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At last, bitcoin has broken out of a tight trading range, potentially heralding greater highs from here. Investors should expect higher lows and higher highs in the bitcoin price over the next few months, chart analysts say. Wald said he's eyeing the 200-day moving average of $28,000 as a potential new support level while bitcoin runs into key retracement levels of its 2021-22 decline. Many chart analysts considered the previous support level to be about $25,000. For Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts.com, bitcoin's former resistance level of roughly $31,000 could now become support, with the next resistance level ranging as high as $47,000 to $48,000.
Persons: bitcoin, Bitcoin, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, it's, " Wald, he's, Jonathan Krinsky, Julius de Kempenaer, de Kempenaer, Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC
The stock market is showing signs of shaking off its late summer slump, paving the way for a potential year-end rally. The S & P 500 is up more than 3% since Oct. 3 and has risen comfortably above its 200-day moving average near 4,200. And other indexes that try to better represent the entire market than the S & P 500 are showing weakness, according to a Monday note from Strategas strategist Chris Verrone. "These have been very messy charts, but both the equal-weight S & P and the Russell 2000 are again back to negative standing in our proprietary trend model," Verrone said. "The S & P 500 continues to track its seasonal tendency as well.
Persons: JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Jonathan Krinsky, Chris Verrone, Russell, Verrone, Verrone's, Jason Trennert, Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Gretz, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, " Wald, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall, Nasdaq, Wellington, CNBC Locations: U.S, uptrends
The technical trade: Coterra Energy, CME Group, & Zscaler
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe technical trade: Coterra Energy, CME Group, & ZscalerAri Wald, managing director and head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the technical support for Coterra Energy, CME Group, and Zscaler.
Persons: Zscaler Ari Wald, Oppenheimer Organizations: Coterra Energy, CME Group
The S&P 500 is down more than 3% this month, on pace to snap a five-month winning streak. Go back 20 years and the performance gets worse: The S&P 500 has averaged a monthly 0.1% loss in that time. The S&P 500 has averaged a 0.5% loss in September over the past 20 years. Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1% each September. "For S&P 500 levels, we see 4,400 as the start of support (50-day average) that extends down to 4,200 (Feb.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Wall, , Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, China's, Ed Yardeni, we're Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Wall, Garden Holdings, Hang, Yardeni Research Locations: China, U.S, Hong Kong
The August sell-off has stocks testing some key technical levels, spurring investors to watch where equities will go next. Now, investors are watching to see where the S & P 500 goes next. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year The strategist said this threshold is a key support as it's a convergence of several trends in the market. The S & P 500 fell to roughly 3,800 in March before resuming its march upward. A combination of technical factors imply that the S & P may test the 4,200 level but might not break significantly below that."
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: China
Bitcoin tumbled to finish the week after many weeks of stillness in the market, and chart analysts say it's possible this could be just the beginning. Bitcoin also broke its 200-day moving average of $27,300, which could signal an impending downtrend. A range emerges between $25,000 and $30,000 Bitcoin has been here before. The $25,000 level was a key resistance threshold from last summer through March of this year after bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 in its banking crisis-fueled rally. Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton puts the next downside target a little higher at $25,200, with a secondary target level of $20,600.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Julius de Kempenaer, de Kempenaer, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Katie Stockton, Stockton Organizations: Elon, SpaceX, CNBC, BlackRock, BTC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is still runway for the energy sector breakout, says Oppenheimer's Ari WaldAri Wald, managing director and head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the breakout in the energy sector, tips for locating what stocks are driving the structural shift in the market, and the case for Marathon Petroleum.
Persons: Oppenheimer's Ari Wald Ari Wald, Oppenheimer Organizations: Marathon Petroleum
Last week's hiccup in the stock market rally could expand into a seasonal slump, according to Wall Street technical analysts. The S & P 500 fell 2.27% last week for its worst week since March, closing at 4,478.03. Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said in a note to clients dated Saturday that the market is "developing as a textbook seasonal correction." The S & P 500 is still up more than 16% year to date even after last week's decline. In fact, a 5% pullback from Tuesday's close in the S & P would take you just shy of the August '22 highs," Ginsberg said.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Wald, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Jonathan Krinsky, SPX, BTIG's Krinsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Street, Nasdaq, Investment, Twitter, Wolfe Research
Three-Stock Lunch: BX, CRWD & APTV
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree-Stock Lunch: BX, CRWD & APTVAri Wald, Oppenheimer managing director, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss three stocks: Blackstone, Crowdstrike and Aptiv.
