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LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Western central banks have been warned this week not to quit in the final lap of their monetary tightening campaign - the hard yards households and financial markets may now find exhausting. And yet, desperate for their members not to declare premature victory in getting inflation back to 2% targets or sow an assumption above-target inflation will eventually be tolerated, central bank watchdogs are cheerleading a last push. But that's not in forecasts this time around - with U.S. and UK headline inflation rates not back to target by the end of next year and the euro zone not even by then. 'Last Mile' of disinflationBIS chart on speed of disinflation'UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTHS'And the BIS message was echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday. "Monetary policy should continue to tighten and then remain in restrictive territory until core inflation is on a clear downward path," she said.

Persons: that's, Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell's, John Williams, Williams, Joseph Little, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, for Economic Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, Bank's, IMF, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Bank of England, Global, HSBC Asset Management, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Portugal

☆ Economy at critical juncture in inflation fight: central-bank body
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon

☆ Morning Bid: World markets calm after Russia drama
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled. For Russian markets themselves, the rouble slipped to 15-month lows - but it too had been falling last week as oil prices ebbed. Largely now isolated from western investment, Russian stocks fell about 1%. U.S. Treasury yields slipped lower, perhaps with a smidgen of a safety bid from the weekend events helping too. Turkey's lira slid again to record lows after the central bank took steps to simplify rules governing lenders' holdings and foreign deposits after a sharp but underwhelming interest rate rise last week.

Persons: Mike Dolan, uneasily, Vladimir Putin, Leonardo, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wall, Saab, Rheinmetall, Brent, . U.S, Treasury, Bank for International Settlements, HSBC, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Central Banking, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Moscow, Shanghai, Europe, United States, ., Canary Wharf, London, Sintra, Portugal

☆ Central bank body BIS warns world economy at critical juncture in inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called for more interest rate hikes in its 2023 annual report, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Aaron Chown - Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesThe world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. If interest rates get to mid-1990s levels the overall debt service burden for top economies would, all else being equal, be the highest in history, Borio said. Banking crisesThe Swiss-based BIS held its annual meeting in recent days, where top central bankers discussed the turbulent last few months. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

Persons: Aaron Chown, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon

☆ World economy at critical juncture in inflation fight, central-bank body warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". "Very high debt levels, a remarkable global inflation surge, and the strong pandemic-era increase in house prices check all these boxes," the BIS said. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

☆ Why chaos in Russia could spell trouble for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Mark Thompson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

On Saturday, a fellow global energy power, Qatar, expressed “great concern” about the situation in Russia. Any meaningful loss of Russian energy would force China and India to compete with Western nations for supplies from other producers. Libya and Venezuela provide cautionary tales of how civil war and internal political strife can savage energy exports. At just under 10 million barrels per day, it produces about 10% of global crude oil demand. It took a long time for the Russian oil industry to recover from that.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, “ Putin, ”, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Richard Bronze, Matt Smith, Kpler, —, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Brent, Moscow, “, Sonnenfeld, — Sarah Diab, Sharon Braithwaite, Alexandra Peers, Ramishah Organizations: London CNN —, ” Yale, CNN, Western, Energy, Bank for International, BIS, US Energy Information Agency, Council, Foreign Relations Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Moscow, Russia, China, India, Qatar, Americas, Europe, United States, Basel, Asia, Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Soviet Union, London, New York

☆ Polish president signs 'Tusk Law' on undue Russian influence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Opposition figures have nicknamed it Lex Tusk, using the Latin word for law. "In a normal democratic country, somebody who is president of that country would never sign such a Stalin-esque law," PO lawmaker Marcin Kierwinski told private broadcaster TVN 24. CONCERNSThe Polish Judges' Association Iustitia said the law breached European Union values and could prompt more punitive EU measures over democratic backsliding in Poland. Poland's dependence on Russian energy has progressively declined, even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal, allowing the import of non-Russian gas, started when Tusk was in power.

☆ Inflation fight risks central banks' credibility and autonomy, BIS warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - The credibility and independence of central banks around the world is at risk if stubbornly-high global inflation rates are not bought under control, the head of the Bank for International Settlements has warned. Speaking in Brazil, Agustín Carstens, the bank's general manager, said a tough response to inflation was fundamental for maintaining trust in central banks' ability to keep economies on an even keel. "Otherwise, the credibility of monetary policy, and the autonomous central banks responsible for implementing it, will be called into question." Turning back to the inflation battle, he said the process could run into obstacles, particularly as policymakers try to get it back to their preferred sweet spot, which is around 2% for the Fed and other major central banks. "Over the coming years, monetary policy should focus squarely on bringing inflation back to levels consistent with central bank objectives".

☆ Dollar dominance isn't going anywhere. Here are 5 myths about de-dollarization.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The dollar's dominance isn't at risk, three currency experts told Insider. Vocal observers, like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have warned that the threat of de-dollarization is real, as countries like China take measures to supplant the dollar. They debunked five myths and misconceptions that are commonly touted by dollar doomsayers:1. The dollar is losing its stance as the top currency in global tradeThis claim also isn't supported by data. Though the percentage of dollar reserves has slipped, he estimates it would take around 24 years for global dollar reserves to drop another 12%.

