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☆ This is the easiest way for newbies to start investing, financial experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

For many people, investing is a necessity to grow one's savings and provide financial security in retirement. A 'fabulous, simple solution' for beginnersTarget-date funds, known as TDFs, are the simplest entry point to investing for the long term, according to financial pros. TDFs are based on age: Investors choose a fund based on the year in which they aim to retire. Other 'solid choices' for novice investorsInvestors who want to be a bit more hands-on relative to TDF investors have other simple options, experts said. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Christine Benz, Lee Baker, Baker, Carolyn McClanahan, Benz, Charles Schwab, Rowe Price, it's, McClanahan Organizations: Getty, Berkshire, Fidelity Investments, Morningstar, Apex Financial Services, Investors, Benz, Planning Partners, Fidelity, Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Finance, Young Locations: Atlanta, Jacksonville , Florida, U.S

☆ Nvidia's terrible Friday gives traders a preview of what a momentum unwind would look like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.

Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi

☆ S&P on pace to score fourth month of consecutive gains. History tells us what could come next
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is ending February with a gain of almost 5%. S & P 500: Four big months November: up 8.9% December: up 4.4% January: up 1.6% February: up 4.6% The November gain of 8.9% was one of the 20 best monthly performances in history. The S & P has advanced about 5% since passing the old January 2022 historic high, which it crossed on Jan. 19, this year. Put another way: the S & P has recovered all the bear market losses from the old high in January 2022 to the bear market bottom in October 2022, and added another 5%. "Yet it also offers encouragement that no post-recovery selloff saw the start of a new bear market before rebounding and proceeding onto additional new highs."

Persons: Steve Starker, Todd Sohn, Eli Lilly, Nicholas Colas, Sam Stovall Organizations: Nvidia, P, Technology, Services, Care, Broadcom, Communication Services, Meta, Health Care, Merck, Depot, Costco, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Berkshire Hathaway, Research Locations: BTIG

☆ Millennials Won the Stock Market Boom, Proved They're Good Investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It turns out the Robinhood crowd was onto something when they piled into the stock market during the pandemic. As of 2019, people under 40 held 4.9% of total US wealth even though they’re 37% of the population. People over 54, who make up a similar share of the population, held 71.6% of total wealth. Nearing the end of 2023, under-40s controlled 6.7% of total wealth, while those over 54 had 72.8%. Now, the challenge is to try to keep at it, get some more luck in the stock market and, God willing, their own homes.

Persons: —, Young, Millennials, Zers, they’re, “, Nick Colas, ”, Colas, Ernst & Young, It’s, millennials, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, DataTrek, Ernst &, Bloomberg, Business Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America

☆ China's chances of staging an economic rebound this year look slim
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China faces severe real estate woes, deflation, and an exodus of global investors. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe world has yet to witness any post-pandemic rebound in China, and Wall Street expects little to change in 2024. The ongoing exodus of global investors is evidence the bear case is intact, and the country's real estate sector continues to look more and more precarious. AdvertisementThat in turn has cratered sentiment, as Chinese households have the majority of their wealth tied to real estate.

Persons: —, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Mike Edwards, Weiss, haven't, Edwards, Tracy Chen, Chen, Caesar Maasry, Goldman Sachs, Maasry Organizations: Service, Wall, Tech, Baidu, US, Business, Brandywine, Supply, Seng China Enterprises, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Fed Governor Waller sounded 'dovish' in speech today, says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Governor Waller sounded 'dovish' in speech today, says Vital Knowledge's Adam CrisafulliAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge Co-Founder and Nick Colas, Datatrek Research Co-Founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Waller, Vital, Adam Crisafulli Adam Crisafulli, Nick Colas Organizations: Research

☆ After a banner 2023, the market faces a tough challenge for a repeat performance
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Since 1928, the S & P 500 has finished up 20% or more about 36% of the time. Yes, 2022 was down about 19%, but the S & P has posted declines of 10% or more only 12% of the time since 1928. Could the S & P gain 20% again in 2024? That run from 1995 to 1999 was certainly epic, but that was the last time the S & P 500 saw back-to-back 20% gains. Regardless, with the S & P 500 closing the year at 4,769, a 20% gain next year would mean the S & P would hit 5,722.

