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☆ Analysis: Bearish fundamentals, buoyant charts complicate outlook for US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Technical indicators such as equity price movement largely show stocks are poised to continue a rally that has seen the S&P 500 climb 8% year-to-date, analysts who track them said. TECHNICALLY SPEAKINGThe S&P 500 (.SPX) has traded in a 9.7 percentage point range year-to-date, its narrowest range for comparable periods since 2017. Johnson, who has a year-end S&P 500 target of 4,625, is encouraged by the reversals in downtrends for many U.S. stock indexes. The S&P 500 has traded higher 83% of the time for the full year, returning an average 13.73%, when it hasn't dropped below the preceding year’s December low in the first quarter, a Piper Sandler analysis showed. The S&P 500 is trading at about 18 times 12-month forward earnings estimates compared to its long-term average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

That spread , which has been in negative territory since November, plunged to new lows this week, standing at nearly minus 170 basis points on Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last year that the 18-month U.S. Treasury yield curve was the most reliable warning of an upcoming recession. "Powell's curve ... continues to plunge to fresh century lows," Citi rates strategists William O'Donnell and Edward Acton said in a note on Thursday. Refinitiv data showed the curve was the most inverted since at least 2007. But market participants believe tighter monetary policy is already starting to hurt growth and are betting on rate cuts later this year.

☆ Premarket stocks: These are the only stocks that matter right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Leading the way in growth are tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (FB). That’s been a boon to large cap tech stocks that are more sensitive to interest rates because they tend to borrow more than established companies and rely more on the prospect of future earnings. But it also means that the current market rally is thin, as the major indexes outperform the average stock. Strong outperformance from the largest stocks often power indexes to rise, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab, in a note Tuesday. But healthy markets should be characterized by greater participation of the “soldiers” — the rest of the stocks, she said.

Big investors including Kyle Bass and Bill Ackman argue the government must take quick action to avoid Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sparking more widespread withdrawals in the banking system. That could be determined by how hard the world's central banks continue to push interest rates higher. The market is signaling contagion could factor into the Fed's calculus, possibly prompting it to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Silicon Valley Financial Group was deeply woven into the fabric of the technology industry. Bass and Ackman separately warned that the government would have to move quickly in resolving Silicon Valley Bank to assure depositors.

☆ Premaket stocks: Auto sales are falling — but profits are surging. Welcome to the new normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The US auto industry just posted its worst sales in more than a decade — but that’s not necessarily a bad sign for the sector. What’s happening: 2022 was the worst year in more than a decade for the auto industry, largely because manufacturers couldn’t keep up with consumer demand. To put that into historical perspective, auto sales topped 17 million each year between 2015 and 2019, before Covid. But the auto industry saw sky-high profits even as sales plummeted. The auto industry has entered a new era: Less choice, higher prices and larger profit margins.

☆ Analysis: Investors look to emerging markets as planets align for end of dollar bull market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback. Signs of a broader turn in dollar sentiment are visible in the buck’s 8% decline against a basket of developed market currencies from its September highs. "The planets are lining up for a dollar bear market," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US. Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Conversely, tightening by central banks around the world also risks sparking a global recession, a scenario some believe could hurt emerging market currencies and help the dollar.

☆ Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Crowd of dollar bulls raises risk of violent pullback
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some investors worry the dollar trade has become excessively crowded, raising the risk of a sharp unwind if the case for owning the currency changes and investors try to exit their positions all at once. International Monetary Market speculators held a net long U.S. dollar position of $10.23 billion for the week ended Sept. 20. Barring a brief period of peak pandemic-related uncertainty, broad net options positioning data going back to 2014 shows U.S. dollar long positions are the most stretched ever, according to Morgan Stanley. While a hotter-than-expected u.s. inflation report in August dashed those hopes and sent the dollar higher, the dangers stemming from the crowded dollar trade have only grown, investors said. But with the dollar scaling new multi-decade highs, positioning for a pullback can be painful.

☆ Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, pledges more hikes to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised benchmark interest rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point and indicated it will keep hiking well above the current level. Along with the massive rate increases, Fed officials signaled the intention of continuing to hike until the funds level hits a "terminal rate," or end point, of 4.6% in 2023. Traders had fully priced in the 0.75 percentage point move and even had assigned an 18% chance of a full percentage point move, according to CME Group data. Futures contracts just prior to Wednesday's meeting implied a 4.545% funds rate by April 2023. Along with the rate increases, the Fed has been reducing the amount of bond holdings it has accumulated over the years.

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