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Washington CNN —A vast swath of the US economy is showing signs of weakness as unemployment rises to its highest point in more than two years. “When you think of services, a lot of it is driven by the consumer, and consumers are key to where the US economy goes,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told CNN. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, has already moderated over the past few months, government statistics show, and retailers themselves have said they’ve noticed shoppers across the income spectrum change their purchasing behavior. The bottom 60% of households by income accounted for a larger proportion of spending on health care services. These firms have added 168,000 jobs a month, on average, from April through June, according to fresh Labor Department data released Friday.
Persons: , ” James Knightley, “ We’re, Knightley, Scott Hamilton, Gallagher, It’s, Tesla, China’s Geely, Laura He, Elon, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Institute, Supply, ING, CNN, Commerce, Service, Labor Department, EV, Volvo, SAIC, Elon Musk’s, Business, Committee, Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Services, Chicago Fed, Pepsico, Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Brands, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, The, New York Mellon, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, United States, California, Jiangsu, China, Shanghai, Wells Fargo
Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal
"There are better places to make money with a lot lower risk," he added, naming several stocks he likes right now. "Right now, technology stocks are selling at 30 and 40 times earnings. The markets are at 22 times earnings. Trading at 22 times forward earnings, he said the stock offers "a great business at a very good price." The market is 21 times earnings.
Persons: David Katz, CNBC's, Katz, We're, — CNBC's Amelia Lucas Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco Systems Technology, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Starbucks, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services Locations: U.S, Israel
Here are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs reiterates Micron as buy Goldman said investors should buy the dip in the stock following earnings on Wednesday. Jefferies reiterates Nvidia, Marvell and Broadcom as buy Jefferies said it's sticking with its buy rating on all three companies. " Morgan Stanley initiates Viking Therapeutics as overweight Morgan Stanley said the biotech company has "best-in-class potential." Morgan Stanley adds Goldman Sachs to the financials finest list Morgan Stanley added the investment banking giant to its top financials ideas list. Morgan Stanley reiterates Coca-Cola as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating on the beverage giant.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, Apple, Mizuho, KBW, it's, Jefferies, AVGO, KeyBanc, Texas Consolidator, TD Cowen, Grindr, GRND, Morgan Stanley, JPM, Oppenheimer, Kyndryl, CVNA, Truist Organizations: Micron, Apple, Bank of America, Petrobras, of America, Mizuho, Holdings, Grab Holdings, New York Mellon, Deutsche Bank, Emerson Electric Deutsche Bank, Nvidia, Marvell, Broadcom, Energy, Crescent Energy Co, Citi, Arista Networks, Arista, Viking Therapeutics, Macquarie, TPG, Markets, JPMorgan, Bancorp, UBS, Disney, Cable Locations: MU, Brazil, Texas, North America, CA
"The stock price has lagged but we don't see any other catalysts medium term, hence we are moving to the sidelines." Micron shares were down 5% in the premarket. The analyst reiterated a buy rating on Micron stock with a $175 per share price target, implying nearly 23% upside from Wednesday's $142.36 close. He raised his price target to $158 per share price from $138, calling for 11% upside. Arya maintained a buy rating on Micron stock with a $170 per share price target, or about 19% upside moving forward.
Persons: Vivek Juneja, — Brian Evans, TD Cowen, Cowen, John Blackledge, Keefe, David Konrad, Brian Evans, Christopher Danely, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Hari, Vivek Arya, Arya, Caio Ribeiro, Ribeiro, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Micron Technology, Bank of America, Petrobras, JPMorgan downgrades U.S, Bancorp, JPMorgan, U.S . Bancorp, New York Mellon, Bank of New, Bank of New York Mellon, BK, Mellon, Micron, MU, Citi Locations: Brazil, U.S, Bank of New York, CY2025
"Consumers need to understand that the cavalry isn't coming anytime soon, so the best thing you can do is take things into your own hands when it comes to lowering credit card interest rates," said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. But that hasn't deterred credit card issuers from offering generous terms on balance transfer cards, Rossman said. But right now, it's kind of a Goldilocks environment for credit card issuers." It's also an ideal time for consumers to take advantage of all the options credit card issuers are offering. A balance transfer credit card moves your outstanding debt from one or more credit cards onto a new card, typically with a lower interest rate.
Persons: Matt Schulz, Michele Raneri, APRs aren't, Schulz, Ted Rossman, Rossman, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, TransUnion, CNBC, Finance, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Despite the rare event, it’s unlikely the stock market will swing widely because of the economic two-fer, some investors say. Inflation showed signs of cooling in April after staying worryingly warm during the first quarter of this year. America’s rural hospitals keep getting attacked by cybercriminals. Microsoft said in a statement to CNN that it would provide free security updates for eligible rural hospitals, as well as security assessments and training for hospital staff. Google will provide free cybersecurity advice to rural hospitals and start a pilot program to match the firm’s cybersecurity services with the needs of rural hospitals.
