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☆ Analysis: Fall in India nominal GDP growth in FY24 to challenge fiscal math
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At least four leading economists expect nominal GDP growth to come in between 8% and 11% as inflation slows and real GDP growth eases from an estimated 7% this year, when pandemic-related distortions and pent-up demand pushed up growth rates. Das said he expects nominal GDP growth of 8%-9% in FY24, with inflation and real GDP growth seen declining. A growth of 8-9% would bring that number close to the 7.6% nominal growth seen in 2019/20, before the Covid crisis hit. State Bank of India and rating agency ICRA estimate the nominal GDP growth at around 10% for next financial year. "Higher-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth,(will help) to keep fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP at 6.4%, with downside risks," it said.

The government uses the estimates as a basis for its growth and fiscal projections for the next budget due on Feb. 1. Since September, economists have been cutting their 2022/23 growth projections to around 7% due to slowing exports and risks of high inflation crimping purchasing power. India's nominal growth, which includes inflation, is projected to be at 15.4% for 2022/23, up from an earlier 11.1% estimate. "The nominal GDP growth is higher, implying that the government's fiscal deficit target will be achieved," said Sabnavis. "Buoyant albeit mixed domestic consumption should help to stave off some of the pain arising from weak exports during this period," Aditi Nayar, economist at ICRA.

☆ India's current account gap widens to 9-year high
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 29 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit widened in the July-September quarter as high commodity prices and a weak rupee increased the country's trade gap, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Thursday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit (CAD) (INCURA=ECI) was $36.40 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2022/23, its highest in more than a decade. The median forecast of 18 economists in a Dec. 5-14 Reuters poll was for a $35.5 billion CAD in the July-September quarter. The RBI said services exports reported growth of 30.2% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, driven by exports of software, business and travel services, while net services receipts increased sequentially and y-o-y. "Slowing global growth entails both merchandise as well as services exports will remain muted," she said.

☆ India's c.bank set to raise rates; outlook on growth, inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe central bank's outlook, which will accompany the rates decision, will be an important pointer to future policy moves, economists said. Global crude oil prices have been falling in recent months but has yet to be reflected in domestic prices. Sabnavis, who does not see the RBI reducing its inflation forecast, pointed out that though global oil prices have come down, the government has not relaxed duties or taxes. "Hence, the consumer is still paying the same price and has not derived any benefit from declining oil prices." Lower oil prices may also be countered by higher than expected food prices.

☆ India cenbank hikes key policy rate by 35 basis points
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

However, the pace of rate hikes is reducing from 50 bps to 35 bps, in line with expected global hikes." The market needs to keep a close watch on global rate hikes and sticky core inflation." "We expect RBI to go for another 25 bps hike in its next policy, with the terminal rate at 6.5%. ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI"The 35 bps rate hike by the RBI - the fifth consecutive rate hike this year - comes as no surprise. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause."

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India posted annual economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, less than half the 13.5% growth in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy. Economists warned, however, that growth momentum may ease in the December quarter due to higher interest rates and slowing exports. "Even as domestic growth drivers on services side continue to remain robust, weakening global demand amid tightening financial conditions remains the key risk for growth outlook for India," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital. Slowing global growth has also started to hurt exports, which fell 17% over a year ago in October. "Services on the supply side and investments in the demand side would continue to be the main drivers of growth," said Sujan Hazra, chief economist at Anand Rathi.

☆ Rise in Indian corporate lending signals new investment cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Private investment in India was constrained for years by heavy indebtedness of companies and banks and by weak demand. SBI expects its stock of corporate loans to rise by between 14% and 15% this year and by 12% a year on average in 2023 and 2024. read moreAcross India's banking sector, lending has been rising steadily. Muralikrishna, chief general manager for large corporate lending at Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS), India's second-largest state-owned lender. Dixon Technologies (DIXO.NS), an electronics manufacturer with annual revenue of about 150 billion rupees ($1.85 billion), will receive incentives under the scheme for setting up facilities in five sectors, including electronics. Already, October exports were lower than a year earlier, and Nomura economists cautioned in a note this week that India's investment cycles were closely linked to its export cycles.

☆ India's Oct retail inflation eases, spurs smaller rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The annual retail inflation was 7.41% in September. Food prices, which account for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 7.01% in October, compared with 8.60% in September. Month-on-month retail inflation rose 0.80% in October, compared with the previous month, while retail food inflation rose 1.08% — reflecting inflationary pressures in the economy. Last week, ratings agency Moody's revised down India's GDP growth forecast to 7% in 2022, from earlier estimate of 7.7%, and to 4.8% in 2023. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core inflation rose 5.9% to 6.3% last month, according to three economists' estimates, compared to 6.07% to 6.1% in September.

☆ Indian bank stocks' record rally to continue as balance sheets strengthen
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A man checks his mobile phones in front of State Bank of India (SBI) branch in Kolkata, India, February 9, 2018. This comes at a time when credit growth is at a multi-year high and bad loans across lenders have reduced significantly. The brokerage said private and state-owned lenders that remained better placed to grow include ICICI Bank Ltd (ICBK.NS), HDFC Bank Ltd (HDBK.NS), Axis Bank Ltd (AXBK.NS), IndusInd Bank Ltd (INBK.NS), Bank of Baroda Ltd (BOB.NS) and State Bank of India (SBI) (SBI.NS). Credit growth is at a multi-year high, with an uptick both in retail and corporate loans. "One key concern going ahead remains how the rising interest rate scenario will impact credit growth."

☆ India cenbank to start pilot of digital rupee on Nov 1
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

FILE PHOTO: A man walks behind the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 8, 2022. REUTERS/Francis MascarenhasBENGALURU (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will launch the pilot for a central-bank-backed digital rupee for the wholesale segment on Nov. 1, it said on Monday, identifying nine banks, including top lender State Bank of India, to participate in the project. Settlements in central bank digital currency would reduce transaction costs, the RBI added. Besides SBI, the pilot will include Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, IDFC First Bank and HSBC, the RBI said. The central bank’s plans for a currency in digital form comes amid its staunch opposition of cryptocurrencies.

☆ India cenbank's 2013 playbook to rebuild FX reserves unlikely to work-analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterTo defend the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India has dipped into its forex reserves. "It would be important to rebuild FX reserves for sure. Reuters GraphicsUNPROFITABLE SPREADSBack in 2013, the RBI had offered to swap the U.S. dollars banks had raised via foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits or foreign currency funding for rupees at concessional rates. And while reserves at current levels are adequate to cover more than eight months of imports, analysts say a sustained depletion could cause some concern. Bank of Baroda's Sabnavis suggested floating sovereign bonds, like the Resurgent India bonds (RIBs) India Millennium Deposit bonds (IMDs) in the past, to help boost forex reserves.

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