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The economy was even hotter in the third quarter than initially believed, according to an update Wednesday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Increased investment and government spending drove the higher estimate. in 3Q23, up from initial estimate of +4.9% … personal consumption revised lower while business investment revised higher,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, posted on social media. “Ultimately, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic helped boost consumer spending and delay the onset of recession,” BCA Research wrote on Wednesday. “However, the tailwind from excess savings is ebbing.

Persons: ann, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Consumers, Monday’s Organizations: Gross, BEA, “, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Research, San Francisco Fed, BCA, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: 3Q23, U.S

WASHINGTON (AP) — A key Federal Reserve official said Tuesday that he is “increasingly confident” that the Fed's interest rate policies will succeed in bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target level. The official, Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, cautioned that inflation is still too high and that it's not yet certain if a recent slowdown in price increases can be sustained. Waller's remarks follow Chair Jerome Powell's more cautious comments earlier this month, when Powell said “we are not confident” that the Fed's key short-term interest rate was high enough to fully defeat inflation. Inflation, measured year over year, has plunged from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% in October. Slower spending and hiring, he said, should help further cool inflation.

Persons: “, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Waller Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Fed's, of Governors, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Washington

☆ UK's Sunak hails $37 billion investments before FDI summit
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Alistair Smout | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Australian funds IFM Investors and Aware Super will pump 10 billion pounds and 5 billion pounds, respectively, into projects ranging from infrastructure and energy transition to affordable housing, Sunak's Downing Street office said in a statement. Spanish power giant Iberdrola (IBE.MC) will add 7 billion pounds to its investment plans in Britain, which include transmission and distribution electricity networks, it said. France last year overtook Britain as the European country with the highest number of new FDI projects. French President Emmanuel Macron announced 13 billion euros ($14.18 billion)of investment commitments in his country at a similar FDI gathering in May. It wants to deal with one person," investment minister Dominic Johnson told Reuters ahead of Monday's event at Hampton Court.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Ian Forsyth, Sunak's, Sunak, Emmanuel Macron, Stephen Schwarzman, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase, Dominic Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, IFM, William Schomberg, Alistair Smout, Louise Heavens Organizations: Britain's, Nissan, IFM, Microsoft, Britain, Blackstone, Hampton Court, Thomson Locations: Sunderland, Britain, Spanish, Hampton, London, France, Germany, England, British

[1/2] British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during the opening session of the Global Food Security Summit at Lancaster House in London, Britain November 20, 2023. Years of political churn - with five prime ministers and a non-stop ministerial carousel since the 2016 Brexit vote - have shaken Britain's reputation for stability among investors. Some executives say the country, long a magnet for FDI, has simply taken them for granted. But companies and investors say that a focus by regulators on limiting costs for bill-payers in sectors such as water, telecoms and energy has crimped investment. British investment minister Dominic Johnson said the government would be in listening mode at the gathering on Nov. 27 to hear how it can remove hurdles.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Dan Kitwood, Sunak, Emanuel Macron, Jack Paris, Paris, Jeremy Hunt, EY, Alina Osorio, Mikhail Taver, Richard Harrington, Harrington, Dominic Johnson, Johnson, Kate Holton, Sinead Cruise, Andy Bruce, Alexander Smith Organizations: British, Global Food Security, Lancaster House, Hampton Court, Partners, Reuters, European Union, United, Labour Party, India's Tata Group, Britain, AstraZeneca, Ireland, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Hampton, France, Versailles, European, Germany, United States, Europe, Delaware

☆ Crypto scam: Inside the billion-dollar ‘pig-butchering’ industry
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Reuters Graphic | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Of that, at least $9.1 million came from a crypto wallet that U.S. blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs said was linked to pig-butchering scams. Neither did the Thai government, the Thai police or the Bangkok-based trade group Wang represented, the Thai-Asia Economic Exchange Trade Association. The crypto account registered to Wang was held at Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, according to three blockchain analysis firms. In April, the U.S. Department of Justice said it seized about $112 million worth of crypto linked to pig-butchering scams, without identifying suspects. The crypto account in Wang’s name was registered in November 2020, according to the financial records Reuters reviewed.

