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CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. CNBC's Sarah Min breaks down how a rate cut could affect the S&P 500 . Welcome to U.S. rate cut week! But given that the rate cut has been so clearly telegraphed by the Fed, it's hard to imagine it not happening. This cut might not be big in terms of basis points, but it will be big in what it signals to markets.
Persons: It's, Sarah Min, Biden, Donald Trump, Rafael Barros, Cat Stevens, Aditya Bhave, CNBC's Pia Singh, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Discount, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Republican, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Secret Service, U.S, Federal, Fed, Bank of America U.S Locations: Washington , DC, Florida, U.S
BEIJING — China's retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in August all grew slower than expected, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Saturday. Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the January to August period, slower than the forecast of 3.5% growth. The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, an uptick from 5.2% in July. The youth unemployment rate in July was 17.1%.
Persons: Liu Aihua Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Investment, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Hangzhou, China, BEIJING
"This is Hainan trying hard to forge its branding as an international destination," said Michael Zhou, founder of Jingjian, a consultancy specializing in China tourism. The tropical island of Hainan, dubbed the "Hawaii of China," has long been a top travel destination for domestic tourists. According to Zhou, the bulk of Hainan's tourism income comes from hotel stays and duty-free shopping. "As it is the largest duty-free channel in China, Hainan's duty-free sales decline is inevitable," said Charlie Chen, head of Asian Research at China Renaissance, a financial institution. Ye and the China connectionCDF Haikou International Duty Free City is one of many duty-free malls on the Chinese island of Hainan.
Persons: Du, Ye, Michael Zhou, Zhou, netizens, Ye's, Charlie Chen, Hainan's, Luo Yunfei Organizations: straitlaced Communist Party, Communist, Hainan's Provincial, of Statistics, Haikou, Asian Research, Duty, China News Service, Getty Locations: Hainan, Shanghai, China, Weibo, Beijing, Ye, Hawaii
China's slow post-Covid recovery could be a lasting headwind for its stock market. With the mainland's two largest indexes — the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite — each negative so far in 2024, KraneShares Chief Investment Officer Brendan Ahern thinks government stimulus is necessary to kick-start the country's stock market performance. Ahern, whose firm runs the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) , added that Chinese households are still reluctant to spend at pre-pandemic levels. This week's post-earnings plunge in PDD Holdings is emblematic of China's consumer pullback, according to Ahern. Ahern returned to the idea that a top-down economic recovery might be necessary to stimulate China's tech sector in particular.
Persons: China's, Brendan Ahern, CNBC's, we've, Ahern Organizations: Shenzhen, CSI China Internet, country's National Bureau, Statistics, Holdings Locations: Shanghai, China, country's
Australia's second-quarter wages rise at slowest pace in a year
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Australian wages rose at their slowest pace in a year in the June quarter, falling short of expectations, while softer gains in the private sector suggest the labor market was easing. "The RBA will be somewhat relieved to see wage pressures subsiding," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "However, absent an improvement in productivity growth, the current pace of wage growth is still a little too strong for inflation to return to target quickly." The overall increase in annual wages was still just enough to take it above inflation of 3.6%, a welcome return to real pay growth after years of negative outcomes. Incomes will get an added boost from a major round of tax cuts that started in July.
Persons: Sean Langcake Organizations: Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia
The latest global market volatility has reinforced China's status as a distinct market, even if its growth has slowed recently. While U.S. tech stocks plunged and Japanese stocks swung wildly in a historic two days of price action , Chinese stocks suffered less . The investors remained net buyers of Chinese stocks for the third quarter so far as of Aug. 6, the data showed. Finally, the low correlation of the China stock market with the U.S. stock market could provide investors with diversification benefits." Chinese stocks, especially those traded on the mainland, have historically been less correlated to global market moves due to Beijing's capital controls and other restrictions.
Persons: Matt Wacher, William Yuen, Invesco, That's, Steven Sun, Paul Christopher, Morningstar's Wacher, it's, Wacher Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Morningstar Investment Management, U.S, HSBC, Technology, Shanghai —, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HSBC Qianhai Securities, National Bureau, Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Index Locations: Asia, U.S, Shanghai, China, Pacific, EPFR, Hong Kong, Bank of China, Wells Fargo
BEIJING — China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, boosted by a surge in pork prices, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June. Prices of pork, a widely consumed food staple in China, surged by 20.4% year-on-year in July. Pork prices play a significant role in China's consumer price index, but can be prone to large swings due to disease or other factors affecting production. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year in July.
