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REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said on Wednesday he plans to hold a vote on a standalone Israel aid bill despite a Congressional Budget Office report showing it could increase the federal deficit. In the first major legislative action under Johnson, House Republicans unveiled their bill on Monday seeking to provide $14.3 billion for Israel by cutting Internal Revenue Service (IRS) funding. The House could vote on the bill and pass it with Republican support as soon as Thursday. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on Wednesday that the IRS cuts and the Israel aid in the standalone bill would add nearly $30 billion to the U.S. budget deficit, currently estimated at $1.7 trillion. To become law, any legislation must pass the House, the Senate and be signed into law by Biden.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Nathan Howard, Johnson, Joe Biden's, Josh Hawley, " Johnson, Biden, Johnson's, Chuck Schumer, David Morgan, Patricia Zengerle, Dan Whitcomb, Katharine Jackson, Scott Malone, Rod Nickel Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, . House, House Republicans, Revenue Service, Democratic, White, Israel, Kyiv, Fox News, Office, CBO, Senate, Democrat, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Israel, China, Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, East
Speaking at this week's global finance meeting in Riyadh, HSBC boss Noel Quinn warned of a potential "tipping point on fiscal deficits" for a number of countries across the world. And some analysts fear the uncertainty of next year's funding crush is filtering out the steepening yield curve via the term premium. Term premium at highest in 8 yearsReuters GraphicsCBO long-term US debt and deficit projections'DOOM LOOP'? That's spooky enough, until you start to factor in the recent yield spike and or a return of the term premium to 60-year averages of 150 bp. Tipping point or not, there's a danger the market is starting crystallise the problem it fears most.
Persons: Sukree, Noel Quinn, it's, that's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Goldman Sachs, Jeremy Hunt, Mike Dolan Organizations: HSBC, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, Fed, JPMorgan, Treasury, CBO, Moody's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Riyadh, U.S, Washington, Europe, Italy
IMF Director of Fiscal Affairs Vitor Gaspar speaks to reporters at the headquarters of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, U.S., October 12, 2022. Continuing along their projected fiscal paths will ultimately cause difficulties for the world's two largest economies, Gaspar told Reuters in an interview. The U.S. and China are fueling a projected return to higher debt levels after two years of falling debt-to-GDP ratios as a post-COVID growth surge fades. DEFICITS RISINGGaspar said the challenge for the United States was persistently high and growing budget deficits. GROWTH FADESChina faces different challenges, the largest of which is slowing economic growth.
Persons: Vitor Gaspar, James Lawler Duggan, Gaspar, David Lawder, John Stonestreet Organizations: Fiscal, International Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund Fiscal, Reuters, U.S, Congressional Budget Office, Social, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Rights MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, China, United States, Washington
Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?
Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe
The trajectory of US debt interest payments is not sustainable, Maya MacGuineas told Insider. Interest will eclipse defense spending in four years, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president said. By that measure, US debt interest payments will become the single biggest federal expenditure by 2051, when it eclipses Social Security. AdvertisementAdvertisement"So clearly not sustainable," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementAt today's level, interest payments already outpace federal spending on youth education, and in four years, it will top defense spending.
Persons: MacGuineas, Janet Yellen, it's Organizations: Federal, Social, Service, CNBC, Congressional, Federal Budget, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon
The US's $32 trillion debt mountain may not be as bad as it seems. Still, economists say debt problems could arise in the future given the current rate of spending. But experts say that there are major misconceptions floating around the US debt problem that could make the nation's debt load appear more dire than it actually is. America's debt problem is uniqueRising debt levels is a worldwide issue. "This is more of a broader sovereign debt problem that's starting to develop.
Persons: Paul Krugman, there's, that's, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Service, Congressional, Office, Management, Moody's, Atlanta Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Wall, Silicon, Great Britain
The dollar's dominance is being threatening by growing debt in the US, economist Barry Eichengreen said. High debt caused the downfall of the British sterling as a global currency in the early 1900s, scholars say. Mounting debt was responsible for the British sterling's downfall as the world's top currency in the early 1900s, Eichengreen said. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Thus, whether the dollar retains its global role will depend not simply on US relations with Russia, China, or the BRICS. But a weaker dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing, as US companies with business overseas can be hurt if the dollar is too strong against local currencies.
Persons: Barry Eichengreen, Eichengreen, there's Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Syndicate, UC Berkeley, Congressional, Office Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia
Republican hopefuls’ deficit goals are all talk
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Participants in the party’s first debate for the 2024 election on Wednesday night promised to shrink the government’s budget shortfall. Yet Republicans have a bad track record for cutting federal debt, and some candidates are already touting pricey projects and tax cuts. The last Republican president to run a budget surplus was George W. Bush in 2001, but even that year was partly influenced by the cost-cutting measures put in place by his Democratic predecessor. With Congress balking at such a combinations, Republican candidates’ plans are all talk, little hope of action. That budget deficit is 122% larger than the shortfall seen in the same period last year.
