Given this, JPMorgan projected how the S & P 500 could trade on the basis of the core CPI reading, breaking out five possible scenarios.
If the S & P 500 falls by more than 2%, it would be the first such decline in more than a year, since February 2023, the note read.
"The ultimate outcome may be a removal of all 2024 rate cut expectations with increased implied probability of rate hikes," JPMorgan said.
JPMorgan anticipates the S & P 500 could either advance a quarter percentage point, or lose as much as 1%.
2.5% chance below 0.10% — A downside surprise in core inflation could spark a rally in the S & P 500 in the range of 1.5% and 2%.
Persons:
Dow Jones
Organizations:
Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Core CPI