Persons: That's Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, CPI Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China
China's pet population will be close to double that of its young children by 2030 as young Chinese remain unwilling to start new families, Goldman Sachs said in a recent note. The country's urban pet population is set to hit over 70 million by the end of the decade, while the number of children four and under will dwindle to less than 40 million, according to Goldman Sachs research that cited data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2017, the situation was just the opposite — there were 90 million children aged four and under, compared to the urban pet population of around 40 million. "We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation," the investment bank's equity analyst Valerie Zhou wrote. New births in the country are projected to fall at an average rate of 4.2% until 2030, largely driven by a decline in the population of women aged 20 to 35 years, and as the younger generation is less inclined to have children, the report stated.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Valerie Zhou Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics
Read previewChina's baby bust could see its urban pet population outnumbering the number of toddlers by 2030, investment bank Goldman Sachs wrote in a July 28 report. According to Goldman Sachs' forecasts, China will have more than 70 million urban pets by 2030. AdvertisementThe rise in pet ownership, the bank said, could help push China's pet food market to $12 billion by 2030. People having more pets than babies shouldn't be surprising considering how China is presently grappling with a demographic crisis. China's population shrank again in 2023, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births by 2.08 million people.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Lin Zhang, Zhang, Zheng Mu, Zheng, Cash, haven't, Bihan Chen, Emily Huang, Huang, Ann, Hunter van Kirk Organizations: Service, Business, country's National Bureau of Statistics, University of New, Zhang, National University of Singapore, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Bloomberg Intelligence Locations: China, country's, University of New Hampshire, Europe, East Asia
China's industrial profits grew at a faster clip in June, official data showed on Saturday, even as businesses were grappling with a downshift in consumers' sentiment amid a shaky economic recovery. A 3.6% year-on-year rise in profits last month followed a 0.7% gain in May, while first-half earnings were up 3.5%, accelerating from a 3.4% increase in the January-May period, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed. Roughly half of more than 10 mainland-listed alcoholic beverage firms that had released forecasts for H1 earnings expected a loss-making first half. State-owned firms reported profits up 0.3% in the first half, foreign firms recorded an 11% gain, while private-sector companies booked a 6.8% rise, according to a breakdown of the NBS data. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.75 million) from their main operations.
Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Nvidia Locations: Lujiazui, Shanghai, China, Suzhou
Li, 27, is part of a growing base of Chinese workers swapping high-pressure office jobs for flexible blue-collar work. But these firms are slowly losing their appeal as China’s economy faces headwinds including a property crisis, declining foreign investment and slumping consumption. The trend to move from professional to manual jobs comes amid surging demand for blue-collar workers, according to Chinese recruitment platform Zhaopin. And blue-collar workers’ pay has also gone up, attracting more people to jobs they might have previously avoided. Pressure of another kindBut some wonder if blue-collar work is truly the stress-free refuge people like Li and Wang imagine it to be.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — Leon Li, , Li, , Alice Wang, Wang, , Larry Hu, Zhang Yuxiao, David Goodman, commenter Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Workers, NBS, University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Chengdu, , Macquarie, Shanghai
While it offered few clues on how to tackle economic difficulties, the meeting did provide further insight into a shake-up of high-level personnel over the past year. If past sessions are a guide, a more detailed report may be released in the following days, but for now, “the plenum communique is light on specifics,” Evans-Pritchard added. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy. Emphasizing short-term economic policies is rare in the history of the third plenums, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Qin, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, Jinming, Evans, , ” Evans, Mao, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Central, Defense, Liberation Army Rocket Force, of America, National Bureau, Statistics, Analysts, Macquarie Group Locations: Hong Kong, party’s, Beijing, China, policymaking, outflows, United States, Mao China
The fleet of 500 vehicles operating in the city belongs to Apollo Go, a unit of Chinese tech giant Baidu (BIDU). There have also been complaints from residents in Wuhan about traffic jams, as driverless cars fail to respond to traffic lights. Uncertainty over the safety and reliability of driverless cars has cast a long shadow over the industry in the US. Last week, authorities in Shanghai’s Pudong New Area started handing out licenses to driverless car operators, including Apollo Go and Alibaba-backed AutoX, according to state media China Daily. California-based startup Pony.ai, backed by Toyota and Saudi Arabia, was also given the green light to test driverless vehicles in the financial hub.