☆ Australia inflation slows in Q1, market leans against rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The annual pace slowed to 7.0%, from 7.8%, suggesting inflation had finally peaked after two years of rapid acceleration in costs. For March alone, the CPI rose 6.3% on the year, down from 6.8% in February. Still, core inflation remains far above the RBA's target band of 2-3% and policy makers have been worried it could fuel a price wage spiral absent further tightening. "Headline inflation has peaked, and weaker tradables inflation will contribute to slower inflation over the rest of 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "But we think there is enough momentum in core and services inflation to warrant tighter policy settings, and maintain our expectation for another rate hike in May."

☆ Seagate hit with $300 million penalty for continuing $1 billion relationship with blacklisted firm Huawei, despite U.S. export controls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Rohan Goswami | In Rohangoswamicnbc | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Computer storage company Seagate will pay a $300 million penalty for allegedly continuing an unauthorized $1.1 billion relationship with Chinese technology firm Huawei after the company was added to a U.S. trade blacklist in 2020. Seagate shipped over 7.4 million HDDs to Huawei from Aug. 2020 to Sept. 2021, federal regulators said. Neither Huawei nor Seagate made an apparent effort to hide their relationship, according to federal charging documents. Those lines of credit allowed Huawei to order an "increasing volume" of HDDs, federal regulators said, that Huawei wouldn't have been able to pay for otherwise. Even after export controls were imposed, a senior Seagate executive publicly justified the continued relationship with Huawei, regulators alleged.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 14 (Reuters) - Engineering a soft landing is hard. Blinder posits that the soft landing parameters of avoiding recession completely are too narrow. "To achieve another soft landing under these circumstances, the Fed will have to be skillful indeed," Blinder concludes. The Fed cut rates five months later and the rest is soft landing history. Of these 70 episodes, 41 ended with a hard landing and 29 with a soft landing.

☆ Australia's robust March employment suggests RBA may hike again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Steven Saphore/File PhotoSummary Strong employment, jobless near 50-year lows keep RBA on alertFull-time employment surges, positive for household incomeData suggests strong Q1 inflation, see RBA hike again -analystSYDNEY, April 13 (Reuters) - Australia employment blew past expectations for a second month in March while the jobless rate held near 50-year lows, an unambiguously strong report that suggests the central bank's tightening campaign may not be over yet. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday net employment rose 53,000 in March from February, when they rebounded by a steep but slightly downwardly revised 63,600. The jobless rate stayed at 3.5%, when analysts had looked for a nudge up to 3.6%. Full-time employment surged by 72,200, after a hefty increase of 74,900 the previous month, an encouraging sign for household income. Reporting by Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - As "fragmentation" of politics and economics becomes the new buzzword for a world that appears to be splintering into blocs, the related costs of the new order are only now being totted up. Corporate rethinking of foreign direct investment (FDI) - bricks-and-mortar developments overseas as well as mergers and acquisitions - would make the hit even scarier. And if FDI fragmentation is defined by a permanent rise in cross-bloc barriers to imported investment inputs, the IMF said developments could cut world output by 2% in the long term. "Fragmentation of the global economy will likely put inflation at a higher structural level, and the cost of capital will likely go up, squeezing low-quality and leveraged companies." Reuters GraphicsBIS chart on global trade as share of GDPBCG projections on world trade to 2031The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Exclusive: ICU Medical to compete against GE Healthcare for Medtronic units -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( David Carnevali | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

GE Healthcare and private equity firms Carlyle Group Inc (CG.O) and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), which have been pursuing rival offers separately, are also through to the second round, the sources added. Carlyle is bidding through its newly formed healthcare investment platform Atmas Health, according to one of the sources. Medtronic has been taking offers for its patient monitoring and respiratory interventions businesses even as it presses on with preparations to spin them off to its shareholders. ICU Medical, GE Healthcare, Carlyle and CD&R declined to comment. The patient monitoring technology portfolio includes Nellcor pulse oximetry and BIS brain monitoring, while the respiratory interventions business comprises ventilators and breathing systems.

☆ Morning Bid: Calm returns: Investors switch to bank fundamentals
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaTurbulence in global markets is gradually giving way to stability. A day after regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares moved to scoop up the assets of failed Silicon Valley Bank, brave investors can probably begin to ask, "Is the worst over?" A strong show of confidence is coming from U.S. authorities as bank regulators say the system is sound but rules need review. A recover in U.S. markets, especially in beaten-down bank shares, lifted Asian stocks on Monday while the safe-haven dollar declined. While the analysts expect a continuation of declining credit growth which is consistent with monetary tightening, they don't expect any credit crunch.