Persons: Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, jockeying, , Donald Trump, George W, Bush, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Arkansas, New, U.S, South Carolina, North Dakota, Republican, Reuters, Republicans, South, Democratic, U.S . Office, Management, Former New, Congressional, Cato Institute, Fitch, Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: New Jersey, Florida, U.S, WASHINGTON, Milwaukee , Wisconsin, South Carolina, Former New Jersey, Arkansas, Ukraine, China, The U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCBO Director Phillip Swagel on U.S. deficit: An unusual and very challenging fiscal situationPhillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director, joins 'Squawk Bo' to discuss the fallout from Fitch's rating downgrade, which cited federal debt levels as one of the reasons for the downgrade, U.S. debt fears following CBO's projection that the nation's debt will soon exceed its all time high and skyrocket to 181% by 2053, and more.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Bo Organizations: Congressional
U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. Managing the ballooning debt is more challenging now than when S&P stripped the United States of its AAA rating in 2011. The deficit before interest payments was lower then, economic growth was weak but still higher than prevailing interest rates, and the Fed was buying boatloads of bonds. Interest payments as a share of federal revenue, spending, and the economy are set to reach historically high levels early in the next decade. It's not just the supply of debt that matters - demand to hold that debt is critical.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fitch, Uncle Sam, Carter, Chris Marsh, Bonds, Phil Suttle, It's, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, Fed, Carter Administration, Investors, Reuters, Treasury, CBO, Suttle, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington, United States, Foreign, China, Treasuries, U.S
"Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster," the research firm said. "Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster." Meanwhile, the government's debt servicing costs hit $475 billion in 2022, up 35% from the $352 billion spent to service the national debt in 2021. Debt servicing costs will likely increase to $663 billion this year, the CBO estimated, with total interest payments on the debt potentially mounting to $10.6 trillion over the next 10 years. Rising debt servicing costs pose trouble for markets and economy.
Persons: Stephen Pavlick, Pavlick, that's, Glenmede Organizations: Service, Macro, Congressional, Office, Committee, Federal Budget, Fed, CBO, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Global stock markets tumbled on Wednesday after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating — but top economists say there is nothing to worry about. U.S. stock futures were sharply lower after the downgrade, pointing to a fall of almost 300 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the Wednesday open on Wall Street. Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the downgrade as "outdated." Phillips said the downgrade "should have little direct impact on financial markets as it is unlikely there are major holders of Treasury securities who would be forced to sell based on the ratings change." Harvey noted that, ahead of the 2011 S&P downgrade, stocks were in correction territory, credit spreads were widening, rates were falling, and the global financial crisis "was still in the market's collective conscience" — whereas the conditions today are "almost the opposite."
Persons: Fitch, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Summers, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, Phillips, Wells, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Mark Mobius, they've, CNBC's Organizations: United, AAA, Dow Jones, U.S ., Allianz Chief, Treasury, Wells Fargo Securities Head, Equity, CNBC, ., Mobius Capital Partners Locations: United States, London, Asia, Pacific, Wells Fargo, U.S
De-dollarization risks aren't priced in despite rising US dysfunction and tension with China, JPMorgan said. Investors should go underweight on the dollar, as well as US markets, bonds, and financial equities, analysts said. But that also points to the risks that are not yet reflected in financial markets. Meanwhile, economic and political instability within the US will also factor into the credibility of the dollar, JPMorgan added. While "rapid and deep" de-dollarization is unlikely in the next decade, investors should expect partial de-dollarization, with the yuan rising among Chinese partners, strategists predicted.
Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, CBO Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Washington
US debt held by the public will climb to a record high of 107% of the gross domestic product in 2029, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected on Wednesday. The projection comes despite the bipartisan debt ceiling deal hailed by its backers as a major deficit reducer. In 2029, debt held by the public will total about $36 trillion, or $104,300 per person, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-profit public policy organization. Debt held by the public is expected to hit 181% of GDP in 2053, far exceeding any previous record. To put it another way: US debt in 2053 could equal about $384,700 per person, compared to $75,700 today, according to Towner.