Persons: You’ll, ” Tu Le, robotaxi, Apollo Go’s, Apollo, Waymo, Elon Musk, Go Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Weibo, Baidu, Global Times, Sino, CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Apollo Go, United, GM, Department of Justice, McKinsey, Pudong New Area, Toyota, Beijing Municipal Bureau of, Information Technology, People’s Daily Locations: China, Hong Kong, Wuhan, Weibo, United States, United Arab Emirates, California, Beijing, Shenzhen, Pudong, . California, Saudi Arabia, Bao’an district, People’s
Chinese-made cars wait to be loaded onto a ship for export at Yantai Port on July 12, 2024, in Shandong province of China. BEIJING — China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll. Industrial production, however, beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, higher than Reuters estimate of 5% growth. Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, meeting expectations. The National Bureau of Statistics did not hold a press conference for the data release.
Organizations: Yantai Port, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Investment, National Bureau Locations: Shandong province, China, BEIJING
Read previewChina's belt-tightening consumers are dragging on the country's economy even as external demand supports exports, official data released on Monday shows. The fresh data shows China's economy continues to be bogged down by its real-estate crisis , stock-market volatility, geopolitical headwinds, and demographic challenges. AdvertisementPeople are just not spending enoughEven though disposable income grew in the second quarter of this year, consumers in China are reluctant to spend. Economic outlook for the second half of the yearChina's economic outlook isn't that rosy for the second half of this year either. However, they added that headwinds remain in the second half of the year, including the "tapering of post-COVID pent-up consumer demand."
Persons: , Nomura, China's, Donald Trump's, Yeap, Rong Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics —, Reuters, Business, Bureau of Statistics, Nomura Locations: China, Beijing
China’s economy slowed markedly through the spring after a strong start this year, according to official data released on Monday, as a real estate crash caused consumers and companies to spend more cautiously. In a country known for strict controls on the flow of information, the Chinese government is maintaining a particularly tight grip ahead of the party gathering, known as the Third Plenum, which typically takes place every five years. China’s statistical bureau canceled its usual news conference that accompanies the release of economic data and Chinese companies are mostly avoiding the release of earnings reports this week. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that the economy grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months, a little below the expectations of most economists in the West. When projected out for the entire year, the data indicates that China’s economy grew during the spring at an annual rate of about 2.8 percent — less than half its growth rate in the first three months of this year.
Organizations: Communist Party, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Beijing
Consumers are shopping at a supermarket in Qingzhou, China, on June 12, 2024. BEIJING — China's consumer price inflation rose by 0.2% in June from a year ago, missing expectations, while producer prices fell in-line with forecasts, data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed. China's consumer price index was expected to rise by 0.4% year-on-year in June, according to a poll by Reuters. The producer price index, which measures factory-gate prices, dropped by 0.8% from a year ago — in line with expectations. Core CPI, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in June, slightly slower than the 0.7% increase for the first six months of the year.
Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, CPI Locations: Qingzhou, China, BEIJING
Chinese e-commerce giants try to lure in customers with attractive salesHistorically, e-commerce has accounted for a hefty chunk of China's retail spending. AdvertisementIn 2023, online retail sales nationwide reached $2.12 trillion, accounting for 27.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. China's youth unemployment rate stood at 14.9% as of December, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. And the average per capita income in China in the first quarter of 2024 was $905, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that new home prices in 70 major Chinese cities were down 0.7% from April.
Persons: , they've, Alibaba, JD.com, Allison Malmsten, Yaling Jiang, they're, Jiang, Evergrande Organizations: Service, Business, CNBC, National Bureau of Statistics, Apple, Daxue Consulting, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: China
Washington CNN —A vast swath of the US economy is showing signs of weakness as unemployment rises to its highest point in more than two years. “When you think of services, a lot of it is driven by the consumer, and consumers are key to where the US economy goes,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told CNN. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, has already moderated over the past few months, government statistics show, and retailers themselves have said they’ve noticed shoppers across the income spectrum change their purchasing behavior. The bottom 60% of households by income accounted for a larger proportion of spending on health care services. These firms have added 168,000 jobs a month, on average, from April through June, according to fresh Labor Department data released Friday.
Persons: , ” James Knightley, “ We’re, Knightley, Scott Hamilton, Gallagher, It’s, Tesla, China’s Geely, Laura He, Elon, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Institute, Supply, ING, CNN, Commerce, Service, Labor Department, EV, Volvo, SAIC, Elon Musk’s, Business, Committee, Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Services, Chicago Fed, Pepsico, Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Brands, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, The, New York Mellon, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, United States, California, Jiangsu, China, Shanghai, Wells Fargo
Advertisement'Naked resignation'One popular phrase on Chinese social media is "两点一线," which translates to "two points, one line." And discussion is rife on Chinese social media about 裸辞 — a term that translates, quite literally, to "naked resignation." Examples seen in BI's search of the keyword included "how much to save before naked resignation," "three things to consider before naked resignation," and "20 jobs to try after naked resignation." Advertisement"There are articles on Chinese social media criticizing gap years," she said, "arguing that it is a Western concept that does not adapt well to Chinese society." "There's a popular internet buzzword among Chinese young people, "Gai溜子," which can be roughly translated to "drifter" on the street," Lim added.
