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WASHINGTON — The U.S. budget deficit will grow by an estimated $1 trillion over the next 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected in a new report Wednesday. "I came to office determined to ... face the existential threat of climate and still grow, to fundamentally change our economy, and to transition this country to a clean energy future," Biden said last October. Taken together, CBO estimates that the impact of new emissions standards, clean energy tax credits and falling gas tax revenue as people buy less gas, will add $25 billion to the budget deficit this year. "Those costs reflect new emissions standards, market developments, and actions taken by the administration to implement the tax provisions." The CBO also noted that there are still many unknowns about how green energy will impact the economy and the federal budget longer term.
Persons: WASHINGTON, Joe Biden's, Biden, Philip Swagel, EPA's Organizations: CBO, Environmental Protection Agency Locations: The, U.S
Two major factors are behind the decline in the budget deficit this year, each of them one-off events that reflect the challenge for lawmakers in trying to close the growing gap between tax revenues and spending. Second, tax revenues are expected to increase because of better returns on financial investments and the collection of taxes from last year that the government postponed because of natural disasters. Over the next decade, the cumulative budget deficits will be 7% smaller than the nonpartisan CBO forecast last year. For instance, this time last year, the office projected the unemployment rate would jump to 4.7% in 2023, while the current unemployment rate is 3.7%. The CBO anticipates that the unemployment rate will hit 4.4% at the end of 2024.
Persons: Joe Biden, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Congressional, Congressional Republicans, Social Security, CBO, Republicans
REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits that have helped lift government bond yields this year will likely become secondary factors for investors, as their focus shifts to economic fundamentals, Citi analysts said. "Our baseline is that over time investors accept these fiscal risks as a fact of life and that ultimately it is not supply and demand that determine Treasury yields but it's more about the fundamentals of the economy," he said. Moody's, which last week lowered its outlook on U.S. credit, expects the government to continue to run wide fiscal deficits due to increased spending and higher debt interest payments. Some Fed officials have also said rising bond yields, which make access to credit more expensive, could be a substitute for increasing interest rates further. "There is going to be an extraction of higher yields from these investors," cautioned Mathai.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Fitch, Moody's, Nathan Sheets, Ray Dalio, Jabaz Mathai, Mathai, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Citi, Office, Associates, CNBC, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe deficit would still be wide even if rates went down, says CBO Director Phillip SwagelPhillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the deficit, its outlook, and more.
Persons: Phillip Swagel Phillip Swagel, Steve Liesman Organizations: Congressional
Efforts to raise federal minimum pay have fallen flatHowever, despite numerous efforts, raising the federal minimum wage above $7.25 an hour has been unsuccessful. Lagging the rising cost of livingIn many ways, the federal minimum wage seems like a relic of the past. Recent wage gains could be lostThe actual economic impact of a federal minimum wage increase is heavily debated. “The new conventional wisdom is that at least a moderate minimum wage increase has minimal effects on employment,” Reich told CNN. “But this new paper says that a really big minimum wage increase actually increases employment.”
Persons: Ken Rose, he’s, ” Rose, Sandy, , Michael Reich, Biden’s, ” Yannet Lathrop, Lathrop, Alex Wong, hasn’t, Rose, , ” Ken Rose, Ken Rose Joe Bishop, ” Bishop, Reich, ” Reich Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, Tiburon Fine, CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic, Institute, Dynamics, University of California, Democrats, National Employment, U.S, Capitol, United Auto Workers, United, Walmart, Costco, Starbucks, Tiburon, Congressional Locations: Sandy , Utah, American, Berkeley, Washington ,, United States, Amazon, Utah, Louisville , Kentucky, Louisville, Jefferson County , Kentucky
U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. US debt costs soarRates minus Growth hits budget mathCBO's long-term debt projectionsDYSFUNCTION AND EXPLOSIONThere were tinges of optimism though.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Olivier Blanchard, Washington's, Blanchard, it's, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S, Congressional, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Europe
Rich countries are stumbling into a debt trap
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Unlike many corporations and households, the U.S. government did not lock in the low interest rates of the last decade by issuing long-dated debt, preferring instead to skew funding towards bills and short-term bonds. The second route out of the debt trap is to target the primary fiscal surplus, choosing a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes that will stabilise the public debt. That leaves the third route to debt sustainability – keeping real interest rates low. But in the short run, it allows a government to tame the debt ratio without fiscal austerity, and even if growth is sluggish. Governments are indeed stuck in a classic debt trap.