Persons: That’s, Chris Towner, Towner, , Michael Peterson, Peter G Organizations: New, New York CNN, Republicans, Democrats, CBO, Federal, Budget, Social Security, Peterson Foundation Locations: New York, United, Towner
The White House estimated, and independent budget analysts agreed, it could cut the deficit by $300 billion over the next decade. The tax credits have been massively popular with companies, spurring new investments and boosting job growth, environmental benefits -- and the price tag. The bill will add $750 billion to the nation’s deficit over ten years, according to Smetters. White House officials say revenue will outpace original congressional estimates, and they point to the millions of jobs the IRA is expected to create. “We’re going to have more deployment and achieve more emissions reductions than we initially thought,” the White House official said.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, , Kent Smetters, Goldman Sachs, Joe Manchin, Manchin, we've, Joe Biden’s, Tesla, Smetters, ” Smetters, “ We’re, Merck, Jarrett Renshaw, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: White House, Penn Wharton Budget Model, White, Congressional, Credit Suisse, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, U.S, Democrat, Credit, Office, University of Pennsylvania, European Union, EV, Biden, Republicans, CBO, Amazon, Pepsi, Home, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan
Graduate student debt now accounts for 47% of new student loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Federal graduate student loans have no effective cap unlike undergraduate loans, which are capped at $57,500 in Federal Student Aid. This has been the case since 2006, when federal graduate student loans were capped at $18,500. The average student debt for a master's degree for the 1999-2000 school year came in at $36,600, compared with $55,540 in 2016. The bipartisan debt-ceiling deal mandates student loan payments must resume by Aug. 30.
Persons: Biden's, , Sandra Black, Lesley Turner, Jeffrey Dunning, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden Organizations: Street, Service, Research, Grad PLUS, Universities, Congressional, Federal, Federal Student Aid, Congress, CBO, Grad, Biden, Secretary, Republican, Street Journal, White, Politico, Department Locations: Texas
The deal to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until January 2025 holds non-defense discretionary spending largely flat this year, with a 1% increase in fiscal 2024. SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE OFF LIMITSIn their debt limit negotiations, both President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy vowed not to touch the main driver of U.S. debt: rising Social Security pension and Medicare health benefit costs. Debt-ceiling negotiations spared cuts to mandatory spending like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security even though these programs cost more than discretionary spending. CBO projects the government will spend $6 trillion on mandatory spending programs in the 2033 fiscal year, up from $4.1 trillion this year. But the plan failed when then-president Barack Obama declined to endorse it, setting up Congress for the debt ceiling battle of 2011.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Julia Nikhinson, Dennis Ippolito, you've, Nigel Chalk, Biden, Brian Riedl, Linda Bilmes, Bowles, Barack Obama, Bilmes, David Lawder, Andy Sullivan, Heather Timmons, Nick Zieminski Organizations: White, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Republicans, Defense, Southern Methodist University, Congressional Budget Office, Security, Social Security, CBO, International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Democratic, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF, Manhattan Institute, Harvard Kennedy School, Commerce Department, Simpson, Thomson Locations: United States, Washington , U.S, U.S, Washington
It was one the president deployed once again behind closed doors at the White House. With Memorial Day on the horizon, senior White House officials said protecting veterans’ benefits was a top priority. They also knew it was a sensitive issue for Republicans’ politically, especially as House Republicans parried White House allegations about cuts to veterans’ services. White House officials would engage in conversations where their Republican counterparts would outline a potential resolution on issues. For months, White House officials hoped – and to some degree based on past battles, expected – Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell would engage in finding a resolution.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, , ” Biden, Kevin McCarthy, simmered, Steve Ricchetti, Louisa Terrell, Shalanda Young, reticence, Biden didn’t, McCarthy, ’ carveouts, Republicans ’, Republicans parried, ” Terrell, , ” Young, Jeff Zients, , would’ve, that’s, ” Zients, ” Ricchetti, Patrick McHenry, Young, Michael Linden, Ricchetti, McCarthy’s, Mitch McConnell, Terrell, McHenry, Garret Graves, Graves, Dan Meyer, they’ve, “ There’s, you’re, cleaver Organizations: CNN, Resolute, Legislative, White, Republican, FBI, Republicans, Internal Revenue Service, SNAP, Congressional, Office, Progressive, Young, White House, GOP, Biden, Republican Rep, Congress, dropoff, Air Force Academy Locations: Washington, Garret Graves of Louisiana, McHenry, Louisiana, Ukraine, Colorado
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDebt bill is encouraging 'I hope concern with borrowing doesn't end here', says fmr. CBO directorTom Lee, Fundstrat managing partner, Keith Hall, fmr. Congressional Budget Office director, and Donna Edwards, former Congresswoman (D-Maryland), join 'Last Call' to react to President Biden's address to the nation and upcoming debt ceiling bill signing.
Persons: fmr, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Keith Hall, Donna Edwards, Biden's Organizations: Congressional Locations: Maryland
Since the debt ceiling was breached in mid-January, the Treasury Department has not been able to borrow more money. What happens once the debt ceiling is raisedBy law, the Treasury Department is obligated to make any funds that were affected by the extraordinary measures whole. Unlike Treasury bill auctions that occur on a weekly and monthly basis, cash management bill auctions are irregular, though not uncommon. Over the past 25 years, the Treasury held six one-day cash management bill auctions. In turn, investors may opt to buy more Treasury bills instead of stocks, potentially sucking some liquidity out of the market.