Persons: , Jack Porteous, Tong, Porteous, aren't, Laurence Lim, Sally Maier, Yip, Qilai Shen, Lim, It's, Jack Ma, Qu Jing, Jenny Chan, Gen, Gai 溜 Organizations: Service, Business, Tong Global, Twitter, Publishing, Getty, Cherry, Consulting, Pictures, National Bureau of Statistics, Baidu, Hong Kong Polytechnic University Locations: China, Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Europe
Fertility rates across OECD countries have halved since 1960, according to a new OECD report. He said the three countries are disproportionately impacted by a rapidly aging population, largely due to improved standards of living, which have a "very strong inverse relationship with fertility rates." These improved conditions have led to a greater opportunity cost for having children, Xu said. Shrinking workforceA decline in fertility rate puts pressure on the economy and the society at large as the working population shrinks. China's policy shiftsIn China, policymakers have been putting a big emphasis on "productivity growth," Xu told CNBC.
Persons: Leren Lu, Darren Tay, Erica Tay, Tianchen Xu, Xu, BMI's Tay, Tay, Maybank's Tay Organizations: OECD, BMI, Risk, United Nations, Economist Intelligence, Economic Co, National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit Locations: China, Asia, South Korea, Japan, East, Southeast Asia, Maybank
China PMI: No end in sight for uneven economic story
  + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Hong Kong CNN —Factory activity among China’s private firms expanded at the fastest pace in three years, a private gauge showed Monday, suggesting healthier domestic and international demand for Chinese goods. The Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in June, up from 51.7 in May, according to a statement from S&P Global, which compiled the survey. The Caixin survey covers more export-oriented and consumer-related companies. The official PMI, however, is tilted more towards manufacturers that produce industrial materials — including steel, cement, and chemical — making them more vulnerable to a slowdown in fixed-asset investments. Analysts believe that the current data reflects an economic reality characterised by strong exports and consumption, but softer investment.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Wang Zhe, ” Wang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Factory, P, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Caixin Insight, European Union, EU Locations: Hong Kong, Siyang County, Suqian City, Jiangsu, China, European, United States
Read previewSome single Chinese women — fatigued from the social stigma of being unmarried and childless — are opting to run away altogether. These women — mostly millennials in their mid to late 30s — are taking to the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu to talk about their great escape to the West. These women, per their accounts, are enrolled in higher education in countries like France, the UK, and the US. In these diary-style posts, the women talk about how higher education in the West has been their ticket to freedom. AdvertisementLeftover womenThere are several push factors that may be motivating more Chinese millennial women to seek greener pastures abroad.
Persons: , who've, Claudia Ke, Ke, Susu, she'd, childrearing, Emily Huang, BI's Kevin Tan Organizations: Service, US, Business, China, Burgundy School of Business, University of Cambridge, China Centre for Economic Research, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: France, China, Shanghai, Europe, Cambridge, England, Peking
Prices in 70 major cities were down 0.7% in May from April, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures showed on Monday. According to separate calculations by the Macquarie Group, prices of existing homes in those cities fell by 7.5% year-on-year last month, marking the biggest decline on record. A month ago, Beijing unveiled wide-ranging measures to rescue the crisis-hit property market, including asking local governments across the country to buy unsold homes from beleaguered developers and easing rules on purchases. Measures, including efforts to provide cheap loans to state-owned enterprises for buying unsold homes from distressed developers, will “take time” to have an impact on the property market, the analysts said. Property investment for the first five months of the year dropped 10.1% from a year ago, according the NBS on Monday.
Persons: , Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Macquarie Group, Societe Generale, NBS, Labor, Macquarie, HSBC, Communist Party Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
China's retail sales beat expectations in May, climbing 3.7% compared with a year ago, beating expectations of a 3% rise from a Reuters poll of economists. However, other economic metrics, such as industrial output and fixed asset investment, missed Reuters forecasts. Industrial output grew by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to the 6% increase expected, while fixed asset investment rose 4% compared to last May, just shy of the 4.2% forecast by the Reuters poll. On the other hand, the miss in fixed asset investment was dragged by a steeper drop in real estate investment. NBS said that excluding real estate, total fixed asset investment was 8.6% higher compared to last May.
Organizations: Reuters, National Bureau, Statistics, NBS Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
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