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An incumbent hasn't lost his party's presidential nomination since Democrats passed over Franklin Pierce in 1856. Abraham Lincoln's election in 1860 marked the last time someone from a new party — in his case, the Republican Party — won the White House. But with the United States deeply divided and somewhat anxious about the prospect of another Biden-Trump campaign, third party candidates insist voters are restless enough to defy history. West announced last month that he no longer was running under the Green Party banner, but as an independent. Democrats assume that many of voters supporting a progressive environmental activist would likely have chosen Clinton if forced to choose between the major parties.

Persons: George Washington, hasn't, Franklin Pierce, Abraham Lincoln's, Republican Party —, ” Jill Stein, “, ”, Stein, Cornel, “ it's, Biden, Trump, Justice Department indicting Trump, Hillary Clinton, Clinton, umbrage, Dean Phillips, “ I’m, ” Phillips, ” Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Kennedy's, John F, Sen, Robert F, Joe Manchin, Utah Sen, Mitt Romney, Jennifer Franks, Romney, McKay Coppins, Manchin, invigorate centrists, he's “, Meg Kinnard, Leah Willingham Organizations: Republican Party, White, Biden, Trump, Green Party, West, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Justice Department, Republicans, wariness, Trump's, Clinton, Democratic, Rep, Minnesota, Democratic Party, Children’s Health Defense, Electoral College, GOP, Manchin Locations: United States, Minnesota, renominating, South Carolina, Manchin, Utah, Arizona, Michigan, West Virginia, Columbia , South Carolina, Charleston , West Virginia

☆ Biden voters motivated by stopping Trump -poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Reuters Editorial | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PoliticsBiden voters motivated by stopping Trump -pollPostedAmericans inclined to vote for Democratic President Joe Biden in the 2024 election say they are more motivated by stopping Donald Trump from returning to the Oval Office than they are by supporting the incumbent, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Biden, Trump, Democratic, Reuters

Some 50% of Biden supporters in the poll described their vote as being "against Donald Trump and his policies," compared to 38% who said they would be voting "to support Joe Biden and his policies." Twelve percent of Biden's supporters said they were unsure which reason better explained their pick. Among Trump's supporters, 40% said they would be voting against Biden and 42% said they would vote for Trump to support the Republican and his policies. The new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed significant support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, an anti-vaccine activist and scion of a storied political family. In a hypothetical three-way contest, 30% of poll respondents picked Biden, 32% picked Trump and 20% selected Kennedy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Jonathan Ernst, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, Republican Trump, Biden's, Michael Ceraso, Barack Obama's, Jesse Ferguson, Democratic Hillary Clinton's, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Jason Lange, James Oliphant, Nandita Bose, Scott Malone, Daniel Wallis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Democratic, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Trump, Democrats, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Tioga, Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ Why a 2024 Trump-Biden rematch might be more of a referendum on Trump than Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump could upend that dynamic, polling suggests, with most voters saying their decisions would come down largely to their feelings about Trump. In CNN’s exit poll following the last presidential election, when Trump was the sitting incumbent and Biden the challenger, 54% of voters cited Trump as the bigger factor in their vote. Anti-Trump voters – Biden voters who are motivated largely by antipathy for Trump – make up another 30% of the potential electorate. While 89% in this group agree that any Republican would be better than Biden, just 64% say Trump would be better than any Democrat. Nearly 1 in 5 anti-Trump voters say they’d back Haley (18%) or former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (19%) over Biden.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Trump’s, it’s, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, George W, Bush, John Kerry, they’d, –, Roe, Wade, They’re, they’re, Nikki Haley, Haley, Chris Christie, SSRS Organizations: CNN, Biden, Trump, Republican, Voters, GOP, Pro, Trump voters, Democratic, Trump voters – Biden, Trump –, Trump Biden, South Carolina Gov, Republicans Locations: Trump, New Jersey

☆ Consistent Signs of Erosion in Black and Hispanic Support for Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With more than a year to go until the election, there’s plenty of time for Mr. Biden to re-energize his former supporters. Weak support for Mr. Biden could easily manifest itself as low turnout — as it did in 2022 — even if many young and less engaged voters ultimately do not vote for Mr. Trump. Many of Mr. Biden’s vulnerabilities — like his age and inflation — could exacerbate the trend, as nonwhite voters tend to be younger and less affluent than white voters. Issues like abortion and threats to democracy may also do less to guard against additional losses among Black and Hispanic voters, who tend to be more conservative than white Biden voters. They may also do less to satisfy voters living paycheck to paycheck: Mr. Biden is underperforming most among nonwhite voters making less than $100,000 per year, at least temporarily erasing the century-old tendency for Democrats to fare better among lower-income than higher-income nonwhite voters.

