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☆ The stock market will drop 32% in 2025 as the Fed fails to save the economy from a recession, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 will plunge 32% in 2025 as a recession finally hits the US economy, BCA Research predicts. The firm said the Fed will fail to prevent a recession as it takes its time cutting interest rates. And perhaps most importantly, the Fed's plan to blunt any economic decline via interest rate cuts simply won't work. For example, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers is around 4%, compared to current mortgage rates of around 7%. That means even if the Fed cuts interest rates and mortgage rates decline, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers will continue to rise.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin Organizations: BCA Research, Service, Federal, Wall

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Roaring Kitty, Nike flops, inflation on deck
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nike warningShares of Nike plunged 12% in extended trading after the sneaker giant slashed its full-year guidance, anticipating a 10% drop in sales for the current quarter. Roaring Kitty, back againChewy shares experienced a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, soaring as much as 34% following a cryptic post by meme stock influencer Roaring Kitty, before falling back into negative territory.

Persons: Matthew Friend, Nike's, Tim Wentworth, Kitty, CNBC's Michelle Fox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Micron, Nvidia, Treasury, Nike, Walgreens, BCA Research Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Lebanon, Greater China, China

☆ S&P 500 to tumble 30% as recession hits later this year, says BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. stocks are set to drop more than 30% as a recession hits the U.S. economy in the coming months, BCA Research predicts. We conservatively expect the S & P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession," Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin wrote in a note Tuesday. The calculation is conservative because it assumes that S & P 500 revenue rises in line with nominal gross adjusted product, he explained. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500's one-year performance BCA Research said it sees several feedback loops that will weaken the economy. Absent "overwhelming evidence" of an imminent recession risk, the central bank will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively, he said.

Persons: Peter Berezin, Berezin, JPMorgan's Dubravko Organizations: Research, Tech, Wall, CNBC

☆ From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession, here's a roundup of recent high-profile bear forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.

Persons: —, they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall

☆ I don't see the science of the argument that Japan's corporate governance has improved: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI don't see the science of the argument that Japan's corporate governance has improved: StrategistGarry Evans from BCA Research shares his contrarian view on investing in Japanese stocks.

Persons: Garry Evans Organizations: BCA Research

☆ BCA Research sees bitcoin at $100,000 in the long run, says 'non-confiscatability' makes it the new gold
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin 's gold-like ability to resist any form of seizure makes it a valuable asset for the long term, according to BCA Research, which calls for the world's largest cryptocurrency to eventually rally to more than $100,000. "The bitcoin price will rise well into the $100,000s as the market value for non-confiscatability grows substantially and bitcoin's share of this market grows substantially," Montreal-based BCA Research said. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $73,000 on March 14, rising more than 70% this year. The introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs this year and the tightening bitcoin supply ahead of the late April " halving " have driven the price of the cryptocurrency up. "The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability," BCA said.

Persons: Bitcoin, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, bitcoin, Bullion, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BCA Research, Research, BCA Locations: Montreal

☆ What a Trump 2.0 Economy Would Look Like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +10 min

Overall, the Biden economic plan draws less than favorable reviews from voters. So, too, are promises of more tax cuts and a sharp curtailment of immigration. Trump was upset in 2019 that Powell was not doing enough to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. The Trump tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, giving a second Trump administration the opportunity to fight that battle again. “A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said.

Persons: Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, There’s, ” Trump, it’s, ”, Patrick Horan, “, Tony Soprano, Patrick Kilbane, ” Kilbane, “ Trump, ” George Calhoun, Calhoun, ” Matt Gertken, Alex Nowrasteh, ” Michael Clemens, Clemens, Jerome Powell, Powell, Xi Jinping, Maria Bartiromo, reappoint Powell, Steve Mnuchin, ” Maxime Darmet, Darmet, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Manila ”, Trump, CNBC, Monday, White, George Mason University, Ullmann Wealth Partners, Republican Party, Senate, Affordable, Quantitative, Stevens Institute of Technology, TikTok, Democratic, BCA Research, Labor, CATO Institute, Peterson Institute for International, University of Colorado, Federal Reserve, Federal, Biden, Fox Business, Trump Cabinet, House, Allianz Research, Biden Administration, U.S, Allianz Trade, Congress, GOP Locations: Manila, COVID, China, U.S, America, France

☆ Wall Street will try to maintain AI-fueled momentum in the final week of February, as inflation concerns linger
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

