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Overall inflation has moderated from June's pandemic-era peak over 9% but remains higher than any point since the 1980s. watch now"The pervasiveness of inflation is an ongoing issue," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Inflation a byproduct of supply, demand imbalancesConsumer prices began rising at a rapid pace in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown. Goods inflation has retreated but has since spread to the services sector largely due to business' high demand for workers, economists said. The Fed is trying to manufacture a so-called "soft landing," whereby by inflation slows but the economy doesn't tip into a recession.
US stock futures rally as Fed acts to stabilise banks
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Analysts noted that, importantly, the Fed would accept collateral at par rather than marking to market, allowing banks to borrow funds without having to sell assets at a loss. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.3%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 17% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. The dollar eased 0.4% on the Swiss franc , while the euro firmed 0.4% to $1.0690 as short-term U.S. yields dropped.
The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.1%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 28% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. That, combined with the shift to safety, saw yields on two-year Treasuries dive 47 basis points on Thursday and Friday to stand at 4.58%, a long way from last week's 5.08% peak. Treasury 10-year bond futures added another 6 ticks on Monday, having been up over 20 ticks at one stage in hectic early trade.
Those with money at the bank will have full access starting Monday. The Treasury Department designated both SVB and Signature as systemic risks, giving it authority to unwind both institutions in a way that it said "fully protects all depositors." The Fed facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. The SVB failure was the nation's largest collapse of a financial institution since Washington Mutual went under in 2008. Authorities had spent the weekend looking for a larger institution to buy SVB, but came up short.
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The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of manufacturing and services exports stuck in contraction territory in November. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. The overall decline in consumer goods imports is in line with slowing demand for goods because of higher borrowing costs. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October.
Weak U.S. goods exports weigh on trade deficit
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The second straight monthly widening in the trade gap was partly driven by a shift in pharmaceutical products trade, with exports of these goods falling sharply and imports surging. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October. A smaller trade deficit was one of the main factors behind the rebound in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.
With inflation cooling considerably in October, economists estimate real retail sales increased 0.9% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.6%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.7% last month. Data for September was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Core retail salesCore retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.
U.S. retail sales increase solidly in October
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Summary Retail sales increase 1.3% in OctoberCore retail sales rise 0.7%; September sales revised upWASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting consumer spending picked up early in the fourth quarter, which could help to support the economy. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.6%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.7% last month. Data for September was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported.
On an annual basis, the headline index reading fell 18.8%, while the current conditions measure was off 21.5% and the future expectations measure slid 17%. The University of Michigan release comes a day after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, below the 0.6% estimate. "For low-income households in particular, higher prices for essentials limit discretionary spending, crimp savings, and contribute to higher credit card debt." Inflation expectations edged higher in the month despite October's CPI reading, which showed that year-over-year prices rose 7.7%, compared to 8.2% the previous month. The sentiment index reached its historic low in June as worries accelerate that the U.S. already was in recession or heading for one.
"For the U.S. economy, a developed economy, that's very respectable, slightly above average," said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult, a data research company. watch nowWhy it may be 'a chilly winter'That GDP expansion marks a rebound from a deceleration in both Q1 and Q2. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth meets the common definition of a recession — though the National Bureau of Economic Research, generally considered the arbiter of downturns, hasn't officially declared one. "Bottom Line: This may be the strongest and only positive print on GDP growth we see for a while," Swonk wrote. "We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year."
GDP gains also came from increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. Declines in residential fixed investment and private inventories offset the gains, the BEA said. The underlying picture from the BEA report showed an economy slowing in key areas, particularly consumer spending and private investment. Consumer spending as measured through personal consumption expenditures increased at just a 1.4% pace in the quarter, down from 2% in Q2. Earlier this year, the Fed began a campaign of interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation.
U.S. Q3 GDP rise burnishes soft landing case
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth rebounding at a 2.4% rate. Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“GDP was a weak bounce from the negative prints in Q1 and Q2. The Fed wants to see pain on Main Street.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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