Persons: Biden, Mr, Trump Organizations: Times, Mr, Biden Locations: Siena

☆ Opinion | Mark Meadows Is a Warning About a Second Trump Term
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Chris Whipple | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

But the crimes Mr. Meadows is accused of are orders of magnitude greater than those of his predecessors. Mr. Meadows didn’t just act as a doormat to President Trump; he seemed to let everyone have his or her way. This made no sense, but it was just the way Mr. Meadows rolled. As part of the efforts to subvert the 2020 election, Mr. Meadows paraded a cast of incompetent bootlickers into the Oval Office. All the while, the indictment shows that Mr. Meadows was sharing lighthearted remarks about claims of widespread voter fraud.

Persons: Meadows, Nixon’s, —, Trump, Chris Liddell, Joe Biden, Trump’s, bootlickers, Rudy Giuliani, Eric Herschmann, Biden, Mr, Giuliani, Herschmann, Rudy, he’s, Ronald Reagan, James A, Baker III, Reagan’s, who’d, Baker barged, ”, He’s, ” Mr, George Shultz, he’d, Reagan Organizations: White House, White Locations: Cobb County ,, United States

☆ Yellen's Las Vegas stop shows Bidenomics can be a tough sell
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLAS VEGAS, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Daemein Hargrove, 21, recently dropped plans for a four-year college degree to sign up for an apprenticeship program in Las Vegas that he says has given him higher pay, good medical benefits and a pension. But he's also shouldering gas costs of $500 a month as he commutes to a massive solar site 45 minutes outside of Las Vegas. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit Monday to the Las Vegas training center where Hargrove and nearly 700 other apprentices are being paid to work and learn new skills raises some questions about Biden's approach. Yellen's trip to Las Vegas won praise from union leaders, but drew scant public or local media attention. Casey Harrison, a political reporter at the Las Vegas Sun, said the coverage reflected a lack of demand but also inadequate preparation by the administration.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Leah Millis, Daemein Hargrove, Joe Biden's, Hargrove, They're, he's, He's, Biden, Republican Donald Trump, Janet Yellen's, Casey Harrison, Harrison, it's, we've, Gina Raimondo, Deb Haaland, Yellen, what's, Barack Obama's, Rachelle Warren, Warren, It's, Andrea Shalal, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: Treasury, Development Finance, Strategic, International Studies, REUTERS, LAS VEGAS, U.S, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Republican, Democrats, Las Vegas, NBC, Las, Sun, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, Biden, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Las Vegas, United States, Vegas, Nevada

Six percent of Biden's 2020 voters picked Trump. Forty-two percent of Biden's 2020 voters in the poll said the economy was "worse" than it was in 2020, compared to 33% who said it was "better" and 24% who said it was "about the same." Most of Biden's 2020 voters in the poll - 78% - said they approved of his performance as president, well above his 40% approval rating among all respondents. But a critical division exists among Biden's 2020 voters. When poll respondents were asked to describe how much Biden and his administration have invested in the U.S. economy, 35% of Biden's 2020 voters selected the option "not enough."

Persons: Joe Biden, Jonathan Ernst, Biden, Donald Trump, Chris Jackson, Jackson, Jason Lange, Andrea Shalal, Scott Malone, Conor Humphries Organizations: Auburn Manufacturing, REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Trump, Democratic, White, Thomson Locations: U.S, Auburn , Maine, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah

Mr. Biden paid the overdue tax bill in 2021. Mr. Weiss’s office has also charged Mr. Biden in connection with the purchase of a handgun in 2018, when Mr. Biden falsely said on a government form that he was not using drugs. But as part of the deal, the Justice Department, under what is known as a pretrial diversion agreement, said it would not prosecute Mr. Biden on the charge as long as Mr. Biden no longer owns a weapon and remains drug free for two years. As president, Mr. Trump, realizing that Mr. Biden was the candidate with the best chance to beat him in 2020, tried to weaponize Hunter Biden’s business dealings against his father. At the height of the 2020 election, Mr. Giuliani and other Trump confidants believed they had an October surprise that would catapult Mr. Trump to re-election when they obtained a cache of files from Hunter Biden’s laptop.