Persons: Wang Yicheng, Wang, Emma, Lisa Wolk, Erin West, Jessica Jung, West, “ I’ve, Jeremy Douglas, Binance, Bitmain, ” Organizations: Thai, Reuters, TRM Labs, Asia Economic Exchange Trade Association, U.S . Federal Bureau of Investigation, Secret Service, FBI, Secret, Global, U.S . Department of Justice, U.S . Treasury, United Nations Office, Drugs, Workers, KK Park, Commerce Company, Cultural Exchange Center, Overseas, United, Washington, Cultural Exchange Locations: California, Bangkok, Thai, Asia, Southeast Asia, U.S, Binance, United States, Thailand, China, Myanmar, KK, Ningbo, China’s, Xiamen

SummaryCompanies UK business investment has lagged since Brexit"Largest business tax cut" in modern history-HuntTax break costs 11 bln stg a yearOBR forecasts 3 bln stg a year investment boostLONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Britain's finance minister Jeremy Hunt made a tax break for business investment permanent on Wednesday, aiming to kickstart growth in the country's sluggish economy. Hunt hopes that by making permanent the tax break known as "full expensing", companies will spend more on new kit and technology, lifting productivity. This is the largest business tax cut in modern British history," Hunt said in his Autumn Statement on Wednesday. BT (BT.L), a beneficiary of the tax break as it is investing billions in building a new fibre network, welcomed Hunt's move. British business investment has trailed that of other developed economies, according to research from the International Monetary Fund.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, Hunt's, Philip Jansen, Jessica Taylor, Handout, Stephen Phipson, Robert Forrester, David Milliken, Kylie MacLellan, Sarah Young, Kate Holton, Alex Richardson Organizations: LONDON, BT, Labour, Conservatives, Britain's, REUTERS Acquire, International Monetary Fund, Vertu, BBC Radio, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, British

☆ British tax cut spells trouble in store for next government
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt's big tax cut surprise could help the ruling Conservatives recover some favour among voters, but it threatens to store up budget problems for whichever party wins power after the expected 2024 election. Combined with his decision to make permanent the incentives for business investment announced earlier this year, Hunt's package of tax cuts would be worth about 20 billion pounds ($25 billion)a year by the 2028/29 tax year. "The giveaways announced today are funded by handing whoever wins the next election implausibly large spending cuts," Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said. Hunt is likely to remain under pressure from within his party to go further with more tax cuts in a final pre-election budget statement expected in March. "There's a material risk that those plans prove undeliverable and today's tax cuts will not prove to be sustainable," Johnson said.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Jessica Taylor, Handout, Jeremy Hunt's, Hunt, Liz, Rishi Sunak, Labour Party's, Rachel Reeves, Torsten Bell, Investec, David Jones, Paul Johnson, Johnson, William Schomberg, Elizabeth Piper, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Wednesday, Labour, Conservative, Bank of England, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, British

☆ UK's Jeremy Hunt to announce tax cuts aimed at reviving stagnant economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Autumn Statement budget announcement on Wednesday, facing pressure from within the ruling Conservative Party to implement tax cuts as the country's economy stagnates. Hunt will have more money at his disposal than a year ago and is under pressure from the right of his party to enact tax cuts. He is expected to announce reductions in National Insurance and business tax, while one Treasury minister has suggested that personal taxes could also be coming down. While Hunt has not ruled out tax cuts, he has emphasized the fragile state of the economy and reiterated that reducing living costs is the government's priority. The U.K. Treasury last week announced £4.5 billion ($5.6 billion) in funding for British manufacturing to boost investment in eight sectors across the U.K., available for a five-year period from 2025.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak's, Liz Truss, Hunt, Sunak Organizations: Finance, Conservative Party, Bank of England's, National Insurance, Treasury, Labour Party Locations: U.K

Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London

LONDON (AP) — Britain's Conservative government will try to win favor with voters by cutting taxes but avoiding worsening inflation in a budget statement Wednesday, coming ahead of a likely national election next year that opinion polls suggest it will lose. Sunak said Monday that his government would “cut tax and reward hard work” but would “avoid doing anything that puts at risk our progress in controlling inflation." Political Cartoons View All 1262 Images“Now that inflation is halved and our growth is stronger — meaning revenues are higher — we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax,” he said. The election must be held by January 2025, with speculation focusing on May or sometime next fall. Arguably, cutting personal taxes will make that “journey” more difficult because it would likely raise consumer spending, thereby ratcheting up price pressures.

