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Bank earnings become a post-Covid parlor game
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Chief among the mysteries is how much interest banks will harvest in 2023 and beyond. Even then, the link between benchmark interest rates and the rate banks actually charge is getting harder to forecast. Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan said that depositors who used to have roughly $3,500 with the bank now have almost four times more. Goldman just laid off 6% of its workforce, but it remains bigger than it was in 2019; Bank of America says it’s still hiring. To that end, the fog is arguably less troublesome for Goldman and Morgan Stanley than it is for JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup (C.N).
LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Business leaders like Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and Microsoft’s Satya Nadella are attending this week’s World Economic Forum. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists give a view from the ground, debate the upbeat tone and explain why politicians stayed home. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Forget inflation, it’s all about earnings
  + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
They noted that over the last three quarters, S&P 500 reactions to earnings beats and misses have soared higher and have now surpassed the one-day market reaction to both CPI inflation and Fed policy meeting decisions. Shares of Disney sank 13.16% last November — their lowest level in more than two years — when they missed earnings estimates. “We see this as a narrative shift in the market from the Fed and inflation to earnings: reactions to earnings have been increasing, while reactions to inflation data and FOMC meetings have been getting smaller,” wrote Subramanian and Kwon. So we can expect some serious volatility over the next few weeks as companies report their fourth quarter corporate earnings. Bad news ahead: The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2022 is -3.9%, according to a FactSet analysis.
Banks’ profit picnic will attract ant invasion
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
JPMorgan (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Citigroup (C.N) all report fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. The good news is that for the year ahead, rising interest rates twinned with growing loan books should more than make up for sliding investment banking fees. The CFPB squeezed a $3.7 billion settlement from serial miscreant Wells Fargo in December for wrongly levying charges on customers. CONTEXT NEWSJPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will report fourth-quarter 2022 earnings on Jan. 13. The CFPB said that Wells Fargo will also allocate over $2 billion in redress to customers.
But not all traders are on the same ride — the large, institutional investors on Wall Street have shuffled away from markets while Main Street’s retail investors are still strapped in. But despite this year’s lackluster market, investors bought $800 billion of Exchange Traded Funds which are baskets of stocks typically purchased by retail investors. However, Main Street is holding on to its stocks while Wall Street is running for the hills. One simple explanation is that institutional investors are responsible for vast amounts of money that belong to other people. “Respect, for retail investors, is in short supply,” wrote Azalea Micottis at Informa Financial Intelligence, in a recent note.
Who will be Wall Street’s un-American idol?
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Europeans have been losing the battle against Wall Street’s cozy club for a decade. Deutsche Bank has done the former. BNP has made smaller steps, buying Bank of America’s prime broking business in 2008, then Deutsche Bank’s in 2019. Even with the best intentions, European banks must contend with their own regulators, which affects their ability to take risk elsewhere. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs together took the top five slots for debt capital markets and merger advisory, as they also did in 2021.
Premarket stocks: The Grinch comes for retailers
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
What’s happening: US retail sales, which measure the total amount of money that stores make from selling goods to customers, fell 0.6% in November, the weakest performance in nearly a year. The Fed factor: November’s report could indicate that consumers are feeling the double-punch of sky-high inflation and painful interest rate hikes from the central bank. This retail sales data adds to recessionary concerns, as it suggests that consumers may be becoming more cautious with their spending. Those increases were spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of harsh interest rate hikes to tame soaring inflation. The Fed announced on Wednesday that it will continue to raise interest rates — albeit by a smaller amount than it has been.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, BoA’s Marci McGregor and Key Financial's Patti BrennanNewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Bank of America’s Marci McGregor and Key Financial Patti Brennan, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the pause in the markets, their respective market outlooks and tech earnings from Zoom.
A key index of Chinese stocks in New York jumped 15% during the same period. Some investment banks even upgraded their China growth forecasts following the policy changes. They want to correct the market’s perception of China’s economic outlook, as President Xi Jinping interacts with global leaders at G20,” it said. “I don’t think the long-term appetite for China and Hong Kong shares will return so quickly. The Nasdaq Golden China Index, a popular index tracking Chinese companies in New York, has plunged more than 33% so far in 2022.
The Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Katie Porter, highlighted comments from economists who worry the Fed is moving too aggressively to squash inflation. Yet the lawmakers note that Powell himself has conceded the Fed can’t cure the supply-related problems that have lifted food and energy prices. The Democrats asked Powell to respond by Nov. 14 to a series of questions about just how much economic pain Americans should be bracing for. They also want Powell to detail the breakdown of job loss by sector, gender, race, educational attainment and wage quartile. Powell said last month that no one knows if the Fed’s inflation fight will cause a recession, or how deep that recession might be.
Wall Street sends regulators a poop emoji
  + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
For Wall Street brokerages, one answer is simply to flout it. At many of the firms, even managers whose job it was to enforce those rules were copiously breaking them. The regulators at least didn’t say they’d uncovered anything illegal, though disappearing-message apps and encryption make evidence easy to hide. But it’s still troubling to find widespread, frequent examples of bank employees, many with “global firm-wide leadership” roles, routinely doing something their companies forbid. The SEC fined the firms $1.1 billion, while the CFTC fined the same companies around $710 million.
In his prepared testimony, Moynihan touted the firm's focus on "responsible growth" as critical to its stability and strength. CITIGROUP INCJane Fraser, the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank, was appointed in March 2021. In her prepared testimony, Fraser said the bank had made "significant progress" in divesting from those areas, while supporting institutional clients. U.S. Bancorp is currently the fifth largest bank in the U.S. with $582 billion in assets, and the largest bank outside of the "globally systemic" firms. Rogers describes the bank as "purpose-driven" in his prepared testimony, and highlighted efforts to boost investment in lower income and majority-minority communities.
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