Persons: Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kacper, Everett Dirksen, you’re, Dirksen’s, Stanley Druckenmiller, Joe Biden’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan's, NATO, REUTERS, Reuters, Congressional, Office, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Medicaid, Federal, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Vilnius, Lithuania, Illinois, U.S, Britain
Breakingviews category · November 3, 2023 · 6:06 AM UTC“A billion here, a billion there”, Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen reputedly said of the U.S. budget deficit in the mid-1960s, “and pretty soon, you’re talking big money". The senator would need to do some swift recalibrations were he confronted with today’s American public finances. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30 had hit $1.7 trillion. Shortly afterwards, the International Monetary Fund forecast that the deficit will continue at the same level for at least the next five years. Meanwhile, government debt has tripled since the senator’s day to around 120% of GDP.
Persons: Everett Dirksen, you’re Organizations: Congressional, Office, International Monetary Fund Locations: Illinois
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has called the House GOP bill a “deeply flawed proposal” that the Senate will not take it up. Democrats have called for aid to Israel to be paired with additional security assistance for Ukraine in its war against Russia. In the Senate, there is bipartisan support for aid to Israel and further aid to Ukraine. But in the House, many Republicans are opposed to sending more aid to Ukraine, putting the two chambers at odds. In an attempt to offset the cost of the $14.3 billion in Israel aid, the House bill would rescind $14.3 billion in funding for the Internal Revenue Service.
Persons: Hamas –, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, ” Schumer, Schumer, ” Johnson, that’s, you’ve, “ we’re, they’re, CNN’s Haley Talbot, Kristin Wilson, Mel Zanona Organizations: Hamas, Democratic, GOP, Internal Revenue Service, Ukraine, IRS Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Russia, Gaza, Washington, “ Ukraine
REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said on Wednesday he plans to hold a vote on a standalone Israel aid bill despite a Congressional Budget Office report showing it could increase the federal deficit. In the first major legislative action under Johnson, House Republicans unveiled their bill on Monday seeking to provide $14.3 billion for Israel by cutting Internal Revenue Service (IRS) funding. The House could vote on the bill and pass it with Republican support as soon as Thursday. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on Wednesday that the IRS cuts and the Israel aid in the standalone bill would add nearly $30 billion to the U.S. budget deficit, currently estimated at $1.7 trillion. To become law, any legislation must pass the House, the Senate and be signed into law by Biden.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Nathan Howard, Johnson, Joe Biden's, Josh Hawley, " Johnson, Biden, Johnson's, Chuck Schumer, David Morgan, Patricia Zengerle, Dan Whitcomb, Katharine Jackson, Scott Malone, Rod Nickel Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, . House, House Republicans, Revenue Service, Democratic, White, Israel, Kyiv, Fox News, Office, CBO, Senate, Democrat, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Israel, China, Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, East
Speaking at this week's global finance meeting in Riyadh, HSBC boss Noel Quinn warned of a potential "tipping point on fiscal deficits" for a number of countries across the world. And some analysts fear the uncertainty of next year's funding crush is filtering out the steepening yield curve via the term premium. Term premium at highest in 8 yearsReuters GraphicsCBO long-term US debt and deficit projections'DOOM LOOP'? That's spooky enough, until you start to factor in the recent yield spike and or a return of the term premium to 60-year averages of 150 bp. Tipping point or not, there's a danger the market is starting crystallise the problem it fears most.
Persons: Sukree, Noel Quinn, it's, that's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Goldman Sachs, Jeremy Hunt, Mike Dolan Organizations: HSBC, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, Fed, JPMorgan, Treasury, CBO, Moody's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Riyadh, U.S, Washington, Europe, Italy
IMF Director of Fiscal Affairs Vitor Gaspar speaks to reporters at the headquarters of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, U.S., October 12, 2022. Continuing along their projected fiscal paths will ultimately cause difficulties for the world's two largest economies, Gaspar told Reuters in an interview. The U.S. and China are fueling a projected return to higher debt levels after two years of falling debt-to-GDP ratios as a post-COVID growth surge fades. DEFICITS RISINGGaspar said the challenge for the United States was persistently high and growing budget deficits. GROWTH FADESChina faces different challenges, the largest of which is slowing economic growth.