In the final week of February, Wall Street will strive to maintain its AI-fueled rally even as economic concerns linger and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is on deck. But many worry the writing is on the wall for these market leaders as economic and inflation risks linger. The 'lone cloud' of inflation The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will also be released in the week ahead. Investors are concerned that sticky inflation will mean that the Fed will hold onto its higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Next week will also be the final week of February, with stocks headed for another strong month of gains.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Patrick McDonough, Europe's, PGIM's McDonough, McDonough, Charlie Ashley, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, Ashley, John Williams, TJX Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Catalyst Funds, BCA Research, CPI, PPI, Dow, New, Dallas Fed, Fidelity National Information Services, Richmond Fed, eBay, Enterprise, Cruise Line Holdings, New York Federal Reserve Bank, York, Monster Beverage, Paramount Global, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Autodesk, Body, Hormel, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Lowe's, Chicago, . Kansas, Michigan

☆ Megacap U.S. stocks are carrying the rest of the world. Here are the risks, and where to look for diversification
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France

Wholesale prices spiked in January, rising 0.3% and above expectations in yet another sign that maybe inflation is proving harder to put to rest than the markets and the Federal Reserve had hoped. Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly increase in both the overall producer price index – a measure of prices paid by businesses – and the core, which leaves out often volatile energy and food costs. Increases in shelter costs accounted for more than two-thirds of the increase in the main index, although food prices also increased while energy costs fell. Investors had bought into the notion of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May, but that was called into question by the stronger-than-expected news on inflation. “When will the recession start?” asks Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in a report out Friday morning.

Persons: ”, Clark Bellin, John Ingram, Chris Giamo, Giamo, “, Peter Berezin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, CPI, Dow Jones, Investors, ”, Crestwood Advisors, “, TD Bank, BCA Research Locations: U.S

The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.

Persons: ”, BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, “, Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, “ Locations: U.S

☆ U.S. tech to see mixed results in 'AI gold rush,' says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. tech to see mixed results in 'AI gold rush,' says strategistDhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, gives his outlook for U.S. tech giants' earnings as they seek to capitalize on AI.

Persons: Dhaval Joshi Organizations: BCA Research

☆ The U.S. is at a historic level of polarization, says BCA Research's Matt Gertken
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. is at a historic level of polarization, says BCA Research's Matt GertkenMatt Gertken, Senior VP & Chief Geopolitical and US Political Strategist at BCA Research, discusses the U.S. government's latest funding bill and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Persons: Matt Gertken Matt Gertken Organizations: BCA Research

Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

Wholesale inflation fell by 0.1% in December, capping a year in which the rate of price increases dropped sharply, according to a report from the Labor Department released on Friday. The producer price index for all of 2023 came in at 1% compared to 6.4% in 2022. No indication of inflation at the wholesale level,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, posted on social media. A lot will depend on how the economy performs this year after putting in a strong performance in 2023. Wages are increasing and now running higher than the level of inflation, giving support to consumer spending.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, ”, Jeffrey Roach, ” “, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Ian Bremmer, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, ” Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, LPL Financial, BCA Research, Fed, U.S, Global Affairs, Goldman, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, JPMorgan Locations: Red, Iranian, Asia, U.S, Ukraine

☆ Euro zone inflation sinks to 2.4%, below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, flash figures showed Thursday. Inflation in the euro zone's largest economies, Germany and France, has dropped to 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. ECB officials have repeatedly stressed that it is too early to declare victory over price rises in the 20-member euro zone bloc, as they monitor potential pressures from wage increases and energy markets. Separate data released by statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday showed that unemployment in the euro area remained at a record low of 6.5% in October, despite a contraction in the euro zone economy in the third quarter. "For the ECB, signs of an imminent victory on inflation are mounting," Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, said in a note, adding that some of the impact from existing monetary tightening was yet to be felt.

Persons: Ying Tang, —, Mathieu Savary, Bert Colijn Organizations: Aachen, Getty, Reuters, European Central Bank, Energy, ECB, BCA Research, Eurostat, ING Locations: Aachen, Germany, France, European

The economy was even hotter in the third quarter than initially believed, according to an update Wednesday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Increased investment and government spending drove the higher estimate. in 3Q23, up from initial estimate of +4.9% … personal consumption revised lower while business investment revised higher,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, posted on social media. “Ultimately, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic helped boost consumer spending and delay the onset of recession,” BCA Research wrote on Wednesday. “However, the tailwind from excess savings is ebbing.