Persons: APTV Ari Wald, Oppenheimer
The S & P 500 is up 15% this year. History shows just the opposite happening: In years when the S & P 500 has a particularly strong first half, it tends to close strong as well. Here's an example: The S & P 500 has been up 15% or more in the first half of the year 10 times since 1980. The S & P 500 is where most of the money is Regardless: the simple fact is the vast majority of the investing public is invested in the stocks in the S & P 500, and particularly the S & P 100. A slightly different measure of a market advance: 61% of the S & P 500 are above their 200-day moving average.
Persons: You've, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, what's, Christian Kopf Organizations: Tech, Nasdaq, Financial Times, Union Investment
The S & P 500 is flashing a "rare signal" that suggests the market rally has some legs, Bank of America says. He noted it's only the 25th time that the broader index notched a new 52-week high after a long pause of 300 or more calendar days between 52-week highs. "And what it does suggest is that the S & P should have stronger-than-average returns going out from 10 days to a year, and even two years later." Of the previous 24 signals, the S & P 500 notched a double-digit gain 16 times. For example, while the S & P 500 has notched a new 52-week high, only a small percentage of the index has managed the same milestone, which suggests narrow leadership.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, it's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky Organizations: Bank of America Locations: United Kingdom
Nvidia shares are on a tear this year as the chipmaker asserts it dominance and cements itself as the one to beat in the AI arms race. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia shares in 2023 Wall Street analysts and investors remain confident in the long-term trajectory of the stock, but say its latest jaw-dropping surge sets Nvidia up for a short-term pullback. Overbought conditions and a short-term pullback Despite Nvidia's jaw-dropping print, most near-term momentum indicators show the stock is overbought. Even so, Wald suggests investors consider buying on any pullback and using market dips to sell relatively weaker positions and buy Nvidia. Consolidation in megacaps Nvidia isn't the only big technology giant Wall Street's cooling on at least in the near-term.
Persons: Paul Meeks, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Wald, Janney Montgomery Scott, Dan Wantrobski, Katie Stockton, tailwinds, Price, Microsoft's, Meeks, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Independent Solutions Wealth Management, Street, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple Locations: Tuesday's
3-Stock Lunch: GOOGL, DD & SCHW
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email3-Stock Lunch: GOOGL, DD & SCHWAri Wald, Oppenheimer managing director, joins ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss three stocks: Alphabet, Dupont De Nemours and Charles Schwab.
Bank stocks could be due for a rally, if history repeats itself. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which is focused on regional banks, climbed 6.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , a fund that tracks financial stocks more broadly, advanced 2.5%. The KRE was down more than 1% on Monday as regional bank stocks were once again under pressure. Notably, closely watched PacWest was able to avoid the regional bank downturn, adding 10% on Monday after surging almost 82% Friday.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average 's year-to-date move into the red on Thursday may signal more choppy, range-bound trading ahead, technical analysts say they don't think it's an omen for new multi-year lows. Chart experts say the closely followed blue-chip Dow Jones average could test long-term moving averages. .DJI YTD mountain The Dow Failing to hold above its 200-day moving average of 32,707 could mean more downside ahead for the 30-stock average, said JC O'Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth MKM. "On average the stocks have an aggregated [earnings] surprise of nearly +10%, but the stocks are not being rewarded," O'Hara said of earnings season for Dow stocks thus far. Now, the Dow is the only one of the three in the red on the year as investors favor growth stocks over value.
How to trade three stocks moving higher today: GM, NCLH, and ON
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow to trade three stocks moving higher today: GM, NCLH, and ONAri Wald, managing director at Oppenheimer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss three stocks making upward moves in today's market.
