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As President Joe Biden readies to deliver his State of the Union address, here's a look at how Americans rated him in the latest NBC News poll, released late last month. Biden's approval rating is 45%, effectively unchanged since Nov.Biden's approval rating has stayed durable across NBC's polling since September, at either 44% or 45% (that includes a mix of polls of registered voters and a broader sample of adults). That's a significant improvement from the 39% approval adults gave him in May, but still far lower than the 53% approval rating he secured in April of 2021. Notably, 50% of adults disapproved of Biden in the most recent NBC poll, the lowest since August of 2021. Majority of voters have reservations about Biden running againLike the man he beat in the 2020 presidential race, former President Donald Trump, a majority of registered voters are uncomfortable with Biden running for president again.

Democrats voted this past weekend to say goodbye to Iowa as the first state on their presidential nominating calendar, a move likely to end the state's almost 50-year history leading off the Democratic race for president. Iowa has had a strong history of picking Democratic candidates that ultimately win the party's nomination — Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton all won Iowa caucuses the year their party tapped them as its presidential nominee. But that wasn't the case in 2020, when Democrat Pete Buttigieg ultimately won a caucus mired by technological mishaps that delayed the reporting of the results for days. It was that mishap, along with concerns from many Democrats about the lack of diversity among the electorate picking winners in each of the first two nominating states (Iowa and New Hampshire) that helped pave the way for this weekend's vote. For more on the Democrats' history with the Iowa caucus, and how it's mattered in key presidential races over the years, check out this deep dive from ahead of the 2020 caucus written by NBC News and MSNBC National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki.

Fifty-five percent of adults share that sentiment, while 31% of adults believe the GOP will strike the right balance and 11% say the GOP won't spend enough time on investigating Biden. Majorities of independents and Democrats believe the GOP will spend too much time on investigations into Biden, while a majority of Republicans believe they'll spend too little time. It is also the most popular investigation for Republicans (52%) and independents (30%), but tied for the least important investigation among Democrats, of which only 9% call it the most important investigation. Eleven percent say the GOP won’t spend enough time on investigating Biden. The second-most popular investigation is one into the Department of Homeland Security's handling of the border with Mexico, the selection of 27% of respondents.

The GOP-controlled House passes a rules package for 118th Congress with just one GOP defection, NBC’s Kyle Stewart reports. ... President Biden spends his final day in Mexico City at North American Leaders’ Summit. But first: The news that the Justice Department is reviewing Obama Era classified documents found at a think tank tied to President Biden is quite a political gift to Donald Trump. “When is the FBI going to raid the many homes of Joe Biden, perhaps even the White House?” Trump posted on his Truth Social account. 6: The number of shootings recently at or near the homes of New Mexico Democratic political leaders, including the incoming state House speaker.

The Democrats’ 2024 Senate map was already going to be tough, and it got a little bit harder now that Michigan Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced Thursday she would not run for re-election. Michigan is one of the five states President Biden won in 2020 by less than 4 percentage points where the Democrats currently have a seat up for re-election next year. And there are three more Democratic seats up in 2024 in states that Trump won. In other 2024 news:Gallego makes more moves: Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is making high-profile hires as he considers a Senate bid, Politico reports. Chris Sununu told Fox News “a lot of folks” want him to run for president and took a swipe at Florida Republican Gov.

The new House GOP majority returns to elect a speaker after failing on three votes Tuesday. ... Nancy Pelosi reacts to GOP dysfunction: “As one who loves this institution, I think it’s a sad day.” ... And President Biden appears with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell to tout the bipartisan infrastructure law. Andy Beshear) all appear at an event in Kentucky promoting a bridge improvement from the bipartisan infrastructure law. 16: How many years Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has served as Senate GOP leader, making him the longest-serving Senate leader ever, per NBC News’ Frank Thorp. Eyes on 2024: DeSantis takes office amid GOP chaosAs the GOP descended into chaos on Capitol Hill Tuesday, Florida GOP Gov.

Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries may not emerge with the speakership as Republicans remain divided on who they'll elect to lead the House of Representatives, but he's done something that hasn't been done in more than a decade. When the New York congressman secured 212 votes for speaker Tuesday afternoon, it was the first time since 2007 that a Democratic leader has won support from every single member of their caucus. Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., the new House Democratic Caucus chair, made note of his party's unified stance as he nominated Jeffries again during the second round of voting. We are unified, and we're all gonna support Hakeem Jeffries for speaker, the lead vote-getter in the last ballot," he said. California Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi had been the party's leader since 2003 — she stepped down from that leadership post after last year's elections.

There's still not an exact picture of how much Bankman-Fried spent on politics this cycle. But based on what's already public, Bankman-Fried was one of the more prolific campaign donors this cycle, and his spending had a significant effect on midterm races. And his donations to the Protect Our Future super PAC helped shape some key Democratic primaries. The group spent $1.4 million to boost her in her Democratic primary, and then she cruised to victory in the less competitive November general election. Other top racesThe group spent at least $500,000 in support of Democratic candidates in nine other races (parenthesis indicate whether they won the general election, even if the spending happened in the primary):

News of the FTX's fall first prompted questions to lawmakers about Bankman-Fried's political donations. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Boozman of Arkansas said they would donate Bankman-Fried’s campaign contributions, though they did not specify the charities they intended to donate the money to. Bankman-Fried also poured millions into super PACs that support candidates outside of their campaigns, including the Senate Majority PAC, or SMP, a super PAC supporting Democratic Senate candidates. The disclosed sums likely don't capture the full breadth of Bankman-Fried's political spending. "The candidates who received money from dark money organizations don't really have to answer for it," Sherman said.

Democrats both in Washington D.C. and Arizona spent the weekend processing Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the party and register as an independent. The Biden White House’s statement called her a “key partner” that they expect to continue to work with. A growing field in Indiana: Four Republicans could be running to succeed Indiana GOP Gov. This comes as Indiana GOP Sen. Mike Braun and the state’s GOP Lt. Gov. Fort Wayne businessperson Eric Doden has already announced his campaign, and the state’s Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers is expected to jump into the race as well.

While Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent, the move won't likely do much to complicate her path to appearing on the ballot in 2024 if she decides to run for re-election. According to the Arizona Secretary of state, a candidate who wishes to be on the general election ballot without affiliating with a recognized political party need to submit at least 43,492 valid signatures. That figure is about 3% of the unaffiliated registered voters in the state. It's a relatively low threshold as far as ballot access goes, suggesting that Sinema wouldn't have much trouble getting on the ballot if she wants to run again. That said, ballot access isn't the big political question looming over Sinema's party switch — that's the question about whether Democrats choose to nominate a candidate themselves, and what impact that might have on what could be a competitive three-way race.

We’re going to win Georgia,” Biden said in response to questions regarding his outlook on the Georgia Senate runoff contest as he exited Air Force One Tuesday night. Share this -Link copiedWarnock defeats Walker in Georgia Senate runoff, NBC News projects Sen. Raphael Warnock has won his second statewide runoff election in the last two years, defeating Republican Herschel Walker in the increasingly purple state of Georgia to capture a six-year term in the Senate, NBC News projected. Share this -Link copiedThe Senate runoff election is still too close to call, but Warnock leads The Senate runoff election between Warnock and Walker is still too close to call, but Warnock leads, NBC News' Decision Desk said just before 10 p.m. Share this -Link copiedPolls close soon in critical Georgia Senate runoff Polls are closing at 7 p.m. ET in the Senate runoff election in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker.