Persons: Hunter Biden, Biden’s, Biden, David C, Weiss, Harris, —, Justice Department meddled, General Merrick B, Garland, Maryellen Noreika, Donald J, Trump, Hunter, Trump’s, Christopher Clark, Mr, Beau, Clark, Obama, Rudolph W, Giuliani Organizations: U.S, Trump, Biden Justice Department, Court, Biden, Republicans, Justice Department, Republican, Obama Locations: Delaware, Wilmington —, Ukraine, Ukrainian

Weeks later, Mr. Trump is the former President Trump. Instead, in a brief televised address shortly before 2:30 a.m., Mr. Trump furiously laid down his postelection lie. For weeks, Mr. Trump had been peppering him with tips of fraud that, upon investigation by federal authorities, proved baseless. The cavalry “is coming, Mr. President,” Kylie Kremer tweeted to Mr. Trump on Dec. 19. On Jan. 15, Mr. Trump acquiesced to an Oval Office meeting with Mr. Lindell, who arrived with two sets of documents.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joseph R, Biden, Justin Clark, Rudolph W, Giuliani, Clark, Weeks, Mitch McConnell, McConnell, Jared Kushner, McConnell’s, Biden’s, William P, Barr, Mr, Trump’s, Sidney Powell, Lin Wood, sleuths, MyPillow, Mike Lindell, Patrick Byrne, Stephen K, Bannon, Michael T, Flynn, platformed, Jared Taylor, Enrique Tarrio, Doug Mills, Eric, “ We’re, ”, Fox, Eric Trump, Newt Gingrich, Joe Biden’s, Kevin McCarthy, Laura Ingraham, Obama, Dennis Montgomery, Thomas McInerney, McInerney, John McCain, Bannon’s, “ it’s, Paul Gosar, Doug Ducey, Roy Blunt of, Roy Blunt, Anna Moneymaker, —, “, ” Mr, Mark Meadows, Josh Holmes, Kushner, — Mr, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Lindsey Graham, Sean Hannity, Lindsey Graham of, Sean Hannity’s, — I’ve, Let’s, Graham, Pat A, Axios, Brendan Smialowski, “ Hannity, Thomas, Jenna Ellis, Matt Morgan, Al Gore, George W, Bush, Brooks, Stefan Passantino, Powell, Lynsey Weatherspoon, Gore, William H, Rehnquist, Giuliani —, Kris Kobach, Mark Martin, Lawrence Joseph, Kobach, Uncle Sam, Mr . Biden, Ken Paxton, Jeffrey M, Landry, Paxton, Kyle D, Hawkins, Jacquelyn Martin, Joseph, Richard L, Chris Carr, Carr, Mike Johnson of, Mike Johnson, McCarthy, Privately, Ted Cruz of, John Sauer, ’, ” James E, Nicolai, North, Wayne Stenehjem, Stenehjem, Wayne, Tasos Katopodis, MAGA, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Marsha Blackburn of, Ms, Blackburn, Amy Kremer, Ann Stone, Roger Stone, Amy Coney Barrett, Kremer’s, Kylie Jane Kremer, Jennifer Lawrence, Dustin Stockton, Lawrence, Stockton, I’ve, Lindell, they’d, Taylor, Greg Locke, Covid, Michael McKinney, Tucker Carlson, Carlson’s, “ Donald Trump, ” Ms, Meadows, Georgia runoffs, Byrne, Cipollone, he’d, Martin, Mike Pence, reconvene, ” Kylie Kremer, James Yeager, Kylie Kremer, Yeager’s, Lawrence whooped, John Kennedy, James Lyle, Josh Hawley, “ You’ve, Lyle, Couy Griffin, Kennedy, Pete Marovich, Kremer, Julie Jenkins Fancelli, Alex Jones, Caroline Wren, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Donald Trump Jr, Katrina Pierson, Brad Raffensperger, Jeffrey A, Rosen, Department’s, Jeffrey Clark, Scott Perry, Hawley, Cruz, Year’s, Tom Cotton of, Cotton, Cindy Chafian, Chafian, Jones, Stone, Locke, Jan, “ You’ll, Gosar, Griffin, Robert O’Brien, I’m, ’ ”, Kenny Holston, Donald Trump, ” Mark Walker, Ben Margot, Stefani Reynolds, Samuel Corum, Erin Schaff, David J, Ted Cruz, John Bazemore Organizations: Twitter, Dominion Systems, Trump, Biden, Dominion, New, New York City, The New York Times, Senate, New York, Republican Party, Capitol, White, Times, The Times, America News Network, Fox, America, Boys, New York Times, American, Air Force, Electoral College, Republicans, Joe Biden’s Democratic Party, Republican, Facebook, Democrats, Associated Press, “ Fox & Friends, White House, West Wing, “, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Veritas, Justice Department, Postal Service, York Daily, Agence France, Zignal Labs, Amistad, Thomas More Society, Mr, Electoral, Supreme, Lawyers, General Association, Associated, State, University of California, Republican House, Women, Tea Party, Trump -, Breitbart, of, Credit, SPAN, Tea Party Express, Republican National Committee, Internet, Army, Des Moines Register, Marine, General Services Administration, Swedish, Cowboys, Capitol ., Street Journal, Save, General Association ., Law Defense Fund, Freedom, Coalition, Proud Boys, Willard, Homeland Security, Party, Getty, Georgia Electoral College Locations: Detroit, Arizona, Georgia, New York, America, China, Trump, Grand Rapids, Mich, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Santa Cruz ,, Arizona —, Russia, North Vietnam, United States, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Kentucky, Utah, Alaska, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Erie, Pa, Pennsylvania, Long, Bush, Florida, tightest, Kansas, North Carolina, Ken Paxton of Texas, Texas, State of Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Irvine, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Ted Cruz of Texas, Missouri, Washington, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Trump’s, Hudson, Stockton, Tennessee, Des Moines, Meadows, White, fistfights, Nashville, West Monroe, La, Louisiana, drumbeating, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Delaware

