kiel Institute for World Economy, told CNBC. "It is a different sickness [compared to] 20 years ago," Brzeski told CNBC. Energy obstaclesLike most of Europe, Germany's energy prices have been volatile following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Many Germany-headquartered businesses are doing well globally, but they are struggling with operations in their own country," Siegfried Russwurm, head of the German Industry Federation, told CNBC in June.

Persons: DANIEL ROLAND, aren't, it's, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Jasmin Groeschl, Stefan Kooths, Carsten Brzeski, China's, Brzeski, Groeschl, Joerg Kraemer, Kooths, Siegfried Russwurm Organizations: Frankfurt Cathedral, AFP, Getty, International Monetary Fund, Berenberg, CNBC, Europe, Allianz, Kiel Institute, World, ING Research, German Industry Federation Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, France, China, Kiel, Ukraine

☆ Why some are calling the German economy 'the sick man of Europe'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.

Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, ”, Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France

☆ Analysis: ECB is on back foot and for once it's down to Germany
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. This is forcing a change of tune at the ECB -- from ruling out a pause in its steepest and longest streak of interest rate hikes to openly talking about one as soon as next month. Higher borrowing costs hurt manufacturers particularly hard because they depend on investment and no euro zone country has a larger industrial sector than Germany. "They've made a mistake in accentuating underlying inflation too much," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro for ING Research, said. And ECB board member Fabio Panetta then made the case for "persistence" in keeping rates high rather than raising them further.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Richard Portes, It's, Emperor Nicholas I of Russia, Ralph Solveen, Portes, They've, Carsten Brzeski, Ricardo Reis, Fabio Panetta, Francesco Canepa, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, London Business School, Berlin, ING Research, London School of Economics, ABN, AMRO, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, Greece, Italy, China, Russia, United States, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Europe, Ottoman Empire, Ukraine

☆ ECB is on back foot and for once it's down to Germany
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

☆ Analysis: China's importance to German exporters on the wane
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's emergence as a market economy in the 2000s provided a massive boost to German companies and has proved a big contributor to the overall health of the German economy since. That China is increasingly able to produce goods it previously bought from Germany is weighing on German exports, Brzeski noted. However, the dependence of many companies on the Chinese market will no longer be so visible in export figures, but in their balance sheets," Stamer said. For example, many German carmakers are increasingly producing locally for the Chinese market. Weaker demand from China has had a strong impact on the German manufacturing sector.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Joerg Kraemer, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Vincent Stamer, Stamer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Reuters Graphics Germany, Kiel Institute, PMI, Thomson Locations: Bremerhaven, Germany, China, BERLIN, Berlin, Beijing, U.S, United States

☆ German economy faces uphill climb as industrial output falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, July 7 (Reuters) - A swift economic recovery for Germany appeared less likely on Friday as data showed a surprise fall in industrial production. Output fell by 0.2% in May compared with the previous month, the federal statistical office said. The industrial production data was a reminder of the uphill climb in Europe's biggest economy if it is to shake off recession, after a surprise increase in May orders fuelled some optimism on Thursday. "We may just see stagnation in the second quarter, but much more likely a renewed decline in economic output," he added. The office offers a breakdown of the data on industrial production on its website.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Jens, Oliver Niklasch, Anna Mackenzie, Rene Wagner, Rachel More, Miranda Murray Organizations: Reuters, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Germany, Ukraine

☆ German inflation bucks downward trend in June with higher-than-expected rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Maria Martinez | Thomson Reuters | Maria Martinez Is A Reuters Correspondent In Berlin Covering German Economics | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

French and euro zone inflation data is due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect euro zone inflation to fall to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May. "The June figures in Germany only interrupt the downward trend in the inflation rate and do not mark its end," said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank. Non-harmonized consumer prices rose 6.4% in June year-on-year, following a 6.1% rise in the previous month. The year-on-year rebound in German inflation midway through the second quarter is almost exclusively due to base effects from last year's temporarily-reduced rail fare, said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Persons: Analysts, Ralph Solveen, year's, Claus Vistesen, Carsten Brzeski, Commerzbank's Solveen, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Miranda Murray, Angus MacSwan, Conor Humphries Organizations: Union, Reuters, Commerzbank, Pantheon, European Central Bank, ING, Economists, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Spain, Italy, Germany

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

☆ Rate cuts, hikes and pauses: The world's central banks just made very different decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

From hawkish pauses to rate hikes and dovish tones, the world's biggest central banks last week struck very different tones on monetary policy. The European Central Bank on Thursday hiked rates and surprised markets with a worsening inflation outlook, which led investors to price in even more rate increases in the euro zone. This followed a Federal Reserve meeting where the central bank decided to pause rate hikes. Just days before that, China's central bank lowered its key medium-term lending rates to stimulate the economy. In Japan, where inflation is above target, the central bank has left its ultra-loose policy unchanged.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski, —, Erik Nielsen, UniCredit Organizations: European Central Bank, Reserve, ING Germany, CNBC, ECB, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Europe, Asia

That is likely to keep the ECB on the tightening path, particularly after it failed to predict the current bout of high inflation and began raising rates later than many global peers last year. Economists polled by Reuters expect another move of the same magnitude in July before the ECB pauses for the rest of 2023. Instead, euro zone rate-setters have focused on actual economic data that has been painting a mixed picture. Two quarters of contraction in industrial powerhouse Germany dragged the euro zone into a shallow recession last winter and the economy is likely to eke out only modest growth this year. As a result, economists expect the ECB to send out a more balanced message about the outlook than at recent meetings, when it stressed the need to raise rates further to cool demand.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski, Christine Lagarde, Berenberg, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: ECB, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, ING, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Germany, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, ECB's