Persons: —, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt's, ”, “, ” Sunak, Liz Truss, Hunt, There's, hasn't, “ Hunt, Kallum Pickering, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Conservative, Conservative Party, Labour Party, Bank of, Bank of England Locations: Ukraine, Berenberg

☆ Japan's Nikkei seen rising to 35,000 by mid-2024 on earnings boost: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A man looks at an electric board displaying the Nikkei stock average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2023. The median forecast for the Nikkei's level in mid-2024 was 35,000, with responses ranging from 31,143 to 39,500, the Reuters poll of 10 stocks strategists taken Nov. 10-20 showed. Japan's equity benchmark started this week by pushing to its highest level since March 1990 at 33,853.46 following a three-week winning streak. That would mean some stagnation for equities in the latter half of next year, with the Nikkei still stuck at 35,000 at year-end, according to the median poll response. "35,000 looks to be about the level where Nikkei gains line up with the timing of the BOJ getting rid of negative interest rate policy," Sycamore said.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masayuki Kichikawa, IG's, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Kevin Buckland, Junko Fujita, Noriyuki, Rahul Trivedi, Pranoy, Alex Richardson Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, IG's Sydney

☆ UK borrowing figures give Hunt some room for tax cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Government borrowing between April and October totalled 98.3 billion pounds ($122.49 billion), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday. The data meant borrowing was running about 22 billion pounds higher than in the same period last year but almost 17 billion pounds less than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in March, giving Hunt some fiscal room for manoeuvre. The ONS said that in October alone, public sector net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, was 14.9 billion pounds last month. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to public sector net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, of 12 billion pounds in the month. The figure was also higher than the OBR's forecast for borrowing of 13.7 billion pounds in the month.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Laura Kuenssberg, Isabel Infantes, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Liz, Michal Stelmach, Stelmach, William Schomberg, Kate Holton, Jason Neely Organizations: BBC Broadcasting House, REUTERS, National Statistics, KPMG, Labour Party, ONS, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

☆ UK's Hunt to cut taxes to boost economy and election prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Buoyed by a fall in inflation, Hunt plans to use his Autumn Statement budget update speech to parliament to shift the government's focus to fixing the long-running weak growth problem of the world's sixth-biggest economy. The Times reported that Hunt would cut the headline rates of national insurance for around 28 million people and make tax incentives for business investment permanent. After the meltdown in British financial markets last year, triggered by the huge tax cut plans of former prime minister Liz Truss, Hunt and Sunak have promised to move carefully. Hunt and Sunak announced major tax-raising measures a year ago to assuage bond investors after Truss's mini-budget. Many analysts say that in the coming years whoever runs Britain will have to raise taxes further, not cut them.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Sunak, William Schomberg, Mark Potter Organizations: Conservative, Labour Party, The Times, Bank of England, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Thomson Locations: Britain

[1/5] Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt leaves 11 Downing Street for the House of Commons to deliver his autumn statement, in London, Britain, November 22, 2023. "After a global pandemic and energy crisis, we have taken difficult decisions to put our economy back on track," Hunt told parliament on Wednesday in his Autumn Statement fiscal update. Hunt pointed to OBR forecasts showing the government would meet its targets for the public finances, leaving open the possibility of further pre-election giveaways to voters in his full budget statement expected in early 2024. Sunak this week promised "responsible" tax cuts, mindful of last year's "mini-budget" turmoil in financial markets triggered by his predecessor Liz Truss's plans for much bigger tax cuts. This time last year, the newly installed Sunak and Hunt raised taxes sharply to quell the bond market mayhem.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Stefan Rousseau, Hunt, Rishi Sunak's, Paul Johnson, we've, giveaways, Johnson, BoE, Philip Shaw, Liz Truss's, Muvija M, Paul Sandle, Sarah Young, William James, Elizabeth Piper, Alistair Smout, Andrew MacAskill, James Davey, Suban Abdulla, Farouq Suleiman, Kate Holton, Sumanta Sen, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Labour, Labour Party, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Gross, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, Graphics, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, British