Persons: Vitor Gaspar, James Lawler Duggan, Gaspar, David Lawder, John Stonestreet Organizations: Fiscal, International Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund Fiscal, Reuters, U.S, Congressional Budget Office, Social, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Rights MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, China, United States, Washington
Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?
Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe
The trajectory of US debt interest payments is not sustainable, Maya MacGuineas told Insider. Interest will eclipse defense spending in four years, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president said. By that measure, US debt interest payments will become the single biggest federal expenditure by 2051, when it eclipses Social Security. AdvertisementAdvertisement"So clearly not sustainable," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementAt today's level, interest payments already outpace federal spending on youth education, and in four years, it will top defense spending.
Persons: MacGuineas, Janet Yellen, it's Organizations: Federal, Social, Service, CNBC, Congressional, Federal Budget, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon
The US's $32 trillion debt mountain may not be as bad as it seems. Still, economists say debt problems could arise in the future given the current rate of spending. But experts say that there are major misconceptions floating around the US debt problem that could make the nation's debt load appear more dire than it actually is. America's debt problem is uniqueRising debt levels is a worldwide issue. "This is more of a broader sovereign debt problem that's starting to develop.
Persons: Paul Krugman, there's, that's, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Service, Congressional, Office, Management, Moody's, Atlanta Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Wall, Silicon, Great Britain
The dollar's dominance is being threatening by growing debt in the US, economist Barry Eichengreen said. High debt caused the downfall of the British sterling as a global currency in the early 1900s, scholars say. Mounting debt was responsible for the British sterling's downfall as the world's top currency in the early 1900s, Eichengreen said. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Thus, whether the dollar retains its global role will depend not simply on US relations with Russia, China, or the BRICS. But a weaker dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing, as US companies with business overseas can be hurt if the dollar is too strong against local currencies.
Persons: Barry Eichengreen, Eichengreen, there's Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Syndicate, UC Berkeley, Congressional, Office Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia
Republican hopefuls’ deficit goals are all talk
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Participants in the party’s first debate for the 2024 election on Wednesday night promised to shrink the government’s budget shortfall. Yet Republicans have a bad track record for cutting federal debt, and some candidates are already touting pricey projects and tax cuts. The last Republican president to run a budget surplus was George W. Bush in 2001, but even that year was partly influenced by the cost-cutting measures put in place by his Democratic predecessor. With Congress balking at such a combinations, Republican candidates’ plans are all talk, little hope of action. That budget deficit is 122% larger than the shortfall seen in the same period last year.
Persons: Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, jockeying, , Donald Trump, George W, Bush, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Arkansas, New, U.S, South Carolina, North Dakota, Republican, Reuters, Republicans, South, Democratic, U.S . Office, Management, Former New, Congressional, Cato Institute, Fitch, Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: New Jersey, Florida, U.S, WASHINGTON, Milwaukee , Wisconsin, South Carolina, Former New Jersey, Arkansas, Ukraine, China, The U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCBO Director Phillip Swagel on U.S. deficit: An unusual and very challenging fiscal situationPhillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director, joins 'Squawk Bo' to discuss the fallout from Fitch's rating downgrade, which cited federal debt levels as one of the reasons for the downgrade, U.S. debt fears following CBO's projection that the nation's debt will soon exceed its all time high and skyrocket to 181% by 2053, and more.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Bo Organizations: Congressional
U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. Managing the ballooning debt is more challenging now than when S&P stripped the United States of its AAA rating in 2011. The deficit before interest payments was lower then, economic growth was weak but still higher than prevailing interest rates, and the Fed was buying boatloads of bonds. Interest payments as a share of federal revenue, spending, and the economy are set to reach historically high levels early in the next decade. It's not just the supply of debt that matters - demand to hold that debt is critical.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fitch, Uncle Sam, Carter, Chris Marsh, Bonds, Phil Suttle, It's, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, Fed, Carter Administration, Investors, Reuters, Treasury, CBO, Suttle, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington, United States, Foreign, China, Treasuries, U.S
"Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster," the research firm said. "Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster." Meanwhile, the government's debt servicing costs hit $475 billion in 2022, up 35% from the $352 billion spent to service the national debt in 2021. Debt servicing costs will likely increase to $663 billion this year, the CBO estimated, with total interest payments on the debt potentially mounting to $10.6 trillion over the next 10 years. Rising debt servicing costs pose trouble for markets and economy.