☆ ECB to hike rates in June and July to break sticky inflation - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Price pressures and inflation expectations have moderated, but not by enough to deter the ECB from continuing its most aggressive tightening cycle on record. The ECB slowed the pace of its rate rises to 25 basis points at its May meeting after a flurry of 75 and 50 basis point moves. About three-quarters of economists, 43 of 59, forecast another 25 basis point rate hike in July, a stance hardly changed from a May poll. "A 25 basis point rate hike looks like a done deal for next week's meeting," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "The ECB might not be convinced by the September meeting inflation is declining sufficiently to pause," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Price, Christine Lagarde, Carsten Brzeski, Mark Wall, Prerana Bhat, Milounee Purohit, Ross Finley, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, ING, U.S . Federal, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Europe

BERLIN, June 7 (Reuters) - German industrial output rose less than expected in April, darkening the outlook for the euro zone's largest economy following weak new orders data earlier this week. The statistics office revised up the industrial production figure for March to a 2.1% decrease from a provisional figure of a 3.4% fall. Even with this revision, German industrial production is 1.6% below its level a year earlier. Data on Tuesday showed industrial orders fell by 0.4% in the month of April. "Without any significant pick up in activity, the German economy's recession could continue in the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.

Persons: Andrew Kenningham, Kenningham, April's, Commerzbank's, Ralph Solveen, Solveen, Carsten Brzeski, Anastasiia Kozlova, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Christina Fincher Organizations: Companies, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Europe, China, United States

"Germans are cautious by nature," said Stephan Fetsch, Germany's head of consumer goods at KPMG. Economists polled by Reuters are split on its second quarter fortunes: views ranged from a 0.3% GDP fall to a 0.5% gain, with a median forecast of 0.2% growth. However, German consumer sentiment remains below its pandemic low in the spring of 2020 and the consumer barometer from the German Retail Association (HDE) shows a similar picture. German consumers were hit particularly hard by high energy prices, being more dependent on Russia gas. "The German consumer has reasons to be scared and the result of all the economic uncertainty is usually an increase in precautionary savings," said Michael Burda, economics professor at Humboldt University Berlin.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Germany's, Stephan Fetsch, Holger Schmieding, Carsten Brzeski, KPMG's Fetsch, Joerg Kraemer, Michael Burda, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, KPMG, Reuters, German Retail Association, Berenberg, ING, European Central Bank, Humboldt University Berlin, Thomson Locations: Cologne, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, France, Italy, Russia, Berlin, China, Bengaluru

☆ German exports rise unexpectedly in April on China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, June 5 (Reuters) - German exports rose unexpectedly in April, boosted by deliveries to China following its post-pandemic reopening, but analysts warned that the momentum could be short-lived. German exports increased by 1.2% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Exports to China were up 10.1%, while exports to the U.S. were up 4.7% and exports to the European Union rose 4.5%, the office said. The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros ($19.68 billion) in April, up from 14.9 billion euros the previous month. "The temporary push in exports to China will fade with time," ING's global head of macro at ING Carsten Brzeski told Reuters.

Persons: Alexander Krueger, Hauck Aufhaeuser, Claus Vistesen, ING Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, Klaus Wohlrabe, Rachel More, Maria Martinez, Kirsti Knolle, Gareth Jones Organizations: Reuters, European Union, Macroeconomics, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, China, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, U.S, Ifo

☆ Risks the global economy still faces as threat of US debt default recedes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —With the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis receding fast, the global economy looks to have dodged a huge shock. While an immediate crisis has likely been avoided, the litany of problems that had been temporarily overshadowed by the specter of a US default — among them, high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish growth — haven’t gone away. Bloomberg/Getty ImagesInflation still too highAgainst that backdrop, inflation has eased in Europe’s second biggest economy, mimicking falls in Germany, Spain and Italy. But it could still arise from two longstanding threats: the Ukraine war and the climate crisis, both of which pose risks to global supply chains and food prices. The war helped drive international food prices to an all-time high last year.

Persons: specter, haven’t, ”, Carsten Brzeski, “, Charlotte de, Neil Shearing, Vladimir Putin, Michael Bociurkiw, Bociurkiw, Marcelo del Pozo Organizations: London CNN —, ING, Charlotte de Montpellier, Bloomberg, Getty, Data, United, Deutsche Bank, Capital Economics, Atlantic Council, Isla Mayor, ” Gro Intelligence Locations: United States, China, Germany, France, Beijing, Europe’s, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Russia, Isla, Europe

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

BERLIN, May 8 (Reuters) - German industrial production fell more than expected in March, partly due to a weak performance by the automotive sector, spurring again recession fears in Europe's largest economy. Production decreased by 3.4% on the previous month following a slightly revised increase of 2.1% in February, the federal statistical office said on Monday. "After a buoyant performance by industrial production at the beginning of the year, there was an unexpectedly sharp decline in March," the economics ministry said. In the first quarter, production was 2.5% higher than in the last quarter of 2022, according to the statistics office. GDP was unchanged quarter on quarter in adjusted terms in the first quarter, following a 0.5% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ Euro zone core inflation slows unexpectedly in April, blurring the picture for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Headline inflation came in at 7% for last month, according to Eurostat, after it dropped to 6.9% in March. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 5.6% in April — from 5.7% in March. Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated a figure of 7% for headline inflation and 5.7% for core. Rather than providing some clarity on how much the central bank might raise rates by, the latest numbers have blurred the picture somewhat. Market players have been debating whether the central bank will hike Thursday by 50 or 25 basis points.

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