☆ Morgan Stanley: Forget ChatGPT and focus on the $4 trillion opportunity in enterprise AI — and the 16 stocks best positioned to profit from it
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Michael Wilson says the real opportunity lies in how AI will be used by companies, not by individuals. "Further our analysis suggests Generative AI technologies can impact the $2.1 trillion of labor costs attached to those jobs today, expanding to $4.1 trillion in three years in the US alone." But the slow and steady nature of business investments provides the enterprise AI longer staying power. That's why finding the best enterprise AI stocks now will pay dividends for the long-run: companies will stick with what they know, providing investors with strong returns for years to come. To that end, the 16 stocks below are Morgan Stanley's top enterprise AI picks right now.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Organizations: Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The European Union's executive commission lowered growth its expectations for this year and next, saying the economy “has lost momentum” as inflation discourages consumers and higher interest rates deter borrowing for purchases and investment. And the outlook is exposed to risks of trouble spreading from Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Nevertheless, “the main risk that we see is energy prices,” said Paolo Gentiloni, the EU's commissioner for economy. Meanwhile, government deficits and debt have declined after a burst of stimulus spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. "Importantly, this forecast foresees wage growth exceeding inflation, finally allowing workers to at least partially recovery purchasing power, Gentiloni said.

Persons: “, ”, Paolo Gentiloni, Gentiloni Organizations: United Arab, European Central Bank Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Brussels

About 1 in 5 American workers, nearly 30 million people, are bound by noncompete agreements, according to the Federal Trade Commission. Horror stories about companies using noncompete agreements to trap workers in middling jobs or punish them for taking their skills elsewhere for better pay prompted New York legislators to pass a bill last June that would ban noncompete agreements. "But the fact that I had to spend a year fighting off my former employer was just wrong.”A handful of states, including California, already ban noncompete agreements. Other states, including Minnesota and Oklahoma, have laws that void noncompete agreements if a person is laid off. Advocates for the bill argue that striking noncompete agreements will actually be good for innovation.

Persons: Kathy Hochul hasn't, Richard Tatum, “, Tatum, Joe Biden, she’s, ”, Paul Zuber, Sean Ryan, ” Ryan, ” ___, Khan, Maysoon Organizations: Federal Trade Commission, New, Public Policy Institute, Business Council, New York City, Hochul, Democrat, Associated Press, America Statehouse News Initiative, America, Twitter Locations: ALBANY, N.Y, New York, California, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Silicon Valley

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s economy slipped into a contraction in the third quarter, decreasing at an annual pace of 2.1% as consumption and investments shrank, the government reported Wednesday. The third quarter's performance was far worse than what had been expected, according to the financial services company ING, which had forecast an annual contraction of 0.5%. Political Cartoons View All 1247 ImagesPrivate consumption shrank an annualized 0.2% during the quarter, while corporate investment decreased 2.5%. Economic activity in the previous two quarters got a boost from recovering exports and inbound tourism. Public demand, which includes government spending, rose at an annual pace of 0.6% in the latest quarter.

Persons: ” Robert Carnell, ING's, Fumio Kishida, ___ Yuri Kageyama Organizations: TOKYO, ING, Auto, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan

☆ Australian inflation fight to be a drawn-out process, central bank assistant governor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A worker is reflected in a wall of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) head office in central Sydney, Australia, March 1, 2016. Speaking at a UBS conference, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Marion Kohler said inflation was still expected to decline but not expected to reach the top end of the RBA's 2%-3% target until the end of 2025. Consumer price inflation ran at 5.4% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 7.8% last year but above RBA expectations. As a result, the central bank revised up its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in its quarterly statement on policy released last week. Falling goods prices have led the slowdown in inflation, but domestically generated costs continued to rise, Kohler said.

Persons: David Gray, Marion Kohler, Kohler, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, UBS, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

Portugal's Prime Minister and Socialist Party (PS) Secretary General Antonio Costa looks on after winning the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, January 31, 2022. REUTERS/Pedro Nunes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLISBON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Portugal's premier Antonio Costa, who resigned this week, told foreign investors on Saturday the country was open for business and wanted to remain attractive despite an ongoing corruption probe into "green" energy projects. Costa stepped down on Tuesday over an investigation into alleged illegalities in his government's handling of lithium and hydrogen projects, as well as a large-scale data centre. The data centre project, Start Campus, has been dubbed "one of the biggest foreign direct investments in Portugal in recent decades". The company said it was cooperating with authorities but that neither the company nor any of its staff were the targets of the investigation.