Persons: Ben Carlson, Jessica Rabe, Nicholas Colas, Tom Lee, John Stoltzfus Organizations: Ritholtz Wealth Management, DataTrek Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Oppenheimer Asset Management

☆ These 16 states are already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ A default cycle has started amid the Fed's high interest rates, economists say. These 4 charts explain how severe it is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe

☆ Hedge funds have lost $43 billion trying to short the market as the S&P 500 eyes its best month in over a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hedge fund short sellers have lost $43 billion in recent days as stocks rally, the Financial Times reported. The S&P 500 is on track for its best month since July 2022. With a more than 7% gain in November, the S&P 500 is on pace for its best month since July 2022. AdvertisementThe FT notes that analysts say some hedge funds have had to repurchase stocks to cover their short bets as a "short squeeze" pushed share prices even higher. According to S3 data, bets against technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary were the most painful for hedge funds.

Persons: —, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Wednesday Financial, S3 Partners, Federal Reserve, Carnival Corp

☆ ETFs that track meme stocks have been surging, as 'animal spirits' return to markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC

☆ A key historical indicator says the latest stock market rally is poised to push on through the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500's sector correlations suggest the current rally can go to year-end, DataTrek Research said. The indicator is a sign of investor confidence, and it's hovering near levels seen around bull markets of the past. AdvertisementThe stock market is in the midst of a strong November rally, and according to DataTrek Research, the gains could last through year-end thanks to a key historical trend. "When [investors] see clear skies ahead, correlations tend to be low as they pick and choose between individual sectors and stocks," Colas and Rabe said. When correlations hover above that level, stocks tend to be under pressure; when they are below, stocks tend to rally like they did in 2020-2021, and between January and July of this year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Research, Service

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Recession fears appear to be cooling among US companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mentions of inflation were down to 55% of companies in the third quarter, down from a peak of 83% in 2022. Taken together, the "recession" and "inflation" mentions points to moderating, but still persistent unease among companies. "Stocks have shrugged off recession fears, but they remain elevated at many companies. But they also note that the still-elevated mentions of inflation and recession don't necessarily bode poorly for stock performance. Big Wall Street firms are mixed in their outlook for the economy next year.

Persons: —, disinflation, DataTrek, DataTrek cofounders Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe, bode, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Research, Wall Street, Wall, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: America

☆ Why market timing doesn't work: S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just 8 days explain the gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just eight days that explain most of the gains. If you want a simple indication of why market timing is not an effective investment strategy, take a look at the data on the S&P 500 year to date. How to explain that the S&P is up 14% but the number of up days is about the same as the down days? Here's a hypothetical example of an investment in the S&P 500 over 50 years. The key to investing is not market timing: it is consistent investing, and understanding your own risk tolerance.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, there's, JP Morgan, Colas Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Facebook, Netflix, JP, Signature Bank Locations: Republic

☆ Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy is growing faster and oil prices will climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy in on track to see a jump in growth, according to DataTrek Research. Oil prices should rise if China's economy is accelerating, as its air quality suggests. This proves our basis point that air pollution readings can give investors an early call on a country's economy," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said. In fact, the air quality in Beijing has seen a "very visible" increase in air pollution in the last two weeks, as has Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, it will take weeks for the recent rise in China's air pollution to register in the official economic data.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Brent Organizations: Research, Service, DataTrek Research Locations: China, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Shanghai

☆ After a miserable October, the setup for stocks in November is looking better
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.

Persons: —, That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG

☆ Shares of luxury brands are tumbling in a sign consumers' high-end spending spree is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The boom in luxury goods is over as consumers pull back on their multiyear high-end spending spree. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn the US, card spending for luxury fashion has been on the decline for six quarters in a row, with luxury fashion spending down 16% year-over-year over the past quarter, Bank of America card data shows. Card spending on luxury fashion has declined for six quarters in a row. Bank of AmericaUS card spending on luxury fashion declined 16% year-per-year the past quarter, Bank of America forecasts. That's because European investors often say tech stocks are a competitor to luxury stocks in their portfolios, Colas said.

Persons: —, LVMH, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Ralph Lauren, Colas, Kelly Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of America US, Industry, Consumers, San Francisco Fed, Tech Locations: LVMH, Paris

☆ Stock market bulls are hopeful that earnings will be a welcome distraction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

After September lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year, bulls are hopeful earnings will prove a welcome distraction for a stock market mired in weak seasonal trends and rising interest rates. "Net net, the earnings estimates for these early reporters are going up, and that is a positive sign for earnings season," Earnings Scout founder and CEO Nick Raich from told me. Valuations are coming down but are still high The forward multiple for the S & P 500 (Q4 2023, and Q1-Q3 for 2024) is 17.9. For example, industrials have seen a significant decline in earnings estimates due to very large estimate declines for Boeing. Bulls hopeful earnings will prove a welcome distraction The expectations for rising earnings has many hopeful that it will help get stocks out of their recent rut due to rising interest rates.