Persons: Stephen Pavlick, Pavlick, that's, Glenmede Organizations: Service, Macro, Congressional, Office, Committee, Federal Budget, Fed, CBO, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Global stock markets tumbled on Wednesday after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating — but top economists say there is nothing to worry about. U.S. stock futures were sharply lower after the downgrade, pointing to a fall of almost 300 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the Wednesday open on Wall Street. Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the downgrade as "outdated." Phillips said the downgrade "should have little direct impact on financial markets as it is unlikely there are major holders of Treasury securities who would be forced to sell based on the ratings change." Harvey noted that, ahead of the 2011 S&P downgrade, stocks were in correction territory, credit spreads were widening, rates were falling, and the global financial crisis "was still in the market's collective conscience" — whereas the conditions today are "almost the opposite."
Persons: Fitch, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Summers, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, Phillips, Wells, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Mark Mobius, they've, CNBC's Organizations: United, AAA, Dow Jones, U.S ., Allianz Chief, Treasury, Wells Fargo Securities Head, Equity, CNBC, ., Mobius Capital Partners Locations: United States, London, Asia, Pacific, Wells Fargo, U.S
De-dollarization risks aren't priced in despite rising US dysfunction and tension with China, JPMorgan said. Investors should go underweight on the dollar, as well as US markets, bonds, and financial equities, analysts said. But that also points to the risks that are not yet reflected in financial markets. Meanwhile, economic and political instability within the US will also factor into the credibility of the dollar, JPMorgan added. While "rapid and deep" de-dollarization is unlikely in the next decade, investors should expect partial de-dollarization, with the yuan rising among Chinese partners, strategists predicted.
Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, CBO Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Washington
US debt held by the public will climb to a record high of 107% of the gross domestic product in 2029, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected on Wednesday. The projection comes despite the bipartisan debt ceiling deal hailed by its backers as a major deficit reducer. In 2029, debt held by the public will total about $36 trillion, or $104,300 per person, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-profit public policy organization. Debt held by the public is expected to hit 181% of GDP in 2053, far exceeding any previous record. To put it another way: US debt in 2053 could equal about $384,700 per person, compared to $75,700 today, according to Towner.
Persons: That’s, Chris Towner, Towner, , Michael Peterson, Peter G Organizations: New, New York CNN, Republicans, Democrats, CBO, Federal, Budget, Social Security, Peterson Foundation Locations: New York, United, Towner
The White House estimated, and independent budget analysts agreed, it could cut the deficit by $300 billion over the next decade. The tax credits have been massively popular with companies, spurring new investments and boosting job growth, environmental benefits -- and the price tag. The bill will add $750 billion to the nation’s deficit over ten years, according to Smetters. White House officials say revenue will outpace original congressional estimates, and they point to the millions of jobs the IRA is expected to create. “We’re going to have more deployment and achieve more emissions reductions than we initially thought,” the White House official said.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, , Kent Smetters, Goldman Sachs, Joe Manchin, Manchin, we've, Joe Biden’s, Tesla, Smetters, ” Smetters, “ We’re, Merck, Jarrett Renshaw, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: White House, Penn Wharton Budget Model, White, Congressional, Credit Suisse, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, U.S, Democrat, Credit, Office, University of Pennsylvania, European Union, EV, Biden, Republicans, CBO, Amazon, Pepsi, Home, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan
Graduate student debt now accounts for 47% of new student loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Federal graduate student loans have no effective cap unlike undergraduate loans, which are capped at $57,500 in Federal Student Aid. This has been the case since 2006, when federal graduate student loans were capped at $18,500. The average student debt for a master's degree for the 1999-2000 school year came in at $36,600, compared with $55,540 in 2016. The bipartisan debt-ceiling deal mandates student loan payments must resume by Aug. 30.
Persons: Biden's, , Sandra Black, Lesley Turner, Jeffrey Dunning, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden Organizations: Street, Service, Research, Grad PLUS, Universities, Congressional, Federal, Federal Student Aid, Congress, CBO, Grad, Biden, Secretary, Republican, Street Journal, White, Politico, Department Locations: Texas
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