☆ Central bank tests spur global instant payment hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - A year of tests run by central banks in Italy, Malaysia and Singapore have spurred hopes for a global instant payments network accessible at the tap of a mobile phone. Current transfers are slowed by the patchwork of more than 60 different instant payment networks, so central banks involved in the new tests have been working on ways to improve the process. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank umbrella body, which helped oversee the "Nexus" trials, said the three countries involved had successfully sent payments between themselves using only mobile phone numbers. Looking ahead, the BIS said further trials would be run by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand with the hope that "Nexus could eventually be implemented globally." Reporting by Marc Jones Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ How bad is the banking crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Spriha Srivastava | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed along with five other central banks announced coordinated action to reassure global banks. To make sense of those acronyms, GFC refers to the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, EZ crisis is the Eurozone crisis of 2009 onwards, temper tantrum likely refers to the taper tantrum of 2013, and the Covid 3/20 shock is when global markets went haywire in the early stages of the pandemic. So, you might be wondering: Just how bad is the banking crisis? "It means the banking crisis we've seen over the past few weeks has started a new chapter rather than reaching its ending." After the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) made it necessary for all European banks to issue CoCo bonds.

☆ Australia central bank tempers hawkish outlook after hiking rates to over decade high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In a dovish step, the central bank dropped a reference to further rate "increases", saying instead that "further tightening" would be needed, suggesting that just one more hike might be enough. Rates have already gone up by a whopping 350 basis points since last May, easily the most aggressive tightening campaign by the central bank in modern history. Speculation was rife that the central bank could temper the forward guidance given recent softer data with unemployment rising, economic growth disappointing and wages not climbing as fast as feared. Gareth Aird, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, sees a risk of the RBA could pause in April. "The reference to assessing 'when' means that the RBA Board has not yet made their mind up around increasing the cash rate in April," Aird said.

☆ US approved 192 licenses for exports to blacklisted Chinese firms early 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Karen Freifeld | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 3 (Reuters) - The Biden administration approved 192 licenses worth over $23 billion to ship U.S. goods and technology to Chinese companies on a U.S. trade blacklist in the first quarter of last year, according to a document released by a U.S. congressional committee on Friday. The 192 licenses granted were out of 242 license applications decided between January and March 2022, a chart showed, and 115 of those approved contained controlled technology. Nineteen, or 8 percent of the total number of applications, were denied, and 31 were returned without action. "This critical U.S. technology is going to the Chinese Communist Party's surveillance and military efforts," he said. BIS also noted that licenses for some well-known Chinese companies are reviewed under policies set by the Trump administration that do not carry presumptions of denial.

☆ Australia retail sales rebound in Jan, but pulse slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales rebounded in January after a surprise plunge in December that owed much to changing spending habits, though the underlining pulse was facing headwinds from high inflation and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 1.9% in January from December, when they dived 4.0%. Government spending also added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, while drags are seen coming from inventories, housing and consumer spending on goods. "It's clear that high inflation and rising interest rates are weighing on consumer spending," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "With spending still rebalancing toward services and weaker fundamentals for consumption growth, we expect retail sales growth will be quite patchy over 2023."

☆ BIS' Skingsley: Central banks best placed to provide trust in payment systems
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBIS' Skingsley: Central banks best placed to provide trust in payment systemsCecilia Skingsley, head of the BIS Innovation Hub, speaks to CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum.

☆ Why the dollar keeps winning in the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The outsized role played by the United States in capital markets, trade and debt reinforces the status quo. Unless the global economy undergoes a complete overhaul, the dollar will remain on top. America may have never “run on Dunkin’”, as the donut-maker’s slogan claimed, but the global economy runs on the dollar. The United States has spurred the search for alternatives by wielding its currency as a weapon against its adversaries. The greenback’s function as the lubricant of global economic activity has another important effect: a stronger dollar curbs global trade.

☆ U.S. approved 70% of export license applications from China in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( David Shepardson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department and other government agencies approved about 69.9% of export license applications involving China in the 2022 budget year, according to written testimony made public ahead of a U.S. House hearing Tuesday. Companies on the Entity List are restricted from receiving U.S.-origin goods and technology. Commerce also maintains the Unverified List (UVL) that requires checks for U.S. technology use. BIS warned in October that unverified users could be moved to the more restrictive Entity List. Estevez said it removed 25 of 28entities from the unverified list after checks in late 2022.

☆ BIS urges central banks to 'get the job done'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Central banks need to "get the job done" when it comes to getting inflation back under control, the Bank for International Settlements has said, urging them to avoid the mistakes of the 1970's by declaring victory too early. The BIS, dubbed the bank for central banks, said it was vital authorities didn't repeat the stop-start cycles of the 1970s when interest rates had to be hiked to painfully high levels after attempts to lower them resulted in an inflation surge. "Central banks have been very, very clear that at this stage the most important aspect is to get the job done," the head of the BIS' Monetary and Economic Department, Claudio Borio, said as part of a quarterly report. The BIS' report also included research showing that rate rises are more likely to cause financial system stress when private debt levels are high, although tougher "prudential policies" can reduce the risk and give central banks more room for manoeuvre. Another section looks at how higher commodity prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate significantly affects the risk of stagflation - weak growth and high inflation - especially in developing market economies.

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