Persons: Nick Raich, John Butters, Nicholas Colas, Raich Organizations: JPMorgan, FedEx, Oracle, Darden, Costco, Pepsi, General Motors, Ford, Netflix, NVIDIA, Apple, Intel, Boeing, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, United Parcel Service Locations: AutoZone, Horton

☆ US stocks rise but head for losing week amid spike in bond yields and surging oil prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks ticked higher Friday but were on track for a losing week. Oil prices and bond yields surged during the week, with Brent crude up 0.75% Friday. Policymakers made no rate adjustment Wednesday, but could make one more hike before year's end. The major indexes are coming off three consecutive days of losses and remain on track to finish the week in the red as bond yields jump on hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and surging oil prices. After policymakers indicated that rates could remain higher for longer into 2024, bond yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.49%, its highest level since 2007.

Persons: Brent, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Fed, Treasury, Labor Department, Markets, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

☆ Gas is rapidly approaching $6 in one state
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In California, gas prices are rapidly approaching $6 a gallon. Nationally, gas prices remain well below the record of $5.02 set last June. Still, US gas prices climbed this week to $3.88 a gallon, the highest level of the entire year, according to AAA. Boosted by those two nations’ aggressive supply cuts, US oil prices climbed to as high as $93.74 a barrel on Tuesday. And this recent rise in gas prices is causing headaches for some in Washington.

Persons: it’s, That’s, Pain, Joe Biden’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Nicholas Colas, Colas, “, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Russia don’t, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, RSM’s, Reinhart, ’, Morgan Stanley, Kristina Hooper Organizations: New York CNN, —, AAA, Brent, Federal, DataTrek Research, RSM, Lipow Oil Associates, Rockies, Citigroup, Fed, Mellon Locations: United States, West Coast, In California, Los Angeles, Long Beach, California, Washington and Nevada, Saudi Arabia, Russia, It’s, Washington, OPEC

☆ Strikes are often buying opportunities for GM shares, but this time could be different
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

GM, led by CEO Mary Barra, tends to be the U.S. automaker most affected by strikes, historically speaking. During past work stoppages, GM has experienced 94% of total lost worker days among the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers, Barclays said. The trading pattern for GM shares during walkouts has been somewhat predictable. GM has so far followed this trend, with shares barely changed on the year, compared with a 15% gain for the S & P 500 . in the eventual agreement that create an amount in excess of this would likely negatively impact post-strike stock performance," Levy said.

Persons: Mary Barra, Dan Levy, Levy Organizations: Motors, Barclays, GM, Big, United Auto Workers, UAW Locations: U.S, walkouts

☆ The 4 key reasons why the UAW could strike GM, Ford and Stellantis this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

He admits the union’s demands are “ambitious” but he insists they’re justified given the automakers’ strong profits in recent years. The automakers have balked at most of the union’s demands, according to the UAW. RaisesThe union demands an immediate 20% raise, and then four additional raises of 5% each. The UAW wants a return of traditional pension payment plans and retiree health care for all UAW members. GM put the cost of the six-week strike by the UAW in 2019 at $2.9 billion.

Persons: Shawn Fain, they’re, Fain, ”, Wheaton, It’s, Patrick Anderson, Anderson, ” Anderson, “, ” Wheaton, Cornell’s Wheaton, ’, What’s, Gavin Strassel, Walter Reuther Organizations: New, New York CNN, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Cornell University’s, Industrial and Labor Relations, GM, Anderson Economic Group, Pensions, Workers, Big Three, Anderson Economic, Walter, Walter Reuther Library, Wayne State University, Hollywood Locations: New York, Buffalo, Michigan, Wheaton, Belvidere , Illinois, Stellantis, Ohio, Detroit

☆ Coca-Cola’s CMO on Sidestepping the Culture Wars, Navigating AI and Boosting Events Over Ads
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Patrick Coffee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coca-colas-cmo-on-sidestepping-the-culture-wars-navigating-ai-and-boosting-events-over-ads-4b81acf4

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Warning signs for at least a near-term stock pullback are building
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One of the potentially big ones is that the S & P 500 on Wednesday closed below its 50-day moving average. That's typically considered a good short-term warning sign that the market is in a downtrend as traders de-risk ahead of potentially turbulent times. Those moves come at a time when other signs are mounting for a potential modest pullback, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Colas advised investors to watch the Cboe Volatility Index for clues about where the market is heading in the near term. "Longer term investors may want to just sit out this modest pullback," Colas wrote.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, DataTrek Research, Big Tech

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