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REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes/File Photo/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The pace and scale of rate hikes delivered by central banks around the globe in October slowed down dramatically following September's historic peak. The latest moves have brought total rate hikes in 2022 from G10 central banks to 2,050 bps. Emerging markets interest ratesMarkets had recently taken heart from indications that rate hikes from major central banks - especially the U.S. Federal Reserve - were slowing down. "We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy," said Boivin on Monday in a weekly outlook note from the world's largest asset manager. "We think the Fed, like other developed market central banks, will only stop when the severe damage from rate hikes is clearer.
One important part of the recession playbook is "obsolete" — and that's seeking shelter in bonds, according to BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. "We're underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don't think they can be a safe haven when recession comes," BlackRock wrote. Higher rates and inflation will create a "ripe environment" for investors to demand higher term premiums for long-term bonds, BlackRock said. The move sent financial markets into a tailspin , as investors ditched U.K. bonds and sold off the pound. What to buy Investors still looking to buy bonds should prefer inflation-linked ones as they are "not pricing in persistent inflation," BlackRock said.
The Fed and other central banks have underestimated the severity of the recession that their rate hikes could trigger, the asset manager said. But Boivin's team said that the Fed's cheerful economic projections overestimate the likelihood of a soft landing. "This soft landing doesn't add up to us," Boivin's team said. The global "rate-hike blitz" suggests that other central bankers share the Fed's optimistic outlook, according to Boivin's team. BlackRock warned that aggressive overtightening could trigger a downturn before inflation has cooled sufficiently, leaving central banks torn between raising and slashing rates.
The pain for stocks is far from over and investors should look elsewhere until the market comes to grip with a global recession caused by central banks, according to the BlackRock. "Many central banks aren't acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation," wrote Boivin and team. Bonds and stocks have both fallen sharply this year as the Federal Reserve and other central banks have hiked interest rates. We're tactically underweight developed market (DM) stocks and prefer credit," the note said. One area of stocks where BlackRock is bullish comes from the transition to clean energy.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoSept 19 (Reuters) - Just months ago, investors worried the Federal Reserve was not fighting inflation aggressively enough. Several jumbo rate hikes later, some now fear the Fed will plunge the economy into recession by tightening monetary policy too quickly. Investors are also pricing in meatier rate hikes down the road, with the terminal rate for U.S. fed funds now at 4.4%. read moreDoubleLine’s Chief Executive Jeffrey Gundlach, who had in June criticized the Fed for moving too slowly, told CNBC last week he was worried the Fed might hike rates too far. Some investors think the economy may be resilient enough to withstand a more aggressive Fed.
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