Persons: Powell, , Dave Sekera, Alicia Wallace, Sean Lyngaas, Michelle Watson Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CPI, Bank of America, Morningstar, Investors, Traders, Fed, UBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, cybercriminals, Microsoft, Google, White, CNN, White House National Security Council Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, United States
The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations showed improvement of people’s perceptions of their current financial situation as well as their outlook for a year from now. Households’ expectations for highest US stock prices improved to a three-year high. In May, home price expectations were still high, unchanged from the month before; however, inflation expectations dipped — and that’s a good sign for the Federal Reserve. Monday’s survey showed that the three- and five-year inflation expectations were unchanged. When the April CPI showed inflation on a cooler trajectory than it had started the year, the major US stock indexes all surged to record highs.
Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, Survey, Federal Reserve Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York
Here's how 'spaving' could hurt your finances
  + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Natalie Rice | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
"Spaving," or spending more to save more, has become a dangerous habit for cash-strapped Americans amid elevated inflation and mounting debt. Though inflation eased in April, the consumer price index was still up 3.4% from a year prior. Despite higher prices, Americans continue to spend. To that point, credit card debt reached $1.12 trillion in the first quarter, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 'Consumers are hyperreactive to deals'
Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Long before people develop dementia, they often begin falling behind on mortgage payments, credit card bills and other financial obligations, new research shows. What they found was striking: Credit scores among people who later develop dementia begin falling sharply long before their disease is formally identified. The issues start even earlier: The study finds evidence of people falling behind on their debts five years before diagnosis. “The results are striking in both their clarity and their consistency,” said Carole Roan Gresenz, a Georgetown University economist who was one of the study’s authors. Credit scores and delinquencies, she said, “consistently worsen over time as diagnosis approaches, and so it literally mirrors the changes in cognitive decline that we’re observing.”
Persons: Long, , Carole Roan Gresenz, Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Georgetown University Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Equifax
NEW YORK — New York Federal Reserve President John Williams on Thursday said inflation is still too high but he is confident it will start decelerating later this year. With markets on edge over the direction of monetary policy, Williams offered no clear signs on where he is leaning as far as possible interest rate cuts go. Williams called policy "well-positioned" and "restrictive" and said it is helping the Fed achieve its goals. But higher than expected inflation readings have altered that landscape dramatically, and current pricing is pointing to just one decrease, probably in November. Williams said he expects PCE inflation to drift down to 2.5% this year on its way back to 2% in 2026.
Persons: John Williams, Williams, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Federal, Economic, of New, Fed, Commerce Department Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, York, of New York
As buy now, pay later programs become more common, some shoppers are using this payment structure to make ends meet. Such short-term financing plans are the second-most-used form of credit payment among consumers in the U.S., according to a new report by NerdWallet. Meanwhile, 25% said they had used BNPL services in the last 12 months. Far fewer consumers had used a cash advance app (10%) or a payday loan (6%) in the last 12 months, NerdWallet found. An equal share, 8%, expect to use BNPL for necessities in the coming 12 months.
Persons: Elizabeth Warren, NerdWallet, Sara Rathner, it's, Rathner Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, NerdWallet, Finance Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S
Tangible book value , a common yardstick used to value banks, measures shareholder equity minus the value of a bank's intangible assets and goodwill. Following Dimon's comments, CNBC Pro screened for banks in the S & P 500 that also sport a price-to-tangible book value of 2 or more. With a price-to-tangible book value of 2.6, Bank of New York Mellon was the most expensive name on the list. Similar to JPMorgan, Fifth Third Bancorp has a price-to-tangible book ratio of 2. Other names on the list of expensive bank stocks included U.S. Bancorp and Discover Financial Services .
Persons: Jamie Dimon's, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, We're, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Bank of New York Mellon, Vivek Juneja, , Fred Imbert Organizations: JPMorgan, CNBC Pro, Bank of New York, Fifth Third Bancorp, . Bancorp, Discover Financial Services Locations: Monday's, Cincinnati
Wealthy Americans are starting to spend more carefully
  + stars: | 2024-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
A robust stock market coupled with rising home values have boosted Americans’ wealth from 2019 through 2022, according to a Federal Reserve report on household finances. There’s been some evidence of wealthy Americans growing cautious in the latest round of company earnings results. Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson and Raphael Bostic deliver remarks. Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester and Susan Collins deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve release minutes from its May policymaking meeting.
Persons: they’ve, , ” Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, There’s, ” Jonathan Akeroyd, Moet, The Beverly Hilton, Michael Kovac, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, , Jacobson, ’ Ariel Barnes, Barnes, ” Barnes, Baby Boomer, Xers, Matt Egan, Read, Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Susan Collins, Robin, Ralph Lauren, Booz Allen Hamilton, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Hartford Funds, CNN, Burberry, The Beverly, The Beverly Hilton Hotel, Walmart, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Jackson State University, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Palo Alto Networks, Urban Outfitters, NVIDIA, National Statistics, National Association of Realtors, Reserve, Intuit, US Labor Department, Chicago Fed, Global, US Commerce Department, Atlanta Fed, Booz, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, British, Americas, Beverly Hills , California, Jackson , Mississippi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Palo, Ross, Burlington
1 in 7 Gen Z credit card users are ‘maxed out’
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Ariel Barnes plunged into a credit card debt spiral in college, and a decade later she’s yet to escape. Barnes, a manager of gift processing at Jackson State University, has maxed out seven credit cards and is struggling to make minimum payments on $30,000 of credit card debt. Roughly one in seven (15.3%) Gen Z credit card borrowers have maxed out their credit cards, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For instance, the median Gen Z borrower’s credit limit is just $4,500, compared with $16,300 for Millennials and $21,800 for Gen X, the NY Fed said. There’s never a good time to carry a credit card balance, but right now is arguably the worst time.