Persons: General Antonio Costa, Pedro Nunes, Antonio Costa, Costa, illegalities, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Afonso Salema, Joao Galamba, Vitor Escaria, embarrasses, Catarina Demony, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Portugal's, Socialist Party, REUTERS, Rights, Savannah Resources, Authorities, Thomson Locations: Lisbon, Portugal, Rights LISBON, London, Savannah, Portuguese

☆ U.K. Economy Stagnates as High Interest Rates Take Toll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Eshe Nelson | More About Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The services sector contracted last quarter as the highest interest rates since 2008 have weighed on the housing industry. Britain’s weak economy mirrors the stagnation in Europe, where eurozone economies contracted 0.1 percent in the third quarter. Across the region, high interest rates intended to drive down inflation are weakening economic activity, with demand for loans dropping and consumer spending slowing. This contrasts with the United States, where the economy is growing strongly and defying expectations for a slowdown prompted by high interest rates. This weak outlook is driven by high interest rates, which are expected to have an increasingly heavy toll on the economy.

Persons: ”, Stephen Millard, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt Organizations: Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research Locations: Europe, United States, Germany

A general view of the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. In making that call the BoE report focuses mostly on consumption, which it estimates makes up about 60% of GDP. As a result, the BoE expects the fallout from rate moves to date to "grow over time" even if one-off quarterly hits have peaked. And whatever the slow-burning hit to growth and consumption, inflation surprises could well change the increasingly comfortable markets picture. BOE chart on GDP outlookBOE chart on consumption hit from rate risesReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan X: @reutersMikeD; editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Huw Pill, what's, BoE, Modupe Adegbembo, Andy Burgess, BOE, Mike Dolan, David Evans Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Bank, Reuters, AXA Investment Managers, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, British

The second largest contributor to real gross domestic product growth in the third quarter came from business inventories (1.3 percentage points). South Korea's KOSPI-100 equity index, which is usually a good proxy for global trade given its heavy weighting towards export-oriented firms, rebounded strongly through the end of July. But the index has since weakened, consistent with the renewed downturn in volumes shown in the global trade index. UNCERTAINTYUncertainty about the economic outlook and ambiguous data are usually greatest around turning points in the business cycle. Related columns:- Persistent U.S. services inflation dampens oil outlook (October 13, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing rebound will stretch diesel supplies (October 5, 2023)- Global container freight stuck in doldrums (June 23, 2023)- Global freight shows signs of bottoming out (April 27, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Stringer, Korea's, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Economic, Service, Real, Ministry of Transport, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, United States, Netherlands, CHINA, ASIA, Singapore, Asia, Europe, Japan, Narita, EUROPE Europe, Ukraine, Germany, doldrums

☆ US third-quarter economic growth seen fastest in nearly 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While the anticipated robust growth pace notched last quarter is probably not sustainable, it would demonstrate the economy's resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021. Others are not too concerned, noting the labor market continues to churn out jobs at a solid clip. Growth last quarter was also seen lifted by a smaller trade deficit, thanks to strong exports and increased inventory investment. But the labor dispute, which is costing auto makers millions of dollars per week, could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Joe Biden's, Sal Guatieri, Luke Tilley, it's, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Brian Bethune, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Business, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, BMO Capital Markets, Consumer, Wilmington Trust, Labor, Labor Department, U.S, Treasury, Financial, Group's, BNP, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Brooklyn , New York City, U.S, Toronto, American, Wilmington, Philadelphia, New York

☆ US growth boom tees up year-end bust
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The latest report on the country's growth is worth celebrating, but not for too long. Household incomes after inflation and taxes fell by $71 billion in the third quarter, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. That shrank in the third quarter, with managers flagging peak interest rates as a larger concern, leaving less in the pipeline. Yet stores spent $81 billion in excess inventory last quarter and are likely to wait to restock shelves. Last quarter’s boom should give way to a bust.

Persons: Lee Jae, LSEG, Ben Winck, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Rights, Reuters, Macroeconomics, Savings, Companies, X, Unilever, Thomson Locations: U.S

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