Persons: Joe Biden, States ’, They’re, wasn’t, Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Department of, Treasury, Treasury Department, Civil, Disability Fund, Postal Service, Congressional, CBO Locations: New York, States, United States
WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The bipartisan debt-ceiling deal that could clear Congress as soon as Thursday would stave off an imminent U.S. default, but might deliver less budget savings than Republicans have hoped for, according to nonpartisan budget analysts. The agreement ensures that President Joe Biden will not have to grapple with another debt-ceiling showdown until after the November 2024 election. That is less than the $4.8 trillion Republicans had initially sought, but still the largest deficit-reduction package since a 2011 deal that emerged from a similar debt-ceiling showdown. That would put more $1 trillion of the deal's anticipated savings at risk, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a research group. The deal increases spending on defense and veterans' care, even as it aims to clamp down on other discretionary programs.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, MacGuineas, Biden, Veronique de Rugy, George Mason University's, Penn Wharton, McCarthy, Emily Gee, Andy Sullivan, Scott Malone, Alistair Bell Organizations: Penn Wharton Budget, White, Internal, Service, Office, Republican, SNAP, Social Security, Center for American, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington
WASHINGTON, May 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday its budget deficit projections would be reduced by about $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years if the debt ceiling bill now up for a vote in Congress were enacted in its present form. The projection comes following the debt ceiling deal struck last weekend between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The bill, if approved by Congress, will prevent the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt and comes after weeks of heated negotiations between Biden and House Republicans. McCarthy has predicted he would have the support of a majority of his fellow Republicans for the deal to lift the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt ceiling, and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said he expected Democratic support. Reporting by Kanishka Singh and Jasper Ward; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Kanishka Singh, Jasper Ward, Sonali Paul, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S, Congressional, Democratic, Republican, Congress, Biden, House Republicans, Republicans, Thomson Locations: Jasper
In total, at least 78,000 people would gain access SNAP benefits per month, which is a .2% increase, the CBO wrote. Over weeks of fraught negotiations, many GOP members opposed additional public benefit spending, seeking to bolster the work requirements required to access some benefits. In February, the GOP House Budget Committee signaled that they wanted to limit public spending on SNAP. Through May, members of the America First caucus urged McCarthy to reject any deal that did not expand work requirements for public benefits. The bill raises the age for work requirements from 49 to 54.
Persons: , Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, McCarthy, Meredith Lee Hill Organizations: Service, Office, SNAP, CBO, GOP, Committee, America, NBC News
Debt deal sacrifices $140 bln return on investment
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The budget deal agreed to by President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy would move $20 billion away from the Internal Revenue Service over the next two years. The change shores up cash for other agencies, but projections suggest the IRS funding would’ve made a significant step toward closing the government’s $925 billion budget gap. Biden approved $80 billion of new cash for the IRS in 2021, arguing the funding would strengthen enforcement and increase revenue collected by Uncle Sam. The CBO estimated in 2021 that for every $1 increase to IRS funding the government would recoup $6.40 to $7.10. The $20 billion being diverted from the agency could therefore raise as much as $142 billion through 2031.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, would’ve, Biden, Uncle Sam, Ben Winck, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Internal Revenue Service, Office, CBO, IRS, White, Twitter, Toyota, Lufthansa, Thomson Locations: Saudi, East, Italy
The House Rules Committee voted to advance a bill dealing with the federal debt ceiling to the full House. Raising the debt limit, now $31.4 trillion, would allow Treasury to continue borrowing to pay the US's bills. Earlier, he said on "Fox and Friends" that "There's nothing in the bill for" Democrats — hardly a helpful statement for Biden. Top administration officials are heading to Capitol Hill to brief Democrats privately ahead of Wednesday's planned vote. "It is my expectation that House Republicans would keep their promise and deliver at least 150 votes as it relates to an agreement that they themselves negotiated," Jeffries said.
Persons: , Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, McCarthy, Democrats —, Biden, Wednesday's, Hakeem Jeffries, Jeffries, Scott Perry, Chip Roy, Nancy Mace, Pramila Jayapal, it's, Sen, Joe Manchin, Raul Grijalva, Chuck Schumer, McConnell, Schumer, Democratic Sen, Tim Kaine, Virginia, Janet Yellen, Aamer Madhani, Seung Min Kim, Farnoush Amiri, Darlene Superville, Mary Clare Jalonick Organizations: Treasury, Service, WASHINGTON, Republicans, Democrats, Caucus, Republican, Capitol, Fox, Office, Social Security, Democratic, Freedom Caucus, Liberal, Appalachia ., Congressional Progressive Caucus, Democrat, Natural Resources Committee, Senate, Senators, House, Associated Press Locations: Washington, Texas, Appalachia, Arizona, That's
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