Persons: CNN — Ariel Barnes, Barnes, ” Barnes, Baby Boomer, Xers, , “ I’ve, Zers, Ted Rossman, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, haven’t, X, it’s, There’s, That’s, Daco, CNN’s Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN, Jackson State University, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, NY Fed, Bankrate.com, Wall, NY, Federal Locations: Jackson , Mississippi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
About 86.6% of Hopper users expect to travel this summer, but 72.5% have not booked their trips yet, according to the outlook. "Leaving a balance in your credit card is not necessarily good for your credit score." Plus you're adding to the expense of that purchase, with average credit card interest rates topping 20%. Book summer travel plans soon: The sooner you book your travel plans, the lower the upfront cost will tend to be. You might still have time to book late summer, early fall trips, she explained.
Persons: Klaus Vedfelt, Hopper, Berg, " Berg, Sally French, Cardholders Organizations: Digitalvision, Getty, United Airlines, American Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Labor Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S
Americans now owe $1.12 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. Keeping up with credit card debt is getting more difficult. "Rent, when you have it, auto loans, utilities, these are all things consumers prioritize ahead of credit cards." As a result, credit card delinquency rates are higher across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found. Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported.
Persons: Charlie Wise, TransUnion's, Young, Wise, TransUnion, Kassandra Martinchek Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Finance, Fed, Urban Institute Locations: TransUnion, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
But economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to set those worries to rest. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March. The encouraging inflation report on Wednesday is unlikely to change those expectations. The report is also likely to be met with relief at the White House after what has been a rough recent run of inflation data for President Biden. Gasoline prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April from March.
Persons: , , Stephen Stanley, there’s, Sarah House, Biden, Jerome H, Powell, we’re, Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander, White, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Most non-retired adults have some type of retirement savings, but only 36% think their savings are on track. New research from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that this retirement savings deficit hasn’t made a dent in when Americans plan to exit, or partially exit, the workforce. “The pandemic-induced change in retirement expectations may continue to affect the labor market in years to come,” they wrote. Yes, but: This is a survey of expectations, researchers at the New York Fed are quick to point out. Just because Americans say they plan to shift to part-time work or retire early, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to.
Persons: Felix Aidala, Gizem Kosar, Wilbert van der, , They’re, Alicia Wallace, delinquencies, Joelle, CNN’s Parija, Donna Morris, Morris, ” Morris Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Census, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Social Security, New, Survey, SCE, triannual, Social, Social Security Agency, Lawmakers, New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, Credit, Walmart, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area Locations: New York, United States, York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, Walmart’s Dallas, Atlanta, Toronto, Bentonville, San Francisco Bay, Hoboken , New Jersey
New data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as household debt balances grew during the first quarter, delinquencies also marched higher. Notably, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency (90 days or more late) climbed to its highest level since 2012. The transitions into delinquency — especially serious delinquency — increased across all debt types, according to the report. Overall household debt grew by 1.1% during the first quarter to $17.69 trillion, according to data that is not adjusted for inflation. Credit card balances dipped (as they typically do post-holidays) by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion.
Persons: delinquencies, Joelle, Delinquencies Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, New York Fed, Credit Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, New
Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed found. Credit card rates top 20%At the same time, credit cards have become one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. "With the Fed likely to keep rates higher for longer, credit card rates should remain high for the foreseeable future," Rossman said. What to do if you're in credit card debt
Persons: Bankrate, Ted Rossman, Rossman Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
NY Fed: One-year inflation expectations rise
  + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNY Fed: One-year inflation expectations riseCNBC's Steve Liesman joins CNBC's 'Money Movers' to discuss an inflation expectations report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBut this trend is especially distinct in the Northeast, a region that's home to particularly impacted metros. By this indicator, a recession started in October, confirmed further by accelerating job erosion, Danielle DiMartino Booth said.
Persons: , Danielle DiMartino Booth, it's, Frances Donald, Donald, We're, Gary Schilling Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, QI, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt, California, Hawaii, New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland , Detroit, Pittsburgh, Northeast, New York City, New York
More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, Business Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt
Gold prices inch higher on U.S. rate-cut bets, Middle East woes
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, steered by bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later this year and safe-haven demand for bullion as Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,324.75 per ounce, as of 0148 GMT after rising more than 1% in the previous session. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that at some undefined point the U.S. central bank will lower its interest rate target. Lower rates increase the appeal of holding non-interest bearing gold.
Persons: that's, Matt Simpson, John Williams, Simpson, Israel, Heraeus Organizations: Co, U.S . Federal, Index, Fed Bank of New York, Investors, Hamas Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Gaza, U.S, Palestinian, Rafah
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