Persons: ann, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Consumers, Monday’s Organizations: Gross, BEA, “, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Research, San Francisco Fed, BCA, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: 3Q23, U.S

☆ The stock market could plunge as much as 27% when the economy finally tips into recession, investment research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's because the US economy remains on track to enter a recession as high interest rates take a toll. A downturn could cause stocks to plummet as much as 27%, the investment research firm predicted. Economists have been warning of a potential recession since 2022, when central bankers began to aggressively raise interest rates to tame high inflation. AdvertisementLending conditions are tightening under the influence of higher-for-longer interest rates, leading some experts to warn of a coming default cycle on the horizon. "Cracks" also appear to be forming in the job market as firms slow their pace of hiring, BCA strategists said.

Persons: — Organizations: Research, Service, BCA Research, Fed, ECB, Deutsche Bank , Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

And gas prices are down around $3 a gallon ahead of this critical week for holiday driving, while mortgage rates have backed off their recent highs. There is little expectation the Fed will raise interest rates in December at its next meeting after being on pause since July and two benign inflation reports last week. Such a benign inflation outcome would increase our conviction that the coming recession will be mild.”It will be a shortened week for economic data and market activity. The week starts with a read on the economy from the Conference Board’s leading economic index. Still, the overriding narrative at the moment is one that sees a slowdown bringing further relief on the inflation front and continued, if weaker, growth ahead for the economy.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Research, US Bond Strategy, Conference, University of

☆ 'No common capital market a big problem for the euro zone,' strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'No common capital market a big problem for the euro zone,' strategist saysMathieu Savary, chief European strategist at BCA Research, dissects the speech of ECB's Christine Lagarde during the annual European Banking Congress.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, ECB's Christine Lagarde Organizations: BCA Research, European Banking Congress Locations: European

The monthly decline in the producer price index was the largest since April 2020, when the country was facing the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding energy and food costs, the core index is now at 2.9% annualized, slightly above where it stood in September. Analysts had predicted a monthly drop of 0.1% and an annual rate of 1.9% for the overall index. It was the second reading in as many days that showed inflation receding closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. The core index, leaving out energy and food costs, came in at 4%.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, John Sedunov, ”, Jerome Powell, “, Wells, Dan North Organizations: of Labor Statistics, “, Analysts, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Dow Jones, Research, Villanova University, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Census, North America, Allianz Trade, Consumers Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ Europe’s shrinking stash heralds economic trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the interest they earned on their assets increased from 16 billion euros to 66 billion euros in the same period. As a result, euro zone firms’ net interest was negative 19 billion euros in the second quarter of 2023. These financial gains may have helped euro zone growth. A further 700 billion euros matures in 2026. Homeowners with mortgages, which account for around 27% of euro zone households, are yet to feel the brunt of higher rates.

Persons: That’s, Mathieu Savary, Gross, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB, BCA Research, Oxford Economics, International Monetary Fund, Oxford, IMF, Thomson Locations: Oxford, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United States, China

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, weak data hurts euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. "If you look at the percentage of currencies that have been down versus the dollar over the last 26 weeks, it was approaching 100%, and data also showed very long dollar positioning ... Traders are now pricing in only a slim chance of a further interest rate increase by the Fed and see three 25-basis-point rate cuts by next November. The euro fell 0.20% to $1.0695 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, greenback, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, . Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, U.S, Bannockburn, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, euro dented by weak data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The dollar index which tracks the U.S. unit against six main peers, was up 0.37% at 105.64. If that continues, he added, attention will turn to how long to keep interest rates at current levels. The euro fell 0.37% to $1.0677 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Carol Kong, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, Minneapolis, . Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Tokyo, London, Singapore

Tuesday data showing a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September contributed to the euro's weakness, said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial market analyst at City Index. The euro, like most other currencies, gained sharply on the dollar last week as a series of data points - most notably U.S. data from Friday showing job growth slowed in October - sent the U.S. unit lower. The dollar fell 1.4% last week, its steepest decline since mid-July, a sharp reversal after a recent run higher. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead to control inflation. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fiona Cincotta, Chester Ntonifor, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, Kong, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Sam Holmes, Miral Fahmy, Edmund Klamann, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, PMI, Federal, Treasury, BCA Research, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, Bank, Australian, Commonwealth Bank of, Aussie, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, LONDON, U.S, Australia, Tokyo, Singapore, London

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