The turnout in the Senate runoff was nearly 75% to 80% of the entire turnout for the midterm election in November. Share this -Link copiedPolls close soon in critical Georgia Senate runoff Polls are closing at 7 p.m. ET in the Senate runoff election in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has a massive ad-spending and fundraising advantage over Republican Herschel Walker in the runoff election. In the 2022 general election, Warnock grew his advantage in Henry County, winning it by just over 31 points.

Share this -Link copiedGroups work to mobilize Latino voters in Georgia Senate runoff From giving away bingo-like Mexican lotería cards to Taco Tuesdays and World Cup watch parties, Latino voting mobilization efforts ramped up in Georgia leading into the Senate runoff election. Share this -Link copiedPolls close soon in critical Georgia Senate runoff Polls are closing at 7 p.m. ET in the Senate runoff election in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has a massive ad-spending and fundraising advantage over Republican Herschel Walker in the runoff election. In the 2022 general election, Warnock grew his advantage in Henry County, winning it by just over 31 points.

But first: The results from five counties will help tell us if Democrat Raphael Warnock is on track to win tonight’s Senate runoff in Georgia. Warnock got 56.9% of the vote in Cobb when he won the Jan. 2021 runoff, and he got just under that last November (56.8%). And in Gwinnett, Warnock got 60.6% of the vote in the 2021 runoff, compared with 58.9% last month against Walker. In rural Chattooga — one of NBC News’ “County to County” counties — Warnock got just 20.5% when he won the 2021 runoff, and he got less than that in the November general election (19.8%). Data Download: The number of the day is … $7.79 billionThat’s how much money was spent on political television, radio and digital ads this entire cycle (starting the day after the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff through today’s runoff), per AdImpact.

Gonzalez did his own spending and campaigning, but amid an onslaught of Republican spending in the region’s elections, the DCCC ads were welcome, Gonzalez’s campaign said. “We did historic investments when it came to Latino voters and voters of color,” said Maríafernanda Zacarías, DCCC senior adviser for Latino engagement. That Latino spending was just one portion of the big-money ultimately unsuccessful effort to hold the House Democratic majority. Democrats invested in holding their Latino support and “mostly succeeded,” said Angle, who runs the Lone Star Project supporting Texas Democrats. Republican Rep. Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith to return to Congress for California’s 27th Congressional District, based in northern Los Angeles.

WASHINGTON — If it’s Monday ... It’s the last day of campaigning before tomorrow’s Georgia Senate runoff. ... NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard covers the closing messages by Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. And just looking at the campaigns, which get the biggest bang per advertising buck, it’s Warnock at $25.2 million, versus Walker at $10.1 million. But now it’s $11.8 million — behind Warnock’s $25 million and the $20.3 million from Georgia Honor, a Democratic Super PAC. Runoff watch: Walker accuser speaks to NBC NewsDays after she first revealed an allegation of domestic abuse against Georgia Republican Senate hopeful Herschel Walker, a former girlfriend of his sat down with NBC News to detail those allegations.

Georgia set a new record Tuesday with 309,083 early votes cast for the state's runoff election, eclipsing the previous record set just one day prior. Gabriel Sterling, the chief operating officer at the Georgia Secretary of State's office, tweeted the news early Tuesday evening, hours after he joined Meet the Press NOW to discuss the uptick in turnout. Sterling noted that early voting on Sunday more than doubled the previous record for most early votes on a Sunday, with that momentum carrying forward into the week. "2021 was a very unique runoff with two Senate races and I think every dollar in America from Democrats, Republicans, independents alike all being funneled into one state for one get-out-the-vote sale two months after the initial election," he said. "We anticipate seeing a record for a four-week, turnout."

Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock raised $52.2 million for his re-election between Oct. 20 through Nov. 16, more than doubling the fundraising total of his opponent, Republican Herschel Walker. Warnock, the top fundraising federal candidate of the 2022 election cycle by a long-shot, spent $39.2 million over the same period, which almost doubled Walker's spend too. Walker still raised a significant amount over that fundraising period — $20.9 million. His campaign spent $16.5 million and closed with $9.8 million on hand. If you’re just getting read back in after the holiday week, here are a few other headlines you may have missed ahead of next week’s runoff:

The explosive demise of crypto giant FTX, led by billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, may have an outsized impact on politics — snuffing out the wealth of a budding potential Democratic megadonor. Bankman-Fried was the second-largest Democratic donor this election cycle by a longshot, according to the most recently available campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission, second only to philanthropist George Soros. The only Democratic donor to give more last cycle was philanthropist George Soros, whose $129 million dwarfed Bankman-Fried's. In fact, Bankman-Fried about as much as Democrats this cycle than each of the next-largest Democratic donors combined — Illinois businessman Fred Eychaner and Indiana philanthropist Deborah Simon. He had said his goal was to "do this in a bipartisan way," but this cycle had given 90% of his money toward Democratic causes.

In Arizona Senate, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is ahead of Republican Blake Masters by 115,000 votes with 80% in. On Dobbs, the national exit poll showed 27% of voters picking abortion as their No. And remember that our final NBC News poll found Trump as one of the most unpopular political figures we measured, especially compared with President Biden. In each state, those Democratic secretaries of state nominees were running against Republicans who cast doubt on the 2020 election result. Two of those five feature Democrat vs. Democrat contests, thanks to the state’s Top 2 primary, so those will stay in the Democratic column.

Proposition 26, which sought to bring point spreads to Native American casinos, was being rejected by 70.1% to 29.9%, tallies showed Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Proposition 27, the measure that sought to legalize online sports betting, was going down to even greater defeat by 83.3% to 16.7%. Proposition 26 garnered $120.7 million in donor support and $43.8 million in opposition efforts, according to the California secretary of state's contribution records. Meanwhile, Proposition 27 drew $169.5 million in support and $237.8 million in opposition. Proposition 27's backers didn't strongly oppose Proposition 26, whose backers aggressively fought the former measure in hopes of bringing Native American casinos a near-monopoly in sports betting.

Every election cycle, the NBC News Political Unit produces our Election Book to assist the network’s anchors, correspondents, producers and reporters in the field for Election Night. It contains essential information on almost every race, historical factoids, timelines, past exit polls, political trends and overarching narratives to help explain the current election cycle. It is our election bible, and we are making it available for you to read. You’ll be reading the material that our anchors, correspondents and producers will be relying on come Nov. 8 — and beyond. And you can keep up to date on the latest midterm elections news with the Meet the Press Blog as well as the NBC News midterm live blog.

And the House Democrats’ campaign arm last week deployed hundreds of thousands of dollars to save its chairman in a Biden district north of New York City. “And I think that right there explains why this red wave is going to be so big.”The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for House Democrats, said it isn't throwing in the towel. “Nearly a week from Election Day, House Democrats are well positioned to retain the majority despite a Republican gerrymandered map and MAGA Republicans’ dark money-fueled campaigns. Connecticut’s 5th District: Democrats have already spent $4.5 million to re-elect Hayes in a district that backed Biden 54.6% to Trump's 43.9% in the last election. Between now and Election Day, Democrats said they plan to spend an additional $1.5 million in ads to combat comparable spending by Republicans.

Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who is retiring this cycle after voting to impeach former President Donald Trump, is endorsing a slate of high-profile Democrats (and a few Republicans) in key midterm races. Kinzinger is also backing Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin in Utah, House Republican hopeful Larry Lazor in Connecticut and a state House candidate in Minnesota. Shapiro, Hobbs, Fontes, Benson and Murkowski are all running against Republican nominees backed by the former president and who have all at least questioned the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s election. While not backed by Trump, Nevada Republican secretary of state nominee Jim Marchant and Minnesota Republican secretary of state nominee Kim Crockett have also cast doubt on the 2020 election. While Lee subsequently voted to certify the 2020 election, opponents have used those texts to argue he lent a hand to those who sought to discredit the election.

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