Bitcoin climbed above $30,000 Monday night for the first time since June – and sustained that level throughout trading on Tuesday. This week's price rally has added to the optimism around bitcoin's recent strength and resilience and interest from new investors – and chart analysts agree the cryptocurrency is in a solid uptrend trend – after posting a 63% loss for 2022. "Specially, following its March breakout above key resistance, price had consolidated sideways for a number of weeks," he said. BTC.CM= ETH.CM= 1Y line Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) over the past year Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton echoed that, saying bitcoin "pushed out of its consolidation phase, following a base breakout in March." The recent breakout level near $1,850 should hold in coming days to keep the momentum going.
The S & P 500, thanks to the outperformance of a small group of technology stocks, enters the second quarter on an upswing. The message is clear: for the moment, the majority of the market returns are being generated by large-cap tech stocks. Back in early February, 75% of the S & P 500 stocks were above their 200-day moving average. Bulls, of course, are hopeful that the banking crisis will be the ultimate blessing in disguise, forcing the Fed to finally slow its rate-hiking campaign, now that it has finally broke something and created a regional banking crisis. "A bullish breakaway hasn't materialized, and the S & P 500 is back in its base," Ari Wald, senior analyst at Oppenheimer, noted over the weekend.
Bitcoin held on to its new highs this week and saw the biggest exchange inflows of the year, but the rally could be dwindling, investors say. Bitcoin's exchange net inflows were the largest of the year and 8.2x larger than the prior week's, suggesting this month's rally was led by retail investors, Citi analyst Alkesh Shah, noted in a separate report Friday. This past month's banking crisis, however, brought a moment of awareness to bitcoin investors that has partly driven the recent rally. "While bitcoin's rally is somewhat extended, the now 40% bounce off the 200-day moving average highlights strength of trend," he said. What the charts say This week, bitcoin briefly dropped to the $26,000 level, almost returning to the key level of $25,200 chart analysts have been monitoring.
Three-Stock Lunch: AMAT, TSLA and EQT
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree-Stock Lunch: AMAT, TSLA and EQTAri Wald, managing director & head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss three stocks making big moves today: Applied Materials, Tesla, and EQT Corp.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a surge in stocks when he spoke Wednesday , taking the S & P 500 into a new range. Redler expects a near term peak for the S & P 500 could be around 4,200-4,220. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide to a low of 3.35%. He's watching the growing number of three-month highs in the Russell 1000 and S & P 600 , which are now outpacing the new highs in the S & P 500. The VIX is based on puts and calls in the S & P 500.
Simply buying the worst performers of 2022 seemed to have paid off for investors in January. Discovery have seen the largest bounce back in shares of the group, up 54% after a 60% tumble in 2022. Semiconductor stocks took a beating in 2022 as companies grappled with slowing demand. Of the names included in the list, Lumen Technologies , Epam Systems and Dish Network are the only three downtrodden 2022 stocks bucking the worst-to-first trend. That includes an improvement in long-term trend following indicators, more widespread breakouts, and greater improvement in market breadth, which is currently overbought, she said.
Three-stock lunch: SoFi, Lucid and Goldman Sachs
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree-stock lunch: SoFi, Lucid and Goldman SachsAri Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss three stocks moving higher today, the reasons behind the positive gains, and the durability of the action.
Earnings : More than 20% of the S & P 500 will report this week; by next Friday, 50% of the S & P will have reported. Craig Johnson at PiperSandler noted that 66% of all S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. It's not just the big-cap S & P 500 that is advancing: So are small-caps. The S & P High-Beta ETF is up 16% this month, at its highest levels since April of 2022. If that holds, it's the first positive January for the S & P 500 since 2019, when it was up 7.9%.
The U.S. dollar surged in 2022, with the dollar index hitting a peak of $114.78 in September. But since September, the dollar index has slipped and is now nearing a range that could lend support to the S & P 500 . The dollar index nearing 100 is a key number that many technical analysts are watching – it was named one of the big numbers for 2023 by Oppenheimer. Still, she's also been watching the dollar's major corrective phase and per DeMARK Indicators sees an active signal on the dollar index that flashed on Jan. 13. .DXY YTD line DXY YTD "What it suggests is that from the support area, we should see a relief rally or a dollar bounce," she said, adding that this would mark a sentiment shift around the dollar.
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