☆ What Really Happened in the Midterms?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More than eight months later, all the data from the 2022 midterm elections is — finally — final. The two most rigorous reports, from the Pew Research Center and Catalist, are finished. You might imagine ways to square the two claims, but neither report offers a clear way to reconcile these competing stories. Catalist, a Democratic data firm, doesn’t mention a word on the partisan makeup of the electorate, despite possessing the data to do so. The Pew report, meanwhile, is framed around explaining how Republicans won the House popular vote by three points — an important outcome, but one overshadowed by the Democratic hold in the Senate and the razor-thin Republican House majority.

Persons: ” Pew Organizations: Pew Research Center, Republicans, Biden, Democratic, Pew

If you had to describe Joe Biden as an animal, what animal would you pick? If you had to describe Joe Biden as an animal, what animal would you pick? Perhaps the most surprising answers came when we asked the 11 if they saw Mr. Biden as a strong leader and as someone who shared their values. If anything, this focus group underscored that Mr. Biden has vulnerabilities and that at least some Democrats and independents are open to other Democrats challenging him for the nomination. For now, many of these 11 voters seemed inclined to back him as the lesser of two evils — a phrase we heard time and again during the conversation.

May 17 (Reuters) - The swift growth of artificial intelligence technology could put the future of humanity at risk, according to most Americans surveyed in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Wednesday. More than two-thirds of Americans are concerned about the negative effects of AI and 61% believe it could threaten civilization. ChatGPT has kicked off an AI arms race, with tech heavyweights like Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Google (GOOGL.O) vying to outdo each other's AI accomplishments. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that the number of Americans who foresee adverse outcomes from AI is triple the number of those who don't. Those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 expressed higher levels of concern; 70% of Trump voters compared to 60% of Joe Biden voters agreed that AI could threaten humankind.

WASHINGTON — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego announced Monday he will run for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in December to become an independent. In his statement Monday, Gallego said: “The problem isn’t that Senator Sinema abandoned the Democratic Party — it’s that she’s abandoned Arizona. Karrin Taylor Robson, who narrowly lost to Lake in the 2022 primary after spending $20 million of her family’s money, is seriously considering a Senate run, a source close to her said. And Mark Lamb, the Pinal County sheriff, is also considering a Senate run in 2024, said an Arizona Republican source. A Gallego adviser said he's prepared for a two-way race if Sinema steps aside or a three-way race if she chooses to run.

Nationally, 32% of voters in 2022 said their vote was “to oppose Joe Biden.” But 28% said their vote was “to oppose Donald Trump,” even though Trump was out of office. About 30% of Pennsylvanians said their vote was to oppose Biden, while 26% said their vote was to oppose Trump. Only 6% of Biden 2020 voters supported Oz, while 8% of Trump 2020 voters backed Democrat John Fetterman. Nationally, 92% of Biden voters supported Democrats, while 7% peeled off to support Republicans. And 96% of Trump voters backed Republicans, while 3% broke for Democrats, the exit polls showed.

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