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Search resuls for: "Bloomberg Survey"


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☆ Inflation Slowed in April, Marking 10th Month of Moderation
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Inflation slowed for a 10th straight month in April, a closely watched report on Wednesday showed, good news for American families struggling under the burden of higher costs and for policymakers in Washington as they try to wrangle rapid price increases. Cheaper prices for airline tickets, new cars and groceries including eggs and produce helped to pull inflation lower last month even as gas prices and rents climbed briskly. In an important shift, prices for some services slowed — a positive for the Federal Reserve, which has been raising interest rates to slow the economy and wrestle inflation lower. Central bankers have been watching services costs carefully in part because they have been proving stubborn. As prices climb less dramatically with each passing month, they may become a less pressing concern.
☆ Jobs are strong, inflation is cooling — yet recession worries remain
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
In the optimist camp is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria last week a damaging recession can be averted. “I do think there is a path to bring down inflation while maintaining what I think all of us would regard as a strong labor market.”After months of inflation at close to 40-year highs, prices are cooling. By most measures, the job market is stronger today than it was in February 2020, before the Covid pandemic crashed the global economy. “I think the strong labor market and bringing down inflation are compatible goals,” Yellen said. Another read is that a recession, if there is one, will be mild and brief, without a big spike in the jobless rate.
☆ Home construction unexpectedly surged in February as slump in lumber prices offset pain of rising mortgage rates
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
US housing starts surged in February, with the upside surprise boosted by falling lumber prices in the month. Construction projects pushed through a period of rising mortgage rates. "New residential construction reflected improving builder optimism and declining lumber costs in February, even during a month of rising mortgage rates," George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, wrote Thursday. Rising mortgage rates and recession fears have dragged prices nearly 70% lower in the last year. "That said, we maintain that a sustained recovery in housing construction is out of the question, for now," Clancy said.
☆ Dow tumbles 345 points as the biggest bank failure since 2008 rattles nerves
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Stocks dropped sharply Friday after regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank. The bank failure is the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis and has sparked contagion fears. The index's financial sector was the worst performing on Friday as regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank to prevent a run on the tech-startups lender. The bank collapsed after this week saying higher interest rates spurred billions in losses on a $21 billion bond portfolio. "Silicon Valley Bank was heavily reliant on the tech industry, catering mainly to startups and the investors that fund them.
☆ Expectations for the Fed to downsize future rate hikes soar after CPI shows inflation cooled in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Investors on Thursday were pricing in a more than 90% chance the Fed will reduce the size of its interest rate hike in February. The more bullish view on a potential downshift was sparked by cooler prices in the December inflation report. But there are 'lingering pressures' within core inflation for the Fed to consider. Investors also chopped down expectations for a March 22 rate hike of 50 basis points, to 5.4% from 18.6%. Core CPI that excludes energy and food prices rose 0.3%, meeting expectations but it was slightly higher than 0.2% in November.
☆ Could the US avoid a recession in 2023? The case is gathering major steam.
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Moderating inflation and a strong labor market may mean that no recession will come in 2023. At the same time, the US labor market has looked at the possibility of a recession and essentially shrugged. Although the US saw higher gains in the first few months of 2022, the job growth in December still shows the labor market is hot. "Today's inflation numbers are good news, good news about our economy," President Joe Biden said during Thursday remarks. Regardless, the labor market will continue to cool, and the unemployment rate will still rise — which will be uncomfortable, Zandi said, but not a recession.
☆ Dow soars 700 points after December jobs and services activity reports boost hopes for Fed rate cuts
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
US stocks jumped Friday after December payrolls and services-sector data. The economic data showed signs of easing inflation, bolstering hopes the Fed will cut interest rates this year. The S&P 500 avoided a fifth consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's services-sector report showed prices paid decelerated while services activity shrank for the first time since May 2020. Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman sees just a 5% chance the S&P 500 pares back the losses it's logged since March 2022.
☆ The dollar jumps to a 4-week high as traders place bets on more Fed rate hikes after strong private payrolls report
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
A closely watched measure of the US dollar pushed to its highest in about a month on Thursday after a strong ADP jobs report. The US Dollar Index climbed past 105 for the first time since early December as the Fed is likely to stick to hiking interest rates. "Accordingly, traders have pushed up their expectations for the terminal interest rates in the US," with June fed funds futures contract implying a peak interest rate of above 5%. Such a move would put the fed funds rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The Fed views inflation as still "unacceptably high," the minutes showed.
☆ US stocks rise in choppy session after new economic data but S&P 500 logs 3rd-straight weekly loss
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
US stocks ended Friday's session higher, closing out the final full trading week of 2022. The day's data deluge included the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which was slightly higher than expected. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite marked their third straight weekly declines. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Stocks moved choppily during the session following a slate of economic reports.
☆ Why stocks aren't down even more on Friday's hot inflation report
  + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Will this data point suddenly make the Federal Reserve raise 75 basis points next week, versus the 50 basis point hike expected? (1 basis point equals 0.01%.) The dollar, which has been in a notable downtrend for the last month, rallied initially, then fell back. The managers collectively expect earnings to rise by an average of 10% next year (71% expected earnings to rise). Blackrock, in a pessimistic 2023 outlook, said "We find that earnings expectations don't yet price in even a mild recession."
☆ Daily stock buying by retail traders is near its lowest point all year as caution builds ahead of the final Fed meeting of 2022
  + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Risk-aversion toward stocks looks like it's setting in among retail investors as 2022 winds down. Average daily purchases have dropped to about $1 billion over the past month, around the year's lows, said Vanda Research. Flows "paint a picture of caution" before the last inflation report and Fed meeting in 2022. Tesla, however, remains a favorite among retail investors as the stock "continues to experience an incrementally higher flow of capital," said Vanda. Net retail purchases of Tesla stock were $666.3 million over a five-day period starting last week.
☆ The labor market is still really strong, but that means a recession next year could hurt even more
  + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
That red-hot labor market might mean more economic woes later on as the Federal Reserve steps in. "Big picture here is that the labor market still has a lot of resilience," Nick Bunker, the economic-research director at Indeed Hiring Lab, told Insider. With the thriving labor market, Bunker said "the risk of an imminent recession is relatively low." While the job market is still hot, it's not growing at the same breakneck speed as it was last year. "I don't think this report changes the Fed's view of where the labor market is today," Zhao said.
☆ Inflation remains persistently high at 8.2%—and more interest rate hikes are likely
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The rate of inflation rose by 0.4% in September, and remains well above its benchmark target of 2%, making the prospect of continued "jumbo" interest rate hikes more likely. That is slightly higher than many forecasts, including a Bloomberg survey of 51 economists that predicted a year-over-year inflation rate of about 8.1%. The prices for core goods continue to rise steadily, increasing by 0.6%, which is the same rate as the previous month. Another factor in September's elevated inflation rate is food costs, which increased 0.8%, the same rate of increase as August. Here's how much prices have increased over the past year for certain household goods and services, according to the Labor Department:
☆ Economists think one key inflation measure is headed back to a 40-year high, much to the chagrin of the Fed
  + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Ben Winck | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Economists expect core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — to rebound in September. An increase would make it even harder for the Fed to fight inflation without pulling the US into a recession. Should the projection prove correct, that will place core inflation back at the March peak and the fastest pace since 1981. Core inflation, meanwhile, rose in August to 6.3% from 5.9%, kickstarting the divergence that's expected to continue into the fall. Whether the September inflation data surprises to the upside or shows price growth slowing more than expected, either outcome is unlikely to change the Fed's plans.
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